#economic_calendar
These events may affect the market on 16 April.
🔥 Don't forget to get a 100% deposit bonus!
These events may affect the market on 16 April.
🔥 Don't forget to get a 100% deposit bonus!
USDCAD, 15-minute timeframe chart
👉General outlook
USDCAD has been trading in a bearish trend for the last couple of hours.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 1.39310.
Set your stop loss at 1.38990 below the previous low ($2.30 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.39630 ($2.30 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
@octa_analytics
👉General outlook
USDCAD has been trading in a bearish trend for the last couple of hours.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 1.39310.
Set your stop loss at 1.38990 below the previous low ($2.30 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.39630 ($2.30 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
@octa_analytics
📊 Australian dollar benefits from weakening U.S. dollar
The Australian dollar (AUD) gained 0.27% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Tuesday. AUD continued to move higher during today's Asian and early European trading sessions as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) failed to find support in the 99.700 area and resumed its decline.
👉Possible effects for traders
The brewing trade war between the U.S. and China is considered to be a major bearish factor for AUDUSD. Still, strong capital outflows from the greenback towards alternative safe-haven currencies like the Swiss Franc (CHF) and the Japanese yen (JPY) have been supporting the Australian dollar lately. In addition, the latest macroeconomic data from China, a major export market for Australia, were surprisingly higher than expected, improving the prospects for the Australian economy. China's industrial output in March rose by 7.7% from a year earlier, quickening from 5.9% growth in January and February. Also, the gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.4% in January–March, exceeding analysts' expectations for a 5.1% rise. However, most economists consider these improvements only temporary, as rising tariffs are expected to slow the Chinese economy considerably.
Today, traders should focus on the unfolding trade tariff tensions and monitor any developments related to possible trade negotiations. Today's main event is the speech of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell at 5:00 p.m. UTC. If he gives dovish signals and confirms that the U.S. central bank is prepared to cut the rates more aggressively, AUDUSD will likely continue to rise. If Powell gives a more balanced outlook and sounds less dovish than the market expects, AUDUSD may fall. In addition, the U.S. Retail Sales report at 12:30 p.m. may add more volatility to all USD pairs. On top of that, the Australian Employment report will come out at 1:30 a.m. UTC tomorrow and may shake all AUD pairs. The market expects to see 40,000 new jobs added in March. Lower-than-expected figures will likely drive AUDUSD below 0.63120, possibly below the critical 0.62800 level. Higher-than-expected results may pull AUDUSD above 0.63800.
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The Australian dollar (AUD) gained 0.27% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Tuesday. AUD continued to move higher during today's Asian and early European trading sessions as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) failed to find support in the 99.700 area and resumed its decline.
👉Possible effects for traders
The brewing trade war between the U.S. and China is considered to be a major bearish factor for AUDUSD. Still, strong capital outflows from the greenback towards alternative safe-haven currencies like the Swiss Franc (CHF) and the Japanese yen (JPY) have been supporting the Australian dollar lately. In addition, the latest macroeconomic data from China, a major export market for Australia, were surprisingly higher than expected, improving the prospects for the Australian economy. China's industrial output in March rose by 7.7% from a year earlier, quickening from 5.9% growth in January and February. Also, the gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.4% in January–March, exceeding analysts' expectations for a 5.1% rise. However, most economists consider these improvements only temporary, as rising tariffs are expected to slow the Chinese economy considerably.
Today, traders should focus on the unfolding trade tariff tensions and monitor any developments related to possible trade negotiations. Today's main event is the speech of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell at 5:00 p.m. UTC. If he gives dovish signals and confirms that the U.S. central bank is prepared to cut the rates more aggressively, AUDUSD will likely continue to rise. If Powell gives a more balanced outlook and sounds less dovish than the market expects, AUDUSD may fall. In addition, the U.S. Retail Sales report at 12:30 p.m. may add more volatility to all USD pairs. On top of that, the Australian Employment report will come out at 1:30 a.m. UTC tomorrow and may shake all AUD pairs. The market expects to see 40,000 new jobs added in March. Lower-than-expected figures will likely drive AUDUSD below 0.63120, possibly below the critical 0.62800 level. Higher-than-expected results may pull AUDUSD above 0.63800.
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📊 Euro lacks clear trend direction
The euro (EUR) lost 0.6% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Tuesday but recovered all losses during today's Asian and early European trading session. The euro strengthened as the greenback weakened amid escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
👉Possible effects for traders
Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday that China has ordered its airlines not to take further deliveries of Boeing jets after the U.S. imposed 145% tariffs on Chinese goods. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump said he was considering modifying the 25% tariffs imposed on foreign auto and auto parts imports from Mexico, Canada, and other countries. Overall, the current tariff situation is highly uncertain, so investors remain cautious and continue to sell the greenback, favouring other safe-haven currencies like the Swiss Franc (CHF) and the Japanese yen (JPY). As a result, the euro is gaining strength due to the U.S. dollar's weakness.
As for the eurozone itself, the economic outlook remains rather bleak. Yesterday's German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index plummeted to the lowest level in nearly two years. The drop reflected growing concerns over economic uncertainty, escalating global trade tensions between the U.S. and China, and persistent fears of a slowdown of the eurozone economy. Thus, the recent EURUSD rally rests on the loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar rather than on the rise of confidence in the euro. Therefore, traders should be very careful when opening long positions in EURUSD, expecting its further rise.
Today, investors will focus on U.S. Retail Sales reports at 12:30 p.m. UTC and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's speech at 5:30 p.m. UTC. According to Reuters, retail sales in March likely surged by 1.3%, largely because consumers rushed to buy goods before tariffs took effect. As for Powell's speech, traders are speculating whether he will adopt the unexpectedly dovish stance recently or maintain a more neutral, balanced approach. Key levels to watch are resistance at 1.14230 and support at 1.13000.
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The euro (EUR) lost 0.6% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Tuesday but recovered all losses during today's Asian and early European trading session. The euro strengthened as the greenback weakened amid escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
👉Possible effects for traders
Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday that China has ordered its airlines not to take further deliveries of Boeing jets after the U.S. imposed 145% tariffs on Chinese goods. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump said he was considering modifying the 25% tariffs imposed on foreign auto and auto parts imports from Mexico, Canada, and other countries. Overall, the current tariff situation is highly uncertain, so investors remain cautious and continue to sell the greenback, favouring other safe-haven currencies like the Swiss Franc (CHF) and the Japanese yen (JPY). As a result, the euro is gaining strength due to the U.S. dollar's weakness.
As for the eurozone itself, the economic outlook remains rather bleak. Yesterday's German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index plummeted to the lowest level in nearly two years. The drop reflected growing concerns over economic uncertainty, escalating global trade tensions between the U.S. and China, and persistent fears of a slowdown of the eurozone economy. Thus, the recent EURUSD rally rests on the loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar rather than on the rise of confidence in the euro. Therefore, traders should be very careful when opening long positions in EURUSD, expecting its further rise.
Today, investors will focus on U.S. Retail Sales reports at 12:30 p.m. UTC and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's speech at 5:30 p.m. UTC. According to Reuters, retail sales in March likely surged by 1.3%, largely because consumers rushed to buy goods before tariffs took effect. As for Powell's speech, traders are speculating whether he will adopt the unexpectedly dovish stance recently or maintain a more neutral, balanced approach. Key levels to watch are resistance at 1.14230 and support at 1.13000.
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📊 Analysts expect 2025 to be bullish for gold
The gold (XAU) price rose by 0.57% on Tuesday and continued to rally strongly during the Asian and early European trading sessions earlier today. A weaker U.S. dollar (USD), escalating trade tension, and concerns over global economic growth fuel safe-haven demand for gold.
👉Possible effects for traders
A fiery trade war between the U.S. and China is igniting, with tensions rising. Nvidia, a major technology company, said yesterday it would take $5.5 billion in charges after the U.S. government limited exports of its H20 artificial intelligence chip to China. Meanwhile, China ordered its airlines not to take any further deliveries of Boeing jets in response to the U.S. imposing 145% tariffs on Chinese goods. 'Gold will continue to be strong as long as there's uncertainty', said Brian Lan, managing director at Singapore-based dealer GoldSilver Central. Traditionally considered a safe-haven asset during geopolitical and economic uncertainties, gold has hit multiple record highs this year, gaining more than 25% since the beginning of 2025.
'We believe risk-off purchases for gold are yet to pick up', analysts at ANZ said. They also raised the bank's year-end gold price forecast towards $3,600 and the six-month forecast towards $3,500. Goldman Sachs, a major U.S. investment bank, has also raised its 2025 forecast towards $3,700 amid soaring demand. According to Reuters, financial markets expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume cutting interest rates in June, after a pause in January, and reducing its policy rate by 100 basis points this year. The weak U.S. dollar exerts additional bullish pressure on XAUUSD, making gold more affordable for holders of other currencies.
Today, investors await comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his speech at 5:30 p.m. UTC for more clues on the interest rate path. In addition, the U.S. Retail Sales report at 12:30 p.m. UTC may add more volatility to all USD pairs. 'Spot gold may climb into a range of $3,304 to $3,323 per ounce', said Reuters analyst Wang Tao.
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The gold (XAU) price rose by 0.57% on Tuesday and continued to rally strongly during the Asian and early European trading sessions earlier today. A weaker U.S. dollar (USD), escalating trade tension, and concerns over global economic growth fuel safe-haven demand for gold.
👉Possible effects for traders
A fiery trade war between the U.S. and China is igniting, with tensions rising. Nvidia, a major technology company, said yesterday it would take $5.5 billion in charges after the U.S. government limited exports of its H20 artificial intelligence chip to China. Meanwhile, China ordered its airlines not to take any further deliveries of Boeing jets in response to the U.S. imposing 145% tariffs on Chinese goods. 'Gold will continue to be strong as long as there's uncertainty', said Brian Lan, managing director at Singapore-based dealer GoldSilver Central. Traditionally considered a safe-haven asset during geopolitical and economic uncertainties, gold has hit multiple record highs this year, gaining more than 25% since the beginning of 2025.
'We believe risk-off purchases for gold are yet to pick up', analysts at ANZ said. They also raised the bank's year-end gold price forecast towards $3,600 and the six-month forecast towards $3,500. Goldman Sachs, a major U.S. investment bank, has also raised its 2025 forecast towards $3,700 amid soaring demand. According to Reuters, financial markets expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume cutting interest rates in June, after a pause in January, and reducing its policy rate by 100 basis points this year. The weak U.S. dollar exerts additional bullish pressure on XAUUSD, making gold more affordable for holders of other currencies.
Today, investors await comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his speech at 5:30 p.m. UTC for more clues on the interest rate path. In addition, the U.S. Retail Sales report at 12:30 p.m. UTC may add more volatility to all USD pairs. 'Spot gold may climb into a range of $3,304 to $3,323 per ounce', said Reuters analyst Wang Tao.
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🇮🇩ID 🇮🇳IN 🇵🇰PK 🇹🇭TH
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BTCUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart
👉Level explanation
BTCUSD has been under selling pressure within the last couple of hours.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 83,200.00.
Set your stop loss at 84,100.00 above the previous high ($9.00 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 82,300.00 ($9.00 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
@octa_analytics
👉Level explanation
BTCUSD has been under selling pressure within the last couple of hours.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 83,200.00.
Set your stop loss at 84,100.00 above the previous high ($9.00 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 82,300.00 ($9.00 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
@octa_analytics
XAUUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart
👉General outlook
XAUUSD has been trading in a bullish trend for the last couple of hours.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 3,305.00.
Set your stop loss at 3,287.00 below the previous low ($18.00 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 3,323.00 ($18.00 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
@octa_analytics
👉General outlook
XAUUSD has been trading in a bullish trend for the last couple of hours.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 3,305.00.
Set your stop loss at 3,287.00 below the previous low ($18.00 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 3,323.00 ($18.00 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
@octa_analytics
👉General outlook
AUDUSD has been trading in a bearish trend for the last couple of hours.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 0.63380.
Set your stop loss at 0.63160 below the previous low ($2.20 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 0.63600 ($2.20 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
@octa_analytics
AUDUSD has been trading in a bearish trend for the last couple of hours.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 0.63380.
Set your stop loss at 0.63160 below the previous low ($2.20 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 0.63600 ($2.20 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
@octa_analytics
XAUUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart
👉General outlook
XAUUSD has been trading in a bearish trend for the last couple of hours. Now, the price displays a bullish Hammer pattern.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 3,329.00.
Set your stop loss at 3,316.00 below the previous low ($13.00 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 3,342.00 ($13.00 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
@octa_analytics
👉General outlook
XAUUSD has been trading in a bearish trend for the last couple of hours. Now, the price displays a bullish Hammer pattern.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 3,329.00.
Set your stop loss at 3,316.00 below the previous low ($13.00 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 3,342.00 ($13.00 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
@octa_analytics
GBPJPY, 15-minute timeframe chart
👉General outlook
GBPJPY has been trading in a bullish trend for the last couple of hours.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 188.850.
Set your stop loss at 188.410 below the previous low ($3.08 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 189.290 ($3.08 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
@octa_analytics
👉General outlook
GBPJPY has been trading in a bullish trend for the last couple of hours.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 188.850.
Set your stop loss at 188.410 below the previous low ($3.08 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 189.290 ($3.08 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
@octa_analytics
📊 Japanese yen rises as investors flee from U.S. dollar
The Japanese yen (JPY) gained 0.99% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Wednesday as investors continued to buy safe-haven currencies, fearing that rising tariffs would hurt the U.S. economy and the greenback.
👉Possible effects for traders
Amidst market turbulence and recessionary anxieties sparked by global trade tariffs, U.S. President Donald Trump reported 'big progress' in face-to-face tariff talks with Japan. He also said that getting a deal with Japan was a U.S. 'top priority'. According to Reuters, the JPY exchange rate, which the Trump administration has said Japan manipulates to get a trade advantage, wasn't part of the negotiation. 'It sounds like the Trump administration really does want a quick deal, which suggests it will be a less substantive deal', said Tobias Harris, founder and principal of Japan Foresight. Previously, Trump imposed 24% levies on Japan's exports to the U.S., although these tariffs have been paused for 90 days. Still, a 10% universal rate and a 25% duty for cars remain in place, which are a mainstay of Japan's export-reliant economy. Traders should continue closely monitoring the ongoing trade negotiations, as the result may significantly impact USDJPY.
USDJPY rose during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, apart from tariff-related news, traders should focus on the U.S. Jobless Claims report at 12:30 p.m. UTC. It may shed light on the state of the U.S. labour market, potentially altering investors' rate-cut expectations and triggering volatility in all USD pairs. Key levels to watch are resistance at 143.200 and support at 142.300.
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The Japanese yen (JPY) gained 0.99% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Wednesday as investors continued to buy safe-haven currencies, fearing that rising tariffs would hurt the U.S. economy and the greenback.
👉Possible effects for traders
Amidst market turbulence and recessionary anxieties sparked by global trade tariffs, U.S. President Donald Trump reported 'big progress' in face-to-face tariff talks with Japan. He also said that getting a deal with Japan was a U.S. 'top priority'. According to Reuters, the JPY exchange rate, which the Trump administration has said Japan manipulates to get a trade advantage, wasn't part of the negotiation. 'It sounds like the Trump administration really does want a quick deal, which suggests it will be a less substantive deal', said Tobias Harris, founder and principal of Japan Foresight. Previously, Trump imposed 24% levies on Japan's exports to the U.S., although these tariffs have been paused for 90 days. Still, a 10% universal rate and a 25% duty for cars remain in place, which are a mainstay of Japan's export-reliant economy. Traders should continue closely monitoring the ongoing trade negotiations, as the result may significantly impact USDJPY.
USDJPY rose during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, apart from tariff-related news, traders should focus on the U.S. Jobless Claims report at 12:30 p.m. UTC. It may shed light on the state of the U.S. labour market, potentially altering investors' rate-cut expectations and triggering volatility in all USD pairs. Key levels to watch are resistance at 143.200 and support at 142.300.
📲 More trading opportunities in our app
If the link doesn’t work, try a special one for your country:
🇮🇩ID 🇮🇳IN 🇵🇰PK 🇹🇭TH
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📊 Euro awaits ECB decision and press conference
The euro (EUR) gained 1.04% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Wednesday as the greenback continued falling due to ongoing trade conflict between the U.S. and China.
👉Possible effects for traders
The U.S. dollar has been depreciating lately due to worries about the economic consequences of trade tariffs. Investors also fled from U.S. assets amid uncertainty surrounding the unpredictable application of trade duties. As a result, other major currencies—safe-haven like the Swiss franc and risk-sensitive like the Australian dollar—appreciated. EURUSD also moved higher due to the U.S. dollar's weakness, not because of the underlying strength of the eurozone economy. 'We're in a little bit of an information vacuum now with this stalemate between China and the U.S., and we're waiting to see what deals get struck with other countries', said Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies in New York. According to Reuters, the U.S. is already trying to reach new trade deals with countries. Vice President JD Vance said there was a good chance that the U.S. and U.K. would strike a 'great agreement' on trade, but any agreements with China and the E.U. are expected to take longer.
EURUSD fell slightly during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its interest rate decision at 12:15 p.m. UTC and issue its latest Monetary Policy Statement (MPS). MPS is a critical update outlining the bank’s economic outlook and policy stance. ECB President Christine Lagarde will address the media at a press conference at 12:45 p.m. UTC. These events will likely trigger significant market volatility, particularly in EUR and related currency pairs. Market participants anticipate the ECB will lower its refinancing rate by 25 basis points (bps) towards 2.4% and reduce the deposit facility rate by 25 bps towards 2.25%.
The rate decision is important, but the market usually reacts more strongly to unexpected details in the MPS or signals from the ECB president's remarks during the Q&A session. The MPS may provide updated economic and inflation projections or hints about the ECB's monetary policy path. At the same time, Lagarde's tone and responses could clarify the bank's stance on challenges like slow growth and trade tariffs. If the ECB downgrades its economic forecast while Lagarde hints at additional rate cuts, EURUSD will likely fall sharply. Conversely, if MPS presents a more optimistic economic assessment, and Lagarde adopts a hawkish tone or delivers less dovish remarks than anticipated, EURUSD will almost certainly rise. However, the rise could be limited as the pair is already trading new multi-year highs.
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The euro (EUR) gained 1.04% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Wednesday as the greenback continued falling due to ongoing trade conflict between the U.S. and China.
👉Possible effects for traders
The U.S. dollar has been depreciating lately due to worries about the economic consequences of trade tariffs. Investors also fled from U.S. assets amid uncertainty surrounding the unpredictable application of trade duties. As a result, other major currencies—safe-haven like the Swiss franc and risk-sensitive like the Australian dollar—appreciated. EURUSD also moved higher due to the U.S. dollar's weakness, not because of the underlying strength of the eurozone economy. 'We're in a little bit of an information vacuum now with this stalemate between China and the U.S., and we're waiting to see what deals get struck with other countries', said Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies in New York. According to Reuters, the U.S. is already trying to reach new trade deals with countries. Vice President JD Vance said there was a good chance that the U.S. and U.K. would strike a 'great agreement' on trade, but any agreements with China and the E.U. are expected to take longer.
EURUSD fell slightly during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its interest rate decision at 12:15 p.m. UTC and issue its latest Monetary Policy Statement (MPS). MPS is a critical update outlining the bank’s economic outlook and policy stance. ECB President Christine Lagarde will address the media at a press conference at 12:45 p.m. UTC. These events will likely trigger significant market volatility, particularly in EUR and related currency pairs. Market participants anticipate the ECB will lower its refinancing rate by 25 basis points (bps) towards 2.4% and reduce the deposit facility rate by 25 bps towards 2.25%.
The rate decision is important, but the market usually reacts more strongly to unexpected details in the MPS or signals from the ECB president's remarks during the Q&A session. The MPS may provide updated economic and inflation projections or hints about the ECB's monetary policy path. At the same time, Lagarde's tone and responses could clarify the bank's stance on challenges like slow growth and trade tariffs. If the ECB downgrades its economic forecast while Lagarde hints at additional rate cuts, EURUSD will likely fall sharply. Conversely, if MPS presents a more optimistic economic assessment, and Lagarde adopts a hawkish tone or delivers less dovish remarks than anticipated, EURUSD will almost certainly rise. However, the rise could be limited as the pair is already trading new multi-year highs.
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📊 Safe-haven demand for gold remains strong
The gold (XAU) price surged by 3.58% on Wednesday. Investors continued to buy safe-haven assets due to the intensifying trade conflict between the U.S. and its trading partners, particularly China.
👉Possible effects for traders
Gold, which is traditionally seen as a hedge against political and economic uncertainty and inflation, has risen by more than 27% this year. Over the past two and a half years, XAUUSD has doubled its value from $1,620 in November 2022 to around $3,300 today. The recent surge in gold is driven by an ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China, with no resolution in sight. Most recently, China ordered airlines not to take further deliveries of Boeing aircraft, while the U.S. government limited Nvidia's H20 artificial intelligence chip exports to China.
Meanwhile, Jerome Powell, U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair, said the Fed would proceed with interest rate decisions only after analysing economic data. He also raised concerns about the effects of Trump's tariff policies on inflation and employment, which could deviate from the Fed's targets. Despite the increased likelihood of accelerating inflation and higher interest rates, the market paradoxically anticipates a dovish stance from the Fed. The latest interest rate swaps market data currently implies more than a 30% chance of 100 basis points (bps) worth of rate cuts by the end of the year. As a result, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continues to move near multi-year lows, making gold more attractive for foreign buyers. However, if investors' dovish expectations moderate in response to higher inflation, XAUUSD may correct downwards. Still, technical indicators remain bullish, so investors will likely buy any dips in gold. 'The rally has become a bit unhinged, leaving it at risk of corrections. However, we have for more than a year now seen corrections to be shallow, with underlying bids waiting on any setbacks', said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.
XAUUSD remained relatively flat during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision at 12:15 p.m. UTC might trigger some volatility. Additionally, U.S. Jobless Claims at 12:30 p.m. UTC will shed light on the state of the U.S. labour market, potentially altering Fed monetary policy expectations. Moreover, traders should monitor any tariff-related news and developments around trade negotiations. Key levels to watch are resistance at $3,381 and support at $3,305.
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The gold (XAU) price surged by 3.58% on Wednesday. Investors continued to buy safe-haven assets due to the intensifying trade conflict between the U.S. and its trading partners, particularly China.
👉Possible effects for traders
Gold, which is traditionally seen as a hedge against political and economic uncertainty and inflation, has risen by more than 27% this year. Over the past two and a half years, XAUUSD has doubled its value from $1,620 in November 2022 to around $3,300 today. The recent surge in gold is driven by an ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China, with no resolution in sight. Most recently, China ordered airlines not to take further deliveries of Boeing aircraft, while the U.S. government limited Nvidia's H20 artificial intelligence chip exports to China.
Meanwhile, Jerome Powell, U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair, said the Fed would proceed with interest rate decisions only after analysing economic data. He also raised concerns about the effects of Trump's tariff policies on inflation and employment, which could deviate from the Fed's targets. Despite the increased likelihood of accelerating inflation and higher interest rates, the market paradoxically anticipates a dovish stance from the Fed. The latest interest rate swaps market data currently implies more than a 30% chance of 100 basis points (bps) worth of rate cuts by the end of the year. As a result, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continues to move near multi-year lows, making gold more attractive for foreign buyers. However, if investors' dovish expectations moderate in response to higher inflation, XAUUSD may correct downwards. Still, technical indicators remain bullish, so investors will likely buy any dips in gold. 'The rally has become a bit unhinged, leaving it at risk of corrections. However, we have for more than a year now seen corrections to be shallow, with underlying bids waiting on any setbacks', said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.
XAUUSD remained relatively flat during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision at 12:15 p.m. UTC might trigger some volatility. Additionally, U.S. Jobless Claims at 12:30 p.m. UTC will shed light on the state of the U.S. labour market, potentially altering Fed monetary policy expectations. Moreover, traders should monitor any tariff-related news and developments around trade negotiations. Key levels to watch are resistance at $3,381 and support at $3,305.
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Octa surveyed CFD traders—and the results are eye-opening.
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BTCUSD, 15-minute timeframe chart
👉General outlook
BTCUSD has been trading in a bearish trend for the last couple of hours.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 84,500.00.
Set your stop loss at 83,900.00 below the previous low ($6.000 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 85,100.00 ($6.00 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
Some traders may close their positions on Friday, which can add more pressure to the market.
@octa_analytics
👉General outlook
BTCUSD has been trading in a bearish trend for the last couple of hours.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 84,500.00.
Set your stop loss at 83,900.00 below the previous low ($6.000 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 85,100.00 ($6.00 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
Some traders may close their positions on Friday, which can add more pressure to the market.
@octa_analytics
📊 ETF investors believe in Bitcoin
On Thursday, Bitcoin (BTC) gained 1.11% against the U.S. dollar (USD) and was moving near $85,000 due to continued inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
👉Possible effects for traders
The ETFs and Saylor have been buying up all the "dumps" from the tourists, FTX refugees, GBTC discounters, legal unlocks, govt confiscations, and Lord knows who else', said Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. Michael Saylor's firm, Strategy, purchased 3,459 BTC for $285.5 million on 14 April at an average price of $82,618. Over the past 30 days, BTCUSD ETFs have attracted $131.04 million and are up $2.4 billion since 1 January. Balchunas called these inflows 'impressive', noting they help explain why Bitcoin has been relatively stable.
The expected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) are the second major factor that could support crypto investors. Jerome Powell, U.S. Fed Chair, stated there were concerns about Trump's tariffs policy, which will negatively impact inflation and unemployment rates. Thus, the Fed may have to reduce the base rate more aggressively than the regulator planned to.
BTCUSD declined slightly during the Asian and early European trading sessions. The price is moving above $84,500, and the 100-hour simple moving average zone—a strong support level—is being tested. BTC must break above the $85,200 resistance to continue rising in the near term. Low volatility is expected due to the Easter holidays between 17 and 22 April, which may limit BTCUSD moves.
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On Thursday, Bitcoin (BTC) gained 1.11% against the U.S. dollar (USD) and was moving near $85,000 due to continued inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
👉Possible effects for traders
The ETFs and Saylor have been buying up all the "dumps" from the tourists, FTX refugees, GBTC discounters, legal unlocks, govt confiscations, and Lord knows who else', said Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. Michael Saylor's firm, Strategy, purchased 3,459 BTC for $285.5 million on 14 April at an average price of $82,618. Over the past 30 days, BTCUSD ETFs have attracted $131.04 million and are up $2.4 billion since 1 January. Balchunas called these inflows 'impressive', noting they help explain why Bitcoin has been relatively stable.
The expected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) are the second major factor that could support crypto investors. Jerome Powell, U.S. Fed Chair, stated there were concerns about Trump's tariffs policy, which will negatively impact inflation and unemployment rates. Thus, the Fed may have to reduce the base rate more aggressively than the regulator planned to.
BTCUSD declined slightly during the Asian and early European trading sessions. The price is moving above $84,500, and the 100-hour simple moving average zone—a strong support level—is being tested. BTC must break above the $85,200 resistance to continue rising in the near term. Low volatility is expected due to the Easter holidays between 17 and 22 April, which may limit BTCUSD moves.
📲 More trading opportunities in our app
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📊 Euro declines after ECB rate cut
The euro (EUR) lost 0.31% against the U.S. dollar (USD) after the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its base rate, as expected.
👉Possible effects for traders
On Thursday, the European Central Bank cut its interest rate for the seventh time in a year. The regulator also cautioned that U.S. tariffs would significantly impede economic growth, increasing expectations for further monetary easing in the coming months. 'It has a dovish tone. Focus has shifted to looking at the downside risk to the growth outlook, rather than upside risk to inflation', said Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen, FX analyst at Danske Bank. Indeed, interest rate swaps market data currently implies a 20% chance that the ECB will reduce its base rate towards just 1.25% by mid-2026, putting it substantially below the Federal Reserve's (Fed) expected base rate. The divergence in monetary policy expectations may be shifting in the U.S. dollar's favour.
Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, said that the U.S. central bank would wait for more economic data before changing interest rates. Still, he cautioned that Trump's tariff policies may push inflation and employment indicators further from the central bank's goal. At the same time, Thursday's data showed that the number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, suggesting that labour market conditions remained stable in April. Overall, the risk of a strong downward correction in EURUSD has increased. If the U.S. strikes a trade deal with Japan over the weekend, U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) may jump sharply, pushing other currencies lower.
EURUSD remained relatively unchanged during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the U.S. market is closed due to the Good Friday holiday, and volatility will likely be low. Also, the liquidity will likely remain thin until Tuesday as the U.S. and other countries celebrate Easter on Monday. Traders should monitor any tariff-related news and negotiations, specifically with Japan. Key levels to watch are resistance at 1.14250 and support at 1.12780.
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The euro (EUR) lost 0.31% against the U.S. dollar (USD) after the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its base rate, as expected.
👉Possible effects for traders
On Thursday, the European Central Bank cut its interest rate for the seventh time in a year. The regulator also cautioned that U.S. tariffs would significantly impede economic growth, increasing expectations for further monetary easing in the coming months. 'It has a dovish tone. Focus has shifted to looking at the downside risk to the growth outlook, rather than upside risk to inflation', said Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen, FX analyst at Danske Bank. Indeed, interest rate swaps market data currently implies a 20% chance that the ECB will reduce its base rate towards just 1.25% by mid-2026, putting it substantially below the Federal Reserve's (Fed) expected base rate. The divergence in monetary policy expectations may be shifting in the U.S. dollar's favour.
Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, said that the U.S. central bank would wait for more economic data before changing interest rates. Still, he cautioned that Trump's tariff policies may push inflation and employment indicators further from the central bank's goal. At the same time, Thursday's data showed that the number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, suggesting that labour market conditions remained stable in April. Overall, the risk of a strong downward correction in EURUSD has increased. If the U.S. strikes a trade deal with Japan over the weekend, U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) may jump sharply, pushing other currencies lower.
EURUSD remained relatively unchanged during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the U.S. market is closed due to the Good Friday holiday, and volatility will likely be low. Also, the liquidity will likely remain thin until Tuesday as the U.S. and other countries celebrate Easter on Monday. Traders should monitor any tariff-related news and negotiations, specifically with Japan. Key levels to watch are resistance at 1.14250 and support at 1.12780.
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📊 Gold retreats from its high
The gold (XAU) price failed to hold above the important $3,336 level yesterday. Some investors opted to secure profits and exit long positions before the extended weekend.
👉Possible effects for traders
Although a rally in XAUUSD seems to have paused, the pair remains in a very strong uptrend. The weak U.S. dollar (USD), escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China, and structural demand of global central banks continue to support the bullion. 'I think (gold) is quite overbought, and there's some profit taking at work... However, big dips in gold will be bought into because the landscape going into 2025 is still very uncertain', said Marex analyst Edward Meir. The tariff drama is still unfolding. Recently, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a probe into potential tariffs on all critical mineral imports, in addition to reviews of pharmaceutical and chip imports.
At the same time, the U.S. is currently negotiating trade tariffs with several countries, and there is a possibility that a trade deal with Japan could be announced over the weekend. This may provoke a downward correction in gold. 'We remain bullish towards gold. That said, near-term corrections are likely to occur as tactical players take profits or perhaps experience margin calls triggered by another round of equity liquidations', said analysts at consultancy Metals Focus.
Today, the U.S. market is closed due to the Good Friday holiday. Volatility will also be low on Monday due to the Easter Monday holiday. Traders should keep an eye on any tariff-related news and developments around trade talks, specifically with Japan. Key levels to watch are resistance at $3,360 and support at $3,283.
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The gold (XAU) price failed to hold above the important $3,336 level yesterday. Some investors opted to secure profits and exit long positions before the extended weekend.
👉Possible effects for traders
Although a rally in XAUUSD seems to have paused, the pair remains in a very strong uptrend. The weak U.S. dollar (USD), escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China, and structural demand of global central banks continue to support the bullion. 'I think (gold) is quite overbought, and there's some profit taking at work... However, big dips in gold will be bought into because the landscape going into 2025 is still very uncertain', said Marex analyst Edward Meir. The tariff drama is still unfolding. Recently, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a probe into potential tariffs on all critical mineral imports, in addition to reviews of pharmaceutical and chip imports.
At the same time, the U.S. is currently negotiating trade tariffs with several countries, and there is a possibility that a trade deal with Japan could be announced over the weekend. This may provoke a downward correction in gold. 'We remain bullish towards gold. That said, near-term corrections are likely to occur as tactical players take profits or perhaps experience margin calls triggered by another round of equity liquidations', said analysts at consultancy Metals Focus.
Today, the U.S. market is closed due to the Good Friday holiday. Volatility will also be low on Monday due to the Easter Monday holiday. Traders should keep an eye on any tariff-related news and developments around trade talks, specifically with Japan. Key levels to watch are resistance at $3,360 and support at $3,283.
📲 More trading opportunities in our app
If the link doesn’t work, try a special one for your country:
🇮🇩ID 🇮🇳IN 🇵🇰PK 🇹🇭TH
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