Broken Clock
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Forwarded from Monitoring The Situation
The surprise visit by the director of the CIA to Moscow this week was to deliver a warning to Russia not to attack NATO countries, according to people briefed on the visit.

A shortfall in critical Western munitions, driven by expenditures in the Iran war, also could factor into Putin’s thinking. The U.S. has degraded its stockpile of certain weapons because of transfers to Ukraine after Russia’s 2022 invasion, as well as the Iran conflict.

The last known visit by a CIA director to Moscow was in November 2021, when William Burns, who led the agency under former President Joe Biden, warned Putin not to attack Ukraine.

(Putin starting another front)
MRNA holding up in there, doesn't want to give me my back 100 entry. I will be patient
Broken Clock
If I could find a great expression to this pair trade I would probably full port: -Long AI progress -Short AI adoption
A good long for AI progress might be AI robotic, relatively umpunped and hard to believe we won't start making very rapid progress there
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I have a proud american portoflio: long 30y and long NQ (bad entry though so mid size)
Wouldn't chase here, NVDA has a recent history of selling in the few sessions following earnings
I don't know if this is bullish or not?
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As often Singapore is leading the way, but I think the price is a lot higher
As long as having a kid involve serious financial restraints birthrates won't recover. Not debating if it's a good or bad thing, it's pretty clear that people are not as willing to have kids if it involves a financial sacrifice.
This is worldwide, not at all a Singaporean thing
Either government shoulder most of the cost of having a kid or they won't have more
Imagine if you can have business flights, 5 stars hotel, Michelin restaurants with 1 kid or you have to stay in economy, 4 stars hotel and much less restaurant and less living space for an extra kid
For an increasing number people today the choice is moving to #1
And it stays true at all income ladders except the highest ones
If you're lower income, are you willing to have a second kid if it means they're cramped in the same room and you have to watch your monthly expense?
I think the pendulum has swang way too far into it being increasingly hard to have kids, governments are starting to react but we're very far from the level of efforts needed
It will takes dozens of years for people to understand the scale of the issue and take the necessary steps (more support and more taxes)
All those studies showing financial incentives don't work are pathetic.
Am I going to go for a kid because I get a free stroller and 10 free GP visit?
Probably the same people advocating for degrowth to fight climate change
I really hope this new SG initiative work a little because otherwise people will criticize financial incentives even more when the clear problem is that the adequate threshold has not been reached
Give 500k per child tmr and within 2y your TFR is way above 2.1
A Singaporean citizen is worth 1m$ today in terms of lifelong taxes (pension excluded completely)
This doesn't count all the value of the work produced by said citizen over his lifetime which also benefit the country
And it's in the case of Singapore being a very low tax country