ByBit
#BTC/USD Closed at trailing stoploss after reaching take profit ⚠

Yesterday we managed to hit all of our entries for the swing long and managed to scalp a long and secure profits too. However as we continue to chop around above 60k but still below ATH levels around 63k it is important not to let your emotional bias control your trading. Although I am bullish on the HTFs (especially with the weekly closure) there is room for time and a lot of volatility before a more macro upside move might be in store.
Jumping into the MTFs (medium timeframes) - yesterday we played a bullish reclaim of a previous range however after some bullish volume which managed to push PA into 3 of our targets we experienced an equal but opposite push back down. Although its possible we get bullish continuation today... with all the bullish sentiment on CT and the fact that funding rates are really high across all exchanges without big moves in PA makes me believe a flush may be in store. Pair this fundamental analysis with the technical observation of an ascending wedge with regular bearish divergence on both the RSI and MACD and it presents a relatively decent bearish case. This does not invalidate my HTF swing long... just a warning in case we do get a volatile move back down toward 60k. This also present an opportunity which I will look to scalp if we do get confirmation of a breakdown. https://www.tradingview.com/x/lhnLPS1U/

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Following yesterdays rally we have officially broken ATHs once again and we are now in price discovery territory with no structural resistance above - therefore bias is to the upside. Although we saw enough volume enter the market to pump us through local resistance we will need follow-up volume on a retest in order to prevent a fakeout. This brings us to the 2 possible scenarios at this key level.

On the Defense - Bullish Scenario:
In my opinion volatility breakouts are only really worth playing on the HTFs especially with breakouts into price discovery as the upside potential is quite juicy when fomo volatility enters the market. Having said that buying pressure is likely to step into the market if we get a pullback into the 66k region to retest previous ATHs as support. There are some decent orders set for those levels already in the orderbooks but bulls are on the defense here so it will depend on how much pressure the bears can apply. However, if we do get bullish continuation there seems to be a lot of confluence in the 70 - 71.5k region as theoretical resistance or profit taking area.

On the Offense - Bearish Scenario:
In my opinion this is also a great situation and location for a bull trap as HTF breakouts into price discovery naturally attracts a lot of fomo and later buyers as funding rates are already really high across all exchanges which means there is a lot of juicy liquidity sitting below local price levels ripe for the taking. This possible fundamental scenario is backed by the current technical set-up until the bulls are able to invalidate them and hence bears are on the offensive here. Firstly, there is bearish divergence on the RSI and OBV until bulls are able to push these metrics above the red-dotted invalidation levels. I would confirm this breakout as a fakeout if we are able to confirm a "Topping" candle below 69k.

So it really is going to be a fight between MM looking to generate liquidity for big orders (bearish scenario) VS retail/institutional fomo tryna get in on a bullrun (bullish scenario)... so who do you think is going to win here?

Note on the Swing Trade: As the trend is our friend we will hold the long at these levels as long as we don't confirm a local topping signal marking a fakeout (if so - we will have the opportunity to reposition).
Following yesterdays rally we have officially broken ATHs once again and we are now in price discovery territory with no structural resistance above - therefore bias is to the upside. Although we saw enough volume enter the market to pump us through local resistance we will need follow-up volume on a retest in order to prevent a fakeout. This brings us to the 2 possible scenarios at this key level.

On the Defense - Bullish Scenario:
In my opinion volatility breakouts are only really worth playing on the HTFs especially with breakouts into price discovery as the upside potential is quite juicy when fomo volatility enters the market. Having said that buying pressure is likely to step into the market if we get a pullback into the 66k region to retest previous ATHs as support. There are some decent orders set for those levels already in the orderbooks but bulls are on the defense here so it will depend on how much pressure the bears can apply. However, if we do get bullish continuation there seems to be a lot of confluence in the 70 - 71.5k region as theoretical resistance or profit taking area.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ibBKsFcx/

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