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📊Euro extends losses

The euro (EUR) lost 0.52% on Wednesday, extending losses from the previous session.

👉Possible effects for traders

U.S. consumer confidence data came out stronger than expected. Consumer confidence rebounded in May, signalling improved consumer sentiment about the U.S. economic outlook. The data reinforced investor appetite for U.S. dollar-denominated assets, putting further downward pressure on the euro.

Market optimism following President Trump's decision to delay the implementation of 50% tariffs on EU imports added to the euro's weakness. This eased immediate concerns of a trade escalation, improving the investment outlook for U.S. assets. In anticipation of upcoming trade negotiations, European leaders have reportedly consulted with major firms to reassess their U.S. investment strategies. Meanwhile, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari reiterated his stance on holding interest rates steady until the inflationary impact of tariffs becomes clearer.

EURUSD remained relatively unchanged during Asian and early European trading sessions. Market participants await the publication of the U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes at 6:00 p.m. UTC today, which may shed light on the U.S. monetary policy in 2025 and influence the Forex market.

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📊Gold drops after upbeat U.S. consumer confidence data

The gold (XAU) price fell sharply by 1.24% on Tuesday after the better-than-expected U.S. consumer confidence data.

👉Possible effects for traders

U.S. consumer confidence rebounded in May, rising sharply from near five-year lows, reflecting renewed optimism about the U.S. economy and labour market conditions. This surge suggests that U.S. consumers feel more secure in their financial outlook, potentially supporting continued consumer spending—a key driver of gross domestic product growth.

At the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to postpone the imposition of tariffs on EU imports supported market sentiment. This move was seen as a constructive step towards de-escalating trade tensions and allowing additional negotiation time. Also, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari emphasised the need for a cautious monetary policy stance. He supported holding interest rates steady until the inflationary impact of existing tariffs becomes clearer.

During the Asian trading session, XAUUSD continued to decline. Today, gold will likely pause its decline after yesterday's significant drop. Still, FOMC Meeting Minutes, due at 6:00 p.m. UTC, may add volatility to the market. Analysts anticipate a range-bound movement for the day, with XAUUSD potentially testing the support level at $3,285 before establishing its next direction. Key levels to watch for XAUUSD are support at $3,285 and resistance at $3,320.


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XAUUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart

👉Level explanation

XAUUSD has been trading in a bullish trend for the last couple of hours. Now, the price displays a bearish Hammer pattern.

👉Possible scenario

The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 3,319.00.

Set your stop loss at 3,338.00 above the previous high ($19.00 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 3,300.00 ($19.00 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

@octa_analytics
EURUSD, 1-hour timeframe chart

👉General outlook


EURUSD has been trading in a sideways market within the last day.

👉Possible scenario

The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 1.13170.

Set your stop loss at 1.13746 above the previous high ($5.76 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.12594 ($5.76 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

@octa_analytics
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#economic_calendar

These events will affect the market on 29 May.

🔥 Don't forget to get a 100% deposit bonus!
EURUSD, 30-minute timeframe chart

👉General outlook

EURUSD has been under buying pressure within the last couple of hours.

👉Possible scenario

The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 1.12400.

Set your stop loss at 1.12612 above the previous high ($2.12 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.12188 ($2.12 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

@octa_analytics
📊Weakening safe-haven demand weighs on JPY

USDJPY rose for a third consecutive session on Wednesday, gaining 0.3%.

👉Possible effects for traders

The weakening safe-haven demand amid easing concerns over tariff-related risks contributed to a broader risk-on sentiment across global markets. This shift pressured the Japanese yen (JPY), which typically strengthens during periods of geopolitical or economic unease.

Meanwhile, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda voiced concern over the recent rise in ultra-long-term Japanese government bond yields. He highlighted the importance of monitoring potential spillover into shorter-dated debt. His remarks underscore the BoJ's increasing vigilance over financial stability risks as global interest rate dynamics evolve. While Ueda reiterated the central bank’s commitment to reach the inflation target, his remarks signal a readiness to adjust policy if yield volatility begins to threaten market or economic stability.

The Japanese yen weakened towards 146.000—a two-week low—during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today's U.S. Jobless Claims data, due at 12:30 p.m. UTC, may trigger some volatility. For USDJPY, key levels to watch are resistance at 146.300 and support at 145.000.

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📊📊Euro slips after U.S. court blocks Trump's trade tariffs

The euro (EUR) lost 0.32% on Thursday, for a third consecutive session following a significant legal setback for the Trump administration.

👉Possible effects for traders

The decline followed a significant legal setback for U.S. President Donald Trump's administration. A federal court concluded that Trump's imposition of reciprocal tariffs exceeded his executive authority, ruling the tariffs 'unlawful to all', not just the five plaintiffs in the case. The U.S. Court of International Trade ordered the immediate removal and permanent suspension of these tariffs, a decision that could have a wide range of implications for trade policy and market sentiment. The Trump administration will likely appeal the decision, but there's now a new layer of uncertainty in the market, which investors must factor into their risk assessments.

At the same time, market participants are closely watching developments in the U.S. Senate. President Trump's comprehensive tax and spending package faces intense scrutiny and is expected to undergo major revisions. On the monetary policy front, the latest FOMC Meeting Minutes revealed a more cautious tone among Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. The Committee emphasised a wait-and-see approach as it evaluated the economic impact of recent fiscal measures and ongoing trade disputes. Policymakers highlighted growing concerns about persistent inflation and a potential rise in unemployment—suggesting the Fed must carefully balance its dual mandate amid growing volatility.

EURUSD continued to decline during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the market focuses on two U.S. macroeconomic reports at 12:30 p.m. UTC: Gross Domestic Product and Jobless Claims data. Stronger-than-expected figures could delay rate cuts and push EURUSD below 1.11800. Conversely, worse-than-expected results weigh on the U.S. dollar and lift EURUSD above 1.13000.

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📊📊Gold slips after FOMC Meeting Minutes

The gold (XAU) price fell by 0.4% on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve's (Fed) May Meeting Minutes release. The report highlighted policymakers’ growing concerns about persistent inflationary pressures and emerging weaknesses in the labour market.

👉Possible effects for traders

At its May meeting, the Fed held interest rates steady for the third consecutive time. The Fed reaffirmed its data-dependent approach amid growing economic fragility. While acknowledging the continued resilience of certain economic indicators, officials also noted a downgrade in growth projections and an elevated risk of recession.

Escalating trade tensions and the potential impact of proposed tariffs amplified concerns, heightening economic uncertainty. The Fed's tone reflected a more cautious outlook, signalling that downside risks to the economy are becoming harder to ignore. Fed officials, including New York Fed President John Williams, emphasised the importance of responding decisively if inflation deviates from the central bank's 2% target. This signals a readiness to proactively adjust monetary policy to maintain price stability, even as broader economic conditions grow more complex.

XAUUSD continued to fall during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, U.S. Jobless Claims will come out at 12:30 p.m. UTC. The data may offer insight into U.S. labour market conditions and shape interest rate expectations. Key levels to watch for XAUUSD are support at $3,245 and resistance at $3,285.

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1️⃣ Make sure you have $50 or more in your account.
2️⃣ Take a screenshot of your balance and send it along with your Octa real account ID to our @octa_vip_bot chatbot.
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Ready to take your trading to the next level? Let us steer you toward success. The sooner you join, the more you’ll benefit from our elite trading community!

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#economic_calendar

These events will affect the market on 30 May.

🔥 Don't forget to get a 100% deposit bonus!
GBPUSD, 30-minute timeframe chart

👉Level explanation

GBPUSD has been under selling pressure within the last couple of hours.

👉Possible scenario

The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 1.34760.

Set your stop loss at 1.35170 above the previous high ($4.10 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.34350 ($4.10 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

Some traders may close their positions on Friday, which can add more pressure to the market.

@octa_analytics
📊📊Gold Rebounds on Thursday

The gold price (XAU) rose by 0.91% on Thursday, driven by renewed market uncertainty. The rebound followed a U.S. federal appeals court decision to temporarily uphold President Trump’s expansive tariff policy.

👉Possible effects for traders

This ruling came just one day after the U.S. Court of International Trade had blocked trade tariffs, citing procedural issues in their implementation. The legal back-and-forth surrounding trade policy reignited safe-haven demand for bullion amid potential trade disruptions and rising geopolitical tension.

Comments from central bank officials added to the cautious sentiment. San Francisco Federal Reserve (Fed) President Mary Daly reaffirmed the Fed's March projection of two potential rate cuts in 2025. However, she stressed that maintaining the current policy rate remains prudent for the near term. Daly emphasised the importance of anchoring inflation expectations, signalling the Fed's commitment to returning inflation sustainably to its 2% target before easing further. The combination of legal tensions and cautious central bank guidance supported gold's appeal as a hedge against both economic and policy uncertainty.

XAUUSD fell below $3,310 during Asian and early European trading sessions, positioning the precious metal for a weekly decline exceeding 1%. Investor sentiment turned risk-averse ahead of the upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report today at 12:30 p.m. UTC. The Fed will closely watch the PCE data as it could offer important insights into the future path of U.S. interest rates.

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📊📊Shrinking U.S. economy lifts euro

The euro (EUR) increased by 0.69% on Thursday after official data confirmed the U.S. economy shrank in Q1—the first contraction in three years.

👉Possible effects for traders

The economic slowdown poses new challenges for the Federal Reserve (Fed), which must balance supporting growth with persistent inflation pressures. While a downturn typically bolsters the case for easing monetary policy, uncertainty around inflationary dynamics—especially in the context of trade policy—may temper expectations for an imminent rate cut.

Adding to market volatility, the U.S. dollar (USD) initially rallied on Thursday following a federal court ruling that deemed President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs unlawful. However, those gains reversed after an appeals court reinstated the tariffs, reigniting uncertainty over trade policy and inflation.

EURUSD started to decline during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, traders are closely watching the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data at 12:30 p.m. UTC, the Fed's preferred inflation measure. The report could offer clues as to whether reinstated tariffs are feeding through to consumer prices, potentially shaping the central bank's next move.

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📊📊BTC retreats from all-time high of $111,980, but remains resilient

Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 1.7% on Thursday.

👉Possible effects for traders

Bitcoin's fundamental outlook remains robust, underpinned by growing institutional engagement and increasing strategic adoption by sovereign entities. Notably, open futures positions have surpassed $15 billion. This signals increasing participation from professional and institutional investors, viewing Bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier and a hedge against macroeconomic risks. Further validating Bitcoin as a recognised financial asset, the U.S. government created a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve—currently valued at approximately $20.4 billion—which marks a significant endorsement of its long-term store-of-value proposition and geopolitical relevance.

Despite these structural tailwinds, near-term market dynamics may introduce heightened volatility. The upcoming expiration of approximately $10 billion in Bitcoin options poses a potential inflection point, as large open interest around key strike prices can amplify price swings. While such derivative-driven movements may cause short-term dislocations, they don't detract from the strengthening macro fundamentals. As institutional infrastructure grows and sovereign interest deepens, Bitcoin continues to solidify its position as a core asset within the evolving global financial ecosystem.

BTCUSD rose slightly during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, traders should focus on two U.S. reports: the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index at 12:30 p.m. UTC and the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment data at 2:00 p.m. UTC. The report may spur volatility and shed light on potential shifts in U.S. monetary policy. Key levels to watch are support at $104,600 and resistance at $106,800.

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XAUUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart

👉
General outlook

XAUUSD has been under buying pressure within the last couple of hours.

👉Possible scenario

The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 3,288.00.

Set your stop loss at 3,310.00 above the previous high ($22.00 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 3,260.00 ($28.00 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.27.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

Some traders may close their positions on Friday, which can add more pressure to the market.

@octa_analytics
‼️ Join Octa Analytics VIP

Unlock premium signals, exclusive offers, and important events to boost your trading success.

To become a member of Octa Analytics VIP, follow these easy steps:

1️⃣ Make sure you have $50 or more in your account.
2️⃣ Take a screenshot of your balance and send it along with your Octa real account ID to our @octa_vip_bot chatbot.
3️⃣ Await verification—usually, it’s completed within one business day.

Ready to take your trading to the next level? Let us steer you toward success. The sooner you join, the more you’ll benefit from our elite trading community!

💯 Limited-time offer 💯 Don’t miss the opportunity to use the BONUSVIP100 promo code for a 100% deposit bonus!
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Follow @octa_analytics for more useful information for trading
‼️ Join Octa Analytics VIP

Unlock premium signals, exclusive offers, and important events to boost your trading success.

To become a member of Octa Analytics VIP, follow these easy steps:

1️⃣ Make sure you have $50 or more in your account.
2️⃣ Take a screenshot of your balance and send it along with your Octa real account ID to our @octa_vip_bot chatbot.
3️⃣ Await verification—usually, it’s completed within one business day.

Ready to take your trading to the next level? Let us steer you toward success. The sooner you join, the more you’ll benefit from our elite trading community!

💯 Limited-time offer 💯 Don’t miss the opportunity to use the BONUSVIP100 promo code for a 100% deposit bonus!