Pivot Point Capital
Maybe I’m a dirty PANICIAN but gut says something is up. Yields back at pre-tweet levels, DXY finally starting to unravel. More worryingly, markets were not saved despite DT’s tweet, signs of loss of narrative control/confidence. Might require a “whatever…
We got (3) yesterday, some form of (2) today and probably more over the next month (some small trade deal wins branded as a huge victory sufficient to pacify Trump), and will possibly get some form of (1) next week.
Catalyst path is starting to look good for longs, and also there’s the wall of worry (poor consumer sentiments, high inflation potential) that will continue to keep buyers sidelined if the recovery rally holds. Hence will be aggressively buying HOOD IBKR BLDR AMD 1347.HK 1810.HK on Monday
Still bearish on Dollar though as QE will further lessen its attractiveness, so shorting USDCHF as a hedge
Catalyst path is starting to look good for longs, and also there’s the wall of worry (poor consumer sentiments, high inflation potential) that will continue to keep buyers sidelined if the recovery rally holds. Hence will be aggressively buying HOOD IBKR BLDR AMD 1347.HK 1810.HK on Monday
Still bearish on Dollar though as QE will further lessen its attractiveness, so shorting USDCHF as a hedge
Shorted USDCHF @ $0.8172, mostly to hedge out my USD-denominated assets
Pivot Point Capital
Current positions: all are longs. Trimming half of $81810.HK here as worried that U.S. might incentivise other countries to isolate China in exchange for good trade deals. Bessent: “US may approach China as a group”. YTD: -2.48%. Ngl my execution has been…
Closing SGDCNH long here @ $5.559. Think yuan weakening probably not on the table, as China wouldn’t want to anger other trade partners if they are trying form a group against US
Bought 1347.HK @ $36 on US ban of NVDA’s H20 chip exports. China’s AI-specific semi independence will be ever more impt in this trade war climate.
Was wrong in thinking China deescalation comes this week. Seems to be escalating beyond simple tariffs with ban on exports/imports from both sides, and U.S. attempt to isolate China from world trade/China’s attempt to make partnerships around the world.
Would also be careful with China cos’ ADR — US delisting eventually just a pawn piece
Pivot Point Capital
Shorted USDCHF @ $0.8172, mostly to hedge out my USD-denominated assets
Changed USDCHF short to USDJPY short @ $142.68
Forwarded from Tariffs (synoptic.com)
*CHINA OPEN TO TALKS IF TRUMP SHOWS RESPECT, NAMES POINT PERSON
*CHINA WANTS TRUMP TO REIN IN CABINET MEMBERS, SHOW CONSISTENCY
*CHINA WANTS US TALKS TO ADDRESS CONCERNS ON TAIWAN, SANCTIONS
Tweet URL: https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1912423785304564189
*CHINA WANTS TRUMP TO REIN IN CABINET MEMBERS, SHOW CONSISTENCY
*CHINA WANTS US TALKS TO ADDRESS CONCERNS ON TAIWAN, SANCTIONS
Tweet URL: https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1912423785304564189
Tbh tho, I don’t find these headlines v actionable anymore. Market probably wants to see real action vs chit chat at this point.
Pivot Point Capital
On second thought, just closed $BABA long. Don’t like the potential unknowns in this trade war, and negative binary outcomes if Taiwan issue comes up.
Taiwan issue will probably rear its ugly head in Trump’s term, given his concessions/approach towards Ukraine/Russia. Not a geopolitical expert but just thinking about edge risk cases. Basically, I’m just sidelined and chilling in Yen still.
Forwarded from Tariffs (synoptic.com)
BBG: Fed's Powell indicates tariffs could pose a challenge between controlling inflation, boosting growth