📊 Better-than-expected NFP data weakens euro

The euro (EUR) fell by 0.23% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Friday following the stronger-than-expected nonfarm payroll (NFP) report.

👉 Possible effects for traders
The data showed that 139,000 new jobs were added in May, exceeding the 125,000 forecast by economists. While the headline figure temporarily boosted the greenback, a downward revision to April's numbers moderated enthusiasm and highlighted the fragile momentum in the labour market. This data came against a backdrop of broader economic uncertainty, with investors assessing the impact of prolonged tariff negotiations and a potential slowdown in economic activity.

Despite Friday's losses, the euro remains on track for a modest weekly gain amid lingering concerns over stalled U.S.–China trade talks and geopolitical tensions. Market sentiment was further clouded by the lack of progress in a recent phone call between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, which weighed on the U.S. dollar. Additionally, a public dispute between President Trump and Elon Musk added to market volatility.

EURUSD edged higher during Asian and early European trading sessions. The macroeconomic calendar is rather light today, so the established trend will likely continue. Low volatility may also prompt traders to take profits on long positions, potentially triggering a temporary sell-off in EURUSD.

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📊 JPY falls on weak domestic economic data

The Japanese yen (JPY) weakened towards 144,000 on Friday. The currency's recent decline extended as markets turned cautious ahead of Friday's U.S. nonfarm payroll report.

👉 Possible effects for traders
The yen's weakness was further influenced by renewed hopes for progress in U.S.–China trade talks following a call between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. However, the lack of tangible developments kept investor sentiment guarded.

Domestically, Japan's economic outlook faced headwinds after household spending unexpectedly declined in April, signalling that elevated prices continue to erode consumer demand. The disappointing data adds to the challenges the Bank of Japan (BoJ) faces as it assesses the appropriate timing for its next policy move. Nonetheless, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated the central bank's readiness to raise interest rates if inflation and economic conditions align, supporting the view that Japan remains on a path towards policy normalisation.

USDJPY fell during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the macroeconomic calendar is relatively uneventful for USDJPY, so the short-term bullish trend may continue despite the resistance level at 144,200–145,000.

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📊 Gold falls following strong NFP report

The gold price (XAU) fell by 0.57% on Friday after U.S. nonfarm payroll (NFP) report showed stronger-than-expected job growth in May.

👉 Possible effects for traders
U.S. labour data released on Friday showed stronger-than-expected job growth, with payrolls rising by 139,000 in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While this figure marks a slight decline from April's revised 147,000, it exceeded the consensus forecasts of 125,000, signalling underlying resilience in employment despite growing economic headwinds. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, suggesting continued tightness in the labour market.

The NFP data surprised the market, especially after a significantly weaker ADP private payrolls report earlier in the week. The report showed a mere 37,000 new jobs in May—well below the expected 110,000. The divergence between government and private-sector data has added complexity to the macroeconomic outlook, prompting investors recalibrating expectations for potential Federal Reserve monetary policy moves in the coming months.

XAUUSD remained unchanged during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the formal macroeconomic calendar is relatively uneventful, but traders should watch for any developments in U.S. trade relations. Key levels to watch for XAUUSD are support at $3,290 and resistance at $3,345.

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📊 Gold edges higher despite easing U.S.–China tensions

The gold price (XAU) rose by 0.46% on Monday despite a decline in safe-haven demand caused by easing U.S.–China trade tensions.

👉 Possible effects for traders
Diplomatic engagement between Washington and Beijing boosted risk appetite, prompting market participants to shift away from traditional defensive assets like gold and government bonds. This change in sentiment followed the commencement of high-level negotiations in London. Officials from both countries met to stabilise a relationship strained not just by tariffs but also by strategic export controls on critical materials such as rare earth elements.

Statements from senior U.S. officials added to the optimism. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent characterised Monday's discussions as 'a good meeting', while Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick labelled them fruitful. These comments signalled a constructive tone and strengthened investor expectations of meaningful progress toward de-escalation. As a result, equity markets responded positively, interpreting the dialogue as a step towards restoring policy certainty between the world's two largest economies.

XAUUSD declined during Asian and early European trading sessions after yesterday's rise. Today, the formal macroeconomic calendar is relatively uneventful. Still, traders should monitor any developments in U.S. trade relations, which could impact market sentiment. Key levels to watch for XAUUSD are support at $3,290 and resistance at $3,345.

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📊 EURUSD moves sideways due to a lack of significant data

The euro (EUR) rose slightly by 0.22% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Monday.

👉 Possible effects for traders
The rebound was supported by investor confidence that a diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Beijing—particularly in areas such as rare-earth minerals and advanced technologies—could help ease global economic uncertainty and improve risk sentiment. Comments from U.S. officials confirmed that the negotiations were fruitful and that both countries made significant progress toward de-escalation.

On the monetary policy front, the European Central Bank's (ECB) recent 25-basis-point rate cut was an effort to support growth by lowering borrowing costs to their weakest level since November 2022. While the central bank revised its inflation forecasts downward for 2025 and 2026, it also hinted that the current easing cycle may soon come to an end. This shift in tone tempered expectations of further aggressive cuts, creating a more cautious outlook and contributing to the euro's resilience as traders reassessed the future path of European monetary policy.

EURUSD declined during Asian and early European trading sessions. The macroeconomic calendar is rather light today, so the established trend will likely continue. Traders should also monitor speeches from ECB officials. Key levels for EURUSD to watch are resistance at 1.14000 and support at 1.13800.

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📊 Sterling strengthens as U.S.–China talks take spotlight

On Monday, the British pound (GBP) rose by 0.16% against the U.S. dollar (USD).

👉 Possible effects for traders

U.K. unemployment edged up towards 4.6% in the three months to April 2025, aligning with market expectations and marking the highest rate since the three months to August 2021. The uptick from 4.5% reflects growing labour market slack, primarily due to increases in both short-term unemployment (up to six months) and long-term joblessness (over one year).

The data highlights underlying structural pressures in the labour market, suggesting a slower pace of reabsorption for displaced workers amid persistent economic headwinds. Although the overall unemployment rate didn't surprise the market, the rise in long-term joblessness may lead policymakers to reconsider how they balance job support with controlling inflation, especially as the Bank of England plans its next policy move.

GBPUSD fell during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Although markets remained relatively quiet, traders should stay vigilant for any updates related to global trade tariffs. If the U.S. and China adopt a more conciliatory stance on tariffs, GBPUSD could correct sharply lower as improving risk sentiment reduces demand for safe-haven currencies. Key levels to watch are resistance at 1.35000 and support at 1.36000.

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