📊 Euro hits four-week low

On Thursday, the euro (EUR) fell by 0.65% due to the growth of the U.S. dollar (USD). A trade deal between the U.S. and the U.K. and the Federal Reserve (Fed) statements that it doesn't plan to cut rates anytime soon supported USD.

👉Possible effects for traders

'The market reaction of buying USD may reflect greater optimism that such tariff deals are doable', said Steve Englander, global head of G10 currency research at Standard Chartered, in a note to clients. 'Trump's dangling of the prospect of a trade détente with China may be adding to optimism that the global disruption from trade wars may not be as severe as markets have feared', he said. 'For the time being, G10 markets would be relieved if U.S. and China bilateral tariffs were rolled back, even if they remain well above 19 January levels'.

EURUSD remained essentially flat during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Although the official macroeconomic calendar is uneventful, traders should monitor any tariff-related news and negotiations, particularly with Japan. Key levels to watch are resistance at 1.13820 and support at 1.11890.


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📊 Bitcoin hits $100,000 for the first time in 3 months

Bitcoin (BTC) has increased by more than 6% against a backdrop of risk mitigation driven by concerns about the long-term economic impact of global tariffs.

👉Possible effects for traders

'If changing tariff policies continue to drive a move away from U.S. assets, Bitcoin could find its next leg higher', Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, wrote in a note. 'We expect a strategic asset reallocation away from U.S. assets to trigger the next sharp upswing in bitcoin in the coming months', Kendrick said, noting he sees bitcoin hitting a new record high of around $120,000 in Q2 of 2025.

BTCUSD traded sideways during the Asian and early European trading sessions. No major news is expected today that could significantly influence price dynamics. Analysts project the price to continue moving within the established trend.

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XAUUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart

👉General outlook

XAUUSD has been trading in a sideways market within the last day.

👉Possible scenario

The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 3,340.91.

Set your stop loss at 3,312.95 above the previous high ($27.96 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 3,368.87 ($27.96 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

Some traders may close their positions on Friday, which can add more pressure to the market.

@octa_analytics

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EURUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart

👉General outlook

EURUSD has been under selling pressure within the last couple of hours.

👉Possible scenario

The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 1.12260.

Set your stop loss at 1.12590 above the previous high ($3.30 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.11930 ($3.30 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

@octa_analytics

#weekly_outlook

🔎 Keeping up-to-date with the market helps you make better trading decisions

Here’s a Weekly Market Outlook for 12 – 16 May from Vito Henjoto.

Stay informed and trade wisely.

📊 USDJPY tries to renew highs amid U.S.–China trade talks

USDJPY hit a four-week high of 146.189 but failed to hold its gains, declining by 0.25% on Monday.

👉Possible effects for traders

Market sentiment improved after officials from the U.S. and China highlighted tangible progress in negotiations. U.S. representatives emphasised steps toward narrowing the trade deficit, while Chinese authorities referred to the discussions as reached an 'important consensus'. Despite this progress, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick noted that existing 10% tariffs on other nations would likely remain. Attention is now shifting to U.S.–Japan trade discussions, with Tokyo targeting a finalised agreement by June.

Domestically, Japan reported a current account surplus of ¥3.45 trillion in March, moderating slightly from a record ¥4.06 trillion surplus in February. While the strong external balance underscores the country's resilient export performance, this has done little to support the Japanese yen (JPY) amid the prevailing risk-on sentiment. Investors appear more focused on global trade developments and interest rate differentials, which continue to drive the currency lower.

USDJPY moved sideways during the Asian and early European hours. Two key economic releases this week could impact the pair. First is the U.S. Inflation Rate report, due at 3:30 p.m. UTC tomorrow. Stronger-than-expected figures may trigger a correction in USDJPY, while weaker data could support the pair. Second is the Japan's Gross Domestic Product report, which will come out on Thursday at 11:50 p.m. UTC. A higher-than-expected number could push USDJPY to new highs, while softer data could trigger a downward correction. Key levels to watch for USDJPY are support at 145.000 and resistance at 146.200.



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📊 Euro hits new lows

On Friday, the euro (EUR) rose by 0.19% on prospects of a trade deal.

👉Possible effects for traders

The U.S. dollar (USD) faced sustained downward pressure in recent weeks due to U.S. President Donald Trump's unpredictable trade policies. However, the dollar stabilised last week after the Federal Reserve (Fed) indicated it doesn't plan further rate cuts in the near term. Investors are now closely watching the upcoming April's consumer price data for signs of tariff-driven inflation. Meanwhile, flat retail sales are anticipated in April, following a surge in March, hinting potential signals of trade-related headwinds in the broader economy.

'What we seem to have here, then, is a broad framework under which the two nations can conduct further talks, with the aim of reaching a broader trade agreement,' said Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone. 'Not the worst-case outcome that was possible from this weekend's talks, far from it, but not a concrete deal either', he added. 'Does this progress allow for any tariffs to be paused, reduced, or rolled back, and if so, for how long?'

EURUSD declined slightly in the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the formal macroeconomic calendar is rather light, so volatility will likely remain low. Technically, EURUSD will probably remain under bearish pressure as long as the price remains below the key 1.13000 level.

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📊 Gold slides on U.S.–China trade talks

Gold (XAU) declined by over 3% on Monday, falling below $3,280 towards a one-week low.

👉Possible effects for traders

Market appetite for safe-haven assets weakened amid renewed optimism surrounding U.S.–China trade relations. Over the weekend, officials from both sides concluded preliminary discussions and gave positive signals. Beijing announced its intention to begin formal negotiations, while the U.S. emphasised tangible progress towards a potential trade agreement. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that details on negotiations would be disclosed in a briefing later on Monday. The developments eased investor concerns and exerted downward pressure on gold.

On the geopolitical front, the India–Pakistan ceasefire agreement held steady overnight into Sunday, despite early accusations of violations by both sides. The lack of immediate escalation further reduced demand for safe-haven assets like gold, reinforcing the broader sell-off in precious metals at the beginning of the trading week.

Today, the economic calendar is relatively uneventful, but traders should monitor any developments in U.S. trade tariffs. 'There's strong optimism across the market of progress in U.S.–China trade talks in particular and more broadly more trade deals', said Matthew Weller, head of market research at StoneX. Key levels to watch for XAUUSD are support at $3,195 and resistance at $3,360.


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BTCUSD, 30-minute timeframe chart

👉General outlook

BTCUSD has been trading in a sideways market within the last day.

👉Possible scenario

The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 104,372.10.

Set your stop loss at 106,456.69 above the previous high ($20.87 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 102,285.58 ($20.87 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

@octa_analytics

📈 What moved the market last week?
Our latest market movers round-up reveals the key shifts:

🚀 Top Performers
🔹 XAUUSD (Gold) +2.60% — Despite losing some momentum late in the week, gold surged over 2.5% due to strong safe-haven demand and structural buying by China’s central bank (PBoC). Hopes for a U.S.–China trade deal briefly tempered the rally.
🔹 USDCAD +0.85% — The Canadian dollar held firm amid steady commodity prices.
🔹 USDCHF +0.53% — The Swiss franc edged lower as risk sentiment improved.

🔴 Biggest Laggards
🔹 EURUSD −0.42% — The euro dipped as the U.S. dollar showed mixed performance.
🔹 AUDUSD −0.48% — The Aussie dollar softened despite broader market optimism.
🔹 USDMXN −0.68% — The Mexican peso gained as risk appetite improved.

💡 Key Takeaways
- Gold (XAU) led the pack, while the rand (ZAR) lagged behind.
- The U.S. dollar was mixed: it strengthened against some majors (CAD, CHF, JPY) but weakened against EM currencies (MXN, ZAR) and the euro.
- Risk appetite improved late in the week, pressuring safe havens like gold but boosting higher-yielding assets.

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