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The war drums in Washington and Tel Aviv are beating with a familiar, dangerous rhythm. We hear the recycled rhetoric of "existential threats" and "mullahs with bombs," language designed to sell another catastrophic intervention to a weary global public. But let us be clear: the current obsession with Iran’s missile program by Western powers and the Zionist entity is not about non-proliferation. It is about stripping a sovereign nation of its only viable defense in the most militarized neighborhood on earth.
To understand Iran’s missile doctrine, one must forget CNN headlines and look at a map of the Middle East since 1980. It is a map of invasion, occupation, and encirclement. Iran’s military strategy is not born of imperial ambition, but of a searing historical trauma: the Western-backed devastation of the Iran-Iraq War, followed by decades where US military bases multiplied around its borders like a tightening noose.
In this context, Iran’s missiles are not offensive luxuries; they are an existential necessity. They are the architecture of survival against powers that have proven, repeatedly, their willingness to decimate nations that defy them.
The Arsenal of Asymmetry: A Strategic Overview
Iran cannot match the conventional air power of the United States, nor does it possess the nuclear impunity granted to Israel. Therefore, Tehran has masterminded the region's most sophisticated asymmetric deterrent: a massive, indigenous missile arsenal designed to inflict unacceptable costs on any aggressor.
This arsenal is tiered for strategic depth.
• For immediate regional threats and precision strikes, Iran utilizes the Fateh and Zolfaghar solid-fuel families. These are highly accurate, mobile systems capable of hitting specific military infrastructure across the Persian Gulf.
• The backbone of regional deterrence rests on medium-range ballistic missiles like the ubiquitous Shahab-3 variants and the more advanced, precision-guided Emad and Ghadr. These bring the entire Zionist entity and all US bases in the region within striking distance.
• The long arm of the doctrine includes systems like the Sejjil, a two-stage solid-propellant missile designed for rapid launch and high survivability, and the heavier Khorramshahr.
• Crucially, Iran has diversified into cruise missiles like the Soumar and Hoveyzeh, land-attack systems that fly low to evade radar, complicating any US or Israeli air defense calculus.
This is not a first-strike toolkit. It is a "porcupine" strategy—making the cost of swallowing Iran too painful to contemplate.
Mapping the "Glass House": The Targets of Retaliation
The great deception of Western narratives is the pretense that US forces in the region are benign peacekeepers. In reality, the US military footprint surrounding Iran is a vast array of offensive launchpads. If Washington or Tel Aviv initiate hostilities, they must understand that these forward-deployed assets are living in a glass house.
A US attack—whether naval strikes from the Gulf or air campaigns—would almost certainly trigger massive retaliatory salvoes against the infrastructure sustaining that aggression. We are not talking about hitting cities; we are talking about the nervous system of American power in the Middle East.
Strategic logic dictates that priority targets would include major airbases hosting US strike aircraft in the UAE (like Al-Dhafra) and Qatar (Al-Udeid). The logistical hubs and army camps in Kuwait (like Camp Arifjan or Ali Al-Salem) would be under immediate threat. US troop concentrations in Iraq, already under pressure from Resistance factions, would face devastating barrages. Furthermore, as the "Tower 22" incident in Jordan proved, the US presence bordering Syria is highly vulnerable.
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The Observer
Furthermore, the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet, often patrolling the Persian Gulf with imperial arrogance, would find itself operating in a saturating environment of anti-ship ballistic and cruise missiles, turning narrow waterways into potential kill zones.
The Theater of Threat: Netanyahu and Trump
The escalation we see today is driven less by actual changes in Iran’s posture and more by the desperate political needs of Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump.
Netanyahu, drowning in domestic failure and the strategic quagmire of Gaza, needs a "existential war" to remain in power. He is willing to burn the entire region to save his political skin, constantly pushing for an American strike on Iran that Israel cannot execute alone.
Donald Trump’s rhetoric, meanwhile, oscillates between isolationist transactionalism and hyper-aggressive "maximum pressure." His previous administration assassinated both General Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al Muhandis —an act of war—and tore up the JCPOA. His return to power threatens a policy driven by ego and retribution, lacking any brakes. For both men, threatening Iran is cheap electoral theater; the actual war they risk would be wildly expensive in blood and treasure.
The Global Cost of Hubris
The West conveniently ignores that an attack on Iran will not remain a localized duel. The Axis of Resistance holds the concept of the "Unity of Fields." An existential attack on the center (Iran) will trigger responses from Lebanon to Yemen, engulfing the Zionist entity in multi-front fire.
The global consequences would be immediate and catastrophic. The Persian Gulf remains the jugular vein of the world's energy supply. A major conflict would spike oil prices to levels that would shatter Western economies already teetering on recession. The Strait of Hormuz could be closed, paralyzing global shipping.
Furthermore, China and Russia, who rely on Iranian stability for energy and connectivity (like the North-South Corridor), will not sit idly by while Washington blows up the Eurasian heartland.
Conclusion: The Mirror
The question is not whether Iran’s missiles are a threat to the world. The question is why the world accepts a status quo where the US and Israel can invade, bomb, and sanction the Middle East with impunity, yet demand total disarmament from those who refuse to submit.
Iran’s missile program is a mirror. When Washington looks at it, they do not see aggression; they see a reflection of decades of their own relentless pressure, coup attempts, and military encirclement. Until the West dismantles its empire of bases around Iran, Iran will keep sharpening the only shield it has.
☑️ Our website
🔵 Link to the article in Arabic
🖋 @observer_5
The Theater of Threat: Netanyahu and Trump
The escalation we see today is driven less by actual changes in Iran’s posture and more by the desperate political needs of Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump.
Netanyahu, drowning in domestic failure and the strategic quagmire of Gaza, needs a "existential war" to remain in power. He is willing to burn the entire region to save his political skin, constantly pushing for an American strike on Iran that Israel cannot execute alone.
Donald Trump’s rhetoric, meanwhile, oscillates between isolationist transactionalism and hyper-aggressive "maximum pressure." His previous administration assassinated both General Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al Muhandis —an act of war—and tore up the JCPOA. His return to power threatens a policy driven by ego and retribution, lacking any brakes. For both men, threatening Iran is cheap electoral theater; the actual war they risk would be wildly expensive in blood and treasure.
The Global Cost of Hubris
The West conveniently ignores that an attack on Iran will not remain a localized duel. The Axis of Resistance holds the concept of the "Unity of Fields." An existential attack on the center (Iran) will trigger responses from Lebanon to Yemen, engulfing the Zionist entity in multi-front fire.
The global consequences would be immediate and catastrophic. The Persian Gulf remains the jugular vein of the world's energy supply. A major conflict would spike oil prices to levels that would shatter Western economies already teetering on recession. The Strait of Hormuz could be closed, paralyzing global shipping.
Furthermore, China and Russia, who rely on Iranian stability for energy and connectivity (like the North-South Corridor), will not sit idly by while Washington blows up the Eurasian heartland.
Conclusion: The Mirror
The question is not whether Iran’s missiles are a threat to the world. The question is why the world accepts a status quo where the US and Israel can invade, bomb, and sanction the Middle East with impunity, yet demand total disarmament from those who refuse to submit.
Iran’s missile program is a mirror. When Washington looks at it, they do not see aggression; they see a reflection of decades of their own relentless pressure, coup attempts, and military encirclement. Until the West dismantles its empire of bases around Iran, Iran will keep sharpening the only shield it has.
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They reopen uncomfortable questions about:
Latin America is being folded, quietly, into the same architecture that militarized the Middle East.
It is about power, loyalty, and control—over land, narrative, and silence.
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The Observer
It is who decided this was acceptable—and who ensured it would not be investigated?
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Either break the power of the oligarchy, or slide into a collapse already planned by others.
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Oligarchy, Livelihood Breakdown, and the Dangerous Game with the Country’s Fate
Jeffrey Sachs’s recent speech at the United Nations Security Council—though formally addressing violations of the UN Charter and the intervention of major powers in countries like Venezuela—carries, for us in Iran these days, a deeper and more alarming meaning. What Sachs called “coercion, sanctions, and economic strangulation” can be seen in Iran as a mix of the same phenomena, but in a form that has made the crisis more complex and dangerous. A crisis that I believe is best described by the phrase: managing collapse from within by a corrupt local oligarchy.
In Iran today, the economic crisis and the explosion of prices can no longer be reduced to external sanctions alone. The unprecedented rise in the dollar exchange rate, the runaway inflation of basic goods, and the collapse of people’s livelihoods are the result of external pressure coinciding with the active role of a domestic network of spies and vested interests—those who profit from instability, care nothing for people’s lives or the country’s political future, and are even prepared to surrender national sovereignty, compromise territorial integrity, and then flee.
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The Oligarchy: Crisis Speculator and Engineer of Inflation
The oligarchy dominating Iran’s economy is a tangled network of rent-seekers, currency brokers, monopolistic importers, semi-government contractors, and parts of the political bureaucracy. They are not merely victims of sanctions, but direct beneficiaries of their continuation.
For this network:
• The dollar’s surge is an opportunity, not a threat.
• Inflation is a tool to transfer wealth from below to above.
• The collapse of people’s purchasing power is the price of preserving monopoly and rent.
In such a structure, corruption is not a “deviation” but the systemic logic itself. The existing order can only persist in this exact form. Even the rise in exchange rates is no longer the result of random decisions or pure external pressure, but largely the product of deliberate manipulation of the currency market, dual policies, and intentional refusal to enact structural reforms.
Managed Collapse: A Project Aligned with External Interests
More dangerously, this same oligarchy has, at a deeper level, practically converged with scenarios of regime collapse that serve U.S. and Israeli interests. This convergence is not ideological but dictated by economic interests.
This managed collapse:
• Devalues assets.
• Facilitates capital flight.
• Opens the way for redistribution of power in favor of networks already tied to global centers of strength.
Thus, many of the anti-American and anti-Israeli slogans are little more than rhetorical cover for policies that lead precisely to the outcome Washington and Tel Aviv desire: a weak, unstable, isolated Iran drowning in internal crises.
Absence of Will at the Top; Strategic Paralysis
In this situation, the absence of genuine will at the top of the political and security system plays a decisive role. Neither the supreme leadership nor the military-security establishment has shown serious intent to:
• Break the oligarchy’s influence.
• Contain structural corruption.
• Rebuild economic policy in favor of society.
• Or enact real change in foreign policy to secure sustainable security.
Global experiences—including those Sachs referenced—show that sustainable security comes through smart de-escalation and reliance on global power balances. Yet Iran remains dangerously suspended.
Deliberate Sabotage of Relations with China and Russia
The oligarchy has also played a major role in sabotaging strategic relations with China and Russia. At different times:
• Agreements were drafted vaguely and ineffectively.
• Economic and structural cooperation was deliberately obstructed or emptied of substance.
• Media narratives portrayed these relations as “dependency” or “selling out the country.”
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The Observer
The result was not independence but deeper isolation for Iran—an isolation that served both the domestic oligarchy and Iran’s external adversaries.
Without an active, transparent, and balanced foreign policy, Iran has neither truly aligned with the East nor reached sustainable understanding with the West. Instead, it remains stuck in a costly, exhausting middle ground—exactly what internal compromise-seeking currents, including a significant part of the reformist camp, aim for, ultimately pushing the country toward a negotiation table that leads to complete surrender.
Protests: Society’s Response to the Alliance of Corruption and Political Paralysis
The recent protests in Iran are society’s direct response to this undeclared alliance between internal corruption, political deadlock, and external pressure. A people growing poorer by the day rightly ask:
Who is responsible? Who benefits from this situation? Why is no one held accountable?
These protests—though exploited by Iran’s enemies abroad and steered by their paid media—are not a foreign project nor an internal conspiracy. They are the natural result of decades of destructive domestic policies that sacrificed the people, weakened the country, and made it more fragile.
What brought Iran to this point is the coexistence of sanctions and a corrupt oligarchy, combined with the absence of political will for change.
If this path continues, there will be no independence, no security, and not even a reformable system.
We have reached the end of the road.
Iran stands before a historic choice:
Either break the power of the corrupt oligarchy and return politics to serving society,
Or slide gradually into a collapse planned by others.
There is no third way.
Reza Fani Yazdi
January 16, 2026
☑️ Our website
🔵 Link to the article in Arabic
🖋 @observer_5
Without an active, transparent, and balanced foreign policy, Iran has neither truly aligned with the East nor reached sustainable understanding with the West. Instead, it remains stuck in a costly, exhausting middle ground—exactly what internal compromise-seeking currents, including a significant part of the reformist camp, aim for, ultimately pushing the country toward a negotiation table that leads to complete surrender.
Protests: Society’s Response to the Alliance of Corruption and Political Paralysis
The recent protests in Iran are society’s direct response to this undeclared alliance between internal corruption, political deadlock, and external pressure. A people growing poorer by the day rightly ask:
Who is responsible? Who benefits from this situation? Why is no one held accountable?
These protests—though exploited by Iran’s enemies abroad and steered by their paid media—are not a foreign project nor an internal conspiracy. They are the natural result of decades of destructive domestic policies that sacrificed the people, weakened the country, and made it more fragile.
What brought Iran to this point is the coexistence of sanctions and a corrupt oligarchy, combined with the absence of political will for change.
If this path continues, there will be no independence, no security, and not even a reformable system.
We have reached the end of the road.
Iran stands before a historic choice:
Either break the power of the corrupt oligarchy and return politics to serving society,
Or slide gradually into a collapse planned by others.
There is no third way.
Reza Fani Yazdi
January 16, 2026
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We are witnessing the death of liberal universalism. As Gramsci warned, "The old world is dying, and the new one is being born." Davos is the funeral parlor of the old world, where elites mourn the loss of a time when their word was law.
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The Observer
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Coralling the population into a monitored, desolate kill-box in the south, effectively emptying the north for annexation.
#Gaza #Palestine #Geopolitics #Imperialism
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toppling the ruling system would make the United States safer.
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At the NSIF Forum, Palantir co-founder Alex Karp stripped away the liberal veneer of "democracy" and "human rights" to reveal the raw, ugly engine of the American Empire.
Asked how the US can "stay in history" for another thousand years—a phrasing that echoes the darkest totalitarian ambitions of the 20th century—Karp didn’t speak of innovation, peace, or culture.
💬 “To dominate on the battlefield today,” Karp declared. “The way you dominate the future is you dominate the present.”
Let this be clear: The Silicon Valley elite are not building a global village. They are digitizing the Roman legion.
Western "civilization" has not evolved beyond the barbarian logic of conquest and plunder.
They have simply traded their clubs for AI-driven targeting systems and their war paint for PR campaigns. They do not want a better world; they want a subjugated one.
This is why the Resistance exists. Not just to fight an occupation, but to dismantle a hegemony that views eternal war as a strategy for survival.
#Imperialism #Palantir #NSIF #TheObserver
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Charles Ayoub — Ad-Diyar
With every political speech—whether from the opposition or supporters—speakers inevitably claim that the war in Lebanon is caused by Hezbollah’s weapons.
The reality, however, is that for over a year, Hezbollah has not fired a single bullet at the Israeli enemy. It remains committed to self-restraint and non-engagement.
This comes despite daily aggression against Hezbollah members. The Israeli army assassinates civilians in their cars or on motorcycles, simply announcing they are "Hezbollah elements."
These individuals are unarmed. They are not in a combat posture. They are not escorting or approaching Israeli occupation points in Southern Lebanon or elsewhere—whether in the northeast of Baalbek-Hermel, the Jezzine area, Zahrani, or the Sidon district.
Hezbollah’s members are, of course, brave. They are strugglers, fighters, and defenders of Lebanese soil.
Their history is a history of liberation and defense; the border strip is the greatest example of fighting against and liberating land from occupation.
The 2006 war was another major example of the resilience of Hezbollah’s forces against an Israeli army that mobilized its full strength to attack Lebanese territory, yet failed.
Today, Hezbollah adheres to "strategic patience." It remains on high alert to defend occupied Lebanese lands on the ground should Israel attempt a land invasion.
Israel, however, limits itself to air attacks and occasional naval shelling—though the latter is rare.
Then we come to the "Mechanism" (the monitoring body). It is headed by an American general, assisted by a French general, and includes a Lebanese civilian figure, Ambassador Simon Karam, and an Israeli civilian figure.
This Mechanism neither helps nor harms; it is simply a false witness to one Israeli aggression after another.
The international forces (UNIFIL) are more than just witnesses—they are targets, coming under Israeli fire during their movements in southern Lebanon.
Consequently, the Mechanism is useless. By its mandate, it is obliged to inform the concerned states and the UN Security Council about the clashes in southern Lebanon and identify the aggressor. Yet, so far, it has yielded zero results.
Even the United States, which heads this Mechanism, turns a blind eye to all acts of the Israeli enemy on Lebanese soil and in the areas occupied by the Israeli army.
Every day, we hear an American statement claiming the problem is Hezbollah and that Hezbollah’s weapons are responsible for the war in the South.
The US refuses to state the truth as it is:
That the Israeli enemy is the one conducting the aggressions.
That the war being managed in southern Lebanon is being waged by the officers and soldiers of the Israeli enemy army.
But the United States and Israel are committed to a unified stance and aggression. They agree on striking the Resistance and Hezbollah in Lebanon, aiming to completely annul the weapon of the Resistance.
The proof is that Lebanon and its army, in coordination with the Resistance, implemented the "exclusivity of weapons" south of the Litani River.
It was expected that the United States, and even the Israeli enemy, would withdraw from certain points as a temporary, small step toward peace.
Instead, Tom Barrack, the envoy of US President Donald Trump, visited the South and Lebanon several times...
Only to conclude by saying that the entire problem lies in the "reputation of war" that Hezbollah violates in southern Lebanon.
This is despite Hezbollah responding positively to the Lebanese Army and international forces, and implementing weapons exclusivity in the south.
When the US Presidential envoy Tom Barrack returned from Tel Aviv and met with Speaker Nabih Berri—who was waiting for a positive answer based on a "step-for-step" approach—President Berri became angry and uttered his famous phrase:
“We were waiting for a positive answer, but they brought us the opposite.”
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