Adding $ACHR @ $10.55.

Also buying the dip on $IBIT @ $59.5. To me seems like Bitcoin wins either way; escalation (war leads to inflation) or deescalation (animal spirits continue).

Seems to me like Israeli strike was so impactful that maybe there will not be a strong Iranian response because many of their systems were taken out. So risking some here that nothing ever happens

Iran calls Trump

Odds of Iranian regime being toppled also spiked on Polymarket

https://polymarket.com/event/us-military-action-against-iran-before-july?tid=1749917878423

Watching this market. May need a vpn for sg users. Not advocating for prediction bets, but more of an info signal.

No matter the outcome of this event, I think it’s safe to say that there’s an inflection point in warfare modernisation.

No longer is it about brute force; tanks rolling up to capitals, with significant loss of lives without any bulging of the territory line. Instead it’s about drone bases being set up within the enemy’s cities itself - kept secret till it’s ready to preemptively and strategically deactivate the enemy’s strategic weapons and decapitate leadership. We saw it in Ukraine, and saw it here again.

I guess the secondary question here is that there’s two “spheres” to invest in for this theme; does the east or the west’s drone and drone defense systems end up winning?

Nevertheless, gaining more conviction on the drone basket and added $AXON @ $778.5 to it on Friday. Currently made up of $AVAV $KTOS $ACHR $HAG.DE $AXON

New IPO $AIRO drone maker is also on the watchlist, but harder to enter due to the IPO pop

$3350.JT up 20% to $1813 Yen off news of a $210 million USD zero coupon bond issuance. Around ~2x from entry.

The stock continues to be priced off expectations of its ability to continue raising funds to buy BTC (ie its speed of acquiring Bitcoin).

https://x.com/metaplanet_jp/status/1934416667418738774?s=46

Added a little $AIRO @ $31.58 to speculate on the IPO + drone narrative.

Seems interesting for sub $1b and most of its IPO float is sold to long-only/sector-specific firms. Caveat is I do not have a great record w IPOs 😂

Closed 75% at $32.5 for a small gain as decided to cut back some risk.

Trimmed longs across all momo stocks; cut 40% of $HOOD @ $76. Exited fully $TEM $HIMS for small gains.

Cutting risk across most speculative stuff, but still remain very long on drone basket, metaplanet & hood, and other long-term positions. No shorts.

Added long on $COIN @ $270.41

Think this “short COIN/long HOOD” ratio mean-reverts. Wall St is going crazy over stablecoins, as seen from CRCL’s IPO.

COIN, USDC’s key distributor, actually receives 50% of CRCL’s interest income from its USDC asset reserves, but yet COIN has not really gained from the stablecoin hype. Would short CRCL as a pair trade but borrow fees are too high now, so taking the naked long on COIN.

Added $8473.JT (SBI Holdings) @ $4813.8 Yen, after trimming $3350.JT yesterday.

Spinoff of Soft Bank, owns 9% of Ripple Labs (the equity, not the token) and $350mn of $CRCL. If crypto IPOs continue to be popular, this can perform.

Added more $COIN @ $292 in overnight trading, sold 40% more $HOOD @ $78

Started a SMALL short position of $CRCL @ $218.35. Cut rest of $HOOD @ $76

Quite the wild weekend in news-flow; 1) US strike on Iran, 2) Iran's threat to close Strait of Hormuz

Somehow our drone basket, mostly made up of $AVAV and $KTOS as core proponents, have formed a natural hedge to the rest of our tech/crypto longs in this geopolitical environment. Hence leaving the drone basket as is, while the key focus for now is on 1) buying the dip on favourite tech names, if it happens ($COIN, $HOOD, $3350.JT, $ACHR), and 2) scaling more into our $CRCL short if it continues squeezing up (>$280 would be fantastic).

Wall St calls Trump TACO (Trump always chickens out), but I actually think that's his strategy. To be so consistently volatile and flipfloppish, that the market starts to be desensitized to his words. Hence, will be looking for the market's desensitized point wrt the Iran-Israel situation over the next few weeks. Note to self is to not get overly bearish and subscribe somewhat to the "nothing ever happens" mindset, learning from April's tariffs episode.

Wrt the Iran situation, think the favorable thing for bulls over the weekend is that the tail risk of US bombing Iran has been partially removed, and both $BTC (risk-on indicator) and $SPX showed resilience through the episode. As markets are forward-looking, the next tail risk that markets are focusing on would likely be the closure of Straits of Hormuz (possible, but I lean towards non-closure atm), or the conflict expanding to militarily involve Russia/China (unlikely imo).

$NVO ending partnership with $HIMS, thankfully we exited last week. Sometimes it’s just luck

Entered long on $OSCR @ $19.88, higher quality telehealth business that may gain share off this HIMS hooha

Iran’s strike on Qatar feels like an off-ramp. Oil, BTC, SPX seems to take it the same way

Closed 50% of drone basket on this ($AVAV @ $192, $KTOS @ $43.5, $ACHR @ $9.8), and scaled into more longs for $COIN @ $306, $HOOD @ $76.8 & $OSCR @ $20.5

Seems like Iran was indeed off-ramping — if so we were right to have sized down on warfare/drone basket longs and size up on speculative tech longs at 2am SGT.

Tho still holding our breath given conflicting reports of missile launches

Missiles still flying from both sides in the last 3 mins to the ceasefire