Closed $HOOD @ $97.1 and shifted the size to $TER @ $98.02.

Still bullish on $HOOD in general, but I want to reduce concentration to crypto given that I still have my crypto portfolio in addition to equity names like $SBET & $3350.JT.

$TER is a good bet meanwhile.

https://defensescoop.com/2025/07/10/hegseth-memo-unleashing-us-military-drone-dominance-deadlines/

Hegseth directive on ‘unleashing U.S. military drone dominance — moved $AVAV +4% in the aftermarket.“Hegseth referred to uncrewed systems as “the biggest battlefield innovation in a generation.”

Seems like we got the US military’s approach right too. Low cost suicide drones are the focus, which AVAV is renowned for. Switchblade 600 has the leading share in the U.S. army and allied nations. “By the end of 2026, “every squad” is to be equipped with “low-cost, expendable drones,” with priority going to Indo-Pacific combat units.”

AVAV is one of my highest conviction play in 2025, and I’m sized accordingly so. The king of military drones, with battle-tested capabilities and the strongest sales access to the Pentagon. Strong existing pipeline, with multiple high-potential $1b+ product launches that are likely to win new contracts. The name will benefit from Anduril’s IPO too; last private round was $30.5bn.

$SBET +37% to $19.8, from our first buy 3 days ago. Might make sense to trim some here depending on your risk appetite — though there can still be room to run as mNAV is still low at 2.15x.

Holding ETH price constant, SBET price can rise through expansion of mNAV, which can be attained if 1) ETH is recognized as a viable alternative treasury asset to BTC — in terms of usecases, volatility, return, liquidity etc, and 2) SBET convinces market of its ability to continue raising funds — which ties back to (1) and Joseph Lubin’s reputation

https://x.com/secdef/status/1943401411431026977?s=46

See video for more. $AVAV is also getting more Wall St coverage lately — GS initiated 2 weeks ago, Cantor Fitzgerald (ties to Howard Lutnick in Trump admin) initiated last week

Added more $AVAV @ $247.23

Drone companies popped off yesterday. Good to see quality companies leading the pack; suggests momentum to the rally

Shifted $3350.JT position @ $1561 Yen to $8473.JT @ $ $5488 Yen

Thesis is the same as SBET; little upside left for BTC denominated treasury copycats — difference is 8473.JT is a Ripple play with their 9% equity stake. I can see a ripple labs IPO soon, and if it comes it will perform well imo.

https://x.com/afpost/status/1944687749585314081?s=46

$AVAV

$SBET is an absolute monster. +86% in less than a week, had to trim some @ $26.81.

Added to $8473.JT @ $5700 Yen

While we’re banking on SBET and the likes, I think treasury companies moving out of BTC into altcoins is the start of the euthanasia rollercoaster for these “strategy” companies.

We can participate while the music is playing, but impt to remember to not drink our own kool-aid. As they say, you can’t go broke taking profit.

Added $MP, average cost basis @ $52.04. Small cap, VERY speculative, top of the chart etc — so smaller position and a mid to long-term hold. Initially added @ $46.5 on DoD deal, and sized up here @ $53.8 - $54.6 on Apple investment news.

Rare earth is going to drive the electronic appliances of the future, while its supply gets choked from trade tensions. MP reminds me of $VST — commodity manufacturer, with a commodity that has turned into gold overnight.

$OUST making fresh 52-wk highs, +21% from our initial buy @ $22.09 to $26.89

Eyes also on $ETH/BTC ratio, which looks like it’s on the verge of breaking out despite the BTC weakness today. If the breakout does come, it’s typically a bat signal for risk-on in altcoins — would be positive for $SBET & $8473.JT.

Trimmed 1/8 of the SBET position yesterday, and will be holding the rest of the position for the (hopeful) breakout.

On $SBET; why I think there’s still room to run. Largest ETH treasury holdings, with the lowest mNAV out of ETH treasury companies. Joe Lubin’s connection with the ETH foundation is also an edge, allowing SBET to buy potentially discounted ETH from the foundation at sub market prices — unlike MSTR that has to blast every BTC top.

Another on my watchlist is BMNR; who has Tom Lee and Peter Thiel as cheerleader. IMO, mNAV is strongly influenced by the market’s perception of the ability of the company to continue raising gigantic amounts of money in the future, hence cheerleaders are impt for these strategy companies. Wanted to get in BMNR in the overnight market, but it popped off without me — so will look to add if it dips on Friday when the private round vests.

Added $GLXY @ $22.53

GLXY has businesses in all the right verticals in this current narrative cycle; data centers and crypto. In crypto, they have strong deal flows with regard to the treasury companies, hence getting the oppy to take part in private placements for the likes of SBET @ $6~ and BMNR @ $4~. The access to deals comes from their crypto investment banking/advisory arm.

At $9.5bn mcap, the stock hasn’t really seen much appreciation yet despite the hype for crypto companies. Thus R/R looks good going into their earnings on Aug 5th, where they’ll probably talk about the ROI on their SBET and BMNR deals.

On $8473.JT, the clear catalyst is that the XRP <> SEC court case will likely conclude by Aug 15. Once the regulatory overhang is cleared, it paves the way for Ripple Labs to IPO — though this is just speculation at this point. I think it’s likely an IPO comes, just not firm on the timeline.

Most recent shareholder tenders placed Ripple Labs at ~$25bn equity valuation in Jun 25, but I think the co could fetch much higher in the public market looking at CRCL’s performance. Not forgetting that Ripple Labs sits on 42% of XRP supply, with $14bn of that being liquid as well as an est ~$3bn of cash. XRP is also one of the few interesting altcoins, that somehow manages to suck in new retail and tradfi flows every cycle.

Sold half of $SBET @ $37.8 - $38.5 into $BMNR @ $47.7 on news of their latest buys. Leaving some ammo for tmr’s vesting event

$SBET coming in with a monster raise of $5bn. Very huge raise considering the current mNAV is only at 2.66x. Guess this is reflective of the fact that the ETH treasury space is much more competitive — and no players have a head start similar to MSTR vs copycats.

Hence we’ve decided to own both SBET and BMNR, as I’m honestly not sure which will end up the “winner”.