Обзор USDA ноябрь 2022
Экспорт пальмового масла из Малайзии достиг своего пика в 2018/19 году, но с тех пор снизился на 15 процентов до 15,5 млн. 2021/22. Спрос снизился в 2021/22 году из-за более слабого экономического роста и очень высоких цен на растительное масло. Кроме того, привлечение иностранной рабочей силы для выращивания и сбора урожая в Малайзия стало проблемой из-за ограничений COVID-19. Несмотря на понижательное давление, с которым столкнулась мировая торговля пальмовым маслом в 2021/22 году, Малайзия увеличила глобальную долю рынка, компенсируя более слабый экспорт Индонезии. В то время как экспорт, по прогнозам, увеличится в 2022/23 году, ождается что доля Малайзия снизится из-за усиления конкуренции со стороны Индонезии.
Экспорт пальмового масла из Малайзии достиг своего пика в 2018/19 году, но с тех пор снизился на 15 процентов до 15,5 млн. 2021/22. Спрос снизился в 2021/22 году из-за более слабого экономического роста и очень высоких цен на растительное масло. Кроме того, привлечение иностранной рабочей силы для выращивания и сбора урожая в Малайзия стало проблемой из-за ограничений COVID-19. Несмотря на понижательное давление, с которым столкнулась мировая торговля пальмовым маслом в 2021/22 году, Малайзия увеличила глобальную долю рынка, компенсируя более слабый экспорт Индонезии. В то время как экспорт, по прогнозам, увеличится в 2022/23 году, ождается что доля Малайзия снизится из-за усиления конкуренции со стороны Индонезии.
Ожидается, что цены CPO останутся бычьими
Несмотря на угрозу рецессии в основных экономиках в следующем году, ожидается, что цены на сырое пальмовое масло (CPO) будут поддерживаться такими факторами, как российско-украинская война, экспортная политика Индонезии, а также доступность удобрений, нехватка рабочей силы и неуверенность в погоде. . Исполнительный директор Малазийской ассоциации пальмового масла (MPOA) Джозеф Тек Чун Йи заявил, что обострение украинско-российского конфликта и плохая погода будут стимулировать спрос на CPO и поддерживать цены.
Несмотря на угрозу рецессии в основных экономиках в следующем году, ожидается, что цены на сырое пальмовое масло (CPO) будут поддерживаться такими факторами, как российско-украинская война, экспортная политика Индонезии, а также доступность удобрений, нехватка рабочей силы и неуверенность в погоде. . Исполнительный директор Малазийской ассоциации пальмового масла (MPOA) Джозеф Тек Чун Йи заявил, что обострение украинско-российского конфликта и плохая погода будут стимулировать спрос на CPO и поддерживать цены.
VEGOILS-Palm oil jumps 2.5% on November exports strength
KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures jumped on Friday as early November exports surged, but the contract remains headed for a weekly loss after declines in the previous three sessions.
The benchmark palm oil contract FCPOc3 for January delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 106 ringgit, or 2.54%, to 4,284 ringgit ($923.87) a tonne in early trade.
For the week, palm is set to fall by 1.9%.
FUNDAMENTALS
Exports from Malaysia during Nov. 1-15 jumped between 12.7% and 33% from the same week in October, as shipments to India and China accelerated, cargo surveyors said on Thursday.
Malaysia's palm oil stocks at end-October expanded for a fifth month to a three-year high of 2.4 million tonnes, Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) data showed on Friday.
October output rose 2.44% from the previous month to 1.81 million tonnes, while exports gained 5.66% to 1.5 million tonnes, according to MPOB.
Dalian's most active soyoil contract DBYcv1 fell 1%, while its palm oil contract DCPcv1 gained 2%. Soyoil prices on the Chicago Board of Trade BOcv1 were up 0.3%.
Palm oil is affected by price movements in related oils as they compete for a share in the global vegetable oils market.
MARKET NEWS
Asian shares spiked higher on Friday, while the dollar nursed steep losses after a smaller-than-expected increase in U.S. consumer prices fuelled hopes that the Federal Reserve could tone down its aggressive pace of interest rate hikes.
KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures jumped on Friday as early November exports surged, but the contract remains headed for a weekly loss after declines in the previous three sessions.
The benchmark palm oil contract FCPOc3 for January delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 106 ringgit, or 2.54%, to 4,284 ringgit ($923.87) a tonne in early trade.
For the week, palm is set to fall by 1.9%.
FUNDAMENTALS
Exports from Malaysia during Nov. 1-15 jumped between 12.7% and 33% from the same week in October, as shipments to India and China accelerated, cargo surveyors said on Thursday.
Malaysia's palm oil stocks at end-October expanded for a fifth month to a three-year high of 2.4 million tonnes, Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) data showed on Friday.
October output rose 2.44% from the previous month to 1.81 million tonnes, while exports gained 5.66% to 1.5 million tonnes, according to MPOB.
Dalian's most active soyoil contract DBYcv1 fell 1%, while its palm oil contract DCPcv1 gained 2%. Soyoil prices on the Chicago Board of Trade BOcv1 were up 0.3%.
Palm oil is affected by price movements in related oils as they compete for a share in the global vegetable oils market.
MARKET NEWS
Asian shares spiked higher on Friday, while the dollar nursed steep losses after a smaller-than-expected increase in U.S. consumer prices fuelled hopes that the Federal Reserve could tone down its aggressive pace of interest rate hikes.
GRAINS-Wheat rises but set for biggest weekly loss in four months
SINGAPORE, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat futures firmed on Friday, but were poised for their biggest weekly drop in four months as expectations of higher world supplies weighed on the market.
Soybeans gained about half a percent, while corn ticked higher.
FUNDAMENTALS
The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Wv1 rose 0.3% to $8.05-1/2 a bushel, as of 0110 GMT, soybeans Sv1 added 0.8% to $14.34-1/4 a bushel and corn Cv1 gained 0.2% to $6.54-3/4 a bushel.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), in its monthly supply-demand report this week, estimated world wheat stocks at 267.82 million tonnes, up slightly from its October outlook of 267.54 million tonnes. Analysts on average had been expecting a small decline to 266.52 million tones.
Wheat is down around 5% so far this week, heading for its biggest weekly loss since mid-July. Soybeans have lost about 2% this week, on track for their first weekly drop in six, and corn is down 4%, heading for its biggest weekly fall since late July.
The USDA's monthly report estimated that U.S. corn and soybean inventories would be bigger than previously thought, as yields of both crops increased from earlier expectations.
Corn futures have faced pressure as the USDA reported weekly export sales of U.S. corn in the week ended Nov. 3 at 265,300 tonnes, below a range of trade expectations for 300,000 tonnes to 650,000 tonnes.
Argentina's major Buenos Aires grains exchange slashed its wheat harvest forecast on Thursday amid a lengthy drought and frosts that have hit crops, but a forecast of rainfall ahead for key farming regions spelled more positive news for soy.
The exchange cut its 2022/23 wheat production outlook to 12.4 million tonnes from 14 million tonnes previously, hot on the heels of a similar cut by the rival Rosario exchange, which forecasts the weakest crop in seven years.
Soaring wheat prices in India could prompt price-cooling measures such as the release of state reserves into the open market while axing the 40% tax on imports, trade and government sources said on Thursday.
Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT corn, soybean, wheat and soymeal futures contracts on Thursday, and net buyers of soyoil futures, traders said.
MARKET NEWS
U.S. stocks jumped, the dollar tanked and Treasury yields tumbled on Thursday as cooler-than-expected inflation data suggested the Federal Reserve's barrage of interest rate hikes are beginning to have their intended effect.
SINGAPORE, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Chicago wheat futures firmed on Friday, but were poised for their biggest weekly drop in four months as expectations of higher world supplies weighed on the market.
Soybeans gained about half a percent, while corn ticked higher.
FUNDAMENTALS
The most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Wv1 rose 0.3% to $8.05-1/2 a bushel, as of 0110 GMT, soybeans Sv1 added 0.8% to $14.34-1/4 a bushel and corn Cv1 gained 0.2% to $6.54-3/4 a bushel.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), in its monthly supply-demand report this week, estimated world wheat stocks at 267.82 million tonnes, up slightly from its October outlook of 267.54 million tonnes. Analysts on average had been expecting a small decline to 266.52 million tones.
Wheat is down around 5% so far this week, heading for its biggest weekly loss since mid-July. Soybeans have lost about 2% this week, on track for their first weekly drop in six, and corn is down 4%, heading for its biggest weekly fall since late July.
The USDA's monthly report estimated that U.S. corn and soybean inventories would be bigger than previously thought, as yields of both crops increased from earlier expectations.
Corn futures have faced pressure as the USDA reported weekly export sales of U.S. corn in the week ended Nov. 3 at 265,300 tonnes, below a range of trade expectations for 300,000 tonnes to 650,000 tonnes.
Argentina's major Buenos Aires grains exchange slashed its wheat harvest forecast on Thursday amid a lengthy drought and frosts that have hit crops, but a forecast of rainfall ahead for key farming regions spelled more positive news for soy.
The exchange cut its 2022/23 wheat production outlook to 12.4 million tonnes from 14 million tonnes previously, hot on the heels of a similar cut by the rival Rosario exchange, which forecasts the weakest crop in seven years.
Soaring wheat prices in India could prompt price-cooling measures such as the release of state reserves into the open market while axing the 40% tax on imports, trade and government sources said on Thursday.
Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT corn, soybean, wheat and soymeal futures contracts on Thursday, and net buyers of soyoil futures, traders said.
MARKET NEWS
U.S. stocks jumped, the dollar tanked and Treasury yields tumbled on Thursday as cooler-than-expected inflation data suggested the Federal Reserve's barrage of interest rate hikes are beginning to have their intended effect.
Запасы пальмового масла в Малайзии на конец октября выросли до трехлетнего максимума.
По данным МРОВ производство пальмового масла в Малайзии увеличилось, запасы продолжили рост и в конце октября достигли трехлетнего максимума.
По данным Совета по пальмовому маслу Малайзии (MPOB), запасы у второго по величине производителя в мире выросли на 3,74% по сравнению с предыдущим месяцем до 2,4 млн тонн, что является самым высоким показателем с сентября 2019 года.
Тем не менее, эта цифра была немного ниже, чем в обзоре Reuters, который оценивает запасы на уровне 2,53 млн тонн.
По данным МРОВ производство пальмового масла в Малайзии увеличилось, запасы продолжили рост и в конце октября достигли трехлетнего максимума.
По данным Совета по пальмовому маслу Малайзии (MPOB), запасы у второго по величине производителя в мире выросли на 3,74% по сравнению с предыдущим месяцем до 2,4 млн тонн, что является самым высоким показателем с сентября 2019 года.
Тем не менее, эта цифра была немного ниже, чем в обзоре Reuters, который оценивает запасы на уровне 2,53 млн тонн.
Национальная комиссия здравоохранения Китая объявила о смягчении ограничений по COVID-19 в стране. На фоне этого фондовые индексы пошли вверх: рынок ожидал отмены ограничений, сковывающих логистику и экономическую активность в стране.
Тайфун Несат замедлил сбор урожая масличной пальмы
По сообщениям USDA Тайфун Несат прошел через северные Филиппины, скорость ветра достигала 75 узлов, уровень осадков - более 100 мм. Условия были неблагоприятными для сезонных полевых работ. Несат усилился над Южно-Китайским морем (максимальная скорость ветра 90 узлов), но ослаб в центральном Вьетнаме. Влажная погода (25–100 мм и более) в Малайзии и соседних частях Индонезии замедлила сбор урожая масличной пальмы.
По сообщениям USDA Тайфун Несат прошел через северные Филиппины, скорость ветра достигала 75 узлов, уровень осадков - более 100 мм. Условия были неблагоприятными для сезонных полевых работ. Несат усилился над Южно-Китайским морем (максимальная скорость ветра 90 узлов), но ослаб в центральном Вьетнаме. Влажная погода (25–100 мм и более) в Малайзии и соседних частях Индонезии замедлила сбор урожая масличной пальмы.
Запасы пальмового масла останутся на высоком уровне до конца года
Аналитик RHB Group Research Хо Ли Ленг сохраняет «нейтральный» рейтинг в отношении плантационного сектора. По ее мнению высокий уровень запасов сохранится до конца года, что будет сдерживать цены на сырое пальмовое масло (CPO). В своей заметке от 11 ноября Хо отмечает, что производство пальмового масла в Малайзии выросло на 2,4% м/м в октябре. Запасы выросли на 3,7% м/м до 2,4 млн тонн, несмотря на рост экспорта на 5,7%. «Приток небольшого количества иностранных рабочих не помогает уменьшить значительную нехватку рабочей силы», — говорит Хо
Аналитик RHB Group Research Хо Ли Ленг сохраняет «нейтральный» рейтинг в отношении плантационного сектора. По ее мнению высокий уровень запасов сохранится до конца года, что будет сдерживать цены на сырое пальмовое масло (CPO). В своей заметке от 11 ноября Хо отмечает, что производство пальмового масла в Малайзии выросло на 2,4% м/м в октябре. Запасы выросли на 3,7% м/м до 2,4 млн тонн, несмотря на рост экспорта на 5,7%. «Приток небольшого количества иностранных рабочих не помогает уменьшить значительную нехватку рабочей силы», — говорит Хо
The Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil (MSPO), the national scheme for oil palm plantations, independent and organised smallholdings, and palm oil processing facilities in Malaysia, was made mandatory from 2020 with the aim of aligning the management of palm oil production with existing national laws and regulations.
Let’s watch a brief interview with Dr. Law Chu Chien from the 7th International Palm Oil Sustainability Conference (IPOSC 2022), on the sustainability issues that are currently faced by the industry.
http://ow.ly/njqc50LAGCa
Let’s watch a brief interview with Dr. Law Chu Chien from the 7th International Palm Oil Sustainability Conference (IPOSC 2022), on the sustainability issues that are currently faced by the industry.
http://ow.ly/njqc50LAGCa
YouTube
IPOSC 2022 - Interview with Dr. Law Chu Chien on MSPO
The Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil (MSPO), the national scheme for oil palm plantations, independent and organised smallholdings, and palm oil processing facilities in Malaysia, was made mandatory from 2020 with the aim of aligning the management of palm…
Indonesia to sell 2.5 million tonnes of palm oil to China - Reuters News
11-Nov-2022 06:01:20 PM
JAKARTA, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Nine Indonesian companies on Friday signed contracts to sell 2.5 million tonnes of palm oil products valued at $2.6 billion to 13 Chinese buyers, the Indonesian trade ministry said in a statement.
The deal was a follow up from President Joko Widodo's state visit to China in July. The Indonesian government initially said China had committed to import an additional 1 million tonnes of Indonesian crude palm oil.
It was unclear over what period of time the deal would be executed.
Indonesia exported 6.6 million tonnes of palm oil products to China in 2021, the trade ministry said.
Indonesian trade minister Zulkifli Hasan said exports to China would not disrupt domestic cooking oil supply as the government has mandated exporters to supply the domestic market to obtain export permits.
"Domestic market obligations and domestic price obligations for cooking oil producers and the crude palm oil industry are still in place to ensure a stable supply of cooking oil raw materials," Zulkifli said in the statement.
The world's top palm oil exporter Indonesia banned the export of palm oil for three weeks starting in late April to rein in rising cooking oil prices which led to a problematic inventory glut.
Jakarta has waived the levy since mid July to encourage exports, but may introduce back the levy in second half of November.
11-Nov-2022 06:01:20 PM
JAKARTA, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Nine Indonesian companies on Friday signed contracts to sell 2.5 million tonnes of palm oil products valued at $2.6 billion to 13 Chinese buyers, the Indonesian trade ministry said in a statement.
The deal was a follow up from President Joko Widodo's state visit to China in July. The Indonesian government initially said China had committed to import an additional 1 million tonnes of Indonesian crude palm oil.
It was unclear over what period of time the deal would be executed.
Indonesia exported 6.6 million tonnes of palm oil products to China in 2021, the trade ministry said.
Indonesian trade minister Zulkifli Hasan said exports to China would not disrupt domestic cooking oil supply as the government has mandated exporters to supply the domestic market to obtain export permits.
"Domestic market obligations and domestic price obligations for cooking oil producers and the crude palm oil industry are still in place to ensure a stable supply of cooking oil raw materials," Zulkifli said in the statement.
The world's top palm oil exporter Indonesia banned the export of palm oil for three weeks starting in late April to rein in rising cooking oil prices which led to a problematic inventory glut.
Jakarta has waived the levy since mid July to encourage exports, but may introduce back the levy in second half of November.
The Guardian: Replace animal farms with micro-organism tanks, say campaigners.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/12/replace-animal-farms-micro-organism-rewilding-food-precision-fermentation-emissions
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/12/replace-animal-farms-micro-organism-rewilding-food-precision-fermentation-emissions
the Guardian
Replace animal farms with micro-organism tanks, say campaigners
Advocates of plant-based protein say 75% of world’s farmland should be rewilded to reduce emissions
REUTERS: Пальмовое масло дорожает благодаря экспорту и повышению налогов в Индонезии
Фьючерсы на малайзийское пальмовое масло укрепились благодаря резкому росту экспорта в начале ноября и решению властей Индонезии поднять базовую цену.
После снижения в течение трех сессий подряд эталонный контракт на пальмовое масло FCPOc3 с поставкой в январе на бирже деривативов Bursa Malaysia вырос на 35 ринггитов, или 0,84%, до 4213 ринггитов (908,17 долларов США) за тонну к полуденному перерыву.
За неделю пальма подешевела на 3,5%.
Фьючерсы на малайзийское пальмовое масло укрепились благодаря резкому росту экспорта в начале ноября и решению властей Индонезии поднять базовую цену.
После снижения в течение трех сессий подряд эталонный контракт на пальмовое масло FCPOc3 с поставкой в январе на бирже деривативов Bursa Malaysia вырос на 35 ринггитов, или 0,84%, до 4213 ринггитов (908,17 долларов США) за тонну к полуденному перерыву.
За неделю пальма подешевела на 3,5%.
До конца года цены на пальмовое масло останутся между 4000 и 4400 ринггитов за тонну - МРОС
Исполнительный директор Малазийского совета по пальмовому маслу (MPOC) Ван Айша Ван Хамид считает, что цены на пальмовое масло останутся между 4000 ринггитов за тонну и 4400 ринггитов за тонну до декабря 2022 года.
«В среднесрочной перспективе важным фактором остаётся продолжающийся конфликт между Россией и Украиной, рост предложения пальмового масла, вероятно, остановится в следующем году.
Исполнительный директор Малазийского совета по пальмовому маслу (MPOC) Ван Айша Ван Хамид считает, что цены на пальмовое масло останутся между 4000 ринггитов за тонну и 4400 ринггитов за тонну до декабря 2022 года.
«В среднесрочной перспективе важным фактором остаётся продолжающийся конфликт между Россией и Украиной, рост предложения пальмового масла, вероятно, остановится в следующем году.
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Be sure to login within this week *(14 - 18 November 2022)* to interact with the speakers by posting your question in the comment section.
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VEGOILS-Palm oil firms on weather worries, stronger ringgit caps gains
KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures rebounded on Tuesday, supported by concerns over stormy weather hurting output, although gains were capped by a stronger ringgit that sparked heavy losses in the previous session.
The benchmark palm oil contract FCPOc3 for January delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 52 ringgit, or 1.26%, to 4,164 ringgit ($907.39) a tonne during early trade.
FUNDAMENTALS
The ringgit MYR=, palm's currency of trade, rose for a third day against the dollar, making the commodity more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Disruptions to palm oil supplies because of tropical storms in top producers Indonesia and Malaysia are expected to continue into the first quarter of 2023, keeping prices strong, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) said on Monday.
MPOB warned of a tough 2023 for the market, with the persistence of global uncertainties in weather, geopolitics and economics that have caused wide price swings this year.
India's palm oil imports in 2021/22 fell 4.8% from a year earlier as overseas buying of soyoil jumped 45.3% to a record high after Indonesia restricted shipments of palm oil, a trade body said on Monday.
Dalian's most-active soyoil contract DBYcv1 fell 0.8%, while its palm oil contract DCPcv1 was down 2.3%. Soyoil prices on the Chicago Board of Trade BOcv1 rose 0.3%.
Palm oil is affected by price movements in related oils as they compete for a share in the global vegetable oils market.
MARKET NEWS
Asian share markets were mixed on Tuesday and oil was weaker as investors sought to digest the economic implications of China's COVID policy adjustments and a rescue package for the country's struggling property sector.
KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures rebounded on Tuesday, supported by concerns over stormy weather hurting output, although gains were capped by a stronger ringgit that sparked heavy losses in the previous session.
The benchmark palm oil contract FCPOc3 for January delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 52 ringgit, or 1.26%, to 4,164 ringgit ($907.39) a tonne during early trade.
FUNDAMENTALS
The ringgit MYR=, palm's currency of trade, rose for a third day against the dollar, making the commodity more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Disruptions to palm oil supplies because of tropical storms in top producers Indonesia and Malaysia are expected to continue into the first quarter of 2023, keeping prices strong, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) said on Monday.
MPOB warned of a tough 2023 for the market, with the persistence of global uncertainties in weather, geopolitics and economics that have caused wide price swings this year.
India's palm oil imports in 2021/22 fell 4.8% from a year earlier as overseas buying of soyoil jumped 45.3% to a record high after Indonesia restricted shipments of palm oil, a trade body said on Monday.
Dalian's most-active soyoil contract DBYcv1 fell 0.8%, while its palm oil contract DCPcv1 was down 2.3%. Soyoil prices on the Chicago Board of Trade BOcv1 rose 0.3%.
Palm oil is affected by price movements in related oils as they compete for a share in the global vegetable oils market.
MARKET NEWS
Asian share markets were mixed on Tuesday and oil was weaker as investors sought to digest the economic implications of China's COVID policy adjustments and a rescue package for the country's struggling property sector.