#economic_calendar

This event may affect the market on 2 May.

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GBPUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart

👉General outlook

GBPUSD has been trading in a bearish trend for the last couple of hours.

👉Possible scenario

The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 1.32900.

Set your stop loss at 1.32600 below the previous low ($3.00 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.33200 ($3.00 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

Some traders may close their positions on Friday, which can add more pressure to the market.

@octa_analytics

📊 Bitcoin is hitting highs again

Strong institutional inflows and supportive regulatory actions are largely driving the recent surge in Bitcoin (BTC) price. The launch of several spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) catalysed broader institutional adoption, pushing total assets under management in these products beyond $250 billion.

👉 Possible effects for traders

Meanwhile, MicroStrategy—now operating under the name Strategy—reported its fifth consecutive quarterly loss, primarily due to a $5.91 billion unrealised loss on its Bitcoin holdings. Nevertheless, the firm remains committed to its Bitcoin strategy, announcing a $21 billion equity raise to finance further purchases. 'A key change under fair value accounting is that our Bitcoin holdings are now marked only on the final day of each quarter, not continuously', noted CFO Andrew Kang during the earnings call.

BTCUSD declined slightly during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the market awaits the U.S. nonfarm payroll data at 12:30 p.m. UTC. Analysts forecast that 228,000 jobs were added in April. A higher-than-expected figure may trigger a bearish correction in Bitcoin, while softer data may support the bullish trend in BTCUSD.

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📊 EURUSD continues declining

On Thursday, the euro (EUR) lost 0.34% against the U.S. dollar (USD).

👉 Possible effects for traders

The European Central Bank (ECB) signalled potential further rate cuts. The regulator suggested a reduction towards 1.5% by the end of 2025 due to subdued growth and inflationary pressures. Additionally, new U.S. tariffs, including a 25% duty on cars, steel, and aluminium, pose challenges for eurozone exports, potentially dampening future economic growth.

'The U.S. dollar was hit so badly in the immediate aftermath of the tariffs, so now, in the broad picture, there's a normalisation in the market', said Alvin Tan, an independent currency analyst based in Singapore. 'The market is keeping one eye on the economic situation, but the other eye is looking for positive developments in China'.

EURUSD rose slightly during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, traders should focus on two reports: the eurozone's Inflation Rate at 9:00 a.m. UTC and the U.S. nonfarm payroll at 12:30 p.m. UTC. The data may affect interest rate expectations and investor sentiment, increasing volatility in the Forex market, including EURUSD. Higher-than-expected results will likely drag EURUSD towards 1.12000. Otherwise, the pair will likely rise towards 1.14000.

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📊 Gold continues declining after reaching record highs

The gold (XAU) price fell by 1.51% on Thursday, even though the recent data showed that the U.S. economy contracted in Q1. Meanwhile, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index remained flat in March.

👉 Possible effects for traders

Gold hit a two-week low of around $3,224 as the U.S. dollar strengthened, particularly due to signals of a possible easing in trade relations between the U.S. and China. Still, gold remains in focus for investors as a safe-haven asset amid ongoing concerns about the global economic slowdown and financial market instability.

XAUUSD rose by 0.44% during the Asian and early European trading sessions, rebounding from the $3,231 support level. Today, traders should focus on the nonfarm payroll report at 12:30 p.m. UTC. Higher-than-expected data may deepen bearish momentum in precious metals, while lower figures may support gold.

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#webinars_schedule #education

💫 Webinars are now right within the Octa Trading App on your Android device. Download the latest update and master your trading even more conveniently.

🔎 Apply filters to find videos for your learning needs. Set notifications for upcoming webinars to catch the moment when a live stream starts.

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🇮🇩 6/05, 7 p.m. WIB – [INDONESIAN] – Live trading session with Vito Henjoto
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🇲🇾 8/05, 9 p.m. MYT – MALAY – Live trading session with Cikgu Danie
🇬🇧 8/05, 12 p.m. UTC – ENGLISH – Webinar 'News trading. Theory and practice' with Vito Henjoto

#weekly_outlook

🔎 Keeping up-to-date with the market helps you make better trading decisions

Here’s a Weekly Market Outlook for 5 – 9 May from Vito Henjoto.

Stay informed and trade wisely.

USDJPY, 15-minute timeframe chart

👉General outlook

USDJPY has been trading in a bearish trend for the last couple of hours.

👉Possible scenario

The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 144.230.

Set your stop loss at 143.690 below the previous low ($3.74 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 144.770 ($3.74 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

@octa_analytics

📊 Traders are buying dips in GBPUSD

The British pound (GBP) failed to update the weekly low of 1.32594 in the trading session on Friday.

👉 Possible effects for traders

The key event for GBP this week is the Bank of England's meeting on Thursday. A widely anticipated 25-basis-point (bps) rate is expected at the meeting, with the base rate declining towards 4.25%. The decision may be accompanied by signals of a more aggressive easing monetary policy path.

'The reaction in U.K. gilts and GBP will come from the guidance and whether the door is sufficiently opened for a back-to-back cut at the June meeting and whether there is the appetite expressed in the statement to ease the bank rate to 3.5% by December', said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.

GBPUSD was rising slightly during the Asian and early European trading sessions. With today's relatively quiet economic calendar and the highly anticipated U.S. CPI report coming soon, market participants will likely be cautious, keeping volatility subdued. However, GBP traders should prepare for the U.K. Claimant Count report on Tuesday, U.K. and U.S. Inflation reports on Wednesday, and U.K. Retail Sales data on Friday. The key levels to watch are support at 1.32600 and resistance at 1.33500.

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📊 Euro is rebounding from 1.13000

On Friday, the euro (EUR) closed above 1.13000. Solid March U.S. employment data supported the dollar (USD), so markets are waiting for a hawkish Fed tone at this week's meeting.

👉 Possible effects for traders

'The labour report leaves little doubt that the FOMC will keep rates on hold this week, and the bar for cutting is now even higher for June', said Michael Feroli, head of U.S. economics at JPMorgan. 'In a period of high uncertainty, with two-sided risks to the dual mandate, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Committee will prefer to remain patient until there is more clarity in the outlook'.

The U.S. dollar could be in the early stages of a major downtrend in the years to come, according to Deutsche Bank strategists George Saravelos and Tim Baker. Part of the bearish view on the dollar is because the rest of the world doesn't want to finance the growing twin U.S. deficits. 'In a world of extreme uncertainty and rapidly changing political norms, the risk of market turmoil and regime change remains high', Saravelos and Baker wrote.

EURUSD was rising slightly during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today's macroeconomic calendar is rather uneventful, so the pair is unlikely to break out from its current trend. The key levels to watch today are support 1.12640 and resistance 1.13850.

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📊 Gold awaits U.S. rate decision this week

The gold (XAU) price closed around $3,240 on Friday. Traders now await the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision this week to understand gold's prospects.

👉 Possible effects for traders

'The U.S. dollar (USD) is looking subdued ahead of the Fed meeting this week, which is enabling gold to take a mild run higher', KCM Trade's Chief Market Analyst Tim Waterer said. 'We may see gold continue to operate in the $3,200–$3,350 range ahead of the Fed meeting. However, any new headlines on the trade deal could cause volatility to tick up once again'.

The market is closely watching the upcoming U.S. central bank policy decision and scheduled speeches from several Fed officials this week, seeking clues about the direction of future monetary policy. Following Friday's U.S. Labor Department report, which revealed stronger-than-expected job growth in April, traders are now pricing in 80 basis points of interest rate cuts beginning in July.

XAUUSD started the week by rising 0.5% during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, traders should focus on the U.S. ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) at 2:00 p.m. UTC. A higher-than-expected number will put downward pressure on XAUUSD, while lower-than-anticipated figures might suggest a bullish outlook for gold. Key levels to watch are support at $3,200 and resistance at $3,380.

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EURUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart

👉General outlook

EURUSD has been under buying pressure within the last couple of hours.

👉Possible scenario

The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 1.13550.

Set your stop loss at 1.13300 below the previous low ($2.50 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.13800 ($2.50 profit for 0.01 lot).

The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.

The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.

👉Fundamental factors

The U.S. ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index report will be released in a few hours and could affect this trade.

@octa_analytics

‼️ Join Octa Analytics VIP

Unlock premium signals, exclusive offers, and important events to boost your trading success.

To become a member of Octa Analytics VIP, follow these easy steps:

1️⃣ Make sure you have $50 or more in your account.
2️⃣ Take a screenshot of your balance and send it along with your Octa real account ID to our @octa_vip_bot chatbot.
3️⃣ Await verification—usually, it’s completed within one business day.

Ready to take your trading to the next level? Let us steer you toward success. The sooner you join, the more you’ll benefit from our elite trading community!

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