Finally also back to positive YTD @ 5%. Ngl was a very tough battle to regain the green (was down >20% at some point) and a slow start to the year, but learnt a lot of invaluable lessons along the way! 😤

Key takeaway is that my performance suffers the most when I start deviating from my core strength (fundamentals equity) and prophesying about macro/FX, so I will do less of that in future and stick to equities.

Also learnt that mental capital is invaluable; protect that at all cost. Avoid taking trades/sizing inappropriately if it risks hurting your mental capital and putting you on tilt, as your other trades afterwards will also be affected.

Added $AVAV @ $40.33, $KTOS @ 185.88 and $HAG.DE @ $108.7 as a thematic play on the growing importance of drones in Defense. Ukraine‘s destruction of Russia’s bombers with drones might be a lightbulb moment for this narrative. Planning to hold these 3 plays for the mid-long term rather than a short term play.

Trimming $HOOD @ $75 into potential S&P500 inclusion news tmr, so that I have ammo to buy any sell-the-news dip

$3350.JT up 14% to $1530 Yen after market on news of $$5.4bn USD raise. 1) there’s huge demand for Bitcoin in JP, 2) strike price issued above market is an amazing deal, reinforcing point 1)

Coming around to the idea that these BTC treasury companies are mainly valued on their ability to raise $$ to buy BTC in future (ie their “growth”potential). Also explains why $MSTR has stagnated lately

https://x.com/metaplanet_jp/status/1930893683622019428?s=46

$HOOD not added to S&P500 (no changes made to index this time), down -3% to $70.2 in the AM. Will look to add on weakness on Monday

Started buying back $HOOD @ $70.87 in pre-m, will continue to add if it goes lower

Late news but moving $AVAV. Entry price posted is flipped for the 2 stocks. Gaining more conviction on this LT tailwind the more time I spend researching it.

$ACHR looks like an ok bet too, evTOL manufacturer, partnerships w Anduril/Palantir. Has a retail cult base which is probably impt for these type of "cool" companies

Supply chain bets on drones/evTOL gaining prominence seem interesting too

News that pushed $HOOD up into the close. While I’m skeptical of the feasibility of this, I’m always impressed with the execution of this company. S&P500 inclusion is a matter of time, so personally I don’t see the dip lasting long if execution continues on the right path.

https://x.com/vladtenev/status/1932164762265174206?s=46

Over-traded this stock and didn’t make as much as I should on it. Tough lesson on just sitting on my hands and letting compounders compound.

$HOOD’s bear case for me was that their main customers are primarily degenerates that lose their money too quickly, and $HOOD has to invest in marketing to find new customers from a ever-decreasing pie — unlike IBKR.

But that was then and now the mgmt is slowly squashing this bear case with their move into RIAs, credit card subs, and their strong focus on the ongoing intergenerational wealth transfer (I think this part pays off the most in the long-term). And their efforts are working, as active user growth and average deposits/user are both trending well.

I think St fails to see that the RobinHood of 2025 - 2030, is drastically different from the RH of 2021 — when it was the face of the GME scandal. 5 months ago I thought that HOOD might eventually become COIN’s bear case, and today I think HOOD can potentially become IBKR’s bear case in the next 5 years.

Amazing numbers coming in for the S2 upgrade cycle, in line w our original expectations. Sell-side was so behind on this 6 months ago.

Stock was a good buy at ~$9k Yen, but I think at this price ($11800 Yen), expectations are now very high. Continued outperformance from here has to be driven by the software side too, as opposed to just the hardware upgrade cycle — which was what our original thesis was playing for.

I think Nintendo can continue executing well, though it’s just that the bar is much higher now.

Israel launched missies at Iran, Iran nationwide state of emergency. Choppiness incoming for the rest of our names, but our drone names should do fine.

Note to self to never ever ignore polymarket’s prediction markets again. Odds soared to 50-60% last 2 nights, which is unusually high for such a significant event.

Should watch polymarket as a sign of insider news in future.

Adding $ACHR @ $10.55.

Also buying the dip on $IBIT @ $59.5. To me seems like Bitcoin wins either way; escalation (war leads to inflation) or deescalation (animal spirits continue).

Seems to me like Israeli strike was so impactful that maybe there will not be a strong Iranian response because many of their systems were taken out. So risking some here that nothing ever happens

Iran calls Trump

Odds of Iranian regime being toppled also spiked on Polymarket

https://polymarket.com/event/us-military-action-against-iran-before-july?tid=1749917878423

Watching this market. May need a vpn for sg users. Not advocating for prediction bets, but more of an info signal.

No matter the outcome of this event, I think it’s safe to say that there’s an inflection point in warfare modernisation.

No longer is it about brute force; tanks rolling up to capitals, with significant loss of lives without any bulging of the territory line. Instead it’s about drone bases being set up within the enemy’s cities itself - kept secret till it’s ready to preemptively and strategically deactivate the enemy’s strategic weapons and decapitate leadership. We saw it in Ukraine, and saw it here again.

I guess the secondary question here is that there’s two “spheres” to invest in for this theme; does the east or the west’s drone and drone defense systems end up winning?

Nevertheless, gaining more conviction on the drone basket and added $AXON @ $778.5 to it on Friday. Currently made up of $AVAV $KTOS $ACHR $HAG.DE $AXON

New IPO $AIRO drone maker is also on the watchlist, but harder to enter due to the IPO pop

$3350.JT up 20% to $1813 Yen off news of a $210 million USD zero coupon bond issuance. Around ~2x from entry.

The stock continues to be priced off expectations of its ability to continue raising funds to buy BTC (ie its speed of acquiring Bitcoin).

https://x.com/metaplanet_jp/status/1934416667418738774?s=46

Added a little $AIRO @ $31.58 to speculate on the IPO + drone narrative.

Seems interesting for sub $1b and most of its IPO float is sold to long-only/sector-specific firms. Caveat is I do not have a great record w IPOs 😂

Closed 75% at $32.5 for a small gain as decided to cut back some risk.

Trimmed longs across all momo stocks; cut 40% of $HOOD @ $76. Exited fully $TEM $HIMS for small gains.

Cutting risk across most speculative stuff, but still remain very long on drone basket, metaplanet & hood, and other long-term positions. No shorts.

Added long on $COIN @ $270.41

Think this “short COIN/long HOOD” ratio mean-reverts. Wall St is going crazy over stablecoins, as seen from CRCL’s IPO.

COIN, USDC’s key distributor, actually receives 50% of CRCL’s interest income from its USDC asset reserves, but yet COIN has not really gained from the stablecoin hype. Would short CRCL as a pair trade but borrow fees are too high now, so taking the naked long on COIN.

Added $8473.JT (SBI Holdings) @ $4813.8 Yen, after trimming $3350.JT yesterday.

Spinoff of Soft Bank, owns 9% of Ripple Labs (the equity, not the token) and $350mn of $CRCL. If crypto IPOs continue to be popular, this can perform.