Hmm, maybe not so wrong on getting (1) this week after all

*CHINA OPEN TO TALKS IF TRUMP SHOWS RESPECT, NAMES POINT PERSON

*CHINA WANTS TRUMP TO REIN IN CABINET MEMBERS, SHOW CONSISTENCY

*CHINA WANTS US TALKS TO ADDRESS CONCERNS ON TAIWAN, SANCTIONS

Tweet URL: https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1912423785304564189

Tbh tho, I don’t find these headlines v actionable anymore. Market probably wants to see real action vs chit chat at this point.

Taiwan issue will probably rear its ugly head in Trump’s term, given his concessions/approach towards Ukraine/Russia. Not a geopolitical expert but just thinking about edge risk cases. Basically, I’m just sidelined and chilling in Yen still.

Hearing the sirens of stagflation and the ringing of a lost decade

BBG: Fed's Powell indicates tariffs could pose a challenge between controlling inflation, boosting growth

Think ROW trade has tailwinds; bought $1810.HK @ $42 HKD, in addition to $1347.HK @ $36 HKD yesterday

Small long $CHA @$38.93 for the IPO pop

Drinking Mixue only from now on.

Another day, another ATH for $GLD and another low for the Dollar. Despite underperforming on execution, pretty proud of this call

One interesting thought is when does this $GLD bid translate over to BTC, if ever..?

BTC makes sense logically as a hedge to fiat currency debasement, though it’s viewed more as a (A) risk-on speculative QE play rather than a (B) risk-off safe haven hedge like gold. Though if you think about it, both (A) and (B) are anarchist anti-stupidity bets stemming from the same roots.

On the positive side, BTC as an asset is better than gold in almost every other way (fungibility, portability etc) except the history, yet priced at 10% of gold mcap. Is the history worth 900% premium? Is 500% premium more reasonable? If so, that’s a 4x for BTC if Gold’s price stays the same. Volatility of the asset has also died down lately, with BTC having lower vol vs SPX.

Imo, catching the schelling point as the BTC asset transitions from being viewed as (A) to (B) can be one of the most asymmetrical bets in the next few years, especially if we were to get a stagflationary/uninvestable US environment

To be clear, not saying to long $BTC now. Think the main concern I have now is that I’m not sure whether BTC is being viewed as a risk-off hedge, or if it will sell off aggressively when things turn bad suddenly like COVID, so more comfy staying in Yen still.

Long $R3NK.AG @ $49.7 last Thursday on EU Defense theme -- think EU rearmament and ROW trade still has room to go given the U.S. climate. 35x NTM P/E isn’t that expensive considering the above imo

Consumer stocks like $NKE $LULU $FIVE suddenly rose into the close — possible insider trading on a Vietnam deal announcement soon.

We saw the same dynamics in $AAPL the Friday before last weekend where semi & electronics were announced to be excluded from tariffs. This admin leaks like a sieve and I think there’s def insider trading there. Purely speculative though

Sized up further on $USDJPY short

Long $MSTR @ $321; small & speculative position

Gold miners did well on gold price skyrocketing, as price increases directly flows through to margins. Imagine $BTC miners will have the same dynamics - but the problem w BTC miners is that they are amateurishly ran & extremely share dilutive last I looked. Hence might as well buy some $MSTR that is in the business of cleanly acquiring BTC without the capital intensiveness or need for good operational execution of these miners.

Current stock positions: Long $1347.HK $1810.HK $R3NK.AG $MSTR

FX: Short $USDJPY

Signs of infighting within the White House

He’s stating the obvious though. Unlikely atm, but if Bessent, the only sane voice left in the admin, is fired for speaking against the Trump line, it might actually be over.

And is a “closed-door investor summit” an euphemism for insider trading 😂

So not necessarily bullish, if Bessent is forced out for this. If you listen to his podcasts, Trump loves yes men.

This could be 1) Trump admin trying to deescalate, or 2) Bessent speaking out of line.

Tbh I’m leaning to 2) bc Trump and US’s rhetorical against China over the weekend seems escalatory at the very least

The more these illusionary “trade deals” get dangled in front of the market as a carrot, without any actual actions or follow throughs, the less the impact will be when these trade deals actually get finalized

SPX fully retraced Bessent headline, lol. That was quick

Seems like it’s (1) instead of (2). Guess equity/bond prices do matter after all w this admin. Not gonna tweak positions as who knows what DT will say next when he wakes up on the wrong side of the bed again.

Portfolio allocation quite comfy both ways, as $1810.HK & $MSTR will carry the portfolio if the trade war gets a positive turn, & $1347.HK and $USDJPY short will otherwise