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Patrick Technical Analysis
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Patrick Technical Analysis
$BTC PLAN SUCCESS BTC played out exactly like the last setup clean rejection from 116.2K and straight dump after the retest, just as planned. Price is following structure perfectly; bears still in control and momentum lining up with the move. Now I’m watching…
$BTC UPDATE 15/10/2025
BTC bounced exactly from the local support around 109K, but the move looks more like a corrective retrace than a reversal.
Price is still below key EMAs, structure stays bearish.
Likely scenario: a short squeeze toward 115–116K to grab liquidity, then another leg down once demand fades.
If bulls can’t reclaim 116K, next target sits around 107K–105K.
Bias stays bearish until we see a strong daily close back above 117K with solid volume. 👀
BTC bounced exactly from the local support around 109K, but the move looks more like a corrective retrace than a reversal.
Price is still below key EMAs, structure stays bearish.
Likely scenario: a short squeeze toward 115–116K to grab liquidity, then another leg down once demand fades.
If bulls can’t reclaim 116K, next target sits around 107K–105K.
Bias stays bearish until we see a strong daily close back above 117K with solid volume. 👀
📣 Fed Chair signals QT is about to stop
In last night's statement, Mr. Powell said the Fed is approaching the point of ending quantitative tightening (QT) and moving into a stabilization phase. He emphasized that the Fed is closely monitoring indicators to make appropriate decisions.
Although he did not mention the possibility of quantitative easing (QE), once entering a neutral state (stopping QT), the Fed will have more room to shift policy from withdrawing money to injecting money if economic conditions worsen.
Regarding interest rates, Mr. Powell did not give any specific signals about the rate cut roadmap, but comments related to the weakening labor market indicate that monetary easing is being seriously considered.
In summary, although the market expects two more rate cuts this year and some Fed officials support that, the Fed Chair has not made any specific commitments.
In last night's statement, Mr. Powell said the Fed is approaching the point of ending quantitative tightening (QT) and moving into a stabilization phase. He emphasized that the Fed is closely monitoring indicators to make appropriate decisions.
Although he did not mention the possibility of quantitative easing (QE), once entering a neutral state (stopping QT), the Fed will have more room to shift policy from withdrawing money to injecting money if economic conditions worsen.
Regarding interest rates, Mr. Powell did not give any specific signals about the rate cut roadmap, but comments related to the weakening labor market indicate that monetary easing is being seriously considered.
In summary, although the market expects two more rate cuts this year and some Fed officials support that, the Fed Chair has not made any specific commitments.
$ETH UPDATE 16/10/2025
ETH touched down 35xx demand zone and immediately bounced up to 42xx. Witnessing a significant increase in the smaller timeframe and a decent retest after the HUGE bitcoin's dump days before.
RSI started showing bullish signal on the D timeframe, there could be a possible increase to 455x, where the D supply zone formed, therefore, there will be a small retrace or go back to the previous demand zone which is 368x - 355x.
In a bigger picture, $ETH still showing a positive movement where it could reach a 47xx price in the near future if $BTC and $TOTAL2 catch up with the right momentum of the market. 👀
ETH touched down 35xx demand zone and immediately bounced up to 42xx. Witnessing a significant increase in the smaller timeframe and a decent retest after the HUGE bitcoin's dump days before.
RSI started showing bullish signal on the D timeframe, there could be a possible increase to 455x, where the D supply zone formed, therefore, there will be a small retrace or go back to the previous demand zone which is 368x - 355x.
In a bigger picture, $ETH still showing a positive movement where it could reach a 47xx price in the near future if $BTC and $TOTAL2 catch up with the right momentum of the market. 👀
$BTC & $ETH TAKE PROFIT ❤️
Price tapped right into the 111.0–111.2K imbalance zone, got rejected hard — exactly where the setup was planned.
After that rejection, momentum flipped fast, EMAs crossed down and liquidity below 109K got taken out in one move.
Take-profit landed perfectly at 108.3K as price smashed through low-timeframe support with no bounce.
Whole move was pure liquidity sweep and short continuation from the previous breakdown.
Bias still bearish, watching for retrace to re-short if we get a weak pullback into 110–111K.
Price tapped right into the 111.0–111.2K imbalance zone, got rejected hard — exactly where the setup was planned.
After that rejection, momentum flipped fast, EMAs crossed down and liquidity below 109K got taken out in one move.
Take-profit landed perfectly at 108.3K as price smashed through low-timeframe support with no bounce.
Whole move was pure liquidity sweep and short continuation from the previous breakdown.
Bias still bearish, watching for retrace to re-short if we get a weak pullback into 110–111K.
$BTC UPDATE 17/10/2025
BTC continues to follow the expected breakdown after getting rejected from the 111K–112K zone. The rejection aligned perfectly with the EMA retest and ongoing weakness in RSI, confirming that bears are still in full control.
At the moment, price is hovering around 105K support, which could trigger a temporary bounce or consolidation phase before another leg down. As long as BTC trades below 111K, the overall market structure remains bearish.
If momentum continues, we could see an extended move toward 84K–86K in the coming weeks. Only a strong reclaim and close above 111K with notable buying volume would invalidate this downside scenario and shift short-term sentiment. 👀📉
BTC continues to follow the expected breakdown after getting rejected from the 111K–112K zone. The rejection aligned perfectly with the EMA retest and ongoing weakness in RSI, confirming that bears are still in full control.
At the moment, price is hovering around 105K support, which could trigger a temporary bounce or consolidation phase before another leg down. As long as BTC trades below 111K, the overall market structure remains bearish.
If momentum continues, we could see an extended move toward 84K–86K in the coming weeks. Only a strong reclaim and close above 111K with notable buying volume would invalidate this downside scenario and shift short-term sentiment. 👀📉
$BTC UPDATE 18/10/2025
BTC continues its downward trajectory after another clean rejection from the 111K–112K supply zone. Price broke below short-term support and is now retesting the lower end of the structure around 106K–107K. This area temporarily acts as minor demand, but momentum and volume remain in favor of sellers.
The EMA alignment still points downward, confirming sustained bearish pressure. RSI stays weak, showing no signs of divergence or reversal momentum. Unless BTC reclaims 111K with strong buying volume, rallies into that zone are likely to be sold off.
The next significant target sits around 94K–95K, where historical support and volume accumulation previously occurred. If price reaches that zone, a short-term bounce is possible, but overall structure remains bearish until a weekly close above 112K. 👀📉
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BTC continues its downward trajectory after another clean rejection from the 111K–112K supply zone. Price broke below short-term support and is now retesting the lower end of the structure around 106K–107K. This area temporarily acts as minor demand, but momentum and volume remain in favor of sellers.
The EMA alignment still points downward, confirming sustained bearish pressure. RSI stays weak, showing no signs of divergence or reversal momentum. Unless BTC reclaims 111K with strong buying volume, rallies into that zone are likely to be sold off.
The next significant target sits around 94K–95K, where historical support and volume accumulation previously occurred. If price reaches that zone, a short-term bounce is possible, but overall structure remains bearish until a weekly close above 112K. 👀📉
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$BTC & $ETH UPDATE 22/10/2025
Both BTC and ETH spot CVDs are showing heavy negative readings, indicating consistent selling pressure across spot markets. Although delta remains positive, it suggests that there’s a lack of strong active buying flow — meaning buyers are not in full control despite minor absorption attempts.
This kind of setup often shows that market strength is more passive than organic, with short-term pumps being mainly liquidity-driven rather than supported by true demand. It’s important to be cautious when considering long positions under these conditions.
The safest approach is to only look for long entries once BTC reclaims around the 112K zone with convincing volume confirmation. Until then, the market structure still favors short setups or patience for better long entries at higher confirmations. 👀
Both BTC and ETH spot CVDs are showing heavy negative readings, indicating consistent selling pressure across spot markets. Although delta remains positive, it suggests that there’s a lack of strong active buying flow — meaning buyers are not in full control despite minor absorption attempts.
This kind of setup often shows that market strength is more passive than organic, with short-term pumps being mainly liquidity-driven rather than supported by true demand. It’s important to be cautious when considering long positions under these conditions.
The safest approach is to only look for long entries once BTC reclaims around the 112K zone with convincing volume confirmation. Until then, the market structure still favors short setups or patience for better long entries at higher confirmations. 👀
$BTC UPDATE 23/10/2025
BTC just rebounded strongly from the 107.3K area after forming a local accumulation range. The bounce aligned with RSI bullish divergence and a clear reclaim of the short-term EMA trendline — confirming short-term momentum shift.
Price is now testing into 110K resistance, marking the first real liquidity zone above. A clean breakout and hold above 110.2K could extend the move toward 111.2K, but failure here may trigger another retrace toward 108.5K for structure retest.
As long as 107.9K–108K holds, short-term bias remains bullish, but caution is needed near 110–111K where sellers could reappear.
BTC just rebounded strongly from the 107.3K area after forming a local accumulation range. The bounce aligned with RSI bullish divergence and a clear reclaim of the short-term EMA trendline — confirming short-term momentum shift.
Price is now testing into 110K resistance, marking the first real liquidity zone above. A clean breakout and hold above 110.2K could extend the move toward 111.2K, but failure here may trigger another retrace toward 108.5K for structure retest.
As long as 107.9K–108K holds, short-term bias remains bullish, but caution is needed near 110–111K where sellers could reappear.
$BTC UPDATE 24/10/2025
BTC continues to build strength after reclaiming the 110K zone, maintaining support along the short-term EMA cluster. Momentum remains constructive as buyers steadily absorb sell pressure, suggesting the correction phase is likely complete.
The current structure shows a higher low forming, signaling the potential start of a new impulse leg. A clean break above 111.2K could open the path toward 112.5K–113.5K, with 114K as a possible extension if volume confirms.
As long as price holds above 109.8K and EMAs continue to curve upward, the bullish bias remains intact. Failure to hold this area, however, may trigger a retest toward 108.8K before any further upside continuation.👀
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BTC continues to build strength after reclaiming the 110K zone, maintaining support along the short-term EMA cluster. Momentum remains constructive as buyers steadily absorb sell pressure, suggesting the correction phase is likely complete.
The current structure shows a higher low forming, signaling the potential start of a new impulse leg. A clean break above 111.2K could open the path toward 112.5K–113.5K, with 114K as a possible extension if volume confirms.
As long as price holds above 109.8K and EMAs continue to curve upward, the bullish bias remains intact. Failure to hold this area, however, may trigger a retest toward 108.8K before any further upside continuation.👀
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Access to ICT Trading Guide (Free, no payment needed)
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