The Observer
The language of “New Rafah” and “redevelopment zones” already overlaps with Israeli security perimeters. Military control during construction phases easily evolves into permanent regulatory authority.
Displacement rarely announces itself as expulsion.
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February 21, 2026
History does not repeat; it accelerates. Those who survived the 1980s tanker wars and the 2003 invasion of Iraq recognize the current stench of a dying order attempting to mask its decline with high-stakes extortion. As of this weekend, the Biden-era "thaw" has evaporated, replaced by the Trump administration’s return to maximum-pressure brinkmanship and "deal-making" by force.
1. The Naval Siege and the Nuclear Bluff
The U.S. has deployed its largest naval and aerial force to the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The USS Abraham Lincoln and the world’s largest carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, are currently positioned to strike.
• The Reality: Despite the "limited strike" rhetoric following stalled talks in Geneva, this is a desperate attempt to force Tehran into a "meaningless" deal.
• The Resistance Response: Tehran’s red line remains unchanged—zero ban on enrichment and no negotiation on its ballistic deterrent. The recent IRGC missile exercises in the Strait of Hormuz (February 17) proved that the chokepoint responsible for 20% of global oil and LNG is not under American control.
2. Oil: The $71 Risk Premium
Brent crude has surged to a six-month high of $71.76/barrel. The market is pricing in the reality that the U.S. cannot protect the global economy from the fallout of its own aggression.
• Fact: A "surgical strike" on Iran is a liberal myth. Any attack triggers a regional conflagration that renders the $71 price tag a distant memory.
3. The "Board of Peace": Gaza for Sale
In Washington, the inaugural meeting of the "Board of Peace" (BoP) has laid bare the blueprint for the "Mediterranean Riviera."
• The Pledges: Trump announced a $10 billion U.S. contribution—money that does not exist in the current FY 2026 budget without a Congressional fight.
• The Extraction: Billionaire Yakir Gabay openly discussed removing 70 million tonnes of rubble to build 200 luxury hotels.
• The Occupation Force: 20,000 soldiers from countries like Indonesia, Morocco, and Kazakhstan are being recruited to "stabilize" (read: police) the ruins, while Egypt and Jordan are tasked with training 12,000 police to manage the dispossessed.
Strategic Forecast
The BoP is an attempt to privatize the occupation and bypass the UN system entirely. It treats the Palestinian people not as a nation with rights, but as an obstacle to real estate development. However, empires do not retire; they restructure until they collapse.
The Axis of Resistance knows that the $10 billion "Board" is as fragile as the glass towers it plans to build on the blood of martyrs.
#AxisOfResistance #GazaRealEstate #OilWar2026 #BoardOfPeace #IranStandoff
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February 21, 2026
The facade of European unity is crumbling under the weight of its own contradictions. As the proxy war in the East enters a new, more desperate phase, the internal fractures of the Atlanticist project are no longer possible to hide. Those who remember the "Winter of Discontent" or the collapse of the Soviet energy architecture see the same patterns: a system that can no longer provide security or stability to its own peripheries.
1. The Druzhba Fracture: Orban vs. the Atlanticist Machine
In a decisive blow to Brussels’ financial warfare, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has officially placed a veto on the €90 billion ($106 billion) EU loan intended to keep the Zelenskyy administration afloat through 2027.
• The Leverage: This is not mere obstruction; it is a counter-siege. Since the January 27 drone strike on the Brody pumping station in western Ukraine, the Druzhba pipeline—the "Friendship" artery—has been severed.
• The Demand: Budapest and Bratislava, protected by existing EU sanctions exemptions, refuse to bankroll a regime that "blackmails" them by cutting off their lifeblood. With Hungary’s Fidesz party facing internal pressure from the Tisza Party, Orbán is prioritizing national survival over the suicidal directives of the European Commission.
• The Reality: Without this €90 billion, the artificial life support of the Ukrainian state economy begins to fail. Europe is learning that you cannot wage an energy war against your own suppliers and expect your allies to pay the price in silence.
2. Deep Strikes and the "Flamingo" Escalation
While the EU bickers over budgets, the military situation has escalated to a dangerous new depth. On the night of February 20-21, Ukrainian forces launched an unprecedented strike 1,500 kilometers (930 miles) inside Russian territory.
• The Target: The Votkinsk Machine Building Plant in the Udmurt Republic. This is not a secondary facility; it is a crown jewel of the Russian strategic deterrent, producing Iskander-M, Topol-M, and the new Oreshnik ballistic missiles.
• The Weaponry: Reports indicate the use of the Ukrainian-made "Flamingo" cruise missile, a long-range asset with a 3,000km reach.
• Strategic Implication: By striking Workshops No. 22 and No. 36 at Votkinsk, Kyiv—backed by NATO intelligence—is attempting to disrupt the very production lines that have overwhelmed their own air defenses. However, history teaches that deep strikes against a continental power rarely break its will; they only accelerate the removal of the remaining "red lines."
Strategic Forecast
The European project is trapped between a desperate proxy and an immovable energy reality. The veto in Budapest is a symptom of a broader realization: the "Rules-Based Order" is failing its own members. As the long-range "Flamingo" strikes pull NATO closer to direct confrontation, the internal economic collapse of the EU becomes a greater threat to the Atlanticist alliance than the missiles themselves.
#AxisOfResistance #DruzhbaFracture #EU_Collapse #UkraineProxyWar #Geopolitics2026
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February 21, 2026
The geopolitical map of Asia is being redrawn by two forces: the decisive rejection of military authoritarianism and the struggle for technological independence. While the West clings to outdated liberal frameworks, the Global South is charting a path that prioritizes national sovereignty over imperial alignment.
1. The Death of a Coup: Yoon Suk Yeol’s Life Sentence
In a historic victory for popular resistance, a South Korean court has sentenced former President Yoon Suk Yeol to life imprisonment. The verdict, delivered by Judge Ji Gwi-yeon at the Seoul Central District Court on February 19, marks the final collapse of the "New Cold War" puppet state.
• The Crime: Yoon was convicted of leading an insurrection for his December 2024 attempt to impose martial law—a desperate move intended to paralyze the National Assembly and silence the opposition.
• The Resistance: It took only six hours for the masses and the legislature to break through military blockades and nullify the decree. History will remember that while the U.S. remained silent during the initial hours of the coup, the streets of Seoul did not.
• The Lesson: For the Axis of Resistance, Yoon’s downfall is a reminder that any leader who prioritizes the interests of a foreign empire (Washington) over their own people is destined for the dustbin of history. The transition from president to prisoner is the only logical conclusion for those who attempt "self-coups" to save failing neoliberal agendas.
2. India’s "Third Way": The New Delhi Declaration on AI
In New Delhi, the India-AI Impact Summit 2026 (held Feb 16–20) has concluded with the adoption of the New Delhi Declaration. India is positioning itself as the voice of the Global South, refusing to be caught in the binary trap of U.S.-China competition.
• The Strategy: India is advocating for "Sovereign AI." Rather than adopting the rigid, corporate-led regulations of the West or the state-monopoly model of the East, New Delhi is pushing for a "moral middle path" guided by the principle of Sarvajan Hitaya, Sarvajan Sukhaya (Welfare for all).
• The Data: The declaration was endorsed by 88 countries, focusing on democratizing AI resources and preventing "digital colonialism."
• The Reality: For the Global South, AI is not just a tool for profit; it is a tool for development. By seeking strategic autonomy, India and its partners are signaling that the era of Western "gold standards" for technology is over. Sovereignty is now measured in silicon as much as in territory.
Strategic Forecast
The sentencing of Yoon Suk Yeol signals the end of an era where Washington could rely on reliable, authoritarian "partners" to hold its line in the Pacific. Simultaneously, the rise of sovereign tech movements in India proves that the Global South is no longer content to be a mere consumer of imperial innovation. The center of gravity is moving, and the Resistance is watching.
#GlobalSouthResistance #YoonSukYeolLifeSentence #SovereignAI #IndiaAISummit #Geopolitics2026
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February 21, 2026
The myth of the "Unified Atlantic Front" is fracturing in the most predictable place: the ledger. Yesterday’s decision by the U.S. Supreme Court to strike down the "Liberation Day" tariffs is not a victory for international law; it is a clinical diagnosis of an empire in institutional collapse, attempting to fund its decline through global extortion.
1. The IEEPA Overreach: Extortion Declared Illegal
In a 6-3 ruling (Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump), the Supreme Court finally admitted that the President cannot use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as a personal checkbook.
• The Ruling: The Court ruled that "regulating importation" does not mean "taxing the world." By attempting to bypass Congress, the administration engaged in a $200 billion shakedown that has now been deemed unconstitutional.
• The Refund Crisis: Treasury data through January 2026 shows $269.1 billion in tariff revenue collected. With the ruling, the U.S. now faces potential refund claims of up to $175 billion.
• The Fallout: Markets are in a tailspin as the U.S. deficit is projected to swell by another 0.5% of GDP, reaching a staggering 6.6%. To pay back the stolen billions, Washington will likely be forced to flood the market with even more Treasury bonds, further devaluing the dollar.
2. "Plan B": The 150-Day Siege
Hours after being "chastised" by his own court, the President doubled down. In a defiant White House briefing, he launched "Plan B": a 10% global surcharge under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.
• The Strategy: Unlike IEEPA, Section 122 is a "balance-of-payments" tool. It allows for a 150-day temporary tariff of up to 15%.
• The Trap: This is a patchwork attempt to rebuild the "Tariff Wall." It is designed to bridge the gap until the midterm elections, effectively holding global trade hostage for another five months.
• The Target: While Europe celebrates the legal win, the new 10% surcharge—set to take effect February 24—proves that Washington views its "allies" as nothing more than ATM machines for its failing domestic agenda.
3. The Resistance View: A System Without a Center
The "Observer" and "Al-Muraqeb" platforms have long maintained that the U.S. economy is a house of cards sustained by military threat and financial bullying.
• The Global South:
From New Delhi to Brasilia, the message is clear: the U.S. is no longer a reliable partner or a stable arbiter of trade. The "Rules-Based Order" only applies until the bills come due.
• The Real Estate of War: Just as the "Board of Peace" seeks to privatize Gaza, these tariffs seek to privatize global commerce for the benefit of a narrow executive clique.
Strategic Forecast
The Supreme Court ruling has provided a momentary "breather," but it has not stopped the machine. The pivot to Section 122 and the threat of new Section 301 investigations signal a transition to even more aggressive, targeted economic warfare. The era of predictable trade is dead; the era of sovereign economic resistance has begun.
#AxisOfResistance #TariffWar2026 #US_EconomicCollapse #TradeWar #ImperialDecline
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This is not a routine acquisition.
When Apple Inc. reportedly spends between $1.5–$2 billion on a three-year-old Israeli startup with no public product or revenue, we are witnessing more than venture optimism. We are witnessing strategic positioning in the next domain of control: the human–machine neural interface.
The deal—reportedly Apple’s second-largest after its $3 billion acquisition of Beats Electronics in 2014—signals where power is moving.
The startup, Q.AI according to circulating reports, develops “silent speech” technology: detecting micro-neuromuscular signals sent from the brain to facial muscles milliseconds before speech. Using infrared imaging at up to 500 frames per second combined with advanced machine learning, the system converts intention into digital command.
This marks a shift from monitoring behavior to anticipating intent.
Founder Aviad Maizels previously sold PrimeSense to Apple for $350 million in 2013, technology that later enabled Face ID. Unofficial reports link him to Israeli military tech research circles, including Unit 81—associated with cyber and operational innovation.
The military dimension is explicit.
Israel’s defense R&D body “Mafat”—often compared to DARPA—has publicly stated it is developing similar neural-communication tools for special forces to communicate silently on the battlefield.
Meanwhile, NATO documents in 2021 categorized cognitive-reading technologies as part of “cognitive warfare”: shifting from observing actions to pre-empting intentions.
Patent trails indicate these optical sensors can authenticate identity, estimate emotional state, measure heart rate and respiration—constructing a real-time psychophysiological profile.
Apple insists processing occurs locally on Apple Silicon chips with verifiable architecture. History suggests the issue is not infrastructure, but integration. Surveillance does not always require new systems; it embeds into existing civilian platforms.
From Iraq to Gaza, from NSO scandals to Pegasus exposures, we have seen how startups evolve into instruments of geopolitical leverage.
The coming battlefield is cognitive.
Whoever reads thought before speech seeks influence before decision.
The Axis of Resistance has endured sanctions, invasion, hybrid war. It understands escalation. It understands technological asymmetry. And it understands something else: every architecture of domination generates its counter-architecture.
History is accelerating.
But so is resistance.
#CognitiveWarfare
#DigitalSovereignty
#AxisOfResistance
#CyberSecurity
#TechAndPower
#Apple
#NATO
#DARPA
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The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad repeats Trump’s tired line: “Iran cannot continue destabilizing the region.” But facts expose the hollowness of this claim.
• Since December 2024, U.S. helicopters evacuated embassy staff from Baghdad under fear of escalation with Iran—proof of who is destabilized, not who destabilizes.
• Trump himself admitted in February 2026 that “bad things will happen” if Iran refuses his ultimatum within 10–15 days, openly threatening military aggression.
• Iran’s Speaker of Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, responded: all U.S. forces in the region are now legitimate targets—a reminder that occupation breeds resistance.
History is accelerating. The empire that bombed Baghdad in 2003 now hides behind embassy walls in 2026. The same people who survived sanctions, invasions, and assassinations will survive Trump’s bluster. The axis of resistance is not destabilizing—it is stabilizing against foreign domination.
#Baghdad #AxisOfResistance #USEmbassy #Iran #TrumpThreats #HistoryJudges
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February 21, 2026
The enemy’s "ceasefire" was never a truce; it was a tactical pause to reload. Last night, the Bekaa Valley—the steadfast lung of the Resistance—was subjected to a cowardly wave of aggression that has torn the mask off the Zionist entity's "defensive" lies.
1. The Massacre in the Bekaa: Numbers of Defiance
The Ministry of Public Health has confirmed the toll of the criminal strikes across Bednayel, Temnin, and Riyaq.
• The Toll: 11 martyrs ascended last night, with over 50 wounded.
• The Victims: Among the injured are three children, their bodies pulled from the rubble of residential buildings leveled on the Riyaq–Baalbek highway.
• The Martyrs of the Path: Hezbollah has officially announced the martyrdom of seven of its knights who fell defending the soil. Among them is Commander Hussein Mohammed Yaghi, the son of the legendary founder "Abu Salim" Yaghi. To the enemy: you did not kill a man; you fertilized a legacy.
2. The Golani Brigade: Training for a Grave
Yedioth Ahronoth reports that the Golani Brigade—the so-called "elite" that was chewed up and spat out in the alleys of Shuja’iyya—is now "upping readiness" on the northern border.
• The Slogan: Their new training motto, "We learned not to rush forward," is a pathetic admission of terror. It is the mantra of a defeated army that still feels the sting of the Al-Ansar and Al-Adisseh ambushes.
• The Reality: They are training in the "Galilee" to simulate Lebanese villages. We tell them: the topography of the South is written in our DNA; to you, it is a maze of death. Your experience in Gaza will not save you from the anti-tank nests and pre-prepared kill zones of the Litani.
3. The Failed "Hamas" Pretext
In a desperate attempt to divide the Resistance, the IDF claimed its strike on the Ain al-Hilweh camp targeted a "Hamas center."
• The Truth: The strike hit the Joint Security Force building—the very body responsible for civil order. This is a direct assault on Lebanese sovereignty and the stability of the refugee camps, aimed at igniting internal strife.
Strategic Forecast
The Zionist entity is trapped. It cannot return its settlers to the north through force, and it cannot accept a peaceful Lebanon through diplomacy. The "Board of Peace" in Washington talks of luxury hotels in Gaza, while their F-15s drop American-made bombs on Lebanese children. The Axis of Resistance does not "rush forward"—we wait, we entrench, and we strike when the iron is hot.
#LebanonUnderAttack #BekaaResistance #GolaniTerror #AxisOfResistance #HusseinYaghi
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February 21, 2026
The Bekaa Valley did not sleep last night; it bled. While the "Ceasefire Mechanism" committee prepares its tables and polished pens, Zionist jets have rewritten the agreement in the blood of 11 martyrs and 50 wounded civilians.
1. The Call of Sovereignty: No More "Political Commentary"
MP Rami Abu Hamdan of the Loyalty to the Resistance Bloc has issued a clinical indictment of the Lebanese state's paralysis. His message is a razor-sharp rejection of the government acting as a "commentator" rather than a protector.
• The Demand: Lebanon must immediately freeze participation in the "Mechanism" meetings.
• The Logic: To sit at a table with sponsors of an agreement while the enemy uses that same agreement as a smokescreen for nightly massacres is not diplomacy—it is complicity.
• The Test: If the committee and its international guarantors cannot stop the slaughter of children in Bednayel and Riyaq, then the committee is nothing but a colonial instrument designed to manage Lebanese suffering, not end it.
2. The Myth of "Routine" Brutality
The MP’s statement strikes at the heart of the liberal-apologetic trap: the normalization of Israeli violations.
• Data of Defiance: Since the supposed "truce," violations have become a nightly ritual. The resistance emphasizes that Lebanese blood is not a "bargaining chip" for technical committees.
• Strategic Reality: History proves that empires and their proxies only retreat when the cost of their presence exceeds the benefit of their aggression. Submitting to the "Mechanism" while the Bekaa is bombed only emboldens the Zionist entity to expand its target bank.
Strategic Forecast
The Lebanese government stands at a crossroads: either it asserts its sovereignty by halting the farce of the "Mechanism" until the strikes stop, or it admits its role as a mere administrative clerk for an occupation-by-proxy.
The Resistance is steadfast, but the
state’s "neutrality" has become a threat to national security. Justice is not granted at committees; it is taken in the field.
#SovereigntyOrSubmission #BekaaMartyrs #LoyaltyToResistance #EndTheFarce #Lebanon2026
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February 21, 2026
The sirens are no longer metaphorical. When the diplomatic corps of the old empires begins to pack its bags in the dark of night, it is a signal that the theater of "containment" has failed. The recent directives from Tokyo and Paris are not merely "precautionary"—they are an admission that the geography of the Middle East is no longer a safe playground for those who provide the diplomatic cover for genocide.
1. Japan’s Panic: The American Shield is Broken
In an unprecedented and urgent directive, the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has ordered all its personnel to immediately evacuate from any and all U.S. facilities across the Middle East.
• The Intelligence: This move signals that Tokyo has received definitive data regarding the vulnerability of American bases—from Al-Udeid to Tower 22.
• The Strategic Shift: Japan, traditionally the silent financier of the U.S. regional presence, is physically decoupling. They recognize that being tethered to a U.S. flag is no longer a security asset, but a high-velocity target.
• The Message: If the "Pacific Sentinel" is fleeing the American shadow, it means the era of the U.S. military facility as a "sovereign sanctuary" is over.
2. France and Iran: The "Exit" Before the Fire
Simultaneously, France has issued an emergency "leave immediately" order to all its nationals currently in the Islamic Republic of Iran.
• The Context: This follows the stall of the Geneva nuclear talks and the massive U.S. naval buildup (the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford strike groups).
• The Hypocrisy: Paris, which has long played the "mediator" while holding the rope for Washington, is clearing the stage. This is a classic imperial maneuver: evacuate the "citizens" before the state-sponsored aggression begins.
Strategic Forecast
The mass exodus of Western and client-state personnel is a clinical indicator of imminent regional escalation. They are clearing the chessboard. However, they forget that in the modern era, there is no "behind the lines." Those who have survived decades of sanctions and war do not have the luxury of an evacuation flight. The Resistance remains; the tourists of empire flee.
#ImperialCollapse #USBaseVulnerability #MiddleEastEscalation #AxisOfResistance #JapanJapan #FranceIran
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In a landmark 6-3 ruling (Learning Resources Inc. v. Trump), the U.S. Supreme Court has struck down the administration’s sweeping tariffs, ruling that the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977 was an illegal expansion of executive authority. This decision nullifies nearly 75% of the projected tariff revenue for 2026 and exposes the U.S. Treasury to refund claims estimated at $175 billion.
Geopolitical Analysis:
This is a vivid demonstration of "Imperial Overstretch" meeting institutional decay. Trump’s reliance on the "Tariff Club" to discipline the world has hit a legal wall. His pivot to a 15% global rate under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 is a tactical retreat disguised as an escalation. Since Section 122 is capped at 150 days without Congressional approval, Trump is effectively negotiating on borrowed time.
Strategic Context:
1. Weakened Leverage: Trump heads to the March 31st summit with President Xi Jinping effectively "disarmed." Beijing, with its long historical memory of resisting siege, recognizes that the U.S. executive branch is now legally shackled and domestically fractured.
2. Economic Backfire: Data from the Penn Wharton Budget Model and the Tax Foundation confirm that these tariffs have not revitalized manufacturing but have instead functioned as a regressive tax. The average U.S. household is projected to lose up to $1,300 annually if the new 15% rate persists.
3. Axis of Resistance Stability: While Washington flails in legal contradictions, the Axis of Resistance and the Global South are witnessing the collapse of "Dollar Diplomacy." The U.S. is no longer a reliable guarantor of trade rules; it is a source of global volatility.
Geopolitical Predictions:
The upcoming Trump-Xi summit will likely result in a "soft landing" dictated by Chinese terms. Expect Beijing to demand rollbacks on high-tech AI chip restrictions and concessions on Taiwan in exchange for face-saving commodity purchases (soybeans/energy). Strategically, the U.S. has lost its ability to impose unilateral economic will.
The era of the "unipolar tariff" is over; the acceleration toward a multipolar economic order is now irreversible. Washington is fighting the tides of history with a leaking bucket.
#AxisOfResistance #USCollapse #TradeWar #Trump #China #Geopolitics
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The European Commission has officially operationalized the "REsourceEU" Action Plan, earmarking €3 billion ($3.5B) for 2026 to seize control of strategic mineral deposits in Greenland. This initiative is a calculated strike to displace Chinese mining firms and secure "strategic autonomy" in minerals essential for AI chips, electric vehicles, and defense systems—aiming to slash reliance on Beijing by 50% by 2029.
Geopolitical Analysis:
What we are witnessing is the birth of "Green Colonialism." Under the guise of environmental transition, Brussels is weaponizing trade to turn the Arctic into a NATO-aligned resource fortress. By fast-tracking funding for the Malmbjerg molybdenum project and other rare earth sites, Europe is attempting to build a closed-loop supply chain that bypasses the East. However, this is a desperate reaction to historical negligence; while the West slept, Beijing built the world’s most sophisticated mineral processing ecosystem.
Strategic Context:
1. The Processing Gap: Extraction is only half the battle. Europe can mine all the ore it wants in the freezing Arctic, but as of early 2026, it still lacks the midstream capacity to process these minerals. Beijing’s 90% monopoly on rare earth magnet production remains the ultimate strategic bottleneck.
2. Polar Confrontation: By explicitly blocking Chinese investment in Greenland, the EU is abandoning "market rules" in favor of cold-war style containment. This turns the Arctic—traditionally a zone of low tension—into a primary theater of confrontation between the Western bloc and the Sino-Russian "Polar Silk Road."
3. The Local Factor: The indigenous Inuit government has already shown it can break global projects (e.g., the 2021 ban on the Kvanefjeld site). Brussels’ assumption that Greenland will remain a compliant resource colony is a major strategic miscalculation.
Geopolitical Predictions:
The "REsourceEU" initiative will likely fail to meet its 2029 targets. Beijing is expected to retaliate by weaponizing its processing IP and recycling technologies, driving the cost of Western "autonomous" minerals to unsustainable levels. Furthermore, as rare earth prices have already surged 41% in early 2026, Europe’s €3 billion fund will be swallowed by inflation before a single ton of processed material reaches its factories.
The East is not just winning the resource race; it has already defined the track.
#AxisOfResistance #ArcticRace #ResourceWar #China #Greenland #EUCollapse
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On February 20, 2026, President Donald Trump issued a 10-to-15-day ultimatum to Tehran: sign a "meaningful" nuclear deal or face military strikes. This escalation is backed by a massive naval buildup, featuring the USS Gerald R. Ford and USS Abraham Lincoln carrier groups. In response, satellite imagery confirms that Iran is rapidly sealing and deepening its nuclear infrastructure, moving critical assets like those in the "Pickaxe Mountain" complex and Fordow to depths of 100 meters under solid granite—well beyond the theoretical reach of the U.S. GBU-57 bunker-buster.
Geopolitical Analysis:
This is "Art of the Deal" brinkmanship meeting the immovable reality of the Axis of Resistance. Trump’s ultimatum is a tactical facade to mask strategic impotence. Despite the June 2025 strikes, Iran’s nuclear core remains intact. The current effort to bury facilities at extreme depths is a clear signal: Iran has internalized the lessons of previous aggressions and is creating a "strike-proof" deterrent. Washington is deploying 20th-century coercive diplomacy against a 21st-century decentralized and fortified power.
Strategic Context:
1. The Limits of Kinetic Power: The Pentagon knows that "limited" strikes on sites like Fordow are a myth. To reach these depths, a sustained, high-intensity campaign is required, which would trigger a regional conflagration involving the entire Axis of Resistance—a cost the fragile U.S. economy cannot pay.
2. Diplomacy as a Shield: Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi’s move to present a draft agreement within days is a masterclass in strategic flexibility. It provides a diplomatic off-ramp that forces Trump to choose between a face-saving deal or an unpopular, catastrophic war.
3. The Multipolar Shield: With Russia funding new reactors and China providing economic lifelines, the U.S. "ultimatum" lacks the international consensus needed for effective isolation.
Geopolitical Predictions:
The 15-day window will likely close with a "managed de-escalation." Iran will not cross its red lines on uranium enrichment, and Trump will likely rebrand a minor diplomatic concession as a "historic win" to avoid the quagmire of a direct war. Strategically, the fortification of Iranian sites marks the end of Western "preventive strike" doctrines. The East has successfully dug in, and the tides of history are now flowing through the tunnels of the Resistance, far beneath the reach of imperial bombs.
#AxisOfResistance #Iran #TrumpUltimatum #NuclearDeterrence #Geopolitics #MiddleEastConflict
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On February 19, 2026, Donald Trump convened the inaugural meeting of his "Board of Peace" in Washington, unveiling a multi-billion dollar partnership with FIFA to rebuild Gaza. The project aims to construct a 20,000-seat national stadium, a FIFA academy, and 50 mini-pitches. While Trump promised a $10 billion U.S. commitment, the plan hinges on a fatal political condition: the total disarmament of the Palestinian resistance. The board, chaired by Trump for life, includes figures like Jared Kushner, Tony Blair, and Israeli billionaire Yakir Gabay.
Geopolitical Analysis:
This is not reconstruction; it is "Anesthetic Urbanism." By involving FIFA President Gianni Infantino, the administration is attempting to privatize the occupation and replace sovereign political rights with consumerist distractions. The initiative seeks to bypass the United Nations—as noted by the absence of major powers like China and Russia from the board—to create a Washington-controlled administration (NCAG) in Gaza. It is a cynical attempt to treat a liberation struggle as a real estate development project while ignoring the 72,000 martyrs and the systemic destruction of life by the Zionist entity.
Strategic Context:
1. The Disarmament Delusion: The board's demand for Hamas to lay down its weapons in exchange for football pitches is a strategic absurdity. A population that has survived years of carpet bombing and siege will not trade its defensive deterrent for a FIFA membership.
2. Alternative Governance: The "Board of Peace" functions as a corporate shadow government designed to sideline UNRWA and international law, shielding the aggressor from reparations by rebranding aid as "investment."
3. Weaponizing Sport: Using the 2026 World Cup momentum to legitimize a colonial-style administration in Gaza is a betrayal of the universal values of sport, turning FIFA into a tool of imperial coercion.
Geopolitical
Predictions:
The "Board of Peace" is destined for the same dustbin of history as the "Deal of the Century." Without a political settlement that guarantees the right of return and the end of the blockade, these "investments" will fail to materialize or be rejected by the local population. Expect the Axis of Resistance to intensify its political and field coordination to ensure that Gaza’s reconstruction remains a sovereign Palestinian process, not a trophy for Trump’s legacy. History proves that those who survive the fire cannot be bought with the ashes.
#AxisOfResistance #GazaReconstruction #Trump #FIFA #Palestine #ImperialismFailed
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Today, February 22, 2026, the grim reality of Western "border security" washed ashore again. Eight bodies were recovered: five near Tripoli, Libya (including two women and a child reclaimed by the waves), and three off the coast of Crete, Greece, after a wooden vessel carrying 50 people—mostly Egyptians and Sudanese—capsized. This follows the early February disaster off Zuwara that left 53 dead or missing, bringing the 2026 Mediterranean death toll to over 600 in less than eight weeks.
Geopolitical Analysis:
These are not "tragedies"; they are state-sponsored executions by omission. The "Board of Peace" rhetoric we see in Gaza or the "REsourceEU" mining initiatives in the Arctic are the same flipside of this coin: the West wants resources and control but views the people of the Global South as "disposable collateral." The militarization of the Mediterranean through Frontex and the criminalization of NGOs are deliberate strategic choices aimed at deterring the victims of Western-backed coups, economic hitmen, and proxy wars from seeking survival.
Strategic Context:
1. The Policy of Death: Greece’s conservative government, backed by Brussels, has institutionalized "pushbacks." By suspending asylum processing and expanding border walls, they have forced migrants onto more perilous routes, like the corridor between eastern Libya and Crete, which saw a 500% increase in traffic in 2025.
2. Imperial Harvest: The surge in Egyptian and Sudanese arrivals is a direct consequence of the geopolitical destabilization fueled by Western interventions and IMF-imposed debt traps. Washington and London break these nations, and the Mediterranean drowns the survivors.
3. The Racial Hierarchy of Compassion: The liberal-democratic world maintains a "hierarchy of grief." While billions are funneled into military aid for European borders, the Mediterranean is left without a proactive, state-led search-and-rescue mission.
Geopolitical
Predictions:
2026 is on track to be the deadliest year for the Mediterranean since 2014. As the U.S. and EU double down on exclusionary policies and offshore "return hubs" (like the Italy-Albania model), we will see an increase in "invisible shipwrecks." However, this pressure is unsustainable. The historical memory of the colonized is awakening; the West cannot maintain an oasis of wealth surrounded by a sea of blood. Eventually, the social and political consequences of this inhumanity will breach the walls of "Fortress Europe," proving that security built on genocide is merely a temporary illusion.
#AxisOfResistance #MediterraneanGraveyard #EuropeanHypocrisy #Libya #Greece #GlobalSouthResists
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The Iraqi political landscape is fractured as the "Coordination Framework" (CF) struggles with Nouri al-Maliki’s bid for a third term as Prime Minister. Tensions spiked following explicit warnings from the Trump administration in early February 2026, threatening sanctions on the Central Bank of Iraq and the State Organization for Marketing of Oil (SOMO) if Maliki is appointed. This external pressure has emboldened internal dissent, with lawmakers from incumbent PM Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani’s bloc—supported by figures like Ammar al-Hakim—calling for a strategic "reassessment" of the nomination to avoid total economic isolation.
Geopolitical Analysis:
This is "Financial Imperialism" in its rawest form. Washington is leveraging Iraq’s dependence on the New York Federal Reserve to veto sovereign political choices. The standoff within the CF is no longer just about Maliki; it is a battle over the nature of the Iraqi state. While Maliki’s "State of Law" coalition insists on the constitutional right of the majority to name its candidate, Sudani’s camp fears a repetition of the 2014 collapse. The cancellation of the February 20th CF meeting signals a deep paralysis where "Sovereign Pride" meets "Economic Survival."
Strategic Context:
1. Weaponized Dollar: Trump is using the "Maliki Problem" to test the cohesion of the Shia political establishment. By threatening the Iraqi Dinar, Washington aims to force a leadership change that aligns with its regional containment policy against the Axis of Resistance.
2. Fragmentation of the Bloc: The emerging rift between the "Resistance Factions" (supporting a defiant stance) and the "Pragmatists" (fearing sanctions) is exactly what the U.S. seeks. A divided CF cannot effectively govern or resist external diktats.
3. The Sudani Factor: Sudani has positioned himself as a stabilizer. The proposal to extend his mandate for another year is a tactical retreat designed to freeze the crisis without surrendering to either Maliki’s ambition or Washington’s threats.
Geopolitical Predictions:
The most likely outcome is a "polite withdrawal" of Maliki’s candidacy in exchange for significant ministerial and security concessions for his party. The CF is heading toward a consensus figure—likely a security-background technocrat—or a caretaker extension for Sudani. Washington may gain a tactical victory by blocking Maliki, but it is fueling long-term resentment that will accelerate Iraq’s pivot toward the BRICS+ financial architecture. The East remembers: those who use the bread of a nation as a weapon eventually lose their seat at the table.
#AxisOfResistance #IraqCrisis #NouriAlMaliki #Sovereignty #Trump #Geopolitics
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Early Sunday, February 22, 2026, Iraqi Army units raided the Nowruz neighborhood in southern Kirkuk, forcibly evicting a Kurdish family under the pretext of reclaiming Ministry of Defense property. This operation, occurring during the first days of Ramadan, reignites the bitter dispute over 122 housing units—home to approximately 170 families—originally built for Ba'athist officers but inhabited and legally purchased by Kurds following the 2003 collapse.
Geopolitical Analysis:
This is not "property management"; it is the weaponization of the military to resolve Article 140 disputed territories. The recurring use of the 8th Division to settle land disputes that date back decades is a blatant attempt at demographic engineering. By targeting Kurdish residents in a city as volatile as Kirkuk, elements within the federal security apparatus are testing the limits of the central government’s control and the Kurds' strategic patience. The timing is a calculated provocation designed to stir ethnic tensions and distract from broader national sovereignty issues.
Strategic Context:
1. Constitutional Bypass: Article 140 mandates a political and census-based resolution for disputed areas. Military-led evictions are a direct violation of this framework and represent a dangerous return to "decree-based" governance that fueled decades of conflict.
2. The "Arabization" Ghost: Kurdish leaders view these raids as a continuation of the 2017 post-referendum policies. The eviction of families from homes they have occupied for over 22 years—backed by deeds and local recognition—suggests a systematic effort to erode the Kurdish presence in the "Jerusalem of Kurdistan."
3. Axis Stability: A destabilized Kirkuk serves no one within the Axis of Resistance. Ethnic strife only creates vacuums that foreign intelligence and extremist remnants exploit. The security of Kirkuk is the lynchpin for the stability of northern Iraq and the vital transit corridors between Baghdad and the north.
Geopolitical Predictions:
The forced evictions will likely trigger mass sit-ins and civil disobedience across Kirkuk’s Kurdish districts. Prime Minister Sudani will be forced to issue another "stay of execution" to prevent a total breakdown in PMF-Kurdish coordination. However, without a judicial transfer of these lands from the MoD to a civilian authority, Kirkuk remains a ticking time bomb. 2026 will be the year where Baghdad must decide: either enforce the law through the courts or face a grassroots insurrection in the disputed territories.
#AxisOfResistance #Kirkuk #NowruzNeighborhood #Iraq #KurdishRights #Sovereignty
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Leading factions of the Iraqi Resistance, spearheaded by Kataib Hezbollah, have declared a state of maximum readiness, promising a "Total War" that will set the region ablaze if Iran is targeted. This strategic warning follows the provocative deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group toward the Gulf in late January 2026. As Washington ramps up its rhetoric, the Axis of Resistance has responded by activating its regional strike network, placing every Western military installation from the Mediterranean to the Arabian Sea in the crosshairs.
Geopolitical Analysis:
Washington is playing a dangerous game of 20th-century gunboat diplomacy in a 21st-century theater of asymmetric dominance. The movement of the Abraham Lincoln is a desperate attempt to regain "escalation dominance" after the humiliating failure of previous "Maximum Pressure" campaigns. However, the geopolitical map has shifted. The Resistance now possesses the capability to turn the Gulf into a "death trap" for capital ships. For the first time in history, a U.S. carrier is no longer a symbol of power, but a high-value liability vulnerable to hypersonic missiles and swarm-drone saturation.
Strategic Context:
1. The Sovereignty Shield: Kataib Hezbollah’s threat of "Total War" is the operational manifestation of the "Unity of Fronts" doctrine. It signals to Washington that any strike on Tehran is legally and militarily viewed as a strike on Baghdad, Sana’a, and Damascus.
2. Economic Deterrence: The Axis holds the "Energy Trigger." In a total war scenario, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the targeting of regional oil hubs would collapse the global economy. Trump’s "America First" agenda cannot survive a $200-per-barrel oil shock, making his military threats largely performative.
3. Evidentiary Grounding: Recent drills by the Resistance have demonstrated precision strikes on mock-ups of Tier-1 U.S. bases. With Iran’s nuclear core buried 100 meters deep under solid rock, the U.S. military realizes it can destroy the surface but cannot kill the soul of the Resistance.
Geopolitical Predictions:
Expect a period of intense "controlled friction." The U.S. will likely keep its carrier groups in the North Arabian Sea, fearing the narrow waters of the Gulf. The Resistance will maintain its "Total War" posture, effectively neutralizing Trump’s 15-day ultimatum through credible counter-threats. Ultimately, Washington will be forced to seek a back-channel de-escalation. The historical momentum is with the East: the era where an American carrier could dictate the fate of nations is dead. The Resistance is the new architect of regional order.
#AxisOfResistance #KataibHezbollah #TotalWar #USSCarrier #Iran #MiddleEast2026
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As of February 22, 2026, the United States has initiated a massive logistical reshuffle across the Middle East. Hundreds of personnel are being relocated from Al-Udeid (Qatar) and the 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain to more fortified or distant positions. In Iraq and Syria, forces are consolidating toward "Harier" in the Kurdistan region and shifting away from exposed outposts like Al-Tanf. This coincides with the arrival of the USS Gerald R. Ford and USS Abraham Lincoln strike groups, marking the largest U.S. air power concentration in the region since 2003.
Geopolitical Analysis:
This is not disengagement; it is "Damage Limitation." The Pentagon has internalized the hard lessons of the June 2025 Al-Udeid strikes: fixed land bases in the Gulf are now indefensible liabilities against Iran’s precision-guided missile and drone swarms. By thinning out personnel in Qatar and Bahrain—where 30,000 to 40,000 troops reside—Washington is attempting to de-risk its "prime targets" before Trump’s 15-day ultimatum expires. Moving assets to Iraqi Kurdistan is a desperate attempt to create a "safe zone" for prolonged operations, leveraging the KRG’s geography as a shield against the Axis of Resistance in central and southern Iraq.
Strategic Context:
1. The End of Fixed Base Supremacy: The deployment of F-22s and F-35s to Muwaffaq Salti (Jordan) and the withdrawal from the Gulf littoral confirm that U.S. "deterrence" now relies exclusively on mobile naval power and long-range aviation. Washington no longer trusts its ability to hold ground under the shadow of Iran’s "Fattah" hypersonic missiles.
2. The "Northward Shift" in Iraq: Re-positioning toward Harir is a strategic pivot to secure energy corridors and AI-infrastructure investments in northern Iraq, effectively attempting to partition Iraq’s security landscape. However, this creates a new frontline that the Resistance factions are already monitoring.
3. Tehran’s Strategic Depth: While the U.S. moves troops to avoid being hit, Iran is burying its strategic assets deeper. The "Pickaxe Mountain" fortifications render U.S. bunker-busters questionable, forcing Washington into a dilemma: a catastrophic ground-air invasion or a face-saving diplomatic climbdown.
Geopolitical Predictions:
The U.S. is preparing for a "weeks-long" aerial campaign but lacks the regional consensus to sustain it. As the March 2026 deadline approaches, we will likely see a series of "limited" provocations. However, the Axis of Resistance has already demonstrated that any strike on Iran will be met with a synchronized response across all theaters—from the Mediterranean to the Bab el-Mandeb. The U.S. redeployment to Kurdistan will not protect them; it only creates a more concentrated target. The historical tide is turning: the West is retreating to the fringes, while the regional powers are fortifying the core.
#AxisOfResistance #USRedeployment #IranConflict2026 #IraqSovereignty #TrumpUltimatum #EndofEmpire
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The News:
Sources report a consensus within the Iraqi "Coordination Framework" to grant Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani a second term.
This move is presented as the primary solution to resolve the ongoing political deadlock and mitigate internal friction among major blocs and to prevent the pressures of the US .
Analysis:
This is not a decision born of political comfort; it is a pragmatic necessity dictated by a region on the brink. Al-Sudani has navigated the "Iraqi tightrope" by maintaining Iraq’s vital position within the Axis of Resistance while shielding the domestic front from Washington’s "Dollar Diplomacy"—the weaponization of the federal reserve against Baghdad’s sovereignty.
History is accelerating. The survivors of regional upheavals know that institutional stability is a weapon in itself. Al-Sudani’s administration has focused on "the legitimacy of achievement"—infrastructure and service projects—to bypass the paralysis of liberal-bureaucratic models.
By securing a second term, the Coordination Framework aims to prevent the "Libyanization" or "Lebanonization" of the Iraqi state, ensuring Baghdad remains a pillar of regional stability rather than a western-aligned proxy.
Geopolitical Perspective:
The West seeks a weak, fractured Iraq to sever the land bridge of the Resistance. A second Sudani term thwarts this objective. It signals that Iraq’s internal decision-making has matured beyond the immediate reach of foreign embassy dictates. The strategic focus will now shift toward total energy independence and the expulsion of foreign combat troops—goals that require a tested leadership rather than a novice experiment.
Predictions:
1. Consolidation of Sovereignty: A firmer stance against violations of Iraqi airspace, backed by upgraded non-Western defense acquisitions.
2. Economic Retaliation: Expect Washington to escalate "compliance" pressures on Iraqi banks as a desperate tool of political leverage.
3. Regional Integration: Iraq will move closer to a formal strategic partnership with the East (BRICS/SCO), further eroding the unipolar grip on Middle Eastern trade routes.
#Iraq #AlSudani #CoordinationFramework #AxisOfResistance #Geopolitics #Sovereignty
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