Winning like never before

Didn't exactly come in line. Small hiccup but enough to invalidate my theory that they would play with the data enough to make it look perfectly disinflationary.
And in the meantime oil is at 100$ so the case for a hike is materialy stronger than even 2 weeks ago when Warsh did his speech.
I was wrong, market is correctly anticipating a hike even if yes a hold surprise could still come.
This definitely put a ceiling on stocks and gold, most likely call for downside as well. How much remains to be seen as it is also highly dependent on oil. If oil cool down this should support stocks.

The high we did in oil this week is notable, it was when everyone considered the E/W blown up. Then came the denial, price retraced, then finally Saudis confirmed the hit. What is still unclear is how extensive the damages are, but still noticeable oil didn't rally back to the highs, probably cooled by Monday meeting.

The worst outcome for the US on Monday the better for oil price and thus somehow not that bad (short term) for the US

Maybe the US isn't against some kind of agreement between gulf strate and Iran actually to lower prices before the mid terms

But there is no question that Trump will tore it down once midterms will be done

It took Astra high 14sec to produce this excellent summary:

I would probably need 2 to 6h to produce a summary not even as good

It seems like a relatively simple pb but just a year ago it would take o3 several min and cost several $ to do this job.

I think however it's a good test

When a task becomes solved for, it becomes virtually free and instaneous in 1y time

If you start doing some prospective thinking assuming capabilities continue improving at current rate (no acceleration) the world becomes a very different place relatively soon

Most likely AI stocks will dump regardless of if the pause is implemented or not
Dump first and then assess

If there is nothing out of the Gulf state - Iran meeting, if the fed decides to hike and with a hawkish presser, if the pause talk intensify even more this will be a RED week

The pause

This is an AI trade buy opportunity imo, but they seem keen on selling hard first