Given where the $ is if Mr Warsh hikes equities will take a beating like NEVER BEFORE
If I get to ride 29k to much higher I will have been happy with my year despite missing entirely the first AI leg
They're likely going to do another round like the previous 2y of eggrarious actions start of the year and you get to ride the dip again
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Now we wait for Bessent to buy all the 30Y on the auction
Woops I got confused, today is about the 10y and 20y
I'm willing to bet heavily scenario Extreme is not going to happen, and we're at best going to be at the high mark for Substantial; and we better be above modest to justify the buble and refund the debt
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Woops I got confused, today is about the 10y and 20y
in line, nothing burger, I think market was expecting / hoping for slightly more
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Doesn't help that oil above 92$, from here things can accelerate to the upside rather violently
Market has been ignoring oil for now; but how long will it last?
I think I will be waiting for the decision with the finger on the market buy a gazillions gold contract if they hold rates
The first day this week we don't hear (yet) of major attacks in the strait and oil is immediately weak.
I don't expect the peace to continue necessarily but it's noticeable that at those prices it has baked in a lot of uncertainty
I don't expect the peace to continue necessarily but it's noticeable that at those prices it has baked in a lot of uncertainty
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And you think that the FED is independently making decisions?
I went long Sept. fed rate, small size.
The road to no hike comes to tampering with CPI data tmr so I should position now and if CPI comes in hot then i exit (at a loss but smaller than waiting FOMC)
The road to no hike comes to tampering with CPI data tmr so I should position now and if CPI comes in hot then i exit (at a loss but smaller than waiting FOMC)