No other option, the settlement on the table today is worse than a couple of months back. He would be stabbed the day after the signature
Forwarded from Monitoring The Situation
PUTIN IS PREPARING A FURTHER MOBILIZATION IN RUSSIA AND AN EXPANSION OF THE WAR
Tensions raise, then diffuse but only to reach a new high, the trend is clear
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Broken Clock
All the panican sold in early July so until we get a catalyst we will hang in there
Everybody is thinking I don't want to be left behind when Trump Taco again, I already suffered a drawdown, maybe we go down another 5% on ES but I'm not gonna sell
Oil going up 3%+ per day it's not gonna last very long before Trump is squeezed, the bond market is nearly breaking already
So we're very vulnerable to a very unlikely shock that sends everything -10% in a day
And see how you like seeing all the docking ports around Hormuz get obliterated and oil send to 120 or much more not just for a couple of days but for years
The market reads rightly that Google increased capex commitment is bullish for DC providers but if you go one step further, if hyperscaler stock get punished and enter bear market because of their huge spending, they probably going to cut their spending right at the time the Nebius and SKHY and the like expand massively production and those stocks are going to poopoo the hardest
Broken Clock pinned «The market reads rightly that Google increased capex commitment is bullish for DC providers but if you go one step further, if hyperscaler stock get punished and enter bear market because of their huge spending, they probably going to cut their spending right…»
Broken Clock
One lesson I learned painfully with gold at the start of the year is that story / thesis can be intact but the price action can nevertheless be broken, for that reason I think it's best to ignore DRAM / memory completely for a while, even if you will likely…
And that is without taking into account the positioning, yes leverage got washed out but I don't feel the infinite cycle people sold their stocks
And that is without taking into account an escalation in the middle east as I was saying yesterday
Or even a extension of the current stalemate which will send inflation high enough at a moment where the job market is healthy that a hike is back on the table
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In short, the risk you're underwritting being long stocks here is pretty crazy