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#BTC UPDATE 8/12/2025📈☄️

In my view, this weekly candle is showing a strong reaction from a major demand zone, which suggests the downside move may have exhausted for now. If the market can maintain structure above this recent higher low, I think we could see continuation toward the 107k–115k weekly supply block.✔️🔝

That zone is where I’m expecting the next big decision to happen. There’s a lot of trapped buyers from earlier distribution up there, so if price reaches it, I’ll be watching closely for weakness or bearish signals to form — potentially the next major short setup.📉💥

As long as we stay above the weekly support and maintain bullish momentum, the path of least resistance in the short term looks upward. But once supply is tapped, I still believe a larger correction could follow.
💥🔼For now: bullish short-term, but medium-term caution remains.

📌🔥 The market continues to respect the rejection at the Value Area High (VAH) and the EMA50 on the H1 timeframe, confirming that sellers are still maintaining control. Price action remains within a bearish intraday structure, forming consistent lower highs, while liquidity still lies beneath the recent swing low—marking our primary downside target.

👀Orderflow signals also support this continuation: sellers are actively absorbing buy pressure, and the rising open interest during downward movements suggests strong participation from short positions rather than passive selling. From a volume profile perspective, the current price is positioned near the upper boundary of the value area, which statistically favors a rotation toward the Point of Control and potentially the lower range boundary.🔝

Our targets will focus first on the previous local low for partial profit-taking, then move toward the lower demand region if momentum remains strong. There is also potential for deeper liquidity sweeps should bearish pressure intensify. Risk management is crucial at this stage—stop losses should not be widened under any condition, and we will shift stops to breakeven once the price approaches the initial demand zone to secure profits.➕💵

This short thesis becomes invalid if the market breaks out and confirms above VAH with a clear bullish structure and notable buy-side imbalance. If price stalls without delivering a downward continuation today, we will continue to monitor the setup into Wednesday night or Thursday, provided the market remains within the current distribution zone. 📊🚨

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📌The Federal Funds Rate is expected to decrease from 4.00% previously to a forecasted 3.75%, signaling the beginning of a controlled shift toward a more accommodative U.S. monetary policy. Inflation has eased meaningfully, with Core PCE falling toward the mid-2% range, while labor market conditions continue to cool — job openings and hiring momentum are declining, and consumer debt stress is rising as high borrowing costs persist. These factors give the Federal Reserve room to adjust interest rates lower without risking an immediate spike in inflation.💥

🔥Given the consistency of data and the Fed’s recent tone, the most realistic scenario is that the Actual rate will match the forecast at 3.75%. This gradual 0.25% cut provides economic support while preserving flexibility for future decisions. A deeper cut to 3.50% remains unlikely but would indicate that the Fed views the slowdown as more severe.🔝

🔥A rate cut of this scale would likely pressure the U.S. dollar lower, reducing real yields and improving broader liquidity conditions — all typically favorable for risk assets. In this environment, BTC is positioned to respond positively. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like crypto and often drive increased speculative capital into the market. If 3.75% is confirmed and the FOMC statement signals ongoing cuts into 2025, BTC could experience a short-term bullish breakout, potentially extending upside momentum toward major resistance zones.👀🟢

❌However, if the Fed delivers a hawkish tone — implying fewer future cuts or maintaining caution over inflation risks — BTC may react with only a limited move upward or even a short-term correction before stabilizing. Market sensitivity to the projected rate path remains high.🪙

📈Overall, a confirmed shift away from peak rates would reinforce the existing medium-term bullish outlook for BTC, supporting a narrative of improving liquidity, weaker USD, and renewed investor appetite, which could sustain a continuation of the current uptrend into 2026.⛏🪙💵

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☝️As i have mentioned before

Time for long, it's not too late 🟢👀

💵🚀Time to get ready