The cherry on the cake would be the gulf state agreeing with Iran on Monday to no more attacks in exchange for booting US bases out of the region completely
This would be an absolutely catastrophic loss for the US, but don't worry, pro Trump would still count that as a win no matter what
Broken Clock
Table selection is key to performance and Trump and his team of retards are way out of their league
The US is restricting oil‑tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz during designated US air‑defense windows - FT
Broken Clock
August print is going to *magically* come in line
Didn't exactly come in line. Small hiccup but enough to invalidate my theory that they would play with the data enough to make it look perfectly disinflationary.
And in the meantime oil is at 100$ so the case for a hike is materialy stronger than even 2 weeks ago when Warsh did his speech.
I was wrong, market is correctly anticipating a hike even if yes a hold surprise could still come.
This definitely put a ceiling on stocks and gold, most likely call for downside as well. How much remains to be seen as it is also highly dependent on oil. If oil cool down this should support stocks.
And in the meantime oil is at 100$ so the case for a hike is materialy stronger than even 2 weeks ago when Warsh did his speech.
I was wrong, market is correctly anticipating a hike even if yes a hold surprise could still come.
This definitely put a ceiling on stocks and gold, most likely call for downside as well. How much remains to be seen as it is also highly dependent on oil. If oil cool down this should support stocks.
The high we did in oil this week is notable, it was when everyone considered the E/W blown up. Then came the denial, price retraced, then finally Saudis confirmed the hit. What is still unclear is how extensive the damages are, but still noticeable oil didn't rally back to the highs, probably cooled by Monday meeting.
The worst outcome for the US on Monday the better for oil price and thus somehow not that bad (short term) for the US
Maybe the US isn't against some kind of agreement between gulf strate and Iran actually to lower prices before the mid terms
But there is no question that Trump will tore it down once midterms will be done
It seems like a relatively simple pb but just a year ago it would take o3 several min and cost several $ to do this job.
When a task becomes solved for, it becomes virtually free and instaneous in 1y time
If you start doing some prospective thinking assuming capabilities continue improving at current rate (no acceleration) the world becomes a very different place relatively soon