Broken Clock
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The first day this week we don't hear (yet) of major attacks in the strait and oil is immediately weak.
I don't expect the peace to continue necessarily but it's noticeable that at those prices it has baked in a lot of uncertainty
Broken Clock
And you think that the FED is independently making decisions?
I went long Sept. fed rate, small size.
The road to no hike comes to tampering with CPI data tmr so I should position now and if CPI comes in hot then i exit (at a loss but smaller than waiting FOMC)
Bessent boat is seriously taking on water
He will have to do (a lot) more printing
Astra shows about 0% improvment on ressource allocation vs 5.6.
He burnt through 30% of my weekly allowance just doing an endless loop of testing on a an evolutionary phase of my project.
It didn't happen once with Fable as the orchestrator.
Fable is way ahead of Astra despite all the hype this last one received
Chatgpt models are good dogs, they do exactly what they're told but you shouldn't let them make a single decision, it goes wrong maybe 50% of the time
I cannot believe that Trump is not telling the truth, unfathomable
"no more forever wars"
Nice
Between Bessent yday disapointing on the amount of bond purchase after talking a big game and Trump adding potentially 1.3tn$ deficit overnight they're not doing exactly what is needed to save the bond market
The team "they have no idea what they're doing" is scoring some points
I don't see anything in this PPI warranting a hike so I stay on no hike
Market seeing it clearly differently
Well, with oil doing +8% above 100$ this forces Warsh hand a lot more
Still playing the hold, my folio is gonna take a serious DD if i'm wrong but I'm fine with it
Risk bottomed for this week imo; but next week could get spicy if this doesn't work + hike