The more these illusionary “trade deals” get dangled in front of the market as a carrot, without any actual actions or follow throughs, the less the impact will be when these trade deals actually get finalized

SPX fully retraced Bessent headline, lol. That was quick

Seems like it’s (1) instead of (2). Guess equity/bond prices do matter after all w this admin. Not gonna tweak positions as who knows what DT will say next when he wakes up on the wrong side of the bed again.

Portfolio allocation quite comfy both ways, as $1810.HK & $MSTR will carry the portfolio if the trade war gets a positive turn, & $1347.HK and $USDJPY short will otherwise

Took a day for DT to wake up on the wrong side of his bed, again. Would be funny if $SPY closed red

Cut $MSTR @$349 and went long $GLD @ $303 again

Don’t expect this China <> US deescalation to be fast because of the importance of saving face to both sides. One could just look back to 2018 to see that it took ~1.5 years from first announcement of US tariffs on China to first deescalation agreement. Though stakes are much higher this time round.

Switch 2’s preorder applications “far exceeding” mgmt’s expectations in Japan launch

Some chatter about India <> Pakistan conflict. Nth much atm, but kiv in case of escalation because:

- both own nuclear heads
- India sides w US, Pakistan w China

$CDNS, pretty good earnings ytd. You could just buy $CDNS and $SNPS and essentially own the “entire” AI value chain by proxy. Without these 2 companies, no companies can design chips, especially when chips are as complex as they are today. Moat is extremely high; I would liken the significance of these 2 companies to $ASML.

Adding $TDG @ $1407 to my long term portfolio.. another high pricing power & moat company that I think may be coming out of its headwind cycle soon. while aerospace limited m&a runway may be a concern, I’m betting more on the mgmt being good capital allocators and hence are not being limited to aerospace only.

This co has a chance of pulling a Constellation Software imo. Expensive stock, but with this pricing power, track record, and this also being a long-only favourite stock, I think it’s fine.

Also still how I think abt portfolio construction in a nutshell. Nth fancy tbh, but long term holds, except for IBKR, have held up very well despite the tariff-driven correction.

Trade talks must not be going as well as Trump admin is trying to portray, if JP is bringing this narrative to the public arena for pressure

JAPANESE FINMIN KATSUNOBU KATO: JAPAN’S US TREASURY HOLDINGS A CARD IN TRADE NEGOTIATION; SAYS WHETHER JAPAN WILL USE THAT CARD IS A DIFFERENT DECISION

Tweet URL: https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1918062951770042464

Picked up some $UNH @ $262, knife catching a little

Generalist here but reaction to the DOJ news and earnings seems overblown for the largest U.S. insurer, to me. Stock -60% in 1 month and not a shitco, interesting enough for a dab.

Scooped some $MSTU over the past week in the $8.7 to $9.5 range

With the moody’s downgrade and many other events over the course of the past 2 months, I think we will see $BTC’s inflection point soon as it is accepted to be a digital gold type of macro asset hedge against fiat and government incompetency. Nothing is greater than an idea whose time has come.

$MSTR holds the largest private BTC reserve, and with its NAV multiplier being 2x I think it’s reasonable as 1) $MSTR should be valued on its replacement cost rather than tangible book value of the BTC (ie how much will it take to buy 4-5% of BTC supply today?), and 2) we are seeing the trend of many new players with significant size starting to adopt the BTC treasury reserve strategy created by MSTR

I don’t think it’s sustainable for dead companies to be re-rated higher just because they adopted MSTR’s ways of buying BTC in their treasury, and that bubble will probably burst one day, but for the time being I think the clear beneficiaries of this trend, combined with govt incompetency and global tensions mentioned above, is clearly $BTC (which I am long) and $MSTR

A speculative play obviously

Insiders buying $UNH on Friday (~$30mn USD), nothing definitive but well at least they arent selling. Also nice that most of the C-suite are buying, and not just the CEO.

CEO that grew UNH from 2006 - 2017 into the insurance giant today was brought back in last week to turnaround the company. Immediately increased his holdings by ~10% ($25mn); probably a symbolic purchase.

$UNH @ $321.75, +23% in 3 trading days. Might make sense to take partial profits here if it’s just a purely technical play