A Trillion United States Dollars for Micron Technology $MU

Who’s next? Team blue?

Built up a mid-size $SMTC long position at $147 in commons and calls, which has exposure to both copper and optics. One of the stronger optics names past week. Earnings tonight

Power names have gone vertical as market starts taking the 800V transition more seriously

$VICR @ $340 from $200
$NVTS @ $32 from $14.5
$WOLF @ $75 from $38
$STM @ $71 from $63
$CORZ @ $26 from $19
Also added $ENPH @ $49, now $67.5

Very speculative basket as I'm optimising for torque here, so caution should be exercised. Despite this, the 800V transition and the obstacles that come with it, along with the companies positioned to solve it, are very much real. For blue chips, maybe $IFX and $ON.

Added a long on $PURR @ $9

- partially hedging out my crypto related shorts $COIN $CRCL
- Hyperliquid is probably the one of maybe 5 valuable crypto protocols to emerge in the past 5 years.
- 24/7 and pre-IPO perpetual markets is a major tailwind for HYPE given the numerous mega IPOs upcoming in 2026/27
- if DATs make a comeback, PURR has an add. benefit of mNAV expansion. Ex high finance mgmt seems to know how to optimise dilution too

Trimmed 10% of my memory exposure $SNDK $MU last Friday, and added more $LITE @ $830 during the dip. Also picked up $AXTI @ $115

Optics has chopped lately but nothing has changed about the thesis. After memory, interconnect is probably the next lowest hanging fruit

Google’s equity raise and Marvell’s Computex presentation this week should help refocus the market’s attention back on this theme

$SHAK guidance cut sending tremors across other fast casual / consumer discretionary

Just reported a month ago so it’s intg why they had to cut guidance in such a short timeframe. Consumer deterioration accelerating?

Boils down to this.. maybe there are indeed only two trades in the market after all.. hamburgers aren’t even an AI bottleneck

Saylor sells $2.5m of BTC and BTC immediately shits the bed. I don’t see a resolution to that overhang anytime soon. If you’re long crypto, you’re basically hoping for a revival of animal spirits. But you’re also competing with AI for attention and retail flows.

Not to mention the upcoming midterms, can’t see crypto going anywhere if Trump admin disappoints.

Idk, counterpoint is that the asset class has gone through worse and survived still so I may be wrong. But even excluding the industry view, I’m still bearish on $COIN and $CRCL for idiosyncratic reasons as explained above

$AVGO print causing a sell off in semis, but I actually think it readthroughs pretty well for our coverage 🤷‍♂️

$LULU cuts FY guidance and cites drop off in traffic. Signs of further consumer deterioration? Competitive pressures? Product fatigue? Probably a mix of all 3. Margins are also collapsing from inverse operating lvg, and not to mention the revolving door of CEOs (incoming one from NKE……….)

$FIVE also guided to a consumer deceleration and ongoing tariff impacts in 2H this week. Sales has accelerated from Squishy Dumpling (its real) but now question is what’s next after the one-off viral trend dies off?

https://x.com/deitaone/status/2062548404459147736?s=46

If you spend enough time in these roles, or facing these roles, you start to realise how much the job involves making shit up with a source: trust me. Elon will get his valuation and trillionaire status, GS will get their fees, retail… well we don’t talk abt that here

$SPCX

$MU print prob more nail biting than any WC matches. Print looks good

This print was all about SCAs. Earnings expansion (2023-2025) now turns into multiple expansion (2026+)

SCAs / LTAs increases earnings visibility, and thus drives multiple expansion. Now at 40% of rev, probably grows

Peak EPS may be lower bc of locked in price ceiling associated with SCAs

Maybe peak EPS ~$180? 8x p/e? 10x? Or how many x if (big if) 80% of rev becomes SCAs? At 80%, is Micron even a cyclical company anymore?

Past convo w an ex-boss. In a most simplistic way, can think of the past few years as a transfer of market cap / value creation from hyperscalers to semis

I still think govt steps in eventually to provide funding if the hyperscalers start to dry up. Too large of a national security issue to let the lack of a printable currency be the bottleneck

Closed out $COIN short @ $150 for +25% gain and $CRCL @ $71 for +43% gain yesterday

Still bearish on crypto but trying to lower gross. Also crypto burns my margin limits lol. And maybe Trump tries one last scam pump before the midterms.

Saylor overhang biggest issue w no easy resolution, then post-midterms environment, then threat of AI / Quantum to crypto security in the long term. A shame, the industry could have been so much more if they were half as focused on ST grifts

Partial nationalisation + govt funding still my base outcome. Expect to see more of this as while AI is critical for national security, I dont think society will be ok with AI benefits accruing to 1% of the companies (semis) while the remaining 99% are displaced by AI (ex-semis). There has to be some form of wealth distribution here. Still thinking through the different potential outcomes and winners and losers.