Bessent, bond salesman of the Greatest Country on Earth, has fallen

Would hate to be Powell right now. Hands are tied w a 6-inch rope. Think he has to speak soon to address this — potential upside risk to shorts so trim if you have to.

Added $BABA at $106.64 too

6 hours since the 104% tariffs went into effect… eerily quiet on the China front except for this paper w 6 relevant words “resolving disputes through dialogue and consultation”.

Feels to me like giving Trump a 后路 to 下台. Can see potential removal of 50% tariffs + potential Fed intervention speech tonight; so leaning more ST bullish

Long $NVDA @ $98.7 & $HOOD @$34.3

Ok scrap those longs, luck of the draw

Closed all shorts when the bad news = good price. Longed $NVDA @ $100.47, $HOOD @ $36.91 on 90 days pause

Long $INTC $21.24

#1 most humbling takeaway for me from past few weeks is that it was not the market refusing to believe in trump until the moment it happened, but that the market knew that self imposed austerity could be reversed in a finger snap, and thus only waited up till the last second to price the outcome in.

Current positions: all are longs. Trimming half of $81810.HK here as worried that U.S. might incentivise other countries to isolate China in exchange for good trade deals. Bessent: “US may approach China as a group”.

YTD: -2.48%. Ngl my execution has been crap. Bailed out by DT yesterday but good outcome does not mean good process — need to improve execution and maintaining conviction in choppy times.

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Outlook: Still think there’s LT downside, baseline tariffs + China 125% still a significant drag on growth. Q2 earnings starting soon and companies are pulling guidance due to uncertainty, nvr a good sign.

That said, this has the makings of a hated bear market rally.. rapid move upwards catching many short/sidelined (marginal buyers present), PTSD inducing people to TP too early, we also learnt the existence of a “Trump put” (~5% 30Y UST, ~4.5% 10Y UST, ~4,800 SPX, wanting to avoid a severe recession).

TLDR I’m on the fence. Positioned for ST upside but as you can tell, I change my mind frequently.

TP longs into gold. Market weaker than I thought.

Yields continuing to rise. Gold ATH. Dollar finally starting to fall. Yucks

Trump admin may have lost control of the narrative.

Maybe I’m a dirty PANICIAN but gut says something is up. Yields back at pre-tweet levels, DXY finally starting to unravel. More worryingly, markets were not saved despite DT’s tweet, signs of loss of narrative control/confidence. Might require a “whatever it takes” action soon from the Fed.

China keeping mum about all of these is also.. interesting. They prob know that US was self-goaling its own economy w 145% tariffs. DT’s nice comments about Xi yesterday has (desperately) set the stage up for a call, so if this does happen then maybe it’s a catalyst for a long. If China is going to take up DT’s invitation, it should be within a week. So 3 things that can resolve well for a long: 1) China call, 2) complete walk back of tariffs, 3) “whatever it takes” moment from the Fed. Otherwise, I’m very pessimistic

I think as the trade war progresses, we will see a trend of 1) increased local stimulus to aid export sectors + 2) global currency debasement globally to remain export competitive, all of which are tailwinds for $GLD. Afterall, fiat is just a faith game at the end of the day. Who will be the final backstop?

Basically no diff for the CCP between taking Taiwan or not. Art of the deal

China’s comments. Seems like describing allies’ trade deals overtures as “kissing my ass” is not a good way to get others on the line

Uh… does the Dollar or the Treasuries get saved? I think Dollar gets sacrificed for Treasuries

We got (3) yesterday, some form of (2) today and probably more over the next month (some small trade deal wins branded as a huge victory sufficient to pacify Trump), and will possibly get some form of (1) next week.

Catalyst path is starting to look good for longs, and also there’s the wall of worry (poor consumer sentiments, high inflation potential) that will continue to keep buyers sidelined if the recovery rally holds. Hence will be aggressively buying HOOD IBKR BLDR AMD 1347.HK 1810.HK on Monday

Still bearish on Dollar though as QE will further lessen its attractiveness, so shorting USDCHF as a hedge

(1)

Oh boy banana republic galore

Shorted USDCHF @ $0.8172, mostly to hedge out my USD-denominated assets

Closing SGDCNH long here @ $5.559. Think yuan weakening probably not on the table, as China wouldn’t want to anger other trade partners if they are trying form a group against US