🔴Diplomacy in the Shadow of the Abyss: The Strategic Paradox


The diplomatic theater in Geneva, characterized by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi as a "new window of opportunity," is not a sign of Iranian fatigue, but a calculated maneuver in a landscape where the U.S. remains trapped by its own "maximum pressure" delusions. While the West clings to the "guiding principles" established with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, the reality of power is dictated by the strategic depth of the Resistance.

The "opportunity" mentioned in Switzerland is balanced by the iron-clad warning from Imam Khamenei: American warships, including the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Gerald R. Ford currently looming in the region, are not assets of deterrence—they are targets of opportunity. History reminds us that the "strongest army" is often the one most vulnerable to the "slap" of a sovereign nation defending its existence.

On the Palestinian front, the Zionist entity continues its systematic theft, seizing 2,000 dunams of land in Sebastia and Burqa (Nablus) as Ramadan begins. This is not "tension"—it is a desperate attempt to create "state land" facts on the ground while the world is distracted by nuclear technicalities. The Resistance knows: you do not negotiate for land with those whose only language is expropriation.

• The Nuclear Maneuver: Araghchi's "window" is predicated on the removal of sanctions and the recognition of Iran's 60% enrichment as a sovereign right, not a concession.

• The Naval Reality: The Strait of Hormuz remains a chokehold. Trump’s threats of "consequences" are met with the reality of anti-ship ballistic missiles capable of sending the "world's largest carrier" to the seafloor.

• The Land Grab: 2,000 dunams of Palestinian history in Sebastia are being swallowed by the occupation’s "legal" machinery.


#AxisOfResistance #GenevaTalks #Iran #Palestine #StrategicDepth #EndTheOccupation


☑️ Our website

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴The Fall of the Proxy: Bangladesh’s Sovereign Pivot

The swearing-in of Tarique Rahman as Prime Minister of Bangladesh is not merely a change in government; it is the definitive burial of a decades-long Indian hegemony over Dhaka. Following a landslide victory where the
Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its allies secured 212 seats in the 350-member Parliament, the era of Sheikh Hasina—the West’s favorite "secular" autocrat—has collapsed.
The Western-liberal establishment and New Delhi are now scrambling to "reset" relations. Their panic is rooted in history: the BNP has consistently prioritized a "balanced" foreign policy, shifting away from the submissive pro-India stance of the Awami League toward a robust partnership with China.

For the Axis of Resistance and the Global South, this represents a crucial fracture in the "Indo-Pacific" encirclement strategy.

New Delhi’s quick congratulations from Narendra Modi and the presence of Om Birla at the ceremony are desperate attempts to maintain relevance in a country that has not forgotten India’s role in harboring the ousted Hasina—now a fugitive sentenced to death in absentia for crimes against humanity.

History is accelerating; the people of the 170-million-strong nation have chosen to look East, toward sovereign development and away from neighborly tutelage.

• The Mandate: BNP and allies won a crushing majority (212 seats), while the Jamaat-e-Islami led opposition took 77 seats.

• The Shift: China, already Bangladesh’s largest trading partner with $18 billion in bilateral trade, is poised to deepen infrastructure and defense ties.

• The Red Line: The new government's refusal to be a "submissive" satellite marks a strategic defeat for the "Neighbourhood First" policy of New Delhi.


#Bangladesh #TariqueRahman #Geopolitics #SouthAsia #Sovereignty #EndOfHegemony


☑️ Our website

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴The European Fracture: Strategic Anxiety and the End of the "Atlantic" Era


The 62nd Munich Security Conference (MSC 2026) has concluded not with a show of unity, but with a frantic search for an exit strategy. As the "Rules-Based Order" continues its terminal decline, European capitals are finally waking up to the reality that the American security umbrella is now a liability.

The uncertainty in Munich is driven by a stark strategic shift in Washington. The new U.S. National Defense Strategy (NDS 2026) has effectively ended the era of "automatic American primacy," demanding that Europe handle its own "containment" of Russia while the U.S. pivots its remaining resources to the "First Island Chain" against China. This is not a partnership; it is a strategic abandonment of the junior partner.

In the digital realm, the farce of "Sovereign Cloud" infrastructure exposes Europe's total technological submission. While the EU aims to triple data center capacity through the Cloud and AI Development Act, they are ironically welcoming the "AWS European Sovereign Cloud"—a €7.8 billion Trojan horse that keeps European data under the ultimate legal reach of the U.S. CLOUD Act.

True sovereignty cannot be rented from the very hegemon you claim to be escaping.

Meanwhile, the potential early exit of ECB President Christine Lagarde—whose term was slated until 2027—signals a deeper rot in the Eurozone’s financial architecture. With four out of six executive board seats up for grabs by 2026-2027, the "horse-trading" for her successor (names like Olli Rehn or Mário Centeno) reveals a desperate attempt to find a technocrat capable of managing a debt-laden Union that can no longer afford both its welfare state and the €392 billion defense budget projected for 2025.

• The Military Illusion: NATO members (minus Spain) have pledged 3.5% of GDP to defense by 2035—a bill of €288 billion extra per year that the European street is not prepared to pay.

• Digital Submission: American hyperscalers still control 85% of the European cloud market. "Independence" is currently a marketing slogan for AWS and Microsoft.

• The Leadership Vacuum: Lagarde’s rumored departure, following François Villeroy de Galhau’s resignation from the Banque de France, marks a decapitation of the pro-Atlanticist financial guard.


#MunichSecurityConference #MSC2026 #SovereignCloud #ECB #Geopolitics #EndOfAtlanticism


☑️ Our website

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴Chokepoint Sovereignty: The End of the "Open Sea" Illusion


The images from Hormuz Island are not just a military display; they are a geopolitical statement written in the language of power. As the IRGC Navy conducts its "Smart Control of the Strait of Hormuz" exercise, the sight of dozens of oil tankers and commercial vessels anchored and awaiting permission is a reminder: the 21-nautical-mile-wide artery of the world’s energy—carrying 20% of global oil and 30% of LNG—is under sovereign management. 


While Western media dismisses these maneuvers as "disruptions," the reality is a calibrated exercise in Maritime Dominance. The IRGC’s use of high-speed missile boats, Shahid Soleimani-class corvettes, and reconnaissance drones in signal-jamming environments proves that the era of uncontested US Carrier Strike Group (CSG) presence is over. The USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford may loiter in the region, but they do so as vulnerable steel islands in a sea of asymmetric threats. 

Simultaneously, the commencement of the "Maritime Security Belt 2026" joint exercise with Russia and China (and participation from the 48th Chinese Flotilla including the Tangshan destroyer) signals the birth of a multipolar maritime order. This is the eighth iteration of a trilateral alliance that refuses to accept the "Rules-Based Order" as a substitute for international law. By securing the Sea of Oman and the Northern Indian Ocean, the Axis of Resistance and its global partners are providing the only genuine "security" that exists: one that does not require a Washington stamp of approval. 

• The Reality: 80 tankers cross the Strait daily. The IRGC has demonstrated it can pause this flow at will, hitting mobile targets with precision from "impregnable" island fortresses. 

• The Alliance: Russia and China are not "observers"; they are active participants in building a strategic maritime dimension for BRICS, as confirmed by Russian aide Nikolai Patrushev. 

• The Message: Diplomacy in Geneva is backed by the iron reality of the Sea of Oman. Resistance is not a slogan; it is a calculated control of the world’s most vital geostrategy.


#HormuzStrait #IRGC #MaritimeSecurity #IranRussiaChina #MultipolarWorld #AxisOfResistance


☑️ Our website

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴The Armada of Aggression: Washington’s Desperate Gamble


The Biden-Trump transition has not brought stability, but a reckless acceleration of military brinkmanship. In the last 24 hours, the Pentagon has surged over 50 fighter jets, including the F-35 Lightning II, F-22 Raptor, and F-16 squadrons, toward the Middle East. This mass mobilization—monitored by open-source trackers as it transited via RAF Lakenheath and the Azores—is the final piece of a strike package designed for a sustained air campaign against the Islamic Republic.


The USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest nuclear-powered supercarrier, has officially crossed the Strait of Gibraltar to join the USS Abraham Lincoln strike group. This rare dual-carrier presence is not "deterrence"; it is an echo of the 2003 buildup, a physical threat intended to coerce Tehran into surrendering its sovereign nuclear rights. While US envoy Steve Witkoff speaks of "meaningful progress" in Geneva, the B-52 and B-2 strategic bomber flights along Atlantic and Pacific routes tell a different story: Washington is preparing for "Operation Midnight Hammer" 2.0.


The Axis of Resistance is not intimidated by steel and shadows. As the U.S. amasses its armada, the Iranian and Russian navies are launching joint maneuvers in the Sea of Oman and the northern Indian Ocean. This trilateral alignment—which includes participation from the 48th Chinese Flotilla—is the real guarantor of maritime security against unilateralism. History has shown that those who rely on high-altitude aggression eventually find no ground to land on.


• The Air Surge: Over 50 aircraft, including 36 F-16s from Aviano and Spangdahlem, moved to bases like Muwaffaq Salti in Jordan within a single day.


• The Naval Reality: The USS Gerald R. Ford is expected to be within strike range by February 20, joining a fleet already shadowing the Strait of Hormuz.


• The Sovereign Response: Rear Admiral Hassan Maqsoudloo confirmed the Iran-Russia drill involves the Alvand destroyer and Shahid Sayyad Shirazi corvette to counter "maritime terrorism".


#StrategicAggression #USNavy #Iran #Russia #AxisOfResistance #Hormuz #MultipolarWorld


☑️ Our website

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴The Clock of Aggression: Diplomatic Theater vs. the Reality of Fire


The "maximum alert" declared across the Zionist entity is not a drill; it is the frantic breathing of a colonial outpost preparing for the blow it knows is coming. While the White House plays a dual game of "wise" diplomatic overtures and military threats, the directives given to the IDF Home Front Command and Magen David Adom to enter full wartime readiness signal that the decision-makers in Tel Aviv are no longer betting on words.
Donald Trump has stripped away the veneer of "strategic ambiguity." By explicitly naming Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford as launchpads for strikes against the Islamic Republic, he has not only exposed the mechanics of the planned aggression but has formally shackled Keir Starmer’s Britain to a potential regional conflagration. This is a deliberate attempt to force a "deal" through a gun to the head of a sovereign nation—a tactic that has historically failed against the strategic patience of the Resistance.

Prediction: We are witnessing more than "Trumpian games." While Trump uses the threat of total war as a leverage tool for a lopsided deal, the Zionist entity—sensing its own existential fragility—is pushing for an American-led strike to reset the regional balance. The mobilization of rescue services and the Home Front Command suggests they expect a devastating response. This is a pre-emptive psychological operation that could rapidly slide into a hot conflict if the U.S. miscalculates the depth of the Resistance's integrated defense.

• The Mobilization: Magen David Adom and emergency services are on "highest defense alert," shifting resources to bunkers and fortified centers.

• The Launchpads: Trump identified the Indian Ocean base of Diego Garcia (capable of hosting B-52s) and RAF Fairford in the UK as the primary nodes for a long-range bombardment.

• The Threat: The White House warning that Iran must be "very wise" is a desperate ultimatum issued as U.S. naval assets converge on the region.


#AxisOfResistance #Trump #Iran #Palestine #DiegoGarcia #IDF #Geopolitics

☑️ Our website

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴 The Absurd US "Board of Peace": A Geopolitical Trap for the Multipolar World
(Strategic Analysis: Dismantling the American "Death Orgy")


Washington continues its cynical tradition of igniting global fires only to invite its victims to extinguish them under American terms. The so-called "Board of Peace" (BoP), established by Trump, is nothing more than a parallel imperial structure designed to bypass the United Nations and replace international law with a "private club" where permanent seats are sold for $1 billion.


The Strategic Context:
History is accelerating. The U.S. is losing the war of attrition in Ukraine, failing to contain China’s technological rise, and remains unable to break the Axis of Resistance in West Asia. The BoP is a desperate attempt to divide partners and subjugate allies under the guise of "stability."


Data and Facts:


• The Pay-to-Play Scheme: Membership requires a $1 billion cash contribution—a blatant political "protection fee" to fund the U.S. agenda.


• The Russian Counter-Move: Putin has masterfully offered to pay the $1 billion using frozen Russian assets in the U.S., stipulating the funds go directly to Palestinian aid and Gaza reconstruction. This forces Washington to either unfreeze the assets or admit its "peace" initiative is a fraud.


• The Sovereign Refusal: While regimes like Israel, Morocco, and Argentina have rushed to join, major powers including Russia and France have refused, exposing the BoP as a fractured tool of hegemony rather than a global consensus.


The Verdict:
Participation in this "Board" is not a diplomatic maneuver; it is a surrender to a trap designed to liquidate the Palestinian cause and cement U.S. unipolarity. As geopolitical analysts, we recognize that those who have survived decades of Western aggression know better than to trust the architects of global destruction. The multipolar world will not be built on the ruins of international law.


#AlMuraqeb #AxisOfResistance #BoardOfPeace #Geopolitics #Trump #Putin #Gaza #MultipolarWorld

☑️ Our website

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴The "Board of Peace" – A Multi-Billion Dollar Trap


The Board of Peace: Reconstruction as a Weapon of Disarmament



The News:

In Washington, Donald Trump chaired the inaugural meeting of the "Board of Peace," a body including representatives from 45 nations. The summit announced a $5 billion pledge for Gaza’s reconstruction. However, the fine print remains unchanged: the funds are contingent on the disarmament of the Resistance (Hamas) and the installation of a "clear partner"—code for a puppet administration.


The Analysis:

Washington is attempting to buy with dollars what it failed to seize with JDAMs. The $5 billion figure is a pittance compared to the estimated $70 billion in damages caused by the Zionist machine. By conditioning reconstruction on disarmament, the "Board of Peace" (chaired by Trump and managed by figures like Jared Kushner and Tony Blair) seeks to turn Gaza into a demilitarized open-air colony. History reminds us that those who survived the "Century of Humiliation" did not do so by surrendering their rifles for American concrete. The Resistance is not a "partner" to be vetted; it is the ground reality that $5 billion cannot erase.


Conclusion:

Gaza will be rebuilt by the hands of its people and the support of its true allies, not through a "Board" that prioritizes Zionist security over Palestinian sovereignty.


#Gaza #BoardOfPeace #AxisOfResistance #Trump #Palestine

☑️ Our website

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴U.S. Mobilization – The Illusion of Deterrence


Steel in the Arabian Sea: Washington’s Weekend Gamble


The News:

The U.S. has intensified its military buildup in the Arabian Sea , positioning the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Gerald R. Ford alongside Patriot and THAAD missile defense systems. Intelligence reports suggest Washington is weighing a "weekend strike" against the Islamic Republic of Iran.


The Analysis:

The arrival of THAAD and Patriot batteries is not a sign of strength, but a confession of vulnerability. These systems are being deployed to protect U.S. bases (like Al-Udeid) that have already proven to be within the reach of Iranian precision. Trump’s "maximum pressure" 2.0 is meeting a region that has accelerated past the era of American hegemony. Those who survived the "War of the Cities" and decades of sanctions are not intimidated by carrier strike groups. A strike on Iran would not be a "surgical operation"—it would be the spark that incinerates the global energy market and every U.S. outpost in the West Asian theater.


Conclusion:

The "weekend strike" rhetoric is a desperate psychological tactic. The Pentagon knows that any kinetic action against Tehran will end the American presence in the region permanently.


#Iran #USA #ArabianSea #Geopolitics #ResistanceAxis

☑️ Our website

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴The Strait of Hormuz – Sovereignty in Action


The Chokepoint: Tehran and Moscow Redefine Maritime Security


The News:

Iran has temporarily closed strategic sections of the Strait of Hormuz for naval maneuvers. Simultaneously, the Iranian Navy is conducting joint drills with the Russian Baltic Fleet (including the corvette Stoiky) to "ensure the safety of navigation" and counter maritime terrorism.


The Analysis:

The closure of the world’s most vital oil artery, even "temporarily," is a strategic message written in the language of power. While the U.S. struggles to form "coalitions" of the unwilling, the alliance between Tehran and Moscow is manifesting in the "Marine Security Belt 2026." This is not just a drill; it is the establishment of a new security architecture that excludes Western interference. The Strait of Hormuz is not an international lake; it is under the "complete command" of the IRGC. Russia’s presence confirms that the days of the U.S. Navy acting as the sole policeman of the seas are over.


The axis of power is shifting. The security of the Persian Gulf will be maintained by the regional powers and their strategic partners, not by invaders from across the Atlantic.


#StraitOfHormuz #Iran #Russia #MaritimeSecurity #GlobalPower

☑️ Our website

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴Syria – The End of an Illegal Occupation , OR NOT !


The Flight from the Levant: America Abandons its Decade-Long Failure



The News: Reports indicate the U.S. is preparing to withdraw all 1,000 troops from Syria within the next two months. Strategic outposts, including Al-Tanf and Al-Shaddadi, have already been evacuated or handed over to the new Syrian state authorities ( the government of the Joulani , previously one of the leaders of ISIS ) .


The Analysis:

A decade of "managed chaos" and resource theft is ending in a quiet retreat. The U.S. claim that its presence is "no longer required" due to the so-called new Syrian state’s capacity to fight ISIS is a face-saving exit strategy. The reality is that the illegal occupation of Syrian soil became a strategic liability. The Resistance (the previous government Syrian Arab Army and its allies) has survived the greatest proxy war of the 21st century. The integration of the SDF into the national army confirms the failure of Washington's attempt to partition the country. To some it is a victory for the territorial integrity of Syria and a crushing defeat for the "New Middle East" project. However , we need to be realistic , especially that the South of Syria is occupied by the Israelis .


Conclusion:

The withdrawal from Syria is not a testament to the resilience of the new Syrian state especially with presence and occupation of Israel the South of Syria !


#Syria #USWithdrawal #Sovereignty #Victory #Resistance



☑️ Our website

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

The Military Consequences of NATO’s Exit from Iraq


Strategic Vacuum or Sovereign Victory? The Military Rebirth of Iraq


The News:

As the United States initiates the "September 2026 Timeline" for a full military withdrawal from Iraq, NATO is simultaneously winding down its training mission (NMI). Strategic assets, including heavy reconnaissance and air-support infrastructure, are being dismantled as the Iraqi Armed Forces (IAF) prepare to assume full "military sovereignty" over federal territory.


The Analysis:

The exit of 2,500 U.S. troops and several hundred NATO advisers is the collapse of the "security scaffolding" that has inhibited Iraqi independence for two decades. From a geopolitical perspective, this withdrawal is a recognition that the "Integrated Security" model—a Western attempt to subordinate Iraqi military doctrine to Atlanticist interests—has failed. The primary beneficiary of this vacuum is the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), which secured 101 out of 285 provincial council seats in recent elections and now maintains a "hybrid" status: formal state funding combined with ideological independence. With NATO gone, the Iraqi military will likely shift its doctrine away from Western counter-insurgency toward a more robust, regional defense posture aligned with the Axis of Resistance. The withdrawal from the Al-Asad and Erbil hubs removes the primary launchpads for U.S. "deterrence" operations against regional actors, effectively ending the era where Washington could use Iraqi soil as a forward operating base against Tehran.


Conclusion:

The end of the NATO mission is the end of the "Managed State" in West Asia. While Western analysts warn of an "ISIS resurgence," the reality is the consolidation of a regional security bloc that no longer requires an American permission slip to defend its borders.


#IraqWithdrawal #NATO #PMF #RegionalSecurity #Sovereignty #ResistanceAxis

☑️ Our website

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴Germany’s Pivot – The Merz Doctrine of Survival


The Merz Defiance: Berlin Chooses Beijing over Washington’s Tariffs


The News:

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has issued a blistering warning to Washington, rejecting the U.S.-led tariff war. Despite his historical pro-Atlanticist stance, Merz stated that Europe is prepared to "push back" against American protectionism. Simultaneously, he hailed a new era of cooperation with China following high-level meetings in Munich, emphasizing free trade and rejecting the "de-risking" rhetoric of the past.



The Analysis:

Reality has finally hit Berlin. Friedrich Merz, a man of the corporate elite, understands that Germany’s industrial heart cannot survive an American trade war and a loss of Chinese markets simultaneously. By defying Trump’s tariff threats, Germany is prioritizing its $270 billion trade relationship with China over a crumbling "Transatlantic solidarity" that offers nothing but de-industrialization. Merz is not becoming a "revolutionary"; he is becoming a realist. He knows that the "rules-based order" is being rewritten in Beijing and Moscow, not Washington. Germany's pivot is a signal to the world: even the most loyal vassals are now forced to choose between American loyalty and national survival.


Conclusion:

When the "stabilizing anchor" of Europe looks East, the West as a coherent political bloc ceases to exist.


#Germany #China #FriedrichMerz #TradeWar #Geopolitics #MultipolarWorld


☑️ Our website

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴Peru – The Revolving Door of Neoliberal Collapse


The Ninth President: Peru’s Permanent Crisis of Governance


The News: Peru’s Congress has appointed José María Balcázar, an 83-year-old leftist legislator and former judge, as the country’s new interim president. He is the eighth leader to hold the office in a decade—and the ninth since 2016. Balcázar replaces José Jerí, who was ousted by the legislature after just four months over allegations of corruption involving undisclosed meetings with Chinese state contractors. 



The Analysis: Peru has become a laboratory for the failure of a political system designed to prioritize elite maneuvering over popular will. The removal of Jerí and the elevation of Balcázar (from the Perú Libre party) is not a triumph of "rule of law" but a symptom of a cannibalistic legislature. The use of "permanent moral incapacity" as a political guillotine has rendered the executive branch a mere administrative caretaker. While the "Board of Peace" in Washington talks about stability, the Andean reality is one of total institutional disintegration. Balcázar, a man who knows the judiciary's rot from the inside, inherits a nation plagued by a 30% poverty rate and an extortion crisis that the state has neither the will nor the capacity to solve. This "interim" mandate is a desperate attempt to reach the April 12 elections without the complete collapse of the state apparatus. 


Conclusion: Changing the name on the door does not change the nature of the crisis. Peru is a warning of what happens when the political class becomes a closed circuit of corruption, detached from the historical needs of the people.


#Peru #PoliticalCrisis #JoséMaríaBalcázar #LatinAmerica #Neoliberalism #StateFailure


☑️ Our website

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴The Ukraine Freeze – Fuel, Failure, and Geneva



Darkness in Kiev: Hungary’s Embargo and the Geneva Impasse


The News:

Hungary has suspended all diesel shipments to Ukraine, citing the disruption of Russian oil flows via the Druzhba pipeline—a move Budapest calls a response to "political blackmail" by Kiev. This comes as the third round of U.S.-mediated peace talks in Geneva ended in total failure, with Russia demanding the surrender of the remaining 20% of Donetsk and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.



The Analysis:

The "Ukrainian project" is suffocating. By cutting diesel, Viktor Orbán has exposed the structural fragility of a state that depends on its neighbors for survival while simultaneously sabotaging their energy security. Meanwhile, the failure in Geneva proves that the "Trump Peace" cannot be achieved through liberal diplomacy. Russia is negotiating from a position of total military dominance, while Kiev clings to the remnants of a Western support system that is running dry. The refusal to compromise on the ground reality of the "New Territories" means the war will continue until the total exhaustion of the Ukrainian military apparatus.


Conclusion:

Peace is not found in Geneva hotels, but in the recognition of a new territorial reality. Ukraine is being sacrificed by a West that can no longer provide the fuel or the blood to sustain it.



#Ukraine #Hungary #Russia #GenevaTalks #EnergyCrisis #ResistanceAxis


☑️ Our website

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴BREAKING:

🇮🇷🇺🇸🇸🇦 Chinese satellites revealed that Saudi Arabia would participate in the war with Iran after all

Chinese satellites have revealed the location of 13 US Air Force tanker aircraft stationed in Saudi Arabia

Boeing E-3G AWACS and 5 Lockheed C-130 Hercules are also present there.


This development represents a tectonic shift in the regional security architecture, signaling that the era of "neutrality" for Gulf states may be ending under the weight of Washington’s "Maximum Pressure 2.0."

For Iran, the presence of these specific assets on Saudi soil—revealed through the lens of a "strategic partner" like China—is not just a tactical threat; it is a declaration of intent.
The Military Reality: The Anatomy of a Strike Force
The specific combination of aircraft detected—13 Tankers, E-3G AWACS, and C-130s—is the "nervous system" and "lungs" of any sustained air campaign.

• 13 Tanker Aircraft:

This is a massive concentration of aerial refueling. It indicates that the U.S. is preparing for long-range, high-tempo sorties. These tankers allow fighter jets to stay airborne for hours and penetrate deep into Iranian territory without landing.

• E-3G AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System):

This is the command-and-control hub. It provides an all-weather surveillance picture and coordinates the entire air battle. Its presence suggests that Washington is preparing for a "complex air environment"—code for a direct confrontation with Iran’s air defenses. 

• C-130 Hercules:

These are the workhorses of logistics. They move special forces, supplies, and equipment to forward positions. Their presence in Saudi Arabia suggests the preparation of "forward staging areas."
Geopolitical Implications for Tehran

1. The Collapse of the "Détente":

Since the 2023 rapprochement, Tehran and Riyadh have maintained a fragile peace. The use of Saudi bases for U.S. strike assets effectively shreds that agreement. For Iran, this means Saudi Arabia is no longer a "neutral neighbor" but a "active platform" for aggression. This forces Iran to re-evaluate its targeting doctrine, which historically includes U.S. bases in host countries. 

2. The China Factor – "The Messenger is the Message":

The fact that this intelligence came from Chinese satellites is a deliberate strategic move by Beijing. By "revealing" this to the world, China is:
• Warning Iran of an imminent threat.
• Signaling to the U.S. that its "secret" build-ups are transparent.
• Exposing the Gulf states' complicity, potentially to force them back toward a diplomatic track.

3. Total Regional Encirclement:

With U.S. assets already in Jordan (THAAD and F-15s), Qatar (Al-Udeid), and now a massive surge in Saudi Arabia, Iran is facing a 360-degree threat. Geopolitically, this confirms that Trump’s strategy is to present Iran with a "surrender or incinerate" ultimatum before the Geneva talks can even produce results.


Strategic Conclusion

History shows that the "Axis of Resistance" does not respond to encirclement with retreat, but with asymmetric escalation. If Saudi Arabia is confirmed as a launchpad for U.S. strikes, Iran’s response will likely not be limited to the U.S. military. It will target the very energy infrastructure that Saudi Arabia and the global economy rely on—the "if we can't export oil, no one will" doctrine.


The observer and Al-Muraqeb should note:

We are no longer in a period of "tension." We are in the "pre-kinetic" phase of a regional war.

The survival of the regional order now depends on whether the Resistance can impose a cost high enough to make this "weekend strike" a suicidal gamble for Washington.


#Iran #SaudiArabia #USA #China #Hormuz #Geopolitics #AxisOfResistance


☑️ Our website

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴Drums of War and Failed Bets: Has Trump Miscalculated?


While Western capitals buzz with the language of "deadlines," those who read history in our region understand that American threats are no longer destiny; they are the echoes of an empire attempting to repair its crumbling prestige.


Strategic Facts & Field Data:

• The Hollow Ultimatum: Donald Trump has set a "10-15 day" deadline for Iran to reach a new nuclear deal, warning of "really bad things." This rhetoric ignores that Tehran has weathered far more intense pressure for decades and emerged more resilient.

• Military Posturing: The presence of the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea, alongside the deployment of the USS Gerald Ford toward the region, is a desperate "Show of Force" against a resistance front stretching from Tehran to Beirut.

• The Iranian Response: Tehran’s formal warning to the UN was blunt: any U.S. aggression will render every U.S. base in the region (from Al-Udeid to Diego Garcia) a "legitimate target."

• The Eurasian Pivot: While Trump issues threats, the Iranian Navy is conducting joint drills with Russia in the Gulf of Oman (featuring the Russian corvette Stoykiy). This signals the birth of a new regional security order that rejects unilateral hegemony.


Strategic Conclusion:

History is accelerating. Those who survived the previous "Maximum Pressure" campaigns will not be intimidated by carrier groups operating in waters now dominated by precision missiles. Betting on the collapse of the Axis of Resistance under the weight of arbitrary deadlines is an academic delusion that fails the test of reality.


#AxisOfResistance #Iran #Trump #Geopolitics #GulfOfOman

☑️ Our website

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴Gaza & Lebanon:

This Week’s Bloodshed Debunks the "Ceasefire" Myth


While political salons fixate on "fragile agreements," the Zionist enemy continues its habit of breaching treaties and spilling blood. The past seven days (Feb 13-20, 2026) have been nothing but a new chapter of systematic genocide and aggression.

The Weekly Toll of Crimes:

• Gaza: In the last week alone, over 121 Palestinians were martyred in strikes targeting shelters in Deir al-Balah and Northern Gaza. This brings the total death toll since the "October Understandings" to 722 martyrs.

• The Hidden Data Scandal: A peer-reviewed study in The Lancet Global Health (published Feb 18, 2026) estimates the true death toll in Gaza has surpassed 75,200. This reveals that over 25,000 souls—largely under the rubble—remain unaccounted for in official counts due to the occupation’s blockade on recovery efforts.

• Lebanon: A severe escalation occurred on Feb 15 when a Zionist drone targeted a vehicle at the Masnaa border crossing, resulting in 4 martyrs. This is a desperate attempt to sever the resistance’s strategic depth.

• The Attrition Count: Since the alleged ceasefire began in Nov 2024, more than 370 Lebanese have been martyred. International reports (as of Feb 19) indicate that January and February saw the highest frequency of strikes since the truce, with over 50 airstrikes in the last few weeks alone.


Strategic Conclusion:

Anyone betting on the resistance disarming amidst this expansionism is delusional. Field data confirms that the "calm" is merely a Zionist tactical repositioning. The response from the Axis fronts will remind the occupier that the policy of "nibbling at land and blood" carries an existential price.


#Gaza #Lebanon #AxisOfResistance #TheLancet #TheObserver #ResistanceUntilVictory

☑️ Our website

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴The Quran and Gunpowder: Khamenei Anchors the Creed Amidst "Deadlines"


While the dark rooms in Washington and Tel Aviv are busy drawing up "timetables" for aggression, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Imam Ali Khamenei, appeared on the first day of Ramadan (February 2026) to reaffirm that the strength of the Axis stems from the "Firm Revelation" before its missile silos.


Strategic Implications of Timing:

• Ideological Resilience: On the first day of the holy month, amidst escalating U.S.-Zionist threats, the Leader chose the "Quranic Gathering." A blunt message to the enemy: Those anchored in a thousand-year legacy of steadfastness are not intimidated by Trump's "15-day" ultimatum.

• Defying the Siege: The gathering was broadcast globally via the internet, a technical and media challenge to the isolation policies the "Global Arrogance" attempts to impose on Tehran.

• The Strategic Response: The presence of reciters and the public is a "psychopolitical" rebuttal; while the occupation threatens to strike facilities, Iran displays its internal stability and the cohesion of its spiritual and military fronts.


Geopolitical Conclusion:

The Islamic Republic does not manage its battles through emotional outbursts, but through long-term strategic patience. The scene of Quranic recitation in the Leader’s presence is a reminder that this Axis possesses a "surplus of moral power" that renders American aircraft carriers mere floating iron in a sea of conviction. History teaches us that invaders vanish, but the Quran and its people remain.


#Khamenei #Ramadan2026 #Iran #AxisOfResistance #HolyQuran #TheObserver

☑️ Our website

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴The "Board of Peace":

Financial Shrouds for Liquidation and Subjugation


In Washington this week, Donald Trump inaugurated the so-called "Board of Peace" (BoP)—a brutal "neoliberal" vehicle designed to enforce American hegemony under the guise of investment. Trump is not selling peace; he is selling political indulgences for billions of dollars.


Strategic Data & Facts (February 2026):

• Membership for Sale: Trump has set a $1 billion "entry fee" for permanent seats on the board. While Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Pakistan, and Indonesia have joined, major European powers like France and Britain have flatly refused. They view the BoP as a "hostile takeover" of global governance, lacking checks and balances and operating entirely outside the UN framework.


• Dubious Funding: Gulf states have pledged over $4 billion (with $1 billion each from Riyadh, Doha, and Kuwait, and $1.2 billion from Abu Dhabi) for "Gaza reconstruction." However, the BoP charter designates Trump as "Chairman for Life" with absolute veto power, ensuring these funds serve as a political leash rather than genuine relief.

• Liquidating the Cause: The initiative seeks to replace Palestinian national aspirations with a "technocratic committee" overseen by Trump. This is a transparent attempt to bypass historical Palestinian rights and the legitimacy of the resistance.

• Imperial Hypocrisy: While peddling "peace" in Washington, Trump continues to mass naval fire-power and threaten Iran with "bad things." The BoP is merely a front to secure Zionist interests and funnel regional wealth into the U.S. treasury.


Strategic Conclusion:
History shows no mercy to those who purchase "security" from their enemy. The "Board of Peace" is an attempt to privatize conflict and turn the blood of martyrs into figures on Trump’s balance sheet. Those who defeated the first "Deal of the Century" will dismantle this distorted investment scheme. Peace is not brokered by middlemen; it is forged by the rifles that refuse to bargain.


#BoardOfPeace #Trump #AxisOfResistance #Gaza #Geopolitics #TheObserver

☑️ Our website

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴Global Market Impact

As of February 20, 2026, geopolitical tensions involving the U.S., Iran, and Israel have driven significant volatility in energy and precious metals. 

Commodity Performance

• Oil (Brent Crude): Prices rose to a seven-month high, trading between $71 and $72 per barrel. The surge is tied to military buildups in the Persian Gulf and fears of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. 

• Gold: The metal has reclaimed the $5,000 per ounce threshold after a period of extreme volatility. It hit an all-time high of $5,595 in late January before stabilizing at current levels as a primary safe-haven asset. 

• Silver: Trading in the upper $77 range, also buoyed by regional instability. 

Market Drivers

• U.S.-Iran Standoff: Naval deployments and diplomatic friction in Geneva regarding nuclear verification have increased the "geopolitical risk premium."

• Supply Constraints: OPEC+ production cuts, particularly from Russia and Kazakhstan, are tightening the market despite rising non-OPEC output from North America.

• Economic Impact: Analysts warn that prolonged high energy prices may stall anticipated interest rate cuts by central banks due to inflationary pressure. 


Forecast Context
While current prices are elevated, the EIA and major banks like J.P. Morgan had previously projected an average Brent price of $58 for 2026, suggesting that the current $70+ range is a direct result of temporary geopolitical shocks rather than long-term demand fundamentals. 

☑️ Our website

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5