Started a SMALL short position of $CRCL @ $218.35. Cut rest of $HOOD @ $76

Quite the wild weekend in news-flow; 1) US strike on Iran, 2) Iran's threat to close Strait of Hormuz

Somehow our drone basket, mostly made up of $AVAV and $KTOS as core proponents, have formed a natural hedge to the rest of our tech/crypto longs in this geopolitical environment. Hence leaving the drone basket as is, while the key focus for now is on 1) buying the dip on favourite tech names, if it happens ($COIN, $HOOD, $3350.JT, $ACHR), and 2) scaling more into our $CRCL short if it continues squeezing up (>$280 would be fantastic).

Wall St calls Trump TACO (Trump always chickens out), but I actually think that's his strategy. To be so consistently volatile and flipfloppish, that the market starts to be desensitized to his words. Hence, will be looking for the market's desensitized point wrt the Iran-Israel situation over the next few weeks. Note to self is to not get overly bearish and subscribe somewhat to the "nothing ever happens" mindset, learning from April's tariffs episode.

Wrt the Iran situation, think the favorable thing for bulls over the weekend is that the tail risk of US bombing Iran has been partially removed, and both $BTC (risk-on indicator) and $SPX showed resilience through the episode. As markets are forward-looking, the next tail risk that markets are focusing on would likely be the closure of Straits of Hormuz (possible, but I lean towards non-closure atm), or the conflict expanding to militarily involve Russia/China (unlikely imo).

$NVO ending partnership with $HIMS, thankfully we exited last week. Sometimes it’s just luck

Entered long on $OSCR @ $19.88, higher quality telehealth business that may gain share off this HIMS hooha

Iran’s strike on Qatar feels like an off-ramp. Oil, BTC, SPX seems to take it the same way

Closed 50% of drone basket on this ($AVAV @ $192, $KTOS @ $43.5, $ACHR @ $9.8), and scaled into more longs for $COIN @ $306, $HOOD @ $76.8 & $OSCR @ $20.5

Seems like Iran was indeed off-ramping — if so we were right to have sized down on warfare/drone basket longs and size up on speculative tech longs at 2am SGT.

Tho still holding our breath given conflicting reports of missile launches

Missiles still flying from both sides in the last 3 mins to the ceasefire

Increased current $3350.JT stack by 15% @ $1350 Yen, after trimming @ $1820 Yen

Started a new long on $SBET @ $9.93. VERY very speculative, have traded around this name in the past with good results so taking a small dab here again post the FUD

Huge beat by $AVAV, +23% to $238. Strong FY guidance set by mgmt too with record bookings and margins in Q4

“The investments we’ve consistently made in our multi-generational Uncrewed Systems and Loitering Munition Systems products coupled with our strong execution, continue to pay off, as evidenced by significantly higher demand and key strategic wins leading to a record $1.2 billion in total bookings throughout this fiscal year.”

Added more $KTOS @ $41.64 as I view this as a thesis-proofing read through

Added to $CRCL short @ $214.3. Sized such that a second squeeze would hurt, but still be manageable.

Wanted to short more at >$280 but missed it as was away from desk.

$KTOS hit us with that $500m offering @ $38.5 in the aftermarket.

Explains why the stock wasn’t moving along with $AVAV. Win some lose some, I’m still holding as this ST stuff doesn’t hurt the thesis

Closed $CRCL short @ $202, 6% gain. R/R was off on this one on hindsight, but don’t want to continue picking up pennies in-front of an incoming freight train

Added more $KTOS b/w $39.4 - $39.8. Am ok with dilution if it helps the company to grow in a fledging and rapidly competitive field

$AVAV popping off again. Pure-play on drones/drone defense with >80% revenue exposure to drones, vs $KTOS at <30%

$COIN @ $370, continuing its monster run into ATH. +36% from our initial buy @ $271 2 weeks ago, and we have continuously added more @ $292 and $306. I’ve got a good feeling about $COIN so I'm not trimming any yet.

Yesterday’s CRCL > COIN rotation seems like Wall St is waking up to our thesis that USDC adoption actually benefits COIN more than CRCL, given that COIN owns the customers.

Good close by $KTOS. Dip from the $500mn offering was erased in a single trading session. Added more @ $40.9 too

Added more $3350.JT @ $1460 Yen today

Added more $3350.JT @ $1622 Yen. Almost back to original size before trimming at $18++