Oh boy banana republic galore

Shorted USDCHF @ $0.8172, mostly to hedge out my USD-denominated assets

Closing SGDCNH long here @ $5.559. Think yuan weakening probably not on the table, as China wouldn’t want to anger other trade partners if they are trying form a group against US

Which way, Western Man?

Bought 1347.HK @ $36 on US ban of NVDA’s H20 chip exports. China’s AI-specific semi independence will be ever more impt in this trade war climate.

Was wrong in thinking China deescalation comes this week. Seems to be escalating beyond simple tariffs with ban on exports/imports from both sides, and U.S. attempt to isolate China from world trade/China’s attempt to make partnerships around the world.

Would also be careful with China cos’ ADR — US delisting eventually just a pawn piece

Changed USDCHF short to USDJPY short @ $142.68

Evolution of the “most crowded trade” through the years

Impt to note that crowded trades can stay crowded.. for pretty long

Hmm, maybe not so wrong on getting (1) this week after all

*CHINA OPEN TO TALKS IF TRUMP SHOWS RESPECT, NAMES POINT PERSON

*CHINA WANTS TRUMP TO REIN IN CABINET MEMBERS, SHOW CONSISTENCY

*CHINA WANTS US TALKS TO ADDRESS CONCERNS ON TAIWAN, SANCTIONS

Tweet URL: https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1912423785304564189

Tbh tho, I don’t find these headlines v actionable anymore. Market probably wants to see real action vs chit chat at this point.

Taiwan issue will probably rear its ugly head in Trump’s term, given his concessions/approach towards Ukraine/Russia. Not a geopolitical expert but just thinking about edge risk cases. Basically, I’m just sidelined and chilling in Yen still.

Hearing the sirens of stagflation and the ringing of a lost decade

BBG: Fed's Powell indicates tariffs could pose a challenge between controlling inflation, boosting growth

Think ROW trade has tailwinds; bought $1810.HK @ $42 HKD, in addition to $1347.HK @ $36 HKD yesterday

Small long $CHA @$38.93 for the IPO pop

Drinking Mixue only from now on.

Another day, another ATH for $GLD and another low for the Dollar. Despite underperforming on execution, pretty proud of this call

One interesting thought is when does this $GLD bid translate over to BTC, if ever..?

BTC makes sense logically as a hedge to fiat currency debasement, though it’s viewed more as a (A) risk-on speculative QE play rather than a (B) risk-off safe haven hedge like gold. Though if you think about it, both (A) and (B) are anarchist anti-stupidity bets stemming from the same roots.

On the positive side, BTC as an asset is better than gold in almost every other way (fungibility, portability etc) except the history, yet priced at 10% of gold mcap. Is the history worth 900% premium? Is 500% premium more reasonable? If so, that’s a 4x for BTC if Gold’s price stays the same. Volatility of the asset has also died down lately, with BTC having lower vol vs SPX.

Imo, catching the schelling point as the BTC asset transitions from being viewed as (A) to (B) can be one of the most asymmetrical bets in the next few years, especially if we were to get a stagflationary/uninvestable US environment

To be clear, not saying to long $BTC now. Think the main concern I have now is that I’m not sure whether BTC is being viewed as a risk-off hedge, or if it will sell off aggressively when things turn bad suddenly like COVID, so more comfy staying in Yen still.

Long $R3NK.AG @ $49.7 last Thursday on EU Defense theme -- think EU rearmament and ROW trade still has room to go given the U.S. climate. 35x NTM P/E isn’t that expensive considering the above imo