Picked up some $UNH @ $262, knife catching a little

Generalist here but reaction to the DOJ news and earnings seems overblown for the largest U.S. insurer, to me. Stock -60% in 1 month and not a shitco, interesting enough for a dab.

Scooped some $MSTU over the past week in the $8.7 to $9.5 range

With the moody’s downgrade and many other events over the course of the past 2 months, I think we will see $BTC’s inflection point soon as it is accepted to be a digital gold type of macro asset hedge against fiat and government incompetency. Nothing is greater than an idea whose time has come.

$MSTR holds the largest private BTC reserve, and with its NAV multiplier being 2x I think it’s reasonable as 1) $MSTR should be valued on its replacement cost rather than tangible book value of the BTC (ie how much will it take to buy 4-5% of BTC supply today?), and 2) we are seeing the trend of many new players with significant size starting to adopt the BTC treasury reserve strategy created by MSTR

I don’t think it’s sustainable for dead companies to be re-rated higher just because they adopted MSTR’s ways of buying BTC in their treasury, and that bubble will probably burst one day, but for the time being I think the clear beneficiaries of this trend, combined with govt incompetency and global tensions mentioned above, is clearly $BTC (which I am long) and $MSTR

A speculative play obviously

Insiders buying $UNH on Friday (~$30mn USD), nothing definitive but well at least they arent selling. Also nice that most of the C-suite are buying, and not just the CEO.

CEO that grew UNH from 2006 - 2017 into the insurance giant today was brought back in last week to turnaround the company. Immediately increased his holdings by ~10% ($25mn); probably a symbolic purchase.

$UNH @ $321.75, +23% in 3 trading days. Might make sense to take partial profits here if it’s just a purely technical play

VERY speculative and risky play

Went long some $3350.JT (Metaplanet) @ $845 yesterday. Didnt manage to get as much size in as I wanted as the stock is limit up and halted <30mins into the open 2 days in a row.

TLDR a rerun of $MSTR bitcoin treasury strategy, with 2 key differences: 1) Situated in Japan. I think this point is impt as Japan's fixed income market is huge and $3350.JT being the vehicle that grants them exposure to bitcoin is significant, esp with what's happening with JP govt yields, and 2) Their ability to execute BTC purchases more efficiently through the use of options, and more selective with who they conduct their ATM convertible bond sales to.

I saw that they are also heavily shorted (can’t validate that as I’m only on poor man’s Bloomberg) + strong retail interest

Added $GOOG long @ $173.21 in long term portfolio

Think AI replacing search fears are overblown, and GOOG’s advancement in AI is being significantly overlooked by the market atm

This stock is actually pretty insane, 3rd day in a row limit up and immediately halted for the entire day, 5 mins into the open..

As a result of this, essentially no one can buy the Japan listed stock in time, and short sellers cannot cover too.

As the co is also listed in Germany and US OTC, buyers are turning to these two significantly less liquid markets to make their purchase, leading to the co's stock on the less liquid markets rising much higher vs the Japan-listed one (where 89% of the supply is)

Never seen anything like this tbh

Converted $MSTU holdings to $3350.JT on Friday when it corrected to $800~ yen.

I think the r/r with $3350.JT is much better for a BTC treasury play; the edge here is really betting on JP’s high taxes limiting retail’s BTC exposure, and the dismal credit situation in JP now.

Added $HOOD @ $69.4 and $TEM @ $63.46. Two companies that I think have great mgmt teams and execution capabilities, strong momentum, loyal cult base and also sustainable tailwinds.

Also added $CDNS to long term port @ $285 when Trump banned EDA sales to China. Think it’s a dip to buy afterall TACO Trump. Even if Trump doesn’t change his mind by next week, China rev only accounts for <15% of CDNS revenue and mgmt has been derisking this part of revenue expectations since last year. Always nice to get an opportunity to add to such a high quality company especially after its recent amazing quarter.

Finally also back to positive YTD @ 5%. Ngl was a very tough battle to regain the green (was down >20% at some point) and a slow start to the year, but learnt a lot of invaluable lessons along the way! 😤

Key takeaway is that my performance suffers the most when I start deviating from my core strength (fundamentals equity) and prophesying about macro/FX, so I will do less of that in future and stick to equities.

Also learnt that mental capital is invaluable; protect that at all cost. Avoid taking trades/sizing inappropriately if it risks hurting your mental capital and putting you on tilt, as your other trades afterwards will also be affected.

Added $AVAV @ $40.33, $KTOS @ 185.88 and $HAG.DE @ $108.7 as a thematic play on the growing importance of drones in Defense. Ukraine‘s destruction of Russia’s bombers with drones might be a lightbulb moment for this narrative. Planning to hold these 3 plays for the mid-long term rather than a short term play.

Trimming $HOOD @ $75 into potential S&P500 inclusion news tmr, so that I have ammo to buy any sell-the-news dip

$3350.JT up 14% to $1530 Yen after market on news of $$5.4bn USD raise. 1) there’s huge demand for Bitcoin in JP, 2) strike price issued above market is an amazing deal, reinforcing point 1)

Coming around to the idea that these BTC treasury companies are mainly valued on their ability to raise $$ to buy BTC in future (ie their “growth”potential). Also explains why $MSTR has stagnated lately

https://x.com/metaplanet_jp/status/1930893683622019428?s=46

$HOOD not added to S&P500 (no changes made to index this time), down -3% to $70.2 in the AM. Will look to add on weakness on Monday

Started buying back $HOOD @ $70.87 in pre-m, will continue to add if it goes lower

Late news but moving $AVAV. Entry price posted is flipped for the 2 stocks. Gaining more conviction on this LT tailwind the more time I spend researching it.

$ACHR looks like an ok bet too, evTOL manufacturer, partnerships w Anduril/Palantir. Has a retail cult base which is probably impt for these type of "cool" companies

Supply chain bets on drones/evTOL gaining prominence seem interesting too

News that pushed $HOOD up into the close. While I’m skeptical of the feasibility of this, I’m always impressed with the execution of this company. S&P500 inclusion is a matter of time, so personally I don’t see the dip lasting long if execution continues on the right path.

https://x.com/vladtenev/status/1932164762265174206?s=46

Over-traded this stock and didn’t make as much as I should on it. Tough lesson on just sitting on my hands and letting compounders compound.

$HOOD’s bear case for me was that their main customers are primarily degenerates that lose their money too quickly, and $HOOD has to invest in marketing to find new customers from a ever-decreasing pie — unlike IBKR.

But that was then and now the mgmt is slowly squashing this bear case with their move into RIAs, credit card subs, and their strong focus on the ongoing intergenerational wealth transfer (I think this part pays off the most in the long-term). And their efforts are working, as active user growth and average deposits/user are both trending well.

I think St fails to see that the RobinHood of 2025 - 2030, is drastically different from the RH of 2021 — when it was the face of the GME scandal. 5 months ago I thought that HOOD might eventually become COIN’s bear case, and today I think HOOD can potentially become IBKR’s bear case in the next 5 years.

Amazing numbers coming in for the S2 upgrade cycle, in line w our original expectations. Sell-side was so behind on this 6 months ago.

Stock was a good buy at ~$9k Yen, but I think at this price ($11800 Yen), expectations are now very high. Continued outperformance from here has to be driven by the software side too, as opposed to just the hardware upgrade cycle — which was what our original thesis was playing for.

I think Nintendo can continue executing well, though it’s just that the bar is much higher now.

Israel launched missies at Iran, Iran nationwide state of emergency. Choppiness incoming for the rest of our names, but our drone names should do fine.

Note to self to never ever ignore polymarket’s prediction markets again. Odds soared to 50-60% last 2 nights, which is unusually high for such a significant event.

Should watch polymarket as a sign of insider news in future.

Adding $ACHR @ $10.55.

Also buying the dip on $IBIT @ $59.5. To me seems like Bitcoin wins either way; escalation (war leads to inflation) or deescalation (animal spirits continue).

Seems to me like Israeli strike was so impactful that maybe there will not be a strong Iranian response because many of their systems were taken out. So risking some here that nothing ever happens