Pivot Point Capital
Added $AVAV @ $40.33, $KTOS @ 185.88 and $HAG.DE @ $108.7 as a thematic play on the growing importance of drones in Defense. Ukraine‘s destruction of Russia’s bombers with drones might be a lightbulb moment for this narrative. Planning to hold these 3 plays…
Late news but moving $AVAV. Entry price posted is flipped for the 2 stocks. Gaining more conviction on this LT tailwind the more time I spend researching it.
$ACHR looks like an ok bet too, evTOL manufacturer, partnerships w Anduril/Palantir. Has a retail cult base which is probably impt for these type of "cool" companies
Supply chain bets on drones/evTOL gaining prominence seem interesting too
$ACHR looks like an ok bet too, evTOL manufacturer, partnerships w Anduril/Palantir. Has a retail cult base which is probably impt for these type of "cool" companies
Supply chain bets on drones/evTOL gaining prominence seem interesting too
Pivot Point Capital
Started buying back $HOOD @ $70.87 in pre-m, will continue to add if it goes lower
News that pushed $HOOD up into the close. While I’m skeptical of the feasibility of this, I’m always impressed with the execution of this company. S&P500 inclusion is a matter of time, so personally I don’t see the dip lasting long if execution continues on the right path.
https://x.com/vladtenev/status/1932164762265174206?s=46
https://x.com/vladtenev/status/1932164762265174206?s=46
Pivot Point Capital
#exchangesupdate Closing this trade out at $COIN @$280 (-13.5%), $HOOD @$57 (+61%). I’ve turned bearish on COIN since Jan, and increasingly bullish on HOOD for a lot of reasons: - Most US based customers’ first exposure to crypto is actly through HOOD and…
Over-traded this stock and didn’t make as much as I should on it. Tough lesson on just sitting on my hands and letting compounders compound.
$HOOD’s bear case for me was that their main customers are primarily degenerates that lose their money too quickly, and $HOOD has to invest in marketing to find new customers from a ever-decreasing pie — unlike IBKR.
But that was then and now the mgmt is slowly squashing this bear case with their move into RIAs, credit card subs, and their strong focus on the ongoing intergenerational wealth transfer (I think this part pays off the most in the long-term). And their efforts are working, as active user growth and average deposits/user are both trending well.
I think St fails to see that the RobinHood of 2025 - 2030, is drastically different from the RH of 2021 — when it was the face of the GME scandal. 5 months ago I thought that HOOD might eventually become COIN’s bear case, and today I think HOOD can potentially become IBKR’s bear case in the next 5 years.
$HOOD’s bear case for me was that their main customers are primarily degenerates that lose their money too quickly, and $HOOD has to invest in marketing to find new customers from a ever-decreasing pie — unlike IBKR.
But that was then and now the mgmt is slowly squashing this bear case with their move into RIAs, credit card subs, and their strong focus on the ongoing intergenerational wealth transfer (I think this part pays off the most in the long-term). And their efforts are working, as active user growth and average deposits/user are both trending well.
I think St fails to see that the RobinHood of 2025 - 2030, is drastically different from the RH of 2021 — when it was the face of the GME scandal. 5 months ago I thought that HOOD might eventually become COIN’s bear case, and today I think HOOD can potentially become IBKR’s bear case in the next 5 years.
Pivot Point Capital
$7974 @ $10650 on Switch 2 release date announcement — preorders likely start 2nd April, in line with our expectations from December. Up 16% since Dec 24. I think @$11500-$12000 the upside from Switch 2 becomes fairly priced in.
Amazing numbers coming in for the S2 upgrade cycle, in line w our original expectations. Sell-side was so behind on this 6 months ago.
Stock was a good buy at ~$9k Yen, but I think at this price ($11800 Yen), expectations are now very high. Continued outperformance from here has to be driven by the software side too, as opposed to just the hardware upgrade cycle — which was what our original thesis was playing for.
I think Nintendo can continue executing well, though it’s just that the bar is much higher now.
Stock was a good buy at ~$9k Yen, but I think at this price ($11800 Yen), expectations are now very high. Continued outperformance from here has to be driven by the software side too, as opposed to just the hardware upgrade cycle — which was what our original thesis was playing for.
I think Nintendo can continue executing well, though it’s just that the bar is much higher now.
👍1
Pivot Point Capital
Israel launched missies at Iran, Iran nationwide state of emergency. Choppiness incoming for the rest of our names, but our drone names should do fine.
Note to self to never ever ignore polymarket’s prediction markets again. Odds soared to 50-60% last 2 nights, which is unusually high for such a significant event.
Should watch polymarket as a sign of insider news in future.
Should watch polymarket as a sign of insider news in future.
Adding $ACHR @ $10.55.
Also buying the dip on $IBIT @ $59.5. To me seems like Bitcoin wins either way; escalation (war leads to inflation) or deescalation (animal spirits continue).
Seems to me like Israeli strike was so impactful that maybe there will not be a strong Iranian response because many of their systems were taken out. So risking some here that nothing ever happens
Also buying the dip on $IBIT @ $59.5. To me seems like Bitcoin wins either way; escalation (war leads to inflation) or deescalation (animal spirits continue).
Seems to me like Israeli strike was so impactful that maybe there will not be a strong Iranian response because many of their systems were taken out. So risking some here that nothing ever happens
Pivot Point Capital
Adding $ACHR @ $10.55. Also buying the dip on $IBIT @ $59.5. To me seems like Bitcoin wins either way; escalation (war leads to inflation) or deescalation (animal spirits continue). Seems to me like Israeli strike was so impactful that maybe there will…
Iran calls Trump
Odds of Iranian regime being toppled also spiked on Polymarket
Odds of Iranian regime being toppled also spiked on Polymarket
https://polymarket.com/event/us-military-action-against-iran-before-july?tid=1749917878423
Watching this market. May need a vpn for sg users. Not advocating for prediction bets, but more of an info signal.
Watching this market. May need a vpn for sg users. Not advocating for prediction bets, but more of an info signal.
Polymarket
US military action against Iran before July?
US military action against Iran before July? (Resolved): View final results and past odds on The World's Largest Prediction Market™
No matter the outcome of this event, I think it’s safe to say that there’s an inflection point in warfare modernisation.
No longer is it about brute force; tanks rolling up to capitals, with significant loss of lives without any bulging of the territory line. Instead it’s about drone bases being set up within the enemy’s cities itself - kept secret till it’s ready to preemptively and strategically deactivate the enemy’s strategic weapons and decapitate leadership. We saw it in Ukraine, and saw it here again.
I guess the secondary question here is that there’s two “spheres” to invest in for this theme; does the east or the west’s drone and drone defense systems end up winning?
Nevertheless, gaining more conviction on the drone basket and added $AXON @ $778.5 to it on Friday. Currently made up of $AVAV $KTOS $ACHR $HAG.DE $AXON
New IPO $AIRO drone maker is also on the watchlist, but harder to enter due to the IPO pop
No longer is it about brute force; tanks rolling up to capitals, with significant loss of lives without any bulging of the territory line. Instead it’s about drone bases being set up within the enemy’s cities itself - kept secret till it’s ready to preemptively and strategically deactivate the enemy’s strategic weapons and decapitate leadership. We saw it in Ukraine, and saw it here again.
I guess the secondary question here is that there’s two “spheres” to invest in for this theme; does the east or the west’s drone and drone defense systems end up winning?
Nevertheless, gaining more conviction on the drone basket and added $AXON @ $778.5 to it on Friday. Currently made up of $AVAV $KTOS $ACHR $HAG.DE $AXON
New IPO $AIRO drone maker is also on the watchlist, but harder to enter due to the IPO pop
Pivot Point Capital
$3350.JT up 14% to $1530 Yen after market on news of $$5.4bn USD raise. 1) there’s huge demand for Bitcoin in JP, 2) strike price issued above market is an amazing deal, reinforcing point 1) Coming around to the idea that these BTC treasury companies are…
$3350.JT up 20% to $1813 Yen off news of a $210 million USD zero coupon bond issuance. Around ~2x from entry.
The stock continues to be priced off expectations of its ability to continue raising funds to buy BTC (ie its speed of acquiring Bitcoin).
https://x.com/metaplanet_jp/status/1934416667418738774?s=46
The stock continues to be priced off expectations of its ability to continue raising funds to buy BTC (ie its speed of acquiring Bitcoin).
https://x.com/metaplanet_jp/status/1934416667418738774?s=46
Pivot Point Capital
No matter the outcome of this event, I think it’s safe to say that there’s an inflection point in warfare modernisation. No longer is it about brute force; tanks rolling up to capitals, with significant loss of lives without any bulging of the territory…
Added a little $AIRO @ $31.58 to speculate on the IPO + drone narrative.
Seems interesting for sub $1b and most of its IPO float is sold to long-only/sector-specific firms. Caveat is I do not have a great record w IPOs 😂
Seems interesting for sub $1b and most of its IPO float is sold to long-only/sector-specific firms. Caveat is I do not have a great record w IPOs 😂
Pivot Point Capital
Added a little $AIRO @ $31.58 to speculate on the IPO + drone narrative. Seems interesting for sub $1b and most of its IPO float is sold to long-only/sector-specific firms. Caveat is I do not have a great record w IPOs 😂
Closed 75% at $32.5 for a small gain as decided to cut back some risk.
Pivot Point Capital
Added $HOOD @ $69.4 and $TEM @ $63.46. Two companies that I think have great mgmt teams and execution capabilities, strong momentum, loyal cult base and also sustainable tailwinds. Also added $CDNS to long term port @ $285 when Trump banned EDA sales to China.…
Trimmed longs across all momo stocks; cut 40% of $HOOD @ $76. Exited fully $TEM $HIMS for small gains.
Cutting risk across most speculative stuff, but still remain very long on drone basket, metaplanet & hood, and other long-term positions. No shorts.
Cutting risk across most speculative stuff, but still remain very long on drone basket, metaplanet & hood, and other long-term positions. No shorts.
Pivot Point Capital
Over-traded this stock and didn’t make as much as I should on it. Tough lesson on just sitting on my hands and letting compounders compound. $HOOD’s bear case for me was that their main customers are primarily degenerates that lose their money too quickly…
Added long on $COIN @ $270.41
Think this “short COIN/long HOOD” ratio mean-reverts. Wall St is going crazy over stablecoins, as seen from CRCL’s IPO.
COIN, USDC’s key distributor, actually receives 50% of CRCL’s interest income from its USDC asset reserves, but yet COIN has not really gained from the stablecoin hype. Would short CRCL as a pair trade but borrow fees are too high now, so taking the naked long on COIN.
Think this “short COIN/long HOOD” ratio mean-reverts. Wall St is going crazy over stablecoins, as seen from CRCL’s IPO.
COIN, USDC’s key distributor, actually receives 50% of CRCL’s interest income from its USDC asset reserves, but yet COIN has not really gained from the stablecoin hype. Would short CRCL as a pair trade but borrow fees are too high now, so taking the naked long on COIN.
Added $8473.JT (SBI Holdings) @ $4813.8 Yen, after trimming $3350.JT yesterday.
Spinoff of Soft Bank, owns 9% of Ripple Labs (the equity, not the token) and $350mn of $CRCL. If crypto IPOs continue to be popular, this can perform.
Spinoff of Soft Bank, owns 9% of Ripple Labs (the equity, not the token) and $350mn of $CRCL. If crypto IPOs continue to be popular, this can perform.
Pivot Point Capital
Added long on $COIN @ $270.41 Think this “short COIN/long HOOD” ratio mean-reverts. Wall St is going crazy over stablecoins, as seen from CRCL’s IPO. COIN, USDC’s key distributor, actually receives 50% of CRCL’s interest income from its USDC asset reserves…
Added more $COIN @ $292 in overnight trading, sold 40% more $HOOD @ $78
Pivot Point Capital
Added long on $COIN @ $270.41 Think this “short COIN/long HOOD” ratio mean-reverts. Wall St is going crazy over stablecoins, as seen from CRCL’s IPO. COIN, USDC’s key distributor, actually receives 50% of CRCL’s interest income from its USDC asset reserves…
Started a SMALL short position of $CRCL @ $218.35. Cut rest of $HOOD @ $76
Quite the wild weekend in news-flow; 1) US strike on Iran, 2) Iran's threat to close Strait of Hormuz
Somehow our drone basket, mostly made up of $AVAV and $KTOS as core proponents, have formed a natural hedge to the rest of our tech/crypto longs in this geopolitical environment. Hence leaving the drone basket as is, while the key focus for now is on 1) buying the dip on favourite tech names, if it happens ($COIN, $HOOD, $3350.JT, $ACHR), and 2) scaling more into our $CRCL short if it continues squeezing up (>$280 would be fantastic).
Wall St calls Trump TACO (Trump always chickens out), but I actually think that's his strategy. To be so consistently volatile and flipfloppish, that the market starts to be desensitized to his words. Hence, will be looking for the market's desensitized point wrt the Iran-Israel situation over the next few weeks. Note to self is to not get overly bearish and subscribe somewhat to the "nothing ever happens" mindset, learning from April's tariffs episode.
Somehow our drone basket, mostly made up of $AVAV and $KTOS as core proponents, have formed a natural hedge to the rest of our tech/crypto longs in this geopolitical environment. Hence leaving the drone basket as is, while the key focus for now is on 1) buying the dip on favourite tech names, if it happens ($COIN, $HOOD, $3350.JT, $ACHR), and 2) scaling more into our $CRCL short if it continues squeezing up (>$280 would be fantastic).
Wall St calls Trump TACO (Trump always chickens out), but I actually think that's his strategy. To be so consistently volatile and flipfloppish, that the market starts to be desensitized to his words. Hence, will be looking for the market's desensitized point wrt the Iran-Israel situation over the next few weeks. Note to self is to not get overly bearish and subscribe somewhat to the "nothing ever happens" mindset, learning from April's tariffs episode.
Pivot Point Capital
Quite the wild weekend in news-flow; 1) US strike on Iran, 2) Iran's threat to close Strait of Hormuz Somehow our drone basket, mostly made up of $AVAV and $KTOS as core proponents, have formed a natural hedge to the rest of our tech/crypto longs in this…
Wrt the Iran situation, think the favorable thing for bulls over the weekend is that the tail risk of US bombing Iran has been partially removed, and both $BTC (risk-on indicator) and $SPX showed resilience through the episode. As markets are forward-looking, the next tail risk that markets are focusing on would likely be the closure of Straits of Hormuz (possible, but I lean towards non-closure atm), or the conflict expanding to militarily involve Russia/China (unlikely imo).
Pivot Point Capital
Trimmed longs across all momo stocks; cut 40% of $HOOD @ $76. Exited fully $TEM $HIMS for small gains. Cutting risk across most speculative stuff, but still remain very long on drone basket, metaplanet & hood, and other long-term positions. No shorts.
$NVO ending partnership with $HIMS, thankfully we exited last week. Sometimes it’s just luck
Entered long on $OSCR @ $19.88, higher quality telehealth business that may gain share off this HIMS hooha
Entered long on $OSCR @ $19.88, higher quality telehealth business that may gain share off this HIMS hooha