$CDNS, pretty good earnings ytd. You could just buy $CDNS and $SNPS and essentially own the “entire” AI value chain by proxy. Without these 2 companies, no companies can design chips, especially when chips are as complex as they are today. Moat is extremely high; I would liken the significance of these 2 companies to $ASML.

Adding $TDG @ $1407 to my long term portfolio.. another high pricing power & moat company that I think may be coming out of its headwind cycle soon. while aerospace limited m&a runway may be a concern, I’m betting more on the mgmt being good capital allocators and hence are not being limited to aerospace only.

This co has a chance of pulling a Constellation Software imo. Expensive stock, but with this pricing power, track record, and this also being a long-only favourite stock, I think it’s fine.

Also still how I think abt portfolio construction in a nutshell. Nth fancy tbh, but long term holds, except for IBKR, have held up very well despite the tariff-driven correction.

Trade talks must not be going as well as Trump admin is trying to portray, if JP is bringing this narrative to the public arena for pressure

JAPANESE FINMIN KATSUNOBU KATO: JAPAN’S US TREASURY HOLDINGS A CARD IN TRADE NEGOTIATION; SAYS WHETHER JAPAN WILL USE THAT CARD IS A DIFFERENT DECISION

Tweet URL: https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1918062951770042464

Picked up some $UNH @ $262, knife catching a little

Generalist here but reaction to the DOJ news and earnings seems overblown for the largest U.S. insurer, to me. Stock -60% in 1 month and not a shitco, interesting enough for a dab.

Scooped some $MSTU over the past week in the $8.7 to $9.5 range

With the moody’s downgrade and many other events over the course of the past 2 months, I think we will see $BTC’s inflection point soon as it is accepted to be a digital gold type of macro asset hedge against fiat and government incompetency. Nothing is greater than an idea whose time has come.

$MSTR holds the largest private BTC reserve, and with its NAV multiplier being 2x I think it’s reasonable as 1) $MSTR should be valued on its replacement cost rather than tangible book value of the BTC (ie how much will it take to buy 4-5% of BTC supply today?), and 2) we are seeing the trend of many new players with significant size starting to adopt the BTC treasury reserve strategy created by MSTR

I don’t think it’s sustainable for dead companies to be re-rated higher just because they adopted MSTR’s ways of buying BTC in their treasury, and that bubble will probably burst one day, but for the time being I think the clear beneficiaries of this trend, combined with govt incompetency and global tensions mentioned above, is clearly $BTC (which I am long) and $MSTR

A speculative play obviously

Insiders buying $UNH on Friday (~$30mn USD), nothing definitive but well at least they arent selling. Also nice that most of the C-suite are buying, and not just the CEO.

CEO that grew UNH from 2006 - 2017 into the insurance giant today was brought back in last week to turnaround the company. Immediately increased his holdings by ~10% ($25mn); probably a symbolic purchase.

$UNH @ $321.75, +23% in 3 trading days. Might make sense to take partial profits here if it’s just a purely technical play

VERY speculative and risky play

Went long some $3350.JT (Metaplanet) @ $845 yesterday. Didnt manage to get as much size in as I wanted as the stock is limit up and halted <30mins into the open 2 days in a row.

TLDR a rerun of $MSTR bitcoin treasury strategy, with 2 key differences: 1) Situated in Japan. I think this point is impt as Japan's fixed income market is huge and $3350.JT being the vehicle that grants them exposure to bitcoin is significant, esp with what's happening with JP govt yields, and 2) Their ability to execute BTC purchases more efficiently through the use of options, and more selective with who they conduct their ATM convertible bond sales to.

I saw that they are also heavily shorted (can’t validate that as I’m only on poor man’s Bloomberg) + strong retail interest

Added $GOOG long @ $173.21 in long term portfolio

Think AI replacing search fears are overblown, and GOOG’s advancement in AI is being significantly overlooked by the market atm

This stock is actually pretty insane, 3rd day in a row limit up and immediately halted for the entire day, 5 mins into the open..

As a result of this, essentially no one can buy the Japan listed stock in time, and short sellers cannot cover too.

As the co is also listed in Germany and US OTC, buyers are turning to these two significantly less liquid markets to make their purchase, leading to the co's stock on the less liquid markets rising much higher vs the Japan-listed one (where 89% of the supply is)

Never seen anything like this tbh

Converted $MSTU holdings to $3350.JT on Friday when it corrected to $800~ yen.

I think the r/r with $3350.JT is much better for a BTC treasury play; the edge here is really betting on JP’s high taxes limiting retail’s BTC exposure, and the dismal credit situation in JP now.

Added $HOOD @ $69.4 and $TEM @ $63.46. Two companies that I think have great mgmt teams and execution capabilities, strong momentum, loyal cult base and also sustainable tailwinds.

Also added $CDNS to long term port @ $285 when Trump banned EDA sales to China. Think it’s a dip to buy afterall TACO Trump. Even if Trump doesn’t change his mind by next week, China rev only accounts for <15% of CDNS revenue and mgmt has been derisking this part of revenue expectations since last year. Always nice to get an opportunity to add to such a high quality company especially after its recent amazing quarter.

Finally also back to positive YTD @ 5%. Ngl was a very tough battle to regain the green (was down >20% at some point) and a slow start to the year, but learnt a lot of invaluable lessons along the way! 😤

Key takeaway is that my performance suffers the most when I start deviating from my core strength (fundamentals equity) and prophesying about macro/FX, so I will do less of that in future and stick to equities.

Also learnt that mental capital is invaluable; protect that at all cost. Avoid taking trades/sizing inappropriately if it risks hurting your mental capital and putting you on tilt, as your other trades afterwards will also be affected.

Added $AVAV @ $40.33, $KTOS @ 185.88 and $HAG.DE @ $108.7 as a thematic play on the growing importance of drones in Defense. Ukraine‘s destruction of Russia’s bombers with drones might be a lightbulb moment for this narrative. Planning to hold these 3 plays for the mid-long term rather than a short term play.

Trimming $HOOD @ $75 into potential S&P500 inclusion news tmr, so that I have ammo to buy any sell-the-news dip

$3350.JT up 14% to $1530 Yen after market on news of $$5.4bn USD raise. 1) there’s huge demand for Bitcoin in JP, 2) strike price issued above market is an amazing deal, reinforcing point 1)

Coming around to the idea that these BTC treasury companies are mainly valued on their ability to raise $$ to buy BTC in future (ie their “growth”potential). Also explains why $MSTR has stagnated lately

https://x.com/metaplanet_jp/status/1930893683622019428?s=46