Oil down 10% now lol, just as the oil bulls were crazy loud

Nikkei and Kospi already back to Friday lows

Really not sure about what to think about this ceasefire news.
Seems real, matches both sides constraints, but it doesn't really solve anything for anyone so doesn't seem sustainable

Will be interesting to see if gold can pump into FOMC and during, so far it got the ich everytime Warsh was scheduled to speak

My bet is Warsh tries to sound as hawksish as possible without changing anything to get his street cred up and the market do part of the tightening for him

Crossing his toe nails that the war is over by the next one and he can obey master Trump and cut rates

I'm starting to think that all those people buying short term options to protect of temporary drawdown create an invisible floor on indexes

My position is to be a long term investor I'm not paid to carrry FOMC risk > I buy puts
I don't underwrite war risk > I buy puts
I think the AI buble might pop I need to protect my folio > I buy puts

There is nobody left to sell

Meanwhile asset managers are long only and never sell anyway

+ 401k underlying bid

Apple and the Chinese brands have shown the benefits of tight integrated companies after we spent 40y disintegrating them

The best companies of tmr will be the one that reintegrate all the value chain and the one created vertically integrated from the start

We're making SoftBank build DC now? A small 10 Gigawatt DC

Significant AI correction, renewed US-Iran war, oil up 40% from the bottom, bonds at the lowest in a year and SPX couldn't take its end of June low

It will be hilarious if SPX goes to the highs again honestly

People bought hedges unless the worst case materialize for each of those events it creates a bounce

Regardless of what valuations are

So yeah unless Iran - US war restart or Warsh hikes I think we going green this week

It's a big lesson to try going back in time to 2022 and predict among the people around you and twitter, the media who would be bullish or bearish on AI capabilities in 2026.
I'm pretty sure you'd have a 90% hit rate.
Beliefs > evidences.