📊📊Gold slips after FOMC Meeting Minutes
The gold (XAU) price fell by 0.4% on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve's (Fed) May Meeting Minutes release. The report highlighted policymakers’ growing concerns about persistent inflationary pressures and emerging weaknesses in the labour market.
👉Possible effects for traders
At its May meeting, the Fed held interest rates steady for the third consecutive time. The Fed reaffirmed its data-dependent approach amid growing economic fragility. While acknowledging the continued resilience of certain economic indicators, officials also noted a downgrade in growth projections and an elevated risk of recession.
Escalating trade tensions and the potential impact of proposed tariffs amplified concerns, heightening economic uncertainty. The Fed's tone reflected a more cautious outlook, signalling that downside risks to the economy are becoming harder to ignore. Fed officials, including New York Fed President John Williams, emphasised the importance of responding decisively if inflation deviates from the central bank's 2% target. This signals a readiness to proactively adjust monetary policy to maintain price stability, even as broader economic conditions grow more complex.
XAUUSD continued to fall during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, U.S. Jobless Claims will come out at 12:30 p.m. UTC. The data may offer insight into U.S. labour market conditions and shape interest rate expectations. Key levels to watch for XAUUSD are support at $3,245 and resistance at $3,285.
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The gold (XAU) price fell by 0.4% on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve's (Fed) May Meeting Minutes release. The report highlighted policymakers’ growing concerns about persistent inflationary pressures and emerging weaknesses in the labour market.
👉Possible effects for traders
At its May meeting, the Fed held interest rates steady for the third consecutive time. The Fed reaffirmed its data-dependent approach amid growing economic fragility. While acknowledging the continued resilience of certain economic indicators, officials also noted a downgrade in growth projections and an elevated risk of recession.
Escalating trade tensions and the potential impact of proposed tariffs amplified concerns, heightening economic uncertainty. The Fed's tone reflected a more cautious outlook, signalling that downside risks to the economy are becoming harder to ignore. Fed officials, including New York Fed President John Williams, emphasised the importance of responding decisively if inflation deviates from the central bank's 2% target. This signals a readiness to proactively adjust monetary policy to maintain price stability, even as broader economic conditions grow more complex.
XAUUSD continued to fall during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, U.S. Jobless Claims will come out at 12:30 p.m. UTC. The data may offer insight into U.S. labour market conditions and shape interest rate expectations. Key levels to watch for XAUUSD are support at $3,245 and resistance at $3,285.
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#economic_calendar
These events will affect the market on 30 May.
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These events will affect the market on 30 May.
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GBPUSD, 30-minute timeframe chart
👉Level explanation
GBPUSD has been under selling pressure within the last couple of hours.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 1.34760.
Set your stop loss at 1.35170 above the previous high ($4.10 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.34350 ($4.10 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
Some traders may close their positions on Friday, which can add more pressure to the market.
@octa_analytics
👉Level explanation
GBPUSD has been under selling pressure within the last couple of hours.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 1.34760.
Set your stop loss at 1.35170 above the previous high ($4.10 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.34350 ($4.10 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
Some traders may close their positions on Friday, which can add more pressure to the market.
@octa_analytics
📊📊Gold Rebounds on Thursday
The gold price (XAU) rose by 0.91% on Thursday, driven by renewed market uncertainty. The rebound followed a U.S. federal appeals court decision to temporarily uphold President Trump’s expansive tariff policy.
👉Possible effects for traders
This ruling came just one day after the U.S. Court of International Trade had blocked trade tariffs, citing procedural issues in their implementation. The legal back-and-forth surrounding trade policy reignited safe-haven demand for bullion amid potential trade disruptions and rising geopolitical tension.
Comments from central bank officials added to the cautious sentiment. San Francisco Federal Reserve (Fed) President Mary Daly reaffirmed the Fed's March projection of two potential rate cuts in 2025. However, she stressed that maintaining the current policy rate remains prudent for the near term. Daly emphasised the importance of anchoring inflation expectations, signalling the Fed's commitment to returning inflation sustainably to its 2% target before easing further. The combination of legal tensions and cautious central bank guidance supported gold's appeal as a hedge against both economic and policy uncertainty.
XAUUSD fell below $3,310 during Asian and early European trading sessions, positioning the precious metal for a weekly decline exceeding 1%. Investor sentiment turned risk-averse ahead of the upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report today at 12:30 p.m. UTC. The Fed will closely watch the PCE data as it could offer important insights into the future path of U.S. interest rates.
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The gold price (XAU) rose by 0.91% on Thursday, driven by renewed market uncertainty. The rebound followed a U.S. federal appeals court decision to temporarily uphold President Trump’s expansive tariff policy.
👉Possible effects for traders
This ruling came just one day after the U.S. Court of International Trade had blocked trade tariffs, citing procedural issues in their implementation. The legal back-and-forth surrounding trade policy reignited safe-haven demand for bullion amid potential trade disruptions and rising geopolitical tension.
Comments from central bank officials added to the cautious sentiment. San Francisco Federal Reserve (Fed) President Mary Daly reaffirmed the Fed's March projection of two potential rate cuts in 2025. However, she stressed that maintaining the current policy rate remains prudent for the near term. Daly emphasised the importance of anchoring inflation expectations, signalling the Fed's commitment to returning inflation sustainably to its 2% target before easing further. The combination of legal tensions and cautious central bank guidance supported gold's appeal as a hedge against both economic and policy uncertainty.
XAUUSD fell below $3,310 during Asian and early European trading sessions, positioning the precious metal for a weekly decline exceeding 1%. Investor sentiment turned risk-averse ahead of the upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report today at 12:30 p.m. UTC. The Fed will closely watch the PCE data as it could offer important insights into the future path of U.S. interest rates.
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📊📊Shrinking U.S. economy lifts euro
The euro (EUR) increased by 0.69% on Thursday after official data confirmed the U.S. economy shrank in Q1—the first contraction in three years.
👉Possible effects for traders
The economic slowdown poses new challenges for the Federal Reserve (Fed), which must balance supporting growth with persistent inflation pressures. While a downturn typically bolsters the case for easing monetary policy, uncertainty around inflationary dynamics—especially in the context of trade policy—may temper expectations for an imminent rate cut.
Adding to market volatility, the U.S. dollar (USD) initially rallied on Thursday following a federal court ruling that deemed President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs unlawful. However, those gains reversed after an appeals court reinstated the tariffs, reigniting uncertainty over trade policy and inflation.
EURUSD started to decline during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, traders are closely watching the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data at 12:30 p.m. UTC, the Fed's preferred inflation measure. The report could offer clues as to whether reinstated tariffs are feeding through to consumer prices, potentially shaping the central bank's next move.
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The euro (EUR) increased by 0.69% on Thursday after official data confirmed the U.S. economy shrank in Q1—the first contraction in three years.
👉Possible effects for traders
The economic slowdown poses new challenges for the Federal Reserve (Fed), which must balance supporting growth with persistent inflation pressures. While a downturn typically bolsters the case for easing monetary policy, uncertainty around inflationary dynamics—especially in the context of trade policy—may temper expectations for an imminent rate cut.
Adding to market volatility, the U.S. dollar (USD) initially rallied on Thursday following a federal court ruling that deemed President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs unlawful. However, those gains reversed after an appeals court reinstated the tariffs, reigniting uncertainty over trade policy and inflation.
EURUSD started to decline during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, traders are closely watching the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data at 12:30 p.m. UTC, the Fed's preferred inflation measure. The report could offer clues as to whether reinstated tariffs are feeding through to consumer prices, potentially shaping the central bank's next move.
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📊📊BTC retreats from all-time high of $111,980, but remains resilient
Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 1.7% on Thursday.
👉Possible effects for traders
Bitcoin's fundamental outlook remains robust, underpinned by growing institutional engagement and increasing strategic adoption by sovereign entities. Notably, open futures positions have surpassed $15 billion. This signals increasing participation from professional and institutional investors, viewing Bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier and a hedge against macroeconomic risks. Further validating Bitcoin as a recognised financial asset, the U.S. government created a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve—currently valued at approximately $20.4 billion—which marks a significant endorsement of its long-term store-of-value proposition and geopolitical relevance.
Despite these structural tailwinds, near-term market dynamics may introduce heightened volatility. The upcoming expiration of approximately $10 billion in Bitcoin options poses a potential inflection point, as large open interest around key strike prices can amplify price swings. While such derivative-driven movements may cause short-term dislocations, they don't detract from the strengthening macro fundamentals. As institutional infrastructure grows and sovereign interest deepens, Bitcoin continues to solidify its position as a core asset within the evolving global financial ecosystem.
BTCUSD rose slightly during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, traders should focus on two U.S. reports: the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index at 12:30 p.m. UTC and the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment data at 2:00 p.m. UTC. The report may spur volatility and shed light on potential shifts in U.S. monetary policy. Key levels to watch are support at $104,600 and resistance at $106,800.
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Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 1.7% on Thursday.
👉Possible effects for traders
Bitcoin's fundamental outlook remains robust, underpinned by growing institutional engagement and increasing strategic adoption by sovereign entities. Notably, open futures positions have surpassed $15 billion. This signals increasing participation from professional and institutional investors, viewing Bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier and a hedge against macroeconomic risks. Further validating Bitcoin as a recognised financial asset, the U.S. government created a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve—currently valued at approximately $20.4 billion—which marks a significant endorsement of its long-term store-of-value proposition and geopolitical relevance.
Despite these structural tailwinds, near-term market dynamics may introduce heightened volatility. The upcoming expiration of approximately $10 billion in Bitcoin options poses a potential inflection point, as large open interest around key strike prices can amplify price swings. While such derivative-driven movements may cause short-term dislocations, they don't detract from the strengthening macro fundamentals. As institutional infrastructure grows and sovereign interest deepens, Bitcoin continues to solidify its position as a core asset within the evolving global financial ecosystem.
BTCUSD rose slightly during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, traders should focus on two U.S. reports: the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index at 12:30 p.m. UTC and the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment data at 2:00 p.m. UTC. The report may spur volatility and shed light on potential shifts in U.S. monetary policy. Key levels to watch are support at $104,600 and resistance at $106,800.
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🇮🇩ID 🇮🇳IN 🇵🇰PK 🇹🇭TH
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XAUUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart
👉General outlook
XAUUSD has been under buying pressure within the last couple of hours.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 3,288.00.
Set your stop loss at 3,310.00 above the previous high ($22.00 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 3,260.00 ($28.00 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.27.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
Some traders may close their positions on Friday, which can add more pressure to the market.
@octa_analytics
👉General outlook
XAUUSD has been under buying pressure within the last couple of hours.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 3,288.00.
Set your stop loss at 3,310.00 above the previous high ($22.00 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 3,260.00 ($28.00 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.27.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
Some traders may close their positions on Friday, which can add more pressure to the market.
@octa_analytics
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Try Octa now and feel the difference via this link
Follow @octa_analytics for more useful information for trading
‼️ Join Octa Analytics VIP
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XAUUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart
👉General outlook
XAUUSD has been under buying pressure within the last couple of hours.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 3,323.50.
Set your stop loss at 3,338.50 above the previous high ($18.00 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 3,305.50 ($18.00 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
@octa_analytics
👉General outlook
XAUUSD has been under buying pressure within the last couple of hours.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 3,323.50.
Set your stop loss at 3,338.50 above the previous high ($18.00 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 3,305.50 ($18.00 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
@octa_analytics
#weekly_outlook
🔎 Keeping up-to-date with the market helps you make better trading decisions
Here’s a Weekly Market Outlook for 2 – 6 June from Vito Henjoto.
Stay informed and trade wisely.
🔎 Keeping up-to-date with the market helps you make better trading decisions
Here’s a Weekly Market Outlook for 2 – 6 June from Vito Henjoto.
Stay informed and trade wisely.
YouTube
[ENGLISH] Market Analysis: 2 – 6 June | Octa Weekly
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#webinars_schedule #education
📱 You can now watch our educational webinars in the Octa Trading App on your Android smartphone. Install the latest version, tap Webinars in the menu, and enjoy fast and easy access to all upcoming and past videos.
🔎 Apply filters to find videos for your learning needs. Set notifications for upcoming webinars to catch the moment when a live stream starts.
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🇮🇩 3/06, 7 p.m. WIB – [INDONESIAN] – Live trading session with Vito Henjoto
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🇬🇧 6/06, 12 p.m. UTC – ENGLISH – Webinar 'News trading. Theory and practice' with Vito Henjoto
📱 You can now watch our educational webinars in the Octa Trading App on your Android smartphone. Install the latest version, tap Webinars in the menu, and enjoy fast and easy access to all upcoming and past videos.
🔎 Apply filters to find videos for your learning needs. Set notifications for upcoming webinars to catch the moment when a live stream starts.
👋 Join and learn more about trading:
🇮🇩 3/06, 7 p.m. WIB – [INDONESIAN] – Live trading session with Vito Henjoto
🇮🇩 4/06, 7 p.m. WIB – [INDONESIAN] – Live trading session with Setyo Wibowo
🇬🇧 5/06, 6 p.m. WAT – ENGLISH – Live trading session with Ambrose Ebuka
🇲🇾 5/06, 9 p.m. MYT – MALAY – Live trading session with Cikgu Danie
🇬🇧 6/06, 12 p.m. UTC – ENGLISH – Webinar 'News trading. Theory and practice' with Vito Henjoto
The Japanese yen (JPY) advanced towards approximately 143.500 on Monday, marking its third consecutive session of gains.
👉 Possible effects for traders
The rally in the Japanese yen was driven largely by renewed concerns over protectionist policies after former U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to double tariffs on steel and aluminium imports towards 50%, effective 4 June. These developments reignited fears of a broader trade conflict, prompting investors to reduce positions in riskier assets and seek stability in traditional safe havens like the yen.
The tariff announcement had immediate sectoral implications, putting pressure on Japanese steelmakers. JFE Holdings and Kobe Steel saw increased investor caution due to their potential exposure to the U.S. market and rising input costs. However, Nippon Steel remained relatively resilient, buoyed by Trump's favourable comments on its proposed merger with U.S. Steel—an endorsement that provided some insulation from the broader industry headwinds. Meanwhile, escalating U.S.–China tensions added to global uncertainty, with Beijing firmly rejecting Trump's claim that it had violated a recent trade agreement signed in Geneva.
USDJPY fell during Asian and early European trading hours. Today, market participants will closely monitor the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index report at 2:00 p.m. UTC. A higher-than-expected reading may push USDJPY higher, while softer data will put additional bearish pressure on the pair.
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Today, the euro (EUR) has risen by 0.29% as escalating trade tensions have weighed on investor confidence.
👉 Possible effects for traders
The euro's rise followed former U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement that tariffs on steel and aluminium imports would be doubled towards 50% starting June 4. The announcement renewed fears of a protracted trade conflict. Meanwhile, Beijing has strongly rejected Trump's accusations that China violated a trade agreement struck last month in Geneva. The conflict cast doubt on the immediate prospects for diplomatic engagement between the two largest economies.
Despite the renewed tension, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett suggested that a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could still occur this week, leaving the door open for dialogue. Meanwhile, markets are focusing on several key U.S. economic indicators, with particular focus on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. The report could provide critical insights into the economic implications of changing trade dynamics. The data will also help determine whether the recent pressure on the U.S. dollar is transitory or marks the beginning of a broader reassessment of U.S. economic risks.
Today, traders should closely monitor developments surrounding U.S. trade tariffs and the peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. The U.S. will release several economic reports that may increase volatility. ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) will come out at 2:00 p.m. UTC and may affect the euro. Key levels to watch are resistance at 1.13500 and support at 1.11400.
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The gold price (XAU) fell by 0.86% on Friday as resilient U.S. economic data weakened the appeal of safe-haven assets, even as geopolitical and trade tensions escalated.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Markets reacted strongly after former U.S. President Donald Trump announced a planned increase in tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from 25% towards 50% starting 4 June. The move reignites concerns over a global trade war, particularly as legal challenges to Trump's previous tariff actions continue to unfold. An appeals court recently allowed the lawsuit to proceed, overruling an earlier decision by the Court of International Trade to pause the tariffs. This has added legal uncertainty to the economic situation.
Adding to the market volatility, Trump accused China of breaching a tariff ceasefire brokered in early May. Beijing denied the accusation, alleging reciprocal U.S. violations. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks surged after a Ukrainian drone strike reportedly destroyed over 40 Russian military aircraft, prompting a retaliatory missile and drone barrage. The escalation occurred just ahead of scheduled peace negotiations in Istanbul, heightening further uncertainty in markets grappling with rising protectionism and legal ambiguity surrounding U.S. trade policy.
XAUUSD rose above $3,320 during Asian and early European trading sessions as Trump's new tariff threat spurred demand for safe-haven assets. Today, investors should await comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at 5:00 p.m. UTC for more clues on the U.S. interest rate path.
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📈 What moved the markets last week?
Our latest snapshot highlights the standout performances and key drivers behind the action:
🚀 Top Performers
🔹 USDJPY (U.S. dollar vs Japanese yen) — The pair rallied as the yen weakened after the BoJ held rates steady and lowered growth forecasts, while the dollar gained on renewed trade deal optimism.
🔹USDMXN (U.S. dollar vs Mexican peso) — The peso climbed as risk sentiment improved following Trump’s decision to delay EU tariffs, though volatility spiked midweek.
🔹USDCHF (U.S. dollar vs Swiss franc) — The franc dipped as safe-haven demand eased, but choppy price action reflected lingering market uncertainty.
🔴 Biggest Laggards
🔹 XAUUSD (Gold) — Gold underperformed as fading safe-haven demand and a stronger dollar pressured prices, despite late-week tariff threats from Trump.
🔹 EURUSD (Euro) — The euro edged lower amid a mixed dollar performance and shifting risk appetite.
🔹 AUDUSD (Australian dollar)— The Aussie struggled despite broader optimism, weighed down by commodity price fluctuations.
💡Key Takeaways
- USDJPY topped the leaderboard, while gold (XAU) trailed as trade hopes and BoJ policy shifts dominated.
- The dollar’s rally was uneven: It gained against safe havens (JPY, CHF) but faced pressure from EM currencies (MXN) and tariff-related volatility.
- Markets whipsawed on trade headlines: A court ruling against Trump’s tariffs briefly boosted sentiment, but an appeals court reversal reignited confusion—highlighting the fragile balance between risk-on and risk-off flows.
Follow @octa_analytics for more trading content
Our latest snapshot highlights the standout performances and key drivers behind the action:
🚀 Top Performers
🔹 USDJPY (U.S. dollar vs Japanese yen) — The pair rallied as the yen weakened after the BoJ held rates steady and lowered growth forecasts, while the dollar gained on renewed trade deal optimism.
🔹USDMXN (U.S. dollar vs Mexican peso) — The peso climbed as risk sentiment improved following Trump’s decision to delay EU tariffs, though volatility spiked midweek.
🔹USDCHF (U.S. dollar vs Swiss franc) — The franc dipped as safe-haven demand eased, but choppy price action reflected lingering market uncertainty.
🔴 Biggest Laggards
🔹 XAUUSD (Gold) — Gold underperformed as fading safe-haven demand and a stronger dollar pressured prices, despite late-week tariff threats from Trump.
🔹 EURUSD (Euro) — The euro edged lower amid a mixed dollar performance and shifting risk appetite.
🔹 AUDUSD (Australian dollar)— The Aussie struggled despite broader optimism, weighed down by commodity price fluctuations.
💡Key Takeaways
- USDJPY topped the leaderboard, while gold (XAU) trailed as trade hopes and BoJ policy shifts dominated.
- The dollar’s rally was uneven: It gained against safe havens (JPY, CHF) but faced pressure from EM currencies (MXN) and tariff-related volatility.
- Markets whipsawed on trade headlines: A court ruling against Trump’s tariffs briefly boosted sentiment, but an appeals court reversal reignited confusion—highlighting the fragile balance between risk-on and risk-off flows.
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