Short/mid-term, event play. Mid/high conviction, low/mid risk.

$NTDOY @ $14.96 or 7974.JT @ $9184 Yen (depends if you buy the japanese stock or the ADR, both are the same)

Everyone knows nintendo, the pitch is simple. The Switch has been a breakthrough gaming console for 8 years, with sales constantly outperforming that of a typical console cycle (usually consoles sales drop significantly after the first 3 years, but Switch manages to sustain sales even up till the 7th year).

A key reason for this is Nintendo’s IP (mario, pokemon, tears of kingdom etc), which is available only for NTDOY’s consoles. These IPs act as a moat essentially, locking in Nintendo’s fanbase.

Suffering from success of its Switch 1, the Switch has become relatively outdated vs other consoles in terms of specs.

Now the key question comes into play: when will NTDOY release Switch 2 (Switch 1’s successor), and when they do, how does the replacement cycle from Switch 1 -> Switch 2 look like (e.g. will existing users upgrade to Switch 2?)

My bet: Yes. Switch 2’s replacement (likely launched in March/May) will be extraordinary, driving NTDOY into a strong product-driven cycle for 2025/26, similar to its COVID years.

Reasons:
(1) Switch 1’s outdated specs will drive users to upgrade, esp as NTDOY introduces more 3rd party games into its ecosystems (which typically demands higher specs).

(2) When NTDOY introduced the OLED and Lite version for Switch 1, upgrade rates were outstanding. This is despite the OLED and Lite version having only limited to no upgrades. Using these 2 versions as a floor for our Switch 2 performance, NTDOY’s S2 release will be significantly better than Street’s expectations.

(2) Whenever a new console is introduced, NTDOY tends to simultaneously launch several software games too (typically AAA games like pokemon, mario related). These games are actually extremely high margins (90%+ GM for digital versions), and will help drive the incoming product cycle for 2025/26.

Key risk: replacement cycle is below our expectations - I think unlikely. Supply-side crisis given that Switch uses NVDA’s chips, with rise of AI they may not get sufficient chips for Switch 2’s production which will hurt sales. I think its fine, as Switch’s chips tend to be more related to automobile chips rather than GPU chips, so risk isn’t that significant imo.

I really like this stock; mgmt has been renewed lately in 2018. New mgmt seems more capable of monetizing their valuable IP, and Japan’s governance changes to push companies to create/return value for shareholders is also a tailwind.

Feels like they have stumbled upon the perfect handheld/home console with Switch, which was their original vision of Wii. Street still views Switch as an ordinary console like the PS4/5, but our fundamental bet is that it’s not.

Basically how I’d structure a portfolio would be:

60-80% Long-term buy and holds (little trades): CDNS TDG IBKR NTDOY

10%-40% <1 year event trades (high activity/trades): HOOD NTDOY COIN

<10% Moonshots: RKLB LUNR

Trump speaking on space aspirations for Mars exploration as a key objective for his term. Space stocks should see movement today.

$RKLB $LUNR

Space stocks going nuts.

Funny how you could have bought LUNR at $19.5 for 5 hours in the pre-market, despite Trump announcing that they were going to space so clearly last night. Little inefficiencies in this market which give us our edge.

$RKLB $LUNR

$7974 @ $10650 on Switch 2 release date announcement — preorders likely start 2nd April, in line with our expectations from December. Up 16% since Dec 24.

I think @$11500-$12000 the upside from Switch 2 becomes fairly priced in.

Mid term play, mid conviction/risk

$TWLO @ $144.83, $GTLB @ $71.64, $TEM @ $69

Recently I’ve been thinking about Phase 2 of the AI tailwinds. 2023/24 was AI Phase 1, and it was dominated by infrastructure players. Examples of the key winners were semis, fabless chip companies, power and energy providers, servers and hardware providers etc.

Now, Deepseek was a pivotal moment - it reflected the ongoing commoditisation of LLMs. Essentially, the cost of LLMs should increasingly trend downwards due to competition and technology advances, and the end state becomes a winner take all LLM that is likely free for use (also the reason why current players are ready to throw so much capex to build the best LLM (or AGI eventually) now - bc it’s a winner take all market).

With commoditisation of LLMs, it’s negative for the upstream as cost and demand of compute decreases. What benefits? Probably companies that actually build on top of LLMs to add value for their customers. To relate to this, think of Windows OS being made free, and the apps built on it are the ones that create and accrue value. This is my current mental framework for AI endgame.

I’ve been looking into SaaS companies like $TWLO @ $144.83, $GTLB @ $71.64. Beyond that, I think healthcare and oncology will really benefit from using AI to create value in medical diagnosis.

For oncology, I’m in $TEM. Currently it’s $69, stock has clearly ran up lately, so waiting for a pullback is probably best. But we are probably still relatively early in the phase 2 trend, and besides I think healthcare is one of the areas where AI can really create a lot of meaningful value to humanity; so I really like the stock.

#spaceupdate

$RKLB +26%, $LUNR +44% in ~2 months since Nov 24.

Added to $RKLB @ $28.61, and added $ASTS @ $28.35 on T-mobile + Starlink launch yesterday

I continue to be very bullish on space. Public key leaders are only ~$10bn or less in mcap, and if space is going to be a key ambition of the Trump and future admin - very likely given Elon’s role in govt - then it’s not far-fetched to think govt investment gets directed to this industry.

We are also seeing real value to humanity per se being developed, in satellite connectivity and asteroid defence.

The risk is high though as the sector is very nascent, so current leaders may not shape up to be future leaders. But overall space will continue to gain importance imo, so I’m keeping a close eye.

#exchangesupdate

Closing this trade out at $COIN @$280 (-13.5%), $HOOD @$57 (+61%).

I’ve turned bearish on COIN since Jan, and increasingly bullish on HOOD for a lot of reasons:

- Most US based customers’ first exposure to crypto is actly through HOOD and not COIN. Cant find the data now but I’m pretty sure I’ve seen it before.

- I think market wrongly perceives coin to be THE crypto play, when in actuality there’s not much difference between hood and coin due to both of them having to comply with regulations — which slows down listing speed and competitiveness. (Eg for $trump coin, COIN only listed it 1 day before HOOD). Though I admit, US-listed exchanges will never be able to compete with lawless binance in listing speed; no point really talking about that in this HOOD vs COIN comparison.

- HOOD’s UI/UX is simply much better. COIN’s terrible, and lots of customers complain about their fraud detection false flagging on Twitter.

- If animal spirits are back, I’m sure it won’t be just limited to crypto. HOOD’s TAM is simply much bigger given access to trad equity market + options.

- Valuation wise, HOOD is also cheaper and has a stronger growth story vs COIN due to the larger TAM. For more look into their recent investor day for their future plans.

- COIN’s only “moat” vs HOOD is their L2 - Base - and in creating an entire ecosystem that they control and direct exchange users towards, hence why they are heavily subsidising use of it now. But L1/L2s are super competitive, so not very bullish on Base being a stand out vs Solana.

The bear case for HOOD however is that their customers (aka degenerates) lose money at such an unprecedented pace, that HOOD basically has to consistently invest in marketing to attract customers; pressures margins. Given the run up and my expectations of future volatility in 25/26, R/R seems off to continue holding these exchange businesses. I think $IBKR @$222 should outperform both HOOD and COIN from here.

Feel free to share this channel to anyone that’s interested!

It’s not financial advice, just meant to be a highlighter on interesting stuff, and a diary for myself. No entry price or price targets given out here too. Posts are unedited/undeleted to maintain transparency.

I try to share my entry point, and very very VERY occasionally my exit point to keep myself accountable. Sometimes I don’t share when I exit, so you should not expect this, and should take profit/cut losses whenever you yourself deem fit.

Short mid-term play, low-mid conviction, mid risk

Started building exposure to China in the past week, in the easiest way possible; long $BABA @$108 and $1810.HK @$43 HKD

Main thesis is in building out a hedge to American Supremacy, given DeepSeek & Trump’s America First policy; $BABA probably functions as well if not better than any index bets because it’s such a diversified business, plus it’s a direct AI beneficiary.

On Xiaomi, stock has run up a lot in the past year but I still like the company’s “uniqloish” position (cheap but quality) in a country facing a potential recession, while Beijing tries to resuscitate consumption. Co is also branching into EVs and related, so the growth story is there too.

Everything in China is cheap as hell on a valuation basis, but the risk is investors don’t trust that they can actually get their money out of China - a very legitimate concern. But R/R now favours a long now (unlike previous years) given the recent technological and political catalysts for a potential inflection in sentiments.

PS: It’s hard to beat the CCP, but let’s try (I like pain)

Elon’s retweet makes me think it’s either 1) robotics related, or 2) Starlink + iPhone related. Leaning towards the latter; if so $ASTS should react positively.

Or could just be a huge nothingburger too.

No hard evidence, but I have a strong feeling that the best humanoids/robotics companies (probably the next big trend besides space) will come out of China rather than US, given their historical hardware/systems innovation. E.g. see Unitree’s $14k USD humanoid

I think $1810.HK Xiaomi is a strong contender - given their expertise with home and car ecosystem appliances + their venture into AI with their poaching of Deepseek’s top prodigy. Nothing officially on this front yet, but it’s what I will be keeping an eye out for.

Do ping me if yall know any interesting public robotics companies!