📊 Gold continues declining after reaching record highs

The gold (XAU) price fell by 1.51% on Thursday, even though the recent data showed that the U.S. economy contracted in Q1. Meanwhile, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index remained flat in March.

👉 Possible effects for traders

Gold hit a two-week low of around $3,224 as the U.S. dollar strengthened, particularly due to signals of a possible easing in trade relations between the U.S. and China. Still, gold remains in focus for investors as a safe-haven asset amid ongoing concerns about the global economic slowdown and financial market instability.

XAUUSD rose by 0.44% during the Asian and early European trading sessions, rebounding from the $3,231 support level. Today, traders should focus on the nonfarm payroll report at 12:30 p.m. UTC. Higher-than-expected data may deepen bearish momentum in precious metals, while lower figures may support gold.

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#weekly_outlook

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USDJPY, 15-minute timeframe chart

👉General outlook

USDJPY has been trading in a bearish trend for the last couple of hours.

👉Possible scenario

The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 144.230.

Set your stop loss at 143.690 below the previous low ($3.74 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 144.770 ($3.74 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

@octa_analytics

📊 Traders are buying dips in GBPUSD

The British pound (GBP) failed to update the weekly low of 1.32594 in the trading session on Friday.

👉 Possible effects for traders

The key event for GBP this week is the Bank of England's meeting on Thursday. A widely anticipated 25-basis-point (bps) rate is expected at the meeting, with the base rate declining towards 4.25%. The decision may be accompanied by signals of a more aggressive easing monetary policy path.

'The reaction in U.K. gilts and GBP will come from the guidance and whether the door is sufficiently opened for a back-to-back cut at the June meeting and whether there is the appetite expressed in the statement to ease the bank rate to 3.5% by December', said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.

GBPUSD was rising slightly during the Asian and early European trading sessions. With today's relatively quiet economic calendar and the highly anticipated U.S. CPI report coming soon, market participants will likely be cautious, keeping volatility subdued. However, GBP traders should prepare for the U.K. Claimant Count report on Tuesday, U.K. and U.S. Inflation reports on Wednesday, and U.K. Retail Sales data on Friday. The key levels to watch are support at 1.32600 and resistance at 1.33500.

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📊 Euro is rebounding from 1.13000

On Friday, the euro (EUR) closed above 1.13000. Solid March U.S. employment data supported the dollar (USD), so markets are waiting for a hawkish Fed tone at this week's meeting.

👉 Possible effects for traders

'The labour report leaves little doubt that the FOMC will keep rates on hold this week, and the bar for cutting is now even higher for June', said Michael Feroli, head of U.S. economics at JPMorgan. 'In a period of high uncertainty, with two-sided risks to the dual mandate, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Committee will prefer to remain patient until there is more clarity in the outlook'.

The U.S. dollar could be in the early stages of a major downtrend in the years to come, according to Deutsche Bank strategists George Saravelos and Tim Baker. Part of the bearish view on the dollar is because the rest of the world doesn't want to finance the growing twin U.S. deficits. 'In a world of extreme uncertainty and rapidly changing political norms, the risk of market turmoil and regime change remains high', Saravelos and Baker wrote.

EURUSD was rising slightly during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today's macroeconomic calendar is rather uneventful, so the pair is unlikely to break out from its current trend. The key levels to watch today are support 1.12640 and resistance 1.13850.

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📊 Gold awaits U.S. rate decision this week

The gold (XAU) price closed around $3,240 on Friday. Traders now await the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision this week to understand gold's prospects.

👉 Possible effects for traders

'The U.S. dollar (USD) is looking subdued ahead of the Fed meeting this week, which is enabling gold to take a mild run higher', KCM Trade's Chief Market Analyst Tim Waterer said. 'We may see gold continue to operate in the $3,200–$3,350 range ahead of the Fed meeting. However, any new headlines on the trade deal could cause volatility to tick up once again'.

The market is closely watching the upcoming U.S. central bank policy decision and scheduled speeches from several Fed officials this week, seeking clues about the direction of future monetary policy. Following Friday's U.S. Labor Department report, which revealed stronger-than-expected job growth in April, traders are now pricing in 80 basis points of interest rate cuts beginning in July.

XAUUSD started the week by rising 0.5% during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, traders should focus on the U.S. ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) at 2:00 p.m. UTC. A higher-than-expected number will put downward pressure on XAUUSD, while lower-than-anticipated figures might suggest a bullish outlook for gold. Key levels to watch are support at $3,200 and resistance at $3,380.

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EURUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart

👉General outlook

EURUSD has been under buying pressure within the last couple of hours.

👉Possible scenario

The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 1.13550.

Set your stop loss at 1.13300 below the previous low ($2.50 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.13800 ($2.50 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

👉Fundamental factors

The U.S. ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index report will be released in a few hours and could affect this trade.

@octa_analytics

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#economic_calendar

These events may affect the market on 6 May.

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GBPJPY, 15-minute timeframe chart

👉General outlook

GBPJPY has been trading in a sideways market for the last couple of hours.

👉Possible scenario

The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 191.190.

Set your stop loss at 191.680 above the previous high ($3.41 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 190.700 ($3.41 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

@octa_analytics

USDJPY, 15-minute timeframe chart

👉Level explanation

USDJPY has been under selling pressure within the last couple of hours.

👉Possible scenario

The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 143.330.

Set your stop loss at 143.760 above the previous high ($3.00 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 142.900 ($3.00 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

@octa_analytics

📊AUDUSD hits five-month high

On Monday, the Australian dollar (AUD) gained 0.44% against the U.S. dollar (USD) but failed to hold above the critically important 0.65000 level.

👉 Possible effects for traders

AUD remained under pressure as fresh economic data pointed to softening domestic and external conditions. A sharper-than-expected decline in building permits signalled weakness in Australia's housing and construction sector—traditionally a key driver of economic activity. Adding to the headwinds, growth in the services sector of China, the main destination for Australian commodity exports, showed further signs of cooling. These developments raise concerns about Australia's near-term trade outlook and contribute to a more cautious sentiment among investors toward the Aussie.

Political stability following Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's re-election provided a degree of reassurance on the domestic front. Markets welcomed the prime minister's renewed mandate and pledge to lead a 'disciplined, orderly' government focused on addressing cost-of-living pressures and navigating global trade volatility. Nevertheless, market participants will focus on the upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) May monetary policy meeting. The central bank is expected to cut the cash rate by 25 basis points towards 3.85%. With inflation showing signs of moderating and economic momentum faltering, policymakers will likely shift towards a more accommodative stance. This stance will be supportive in the medium term but potentially bearish for the Australian dollar in the near term.

AUDUSD fell during the Asian and early European trading sessions. AUDUSD eased by 0.3% towards 0.64480, after reaching a five-month peak of 0.64940 overnight. The Australian currency slipped from its recent highs as a relentless rise in the Taiwanese dollar took a breather, with traders shifting their focus to the U.S. monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.

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Follow @octa_analytics for more expert information

📊 EURUSD consolidates

On Monday, the euro (EUR) closed above 1.13000.

👉 Possible effects for traders

Analysts believe U.S. President Donald Trump's unstable policies offer a unique opportunity for the euro to become a competing global currency. If Trump continues to impose protectionist policies, the global trade war will continue, and confidence in the U.S. dollar (USD) will decline. The weakening demand for USD could be a chance for the euro to strengthen its position as a global currency. Pressure on the U.S. dollar will likely remain in the short term, including across Asian currency markets.

The U.S. dollar’s sell-off against Asian currencies is partly driven by the unwinding of large unhedged positions taken by some investors—such as Taiwanese life insurers—amid talk of additional U.S. tariffs, according to Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. 'The dollar sold off in Asia partly because some people are worried there'd be semiconductor tariffs by the U.S. to be announced as early as Wednesday and talk that in these bilateral trade talks, the U.S. could transfer currency appreciation in East Asia', Chandler said.

EURUSD remained unchanged during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Although today's official macroeconomic calendar is uneventful, traders should watch any news regarding global trade tariffs. Key levels for EURUSD to watch are resistance at 1.12650 and support at 1.14250.

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📊 Gold rockets as Trump threatens new tariffs

Gold (XAU) rose by 2.89% on Monday as the U.S. dollar (USD) continued to decline.

👉 Possible effects for traders

U.S. President Donald Trump's new tariffs threat increased demand for the safe-haven asset. On Monday, Trump said he plans to impose duties on pharmaceutical products within the next two weeks. In addition, this week traders expect signals from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell regarding interest rates. Since December, the Fed has kept interest rates in a range of 4.25–4.5%. The market believes the meeting on Wednesday may be the last time the Fed will leave rates unchanged.

'We are seeing a continued flow of safe-haven demand, keeping gold prices elevated... prices are going to trade above the $3,000 level at least in the near-term', said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals. 'I don't think any change in interest rates is expected at this meeting, but we'll be watching it to see if the Fed is leaning any particular way'.

XAUUSD rose by 0.8% during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the calendar is relatively uneventful. Still, traders should continue monitoring developments around global trade tariffs. If the Trump administration's rhetoric continues to threaten China, XAUUSD will continue climbing towards new highs. Key levels to watch are resistance at $3,400 and support at $3,300.

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AUDUSD, 30-minute timeframe chart

👉Level explanation

AUDUSD has been trading in a bullish trend for the last couple of hours.

👉Possible scenario

The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 0.64648.

Set your stop loss at 0.64324 below the previous low ($3.24 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 0.64971 ($3.24 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

@octa_analytics

ETHUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart

👉Level explanation

ETHUSD has been under selling pressure within the last couple of hours.

👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 1,764.96.

Set your stop loss at 1,837.32 above the previous high ($7.24 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1,692.59 ($7.24 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

@octa_analytics