Pivot Point Capital
912 subscribers
243 photos
2 videos
107 links
*WILL NEVER ASK YOU FOR FUNDS*

Generalist, mostly long, rarely short. Occasionally a lover of unloved assets. Unedited messages.
Download Telegram
Pivot Point Capital
Added long on $COIN @ $270.41 Think this “short COIN/long HOOD” ratio mean-reverts. Wall St is going crazy over stablecoins, as seen from CRCL’s IPO. COIN, USDC’s key distributor, actually receives 50% of CRCL’s interest income from its USDC asset reserves…
Well, in case you’re wondering why $CRCL is 8x from IPO, Wall St is full of hopes and dreams over stablecoins

The catalyst path for the stablecoin payment narrative is still very strong — USDC merchant integrations, venturing into payments & credit cards. And arguably COIN benefits more from USDC adoption than CRCL.

While I remain a skeptic over the long term profitability of USDC revenue, COIN is a high-conviction short/mid-term long for me. First buy was at $270, and have added more at $292, and $306.
Increased current $3350.JT stack by 15% @ $1350 Yen, after trimming @ $1820 Yen
Started a new long on $SBET @ $9.93. VERY very speculative, have traded around this name in the past with good results so taking a small dab here again post the FUD
Pivot Point Capital
No matter the outcome of this event, I think it’s safe to say that there’s an inflection point in warfare modernisation. No longer is it about brute force; tanks rolling up to capitals, with significant loss of lives without any bulging of the territory…
Huge beat by $AVAV, +23% to $238. Strong FY guidance set by mgmt too with record bookings and margins in Q4

“The investments we’ve consistently made in our multi-generational Uncrewed Systems and Loitering Munition Systems products coupled with our strong execution, continue to pay off, as evidenced by significantly higher demand and key strategic wins leading to a record $1.2 billion in total bookings throughout this fiscal year.”

Added more $KTOS @ $41.64 as I view this as a thesis-proofing read through
❤1
Pivot Point Capital
Started a SMALL short position of $CRCL @ $218.35. Cut rest of $HOOD @ $76
Added to $CRCL short @ $214.3. Sized such that a second squeeze would hurt, but still be manageable.

Wanted to short more at >$280 but missed it as was away from desk.
Pivot Point Capital
Huge beat by $AVAV, +23% to $238. Strong FY guidance set by mgmt too with record bookings and margins in Q4 “The investments we’ve consistently made in our multi-generational Uncrewed Systems and Loitering Munition Systems products coupled with our strong…
$KTOS hit us with that $500m offering @ $38.5 in the aftermarket.

Explains why the stock wasn’t moving along with $AVAV. Win some lose some, I’m still holding as this ST stuff doesn’t hurt the thesis
❤2
Pivot Point Capital
Added to $CRCL short @ $214.3. Sized such that a second squeeze would hurt, but still be manageable. Wanted to short more at >$280 but missed it as was away from desk.
Closed $CRCL short @ $202, 6% gain. R/R was off on this one on hindsight, but don’t want to continue picking up pennies in-front of an incoming freight train
Pivot Point Capital
$KTOS hit us with that $500m offering @ $38.5 in the aftermarket. Explains why the stock wasn’t moving along with $AVAV. Win some lose some, I’m still holding as this ST stuff doesn’t hurt the thesis
Added more $KTOS b/w $39.4 - $39.8. Am ok with dilution if it helps the company to grow in a fledging and rapidly competitive field

$AVAV popping off again. Pure-play on drones/drone defense with >80% revenue exposure to drones, vs $KTOS at <30%
Pivot Point Capital
Added long on $COIN @ $270.41 Think this “short COIN/long HOOD” ratio mean-reverts. Wall St is going crazy over stablecoins, as seen from CRCL’s IPO. COIN, USDC’s key distributor, actually receives 50% of CRCL’s interest income from its USDC asset reserves…
$COIN @ $370, continuing its monster run into ATH. +36% from our initial buy @ $271 2 weeks ago, and we have continuously added more @ $292 and $306. I’ve got a good feeling about $COIN so I'm not trimming any yet.

Yesterday’s CRCL > COIN rotation seems like Wall St is waking up to our thesis that USDC adoption actually benefits COIN more than CRCL, given that COIN owns the customers.
👏2
Pivot Point Capital
Added more $3350.JT @ $1460 Yen today
Added more $3350.JT @ $1622 Yen. Almost back to original size before trimming at $18++
Pivot Point Capital
Closed 50% of drone basket on this ($AVAV @ $192, $KTOS @ $43.5, $ACHR @ $9.8), and scaled into more longs for $COIN @ $306, $HOOD @ $76.8 & $OSCR @ $20.5
Added more $HOOD @ $83.5 last Friday in light of their crypto event today. Word on the rumor mill is that they are launching tokenized stocks, or their own chain.
Pivot Point Capital
Good close by $KTOS. Dip from the $500mn offering was erased in a single trading session. Added more @ $40.9 too
$KTOS also finally caught up, +17% from our dip buys and now at $46.5. Will trim some at open to buy more $AVAV as I like the latter more given 1) pureplay on drones, 2) I think their product approach is more logical (low-cost one way suicide drones at $15k replacement cost, vs unmanned aircrafts at $millions), and 3) the lower valuation for AVAV atm.
👏3
Pivot Point Capital
Closed $CRCL short @ $202, 6% gain. R/R was off on this one on hindsight, but don’t want to continue picking up pennies in-front of an incoming freight train
JPM (IPO lead) initiated on $CRCL, with TP @ $80 😂

Stock down to $173 in pre-market. Probably closed the short too early, but all’s good. Watching to see if it affects sentiments on $COIN
Pivot Point Capital
Added more $HOOD @ $83.5 last Friday in light of their crypto event today. Word on the rumor mill is that they are launching tokenized stocks, or their own chain.
So $HOOD ended up doing both, and in addition they’re also launching perps and staking in US and Europe. I think perps is the most incremental and lucrative, and I can see it taking off given how UX-centric the company is + how degen its customers are. Announcement is clearly better than market expected as stock has popped off 10%.

We have some HOOD, but little mixed on the news overall given the higher competition to $COIN. I was positive about COIN launching perps end-July, but seems like that bull case has to be dialed back. Tbh my gut tells me that HOOD will win this perp share over COIN, but we’ll see
Position update:

Trimmed $COIN ~$348 and added to $HOOD ~$95, such that both positions are equal sized

Cut $8473.JT @ $4965 Yen and $SBET @ $9.35

Made use of the dip to add more to $AVAV @ $265.5 and $OSCR @ $21.8