XAUUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart

👉General outlook

XAUUSD has been trading in a sideways market within the last day.

👉Possible scenario

The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 3,225.00.

Set your stop loss at 3,200.00 above the previous high ($25.00 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 3,250.00 ($25.00 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

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#weekly_outlook

🔎 Keeping up-to-date with the market helps you make better trading decisions

Here’s a Weekly Market Outlook for 19 – 23 May from Vito Henjoto.

Stay informed and trade wisely.

📊 Gold rebounds on concerns over U.S. economic outlook and budget deficit

The gold (XAU) price fell by 1.13% on Friday but later recovered some losses after ratings agency Moody's downgraded the U.S. government's credit rating. The agency stripped it of its triple-A rating, citing large budget deficits and rising interest costs.

👉Possible effects for traders

Last week, the gold price fell by over 3%, marking their steepest weekly decline since November. The decline was largely driven by a surge in investor risk appetite following progress in U.S.–China negotiation. A 90-day pause in tariffs between the countries eased fears of an imminent global recession, dampening demand for safe-haven assets like bullion.

Meanwhile, weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data and slowing inflation have raised market expectations that the Federal Reserve may implement further interest rate cuts later this year. Non-yielding assets such as gold usually perform well under an easing monetary policy.

XAUUSD rose during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today's macroeconomic calendar is rather uneventful, but traders should monitor any developments around trade tariffs. Additionally, Fed officials will give speeches, adding volatility to all USD pairs. Key levels to watch for XAUUSD are support at $3,160 and resistance at $3,250.

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📊 EURUSD rises following a sharp decline

The euro (EUR) lost 1.31% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Friday. However, the decline was limited by expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) wouldn't cut the base rate amid persistent core inflation in the eurozone despite signs of slowing growth.

👉Possible effects for traders

ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the euro's recent rise against the U.S. dollar—despite ongoing global uncertainty—was due to a mounting loss of confidence in U.S. policymaking. 'It's impressive to note that in a period of uncertainty when we should normally have seen the dollar appreciate significantly, the opposite happened. It's counterintuitive but justified by the uncertainty and loss of confidence in U.S. policies among certain segments of the financial markets'.

EURUSD rose during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today's formal macroeconomic calendar is relatively uneventful, so volatility is likely to be low. However, investors should closely monitor potential shifts in U.S. trade policy and the Russia–Ukraine peace talks. These developments could significantly impact the market. In addition, the eurozone's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, due at 12:00 p.m. UTC, may trigger some volatility. Key levels to watch are support at 1.11000 and resistance at 1.12500.


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📊 JPY strengthens on USD weakness

USDJPY remained under downward pressure on Friday, declining for the fifth consecutive trading session.

👉Possible effects for traders

Recent data revealed that Japan’s economy shrank in Q1 2025, with gross domestic product (GDP) contracting more than analysts had expected. This marked the country's first economic contraction in a year.

Market focus is now shifting to the upcoming Japanese trade figures, especially as concerns grow over the potential impact of new U.S. tariff measures. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba reaffirmed Japan's stance, stating that Tokyo wouldn't agree to any preliminary trade deal that omits key provisions on automobiles. He also called on Washington to eliminate the 25% tariff on Japanese cars.

USDJPY fell slightly during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today's macroeconomic calendar is relatively uneventful, so the probability of significant price movements is low. USDJPY traders should watch the critically important 144.800 level, as a break below could trigger a major sell-off.


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AUDUSD, 30-minute timeframe chart

👉General outlook

AUDUSD has been trading in a bullish trend within the last day.

👉Possible scenario

The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 0.64391.

Set your stop loss at 0.64767 above the previous high ($3.76 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 0.64015 ($3.76 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

@octa_analytics

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#economic_calendar

These events will affect the market on 20 May.

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USDJPY, 30-minute timeframe chart

👉Level explanation

USDJPY has been under selling pressure within the last couple of hours.

👉Possible scenario

The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 144.410.

Set your stop loss at 144.910 above the previous high ($3.46 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 143.910 ($3.46 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

@octa_analytics

📊 Australian dollar weakens after RBA decision

The Australian dollar (AUD) rose by 0.84% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Monday after increased safe-haven demand for the Aussie after U.S. President Donald Trump called for an interest rate cut supported the rise.

👉Possible effects for traders

"The market is still very wary of the lack of austerity coming from the fiscal side in the U.S." said Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at National Australia Bank. "We think that is potentially a driver for dollar weakness over the coming quarters as the market is likely to demand a higher premium to lend money to the U.S.," he added.

With the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest move largely priced in, market focus has shifted to the central bank’s updated economic forecasts and Governor Bullock’s commentary for clearer signals on the future trajectory of interest rates, especially as recent Australian data has cast doubt on expectations for further cuts this year. Adding to the uncertainty, political instability weighed on the Australian dollar after National Party leader David Littleproud declared the end of the coalition with the Liberals, signaling a more fragmented opposition as Labor secured a stronger mandate following the coalition's collapse.

AUDUSD fell during Asian and early European trading sessions following the RBA's decision. Traders should now monitor upcoming speeches from RBA officials. Key technical levels to watch are resistance at 0.65100 and support at 0.63600.

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📊 Waning confidence in U.S. exceptionalism has sent the dollar tumbling.

The euro (EUR) won 0.69% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Monday.

👉Possible effects for traders

The U.S. dollar came under renewed selling pressure following Moody’s decision to downgrade the country’s sovereign credit rating by one notch—marking the third major agency to take such action after Fitch’s downgrade in 2023 and S&P’s in 2011. The move has reignited concerns over the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy and its long-term creditworthiness. George Vessey, lead currency and macroeconomic strategist at Convera, noted that "there’s a lot of scope for further downgrades, purely from a valuation perspective," suggesting that a broad "sell America" sentiment may resurface among global investors.

Adding to the market's caution, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirmed on Sunday that President Donald Trump stands ready to reimpose the higher tariff rates threatened last month if key trading partners fail to engage in negotiations "in good faith." This assertive stance on trade policy is likely to amplify geopolitical risk and investor unease, potentially fueling further outflows from dollar-denominated assets. As a result, the combination of sovereign credit concerns and renewed trade uncertainty is reshaping short-term sentiment toward the U.S. economy and its currency.

EURUSD continues to rise during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, traders should focus on the Consumer Confidence report, which will be released on 2:00 p.m. UTC. In addition, traders should monitor developments concerning global trade tariffs and Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations.Key levels to watch are support at 1.11000 and resistance at 1.13000.

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📊 Gold Gains on weakening U.S. Dollar

The gold (XAU) price rose by 0.83% on Monday, buoyed by a weaker U.S. dollar and escalating trade tensions following Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s warning about potential tariff hikes.

👉Possible effects for traders

Bessent indicated that if countries fail to negotiate "in good faith," tariff rates would revert to the harsher levels announced on April 2. This rhetoric has reintroduced uncertainty into markets that had briefly embraced optimism, increasing demand for safe-haven assets such as gold.

Adding to the cautious sentiment, Moody’s recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating has intensified investor concerns about the country's fiscal trajectory. The downgrade, viewed as a reflection of mounting structural weaknesses in the U.S. economy, has reinforced a broader risk-off mood across global markets. As Swissquote Bank’s senior analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya notes, the fragile optimism seen in previous sessions may prove short-lived, prompting investors to seek refuge in traditional hedges like precious metals.

XAUUSD fell slightly during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, investors should closely monitor potential shifts in U.S. trade policy and the Russia–Ukraine peace talks. These developments could significantly impact the market. In addition, the eurozone's Consumer Confidence report, due at 2:00 p.m. UTC, may trigger some volatility. Key levels to watch for XAUUSD are support level at $3,160 and resistance level at $3,250.

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XAUUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart

👉General outlook

XAUUSD has been under buying pressure within the last couple of hours.

👉Possible scenario

The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 3,240.00.

Set your stop loss at 3,222.00 below the previous low ($18.00 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 3,258.00 ($18.00 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

@octa_analytics

‼️ Join Octa Analytics VIP

Unlock premium signals, exclusive offers, and important events to boost your trading success.

To become a member of Octa Analytics VIP, follow these easy steps:

1️⃣ Make sure you have $50 or more in your account.
2️⃣ Take a screenshot of your balance and send it along with your Octa real account ID to our @octa_vip_bot chatbot.
3️⃣ Await verification—usually, it’s completed within one business day.

Ready to take your trading to the next level? Let us steer you toward success. The sooner you join, the more you’ll benefit from our elite trading community!

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#economic_calendar

These events may affect the market on 21 May.

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📊 The British pound holds near three-week high

The British pound (GBP) rose by 0.22% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Tuesday. This currency strengthened after the U.K. and EU agreed on a significant reset of trade and defence relations, which markets have interpreted as a potential catalyst for improved economic cooperation and long-term growth prospects.

👉Possible effects for traders

'Yesterday's big news in terms of the new U.K.–EU deal was a mild positive for sterling, although we don't think it moves the needle substantially on growth given the relatively small size of the animal livestock and border crossing arrangements that have been made', said Chris Turner, Head of FX Strategy at ING. 'In the G10 space, interest rates are quite supportive for the U.K. because Bank of England policy is more aligned with Federal Reserve policy than it is with European Central Bank policy, so that's helping sterling'.

Adding to the pound's support, Bank of England (BoE) Chief Economist Huw Pill struck a hawkish tone, suggesting that the central bank's recent pace of rate cuts may have been overly aggressive. Pill emphasised persistent wage-driven inflationary pressures and clarified that his vote to hold rates in May should be viewed as a temporary pause rather than a policy shift.

GBPUSD rose during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Traders should closely watch the upcoming Inflation Rate data today at 6:00 a.m. UTC, which could influence the BoE's next interest rate decision in June. Key technical levels to monitor include resistance at 1.34500 and support at 1.33000.

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📊 Euro rises as traders await Trump's next moves and trade talks

The euro (EUR) gained 0.39% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Tuesday. EURUSD has been rising for two consecutive days as U.S. President Donald Trump failed to convince Republican supporters to back his sweeping tax bill.

👉Possible effects for traders

'Tariff rates are now lower, but not low, and the same can be said about recession risks in the U.S.', Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a research note. 'But as recession risks have compressed, risks from higher rates are growing', they added. 'The U.S. still faces the worst growth-inflation mix of the major economies, and as the fiscal bill makes its way through Congress, eroding U.S. exceptionalism is proving—literally—costly at a time of large funding needs. This leaves wider paths to a weaker dollar and a steeper U.S. Treasury curve'.

Unease continues to exert pressure on the U.S. dollar, even as Treasury yields rise, reflecting a persistent 'sell America' tone among investors, albeit with less urgency than earlier in the month. While Moody's recent downgrade of U.S. sovereign credit had a muted market reaction, it still contributes to a broader narrative of waning confidence in U.S. assets as safe-haven. Investors are reassessing their exposure to dollar-denominated holdings amid mounting fiscal uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.

EURUSD continued to rise during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, traders should closely watch the ongoing G7 finance ministers' meeting in Canada. If U.S. officials signal a preference for a weaker U.S. dollar, it would have broad implications for global capital flows and trade competitiveness. Key levels to watch are support at 1.13000 and resistance at 1.14000.

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📊 Gold rockets on heightened geopolitical uncertainty

The gold (XAU) price rose by 1.86% on Tuesday, supported by rising geopolitical risks and a weakening U.S. dollar (USD).

👉Possible effects for traders

Market anxiety intensified following reports that Israel may be preparing to strike Iranian nuclear sites, a move that could significantly escalate tensions in the Middle East. Adding to global unease, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine would begin ceasefire negotiations but appeared to distance himself from mediating the conflict directly. New sanctions imposed by the EU and U.K. against Russia also added to the already tense geopolitical environment, driving increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar remained under pressure, weighed down by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) cautious outlook and Moody's recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating. Investor sentiment has been rattled by uncertainty surrounding future tariff policies and an upcoming key vote on President Trump's sweeping tax reforms. The weakness in the U.S. dollar has made gold more attractive to foreign buyers, as the metal becomes cheaper in other currencies. This combination of geopolitical uncertainty and macroeconomic headwinds reinforces gold's appeal as a protective asset in turbulent times.

XAUUSD continued rising during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, investors should closely monitor the ongoing G7 finance ministers' meeting in Canada, wary that U.S. officials may signal a preference for a weaker U.S. dollar. Key levels to watch for XAUUSD are the support level at $3,260 and the resistance level at $3,340.

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