Futures ripping currently, climbing a wall of worry. Seems retail-friendly stocks like $PLTR are performing the best, might be indicative of flows.
Urging caution before Apr 9. Trump has mentioned an additional 50% tariff on China unless they withdraw their retaliatory tariffs. And what’s worrying is that the market has a history of not believing Trump’s words till the “panic” moment in the recent few months. Market has recently always been in the “nothing ever happens” mindset, right up till the moment it happens.
Not sure why Trump did it this way but he has effectively boxed himself in. Having issued this warning to China pushes both sides to a confrontation. China has stated that they’ll fight till the end. Ball is in Trump’s court now — either he backs down now as the boy who cried wolf or he has to issue an additional 50% tariff on China tmr.
Maybe they reach an agreement tn/tmr, who knows. But it’s never too late to join the “nothing ever happens” camp tmr instead of today. Just my 2cs
Urging caution before Apr 9. Trump has mentioned an additional 50% tariff on China unless they withdraw their retaliatory tariffs. And what’s worrying is that the market has a history of not believing Trump’s words till the “panic” moment in the recent few months. Market has recently always been in the “nothing ever happens” mindset, right up till the moment it happens.
Not sure why Trump did it this way but he has effectively boxed himself in. Having issued this warning to China pushes both sides to a confrontation. China has stated that they’ll fight till the end. Ball is in Trump’s court now — either he backs down now as the boy who cried wolf or he has to issue an additional 50% tariff on China tmr.
Maybe they reach an agreement tn/tmr, who knows. But it’s never too late to join the “nothing ever happens” camp tmr instead of today. Just my 2cs
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Pivot Point Capital
Futures ripping currently, climbing a wall of worry. Seems retail-friendly stocks like $PLTR are performing the best, might be indicative of flows. Urging caution before Apr 9. Trump has mentioned an additional 50% tariff on China unless they withdraw their…
Indices closed red after gaining ~4% in early session.
Fading market’s disbelief of trump’s actions has been such an incredulous source of alpha.
Shorted in small size $AAPL @ $170.75, $PYPL @ $56.58, $V @ $304.98, $NKE @ $52.67 for the continuation of a recession play.
Fading market’s disbelief of trump’s actions has been such an incredulous source of alpha.
Shorted in small size $AAPL @ $170.75, $PYPL @ $56.58, $V @ $304.98, $NKE @ $52.67 for the continuation of a recession play.
Pivot Point Capital
Closed all equity shorts and longs and going long into gold ($GLD). Was contemplating between long duration bonds ($TLT) or $GLD, but ultimately decided $GLD as $TLT carries FX risk w $USD, which typically deteriorates in trade tensions. Also in trade wars…
US bond yields also now higher than Liberation Day. Think we were right to fade the consensus take on seeking safety in $TLT post L.D.
Key headwinds for US bonds imo are 1) foreign countries dumping treasuries/reduced buying pressure from foreign countries if global trade slows & 2) higher supply-driven inflation from tariffs holding back Fed from cutting, even when at the expense of growth
Key headwinds for US bonds imo are 1) foreign countries dumping treasuries/reduced buying pressure from foreign countries if global trade slows & 2) higher supply-driven inflation from tariffs holding back Fed from cutting, even when at the expense of growth
Yuan has also started weakening - not sure if natural market forces or deliberate weakening by PBOC. Leaning towards the latter as a counter to US tariffs as weaker yuan reduces cost of China exports. Might be seen as an escalation on China side by Trump.
Reinforces my conviction in $GLD; 1) if global trade is being entirely reoriented w escalation of trade war, alternative forms of reserves from USD will be explored and required, and 2) CNY weakening may also cause capital flight into $GLD.
On 2), will also go long some $SGD.CNH FX pair in the AM
I’m never a macro guy (forced to by the climate), just learning on the go. Some of my macro takes may and will be wrong -- feel free to give feedback!
Reinforces my conviction in $GLD; 1) if global trade is being entirely reoriented w escalation of trade war, alternative forms of reserves from USD will be explored and required, and 2) CNY weakening may also cause capital flight into $GLD.
On 2), will also go long some $SGD.CNH FX pair in the AM
I’m never a macro guy (forced to by the climate), just learning on the go. Some of my macro takes may and will be wrong -- feel free to give feedback!
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Long $1810.HK @ $39.21 as a hedge to the rest of our positions which are exposed to the worsening of the trade war/recession. Given that most of Xiaomi’s sales are from ex-US, and also a significant portion from ex-China, I think the yuan weakening (intl) + stimulus (domestic) + affordable quality everything company <> China slowdown (domestic) could end up being a net benefit to the company.
Riskier trade obv so just a small starting position for now.
Riskier trade obv so just a small starting position for now.
Pivot Point Capital
Bessent, bond salesman of the Greatest Country on Earth, has fallen
Would hate to be Powell right now. Hands are tied w a 6-inch rope. Think he has to speak soon to address this — potential upside risk to shorts so trim if you have to.
6 hours since the 104% tariffs went into effect… eerily quiet on the China front except for this paper w 6 relevant words “resolving disputes through dialogue and consultation”.
Feels to me like giving Trump a 后路 to 下台. Can see potential removal of 50% tariffs + potential Fed intervention speech tonight; so leaning more ST bullish
Long $NVDA @ $98.7 & $HOOD @$34.3
Feels to me like giving Trump a 后路 to 下台. Can see potential removal of 50% tariffs + potential Fed intervention speech tonight; so leaning more ST bullish
Long $NVDA @ $98.7 & $HOOD @$34.3
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Pivot Point Capital
6 hours since the 104% tariffs went into effect… eerily quiet on the China front except for this paper w 6 relevant words “resolving disputes through dialogue and consultation”. Feels to me like giving Trump a 后路 to 下台. Can see potential removal of 50% tariffs…
Ok scrap those longs, luck of the draw
Pivot Point Capital
Ok scrap those longs, luck of the draw
Closed all shorts when the bad news = good price. Longed $NVDA @ $100.47, $HOOD @ $36.91 on 90 days pause
#1 most humbling takeaway for me from past few weeks is that it was not the market refusing to believe in trump until the moment it happened, but that the market knew that self imposed austerity could be reversed in a finger snap, and thus only waited up till the last second to price the outcome in.
Current positions: all are longs. Trimming half of $81810.HK here as worried that U.S. might incentivise other countries to isolate China in exchange for good trade deals. Bessent: “US may approach China as a group”.
YTD: -2.48%. Ngl my execution has been crap. Bailed out by DT yesterday but good outcome does not mean good process — need to improve execution and maintaining conviction in choppy times.
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Outlook: Still think there’s LT downside, baseline tariffs + China 125% still a significant drag on growth. Q2 earnings starting soon and companies are pulling guidance due to uncertainty, nvr a good sign.
That said, this has the makings of a hated bear market rally.. rapid move upwards catching many short/sidelined (marginal buyers present), PTSD inducing people to TP too early, we also learnt the existence of a “Trump put” (~5% 30Y UST, ~4.5% 10Y UST, ~4,800 SPX, wanting to avoid a severe recession).
TLDR I’m on the fence. Positioned for ST upside but as you can tell, I change my mind frequently.
YTD: -2.48%. Ngl my execution has been crap. Bailed out by DT yesterday but good outcome does not mean good process — need to improve execution and maintaining conviction in choppy times.
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Outlook: Still think there’s LT downside, baseline tariffs + China 125% still a significant drag on growth. Q2 earnings starting soon and companies are pulling guidance due to uncertainty, nvr a good sign.
That said, this has the makings of a hated bear market rally.. rapid move upwards catching many short/sidelined (marginal buyers present), PTSD inducing people to TP too early, we also learnt the existence of a “Trump put” (~5% 30Y UST, ~4.5% 10Y UST, ~4,800 SPX, wanting to avoid a severe recession).
TLDR I’m on the fence. Positioned for ST upside but as you can tell, I change my mind frequently.
Pivot Point Capital
Current positions: all are longs. Trimming half of $81810.HK here as worried that U.S. might incentivise other countries to isolate China in exchange for good trade deals. Bessent: “US may approach China as a group”. YTD: -2.48%. Ngl my execution has been…
TP longs into gold. Market weaker than I thought.
Yields continuing to rise. Gold ATH. Dollar finally starting to fall. Yucks
Yields continuing to rise. Gold ATH. Dollar finally starting to fall. Yucks
Pivot Point Capital
TP longs into gold. Market weaker than I thought. Yields continuing to rise. Gold ATH. Dollar finally starting to fall. Yucks
Trump admin may have lost control of the narrative.
Pivot Point Capital
Preview for next week: While we may see some mean reverting bounces driven by dip buyers next week, given that sentiments are pretty bad, I think for the most part, any rallies will not be sustainable and will be faded. The catalyst path forward for further…
Maybe I’m a dirty PANICIAN but gut says something is up. Yields back at pre-tweet levels, DXY finally starting to unravel. More worryingly, markets were not saved despite DT’s tweet, signs of loss of narrative control/confidence. Might require a “whatever it takes” action soon from the Fed.
China keeping mum about all of these is also.. interesting. They prob know that US was self-goaling its own economy w 145% tariffs. DT’s nice comments about Xi yesterday has (desperately) set the stage up for a call, so if this does happen then maybe it’s a catalyst for a long. If China is going to take up DT’s invitation, it should be within a week. So 3 things that can resolve well for a long: 1) China call, 2) complete walk back of tariffs, 3) “whatever it takes” moment from the Fed. Otherwise, I’m very pessimistic
I think as the trade war progresses, we will see a trend of 1) increased local stimulus to aid export sectors + 2) global currency debasement globally to remain export competitive, all of which are tailwinds for $GLD. Afterall, fiat is just a faith game at the end of the day. Who will be the final backstop?
China keeping mum about all of these is also.. interesting. They prob know that US was self-goaling its own economy w 145% tariffs. DT’s nice comments about Xi yesterday has (desperately) set the stage up for a call, so if this does happen then maybe it’s a catalyst for a long. If China is going to take up DT’s invitation, it should be within a week. So 3 things that can resolve well for a long: 1) China call, 2) complete walk back of tariffs, 3) “whatever it takes” moment from the Fed. Otherwise, I’m very pessimistic
I think as the trade war progresses, we will see a trend of 1) increased local stimulus to aid export sectors + 2) global currency debasement globally to remain export competitive, all of which are tailwinds for $GLD. Afterall, fiat is just a faith game at the end of the day. Who will be the final backstop?
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Pivot Point Capital
Maybe I’m a dirty PANICIAN but gut says something is up. Yields back at pre-tweet levels, DXY finally starting to unravel. More worryingly, markets were not saved despite DT’s tweet, signs of loss of narrative control/confidence. Might require a “whatever…
China’s comments. Seems like describing allies’ trade deals overtures as “kissing my ass” is not a good way to get others on the line