Trump admin may have lost control of the narrative.

Maybe I’m a dirty PANICIAN but gut says something is up. Yields back at pre-tweet levels, DXY finally starting to unravel. More worryingly, markets were not saved despite DT’s tweet, signs of loss of narrative control/confidence. Might require a “whatever it takes” action soon from the Fed.

China keeping mum about all of these is also.. interesting. They prob know that US was self-goaling its own economy w 145% tariffs. DT’s nice comments about Xi yesterday has (desperately) set the stage up for a call, so if this does happen then maybe it’s a catalyst for a long. If China is going to take up DT’s invitation, it should be within a week. So 3 things that can resolve well for a long: 1) China call, 2) complete walk back of tariffs, 3) “whatever it takes” moment from the Fed. Otherwise, I’m very pessimistic

I think as the trade war progresses, we will see a trend of 1) increased local stimulus to aid export sectors + 2) global currency debasement globally to remain export competitive, all of which are tailwinds for $GLD. Afterall, fiat is just a faith game at the end of the day. Who will be the final backstop?

Basically no diff for the CCP between taking Taiwan or not. Art of the deal

China’s comments. Seems like describing allies’ trade deals overtures as “kissing my ass” is not a good way to get others on the line

Uh… does the Dollar or the Treasuries get saved? I think Dollar gets sacrificed for Treasuries

We got (3) yesterday, some form of (2) today and probably more over the next month (some small trade deal wins branded as a huge victory sufficient to pacify Trump), and will possibly get some form of (1) next week.

Catalyst path is starting to look good for longs, and also there’s the wall of worry (poor consumer sentiments, high inflation potential) that will continue to keep buyers sidelined if the recovery rally holds. Hence will be aggressively buying HOOD IBKR BLDR AMD 1347.HK 1810.HK on Monday

Still bearish on Dollar though as QE will further lessen its attractiveness, so shorting USDCHF as a hedge

(1)

Oh boy banana republic galore

Shorted USDCHF @ $0.8172, mostly to hedge out my USD-denominated assets

Closing SGDCNH long here @ $5.559. Think yuan weakening probably not on the table, as China wouldn’t want to anger other trade partners if they are trying form a group against US

Which way, Western Man?

Bought 1347.HK @ $36 on US ban of NVDA’s H20 chip exports. China’s AI-specific semi independence will be ever more impt in this trade war climate.

Was wrong in thinking China deescalation comes this week. Seems to be escalating beyond simple tariffs with ban on exports/imports from both sides, and U.S. attempt to isolate China from world trade/China’s attempt to make partnerships around the world.

Would also be careful with China cos’ ADR — US delisting eventually just a pawn piece

Changed USDCHF short to USDJPY short @ $142.68

Evolution of the “most crowded trade” through the years

Impt to note that crowded trades can stay crowded.. for pretty long

Hmm, maybe not so wrong on getting (1) this week after all

*CHINA OPEN TO TALKS IF TRUMP SHOWS RESPECT, NAMES POINT PERSON

*CHINA WANTS TRUMP TO REIN IN CABINET MEMBERS, SHOW CONSISTENCY

*CHINA WANTS US TALKS TO ADDRESS CONCERNS ON TAIWAN, SANCTIONS

Tweet URL: https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1912423785304564189

Tbh tho, I don’t find these headlines v actionable anymore. Market probably wants to see real action vs chit chat at this point.

Taiwan issue will probably rear its ugly head in Trump’s term, given his concessions/approach towards Ukraine/Russia. Not a geopolitical expert but just thinking about edge risk cases. Basically, I’m just sidelined and chilling in Yen still.