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🔴 U.S. Military Advisors Deploy to Saudi Arabia as Yemen War Escalates The United States has reportedly deployed more than 100 military advisors to Saudi Arabia to provide intelligence and battlefield support as Riyadh intensifies its military campaign against…
🚨 Strategic Intelligence Triumph: Advanced US-Zionist-Emirati Surveillance Systems Seized


The Yemeni Armed Forces have carried out a successful operation, seizing a suite of state-of-the-art surveillance systems and naval radars provided as gifts by the terrorist regimes of the United States, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates to their proxy coalition forces.

The captured intelligence assets include:

French Thales CoastWatcher 100 System: Operates on advanced AI algorithms for automated data fusion and real-time detection of suspicious maritime behavior across a range exceeding 150 nautical miles.

German Hensoldt Spexer / Kelvin Hughes SharpEye System: Designed to penetrate severe wave interference and track high-speed, micro-targets—including inflatable craft, speedboats, and floating naval mines—in severe sea conditions.

Israeli Elta Mobile Coastal Radar (ELM-2226 ACSR): Utilizes Low Probability of Intercept (LPI) characteristics, allowing operation without detection by electronic warfare systems.

Submerged Sensor Networks ("Blue Whale"): Deployed in the strategic waters surrounding the Hanish and Zuqar islands.

Long-Range Thermal Camera Systems (EO/IR): Integrated with laser rangefinders for precise nocturnal targeting, vessel identification, and coastal monitoring.

All systems are now under the complete control of the Yemeni Armed Forces.

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🔴 INTELLIGENCE BRIEF | BAB AL-MANDAB

⚠️ A maritime chokepoint is becoming a strategic weapon.

The Israeli military analyst, Doron Kadosh, underscores the scale of what is at stake:

🚢 Bab al-Mandab is a critical artery linking Asian trade with Europe.

🔻 If shipping is forced to bypass the Red Sea and sail around Africa, the alternative route adds roughly 3,000 km and up to 15 days at sea.

That means higher fuel costs, longer supply chains, greater insurance exposure, and mounting pressure on global energy and commodity markets.

🎯 The strategic significance goes beyond Israel.

Bab al-Mandab connects the maritime system linking the Indian Ocean, Red Sea, Suez Canal and European markets, while also serving as the maritime gateway to Israel’s Eilat port.

The intelligence takeaway:

If Yemen can sustain the ability to disrupt this corridor, it does not need to defeat a major navy conventionally.

It only needs to make the route too dangerous or too expensive to use.

Alongside the Strait of Hormuz, Bab al-Mandab becomes a pressure point capable of turning a regional confrontation into a global economic and energy crisis.


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🔴 Just Two Hours After Riyadh’s Statement: Al-Zaidi Dismisses Maysan Operations Commander — An Impulsive Reaction Lacking Wisdom 📍 Baghdad Just two hours after the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement accusing Iraq of being the source of…
🚨 RED FLAG | BAGHDAD’S SAUDI CRISIS COULD BECOME A WEAPON AGAINST THE HASHD

Iraq is rapidly escalating its response to the alleged attacks on Saudi Arabia.

🇮🇶 A broad security operation is underway in Maysan to track those allegedly responsible. Local sources also report orders for the Iraqi Army and police to deploy across Basra, conduct searches targeting individuals wanted under Article 4 of the Anti-Terrorism Law, and investigate how equipment and materials allegedly originating from Iran entered Iraq and may have been used in the attacks.

🔴 Now comes another significant move: a senior Iraqi security official told Al Mayadeen that the Office of the Commander-in-Chief ordered the closure of the Shalamcheh border crossing with Iran in Basra. Reuters, citing two security sources, subsequently reported that the closure was ordered as a precautionary measure following the attacks on Saudi Arabia.

The crossing closure comes days after Saudi Arabia alleged that drones launched from Maysan struck its East-West oil pipeline near Riyadh and Medina. In response, Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi dismissed the Maysan operations commander and ordered an investigative council.

Baghdad has also declared that Iraqi territory and airspace will not be used as a launching pad for aggression against any country, pledging to prevent further attacks originating from Iraqi soil.

✈️ Meanwhile, Iraq has officially suspended flights to and from Iran until further notice.

🎯 THE RED FLAG

Taken individually, each measure can be presented as a legitimate security response.

Taken together, however, they reveal a much broader trajectory:

Saudi attack → Maysan investigation → Basra security sweep → Iran border closure → suspension of Iran flights → renewed pressure on armed factions.

And the political timing is impossible to ignore.

Zaidi is already under intense pressure to disarm Iran-aligned armed factions by September 30, while powerful factions have resisted the demand.

The Saudi attacks therefore provide Baghdad with a potentially powerful narrative:

Iraqi territory → armed groups → attacks on Saudi Arabia → threat to state sovereignty.

⚠️ That narrative can become a political weapon.

It could be used to justify expanded arrests, weapons seizures, border restrictions and intensified pressure on the Hashd and the Islamic Resistance.

There is a legitimate question:

Who launched the attacks?

But there is another question Baghdad must answer:

Who benefits if an investigation into the attacks becomes a broader campaign against Iraq’s resistance factions?

The government must produce evidence, not political assumptions: launch-site intelligence, forensic evidence, command-and-control links, weapons provenance and identified perpetrators.

Otherwise, a genuine security investigation risks becoming a pretext for restructuring Iraq’s internal balance of power under pressure from Riyadh and Washington.

The issue is no longer only who attacked Saudi Arabia.

The issue is whether Baghdad will use the attack to redefine who controls Iraq’s weapons, borders and strategic decision-making.

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🔴 INTELLIGENCE BRIEF | BAB AL-MANDAB ⚠️ A maritime chokepoint is becoming a strategic weapon. The Israeli military analyst, Doron Kadosh, underscores the scale of what is at stake: 🚢 Bab al-Mandab is a critical artery linking Asian trade with Europe. …
🔴The Illusion of Paper Alliances: How the Gulf Regimes Exposed Their Own Impotence


Even figures close to the Abu Dhabi regime, like Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, are now forced to publicly admit the truth:
the grand defense pacts praised by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and their allies are nothing more than empty slogans.


Facing the steadfast posture of Ansarullah and the Yemeni Armed Forces in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab, these multi-nation coalitions have proven entirely paralyzed and confused.

The reality of the Persian Gulf monarchies is clear: despite spending hundreds of billions on foreign arms, these regimes remain fundamentally weak. They are incapable of projecting military force or defending their strategic interests without direct backing, command, and operational support from Washington and Tel Aviv. When forced to act independently, their political and security structures unravel.

While the coalition relies on foreign superpowers for protection, Ansarullah has demonstrated true sovereign decision-making, resilience, and military competence on the ground and at sea. The crisis in the Red Sea has permanently exposed that regional alliances built on dependency cannot stand against genuine domestic resolve.

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Field Intelligence Brief: Israeli Aggression in Southern Lebanon


Operational Situation Report

Enemy forces launched a coordinated wave of heavy strikes across multiple sectors in Southern Lebanon. The assault targeted civilian infrastructure, residential quarters, and strategic geography, utilizing combined aerial bombardment, engineering demolitions, and heavy artillery shelling. Low-altitude enemy unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) maintained continuous reconnaissance coverage over the operational sectors, extending north toward the capital and its southern suburbs.

Sequence of Engagement (Timeline)

Overnight / Early Operations: Enemy engineering units executed heavy explosive demolitions at key high-altitude strategic features, including the Ali al-Taher hill overlooking the Marjayoun district. The resulting structural damage triggered massive rockfalls, severing critical civilian and military supply lines along the Khardali road.

Mid-Day Strikes: Enemy fighter jets executed low-altitude bombing runs over the Tyre district, striking the town of Mansouri with sequential high-explosive ordnance. Additional airstrikes simultaneously struck the outskirts of Nabatieh al-Fawqa.

Afternoon Demolitions & Artillery Enfilade: Enemy heavy artillery batteries opened concentrated suppressive fire on the Ali al-Taher hill and Wadi al-Hujeir. Ground forces initiated secondary demolition operations in the Bint Jbeil sector near Baraachit, alongside sustained artillery strikes near Mansouri, leveling public educational facilities and residential housing blocks.


Ordnance & Ammunition Profiles

Precision-Guided Munitions (PGMs): Enemy warplanes deployed heavy, air-delivered joint direct attack munitions (JDAMs) and anti-fortification glide bombs to target multi-story structures and fortified public facilities in Mansouri and Nabatieh.

Controlled Heavy Explosives: High-yield military demolition charges were set and detonated by enemy ground forces to systematically collapse key ridgelines, strategic hilltops, and structural edifices in Baraachit and Ali al-Taher.

Heavy Field Artillery: 155mm high-explosive artillery shells were deployed in concentrated barrages across the Wadi al-Hujeir corridor and peripheral hill positions to deny movement and clear sightlines.


Damage Assessment & Casualties

Human Losses: Explosive demolitions and air bombardment across the Tyre, Bint Jbeil, and Nabatieh districts resulted in civilian casualties, destroyed residential properties, and damaged civil defense capacity. Rescue units faced localized delays due to obstructed transit routes.

Infrastructure & Tactical Damage: Enemy strikes demolished the public school in Mansouri and leveled adjacent residential sectors. The strategic transit corridor along the Khardali road was rendered entirely impassable due to deliberate destabilization of the Ali al-Taher ridge, obstructing logistics across the Marjayoun sector.

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🚨 Seven Women Killed in One Week… When Women’s Rights Become Selective

Southern Lebanon | September 2026

In just four days, seven women and girls were killed in Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon, targeting homes and residential areas:

▪️ Maryam Salameh – Mifdoun | September 4
A young woman who had recently graduated from school and was preparing to begin university.

▪️ Isra’ Bahja – Arab Salim | September 6
A teacher and educator who was preparing to welcome her students at the beginning of the new academic year.

▪️ Basima Hassan – Arab Salim | September 6
A mother of three and the daughter of martyr Haidar Hassan.

▪️ Hiba Ali Sabah – Kfar Rumman | September 7
A graduate of the Faculty of Science and an employee at the Ministry of Labor, known for her competence and dedication to serving citizens.

▪️ Zahraa Ayyoub – Kfar Rumman | September 7
A municipal employee who served the people of her town and followed up on their affairs.

▪️ Fatima Hassan Farhat – Kfar Rumman | September 7
Killed alongside her mother, Hiba Sabah.

▪️ Maryam Hussein Farhat – Kfar Rumman | September 7
A child among the victims of the massacre, which also claimed the lives of several other civilians.

In Kfar Rumman, Hiba Sabah’s two children survived the massacre but sustained severe injuries and were reported to be in critical condition.

THE POLITICAL INDICATOR

The issue is not simply the number of victims.

The issue is who is allowed to be a victim worthy of solidarity, and who is excluded from the human-rights narrative.

While images and stories of the women killed circulated across social media, a striking silence emerged from segments of the feminist discourse, according to the report’s authors, regarding the targeting of women and civilians in the south.

This raises a direct political and moral question:

Are women’s rights a universal principle, or a selective discourse determined by the victim’s identity and political and geographic position?

If the killing of women and violence against civilians in wartime constitute crimes, the characterization of those crimes should not change according to the identity of the perpetrator or the political affiliation of the victim.

And if protecting women is a principle, southern Lebanese women are not an exception.

THE BOTTOM LINE

The most dangerous outcome for the cause of women’s rights is for it to be transformed from a human-rights principle into an instrument of political alignment.

The right to life does not require an acceptable political identity.

A civilian does not cease to be a civilian because she lives in the south.

And a woman does not become less deserving of protection because she does not belong to the political camp favored by certain rights-based narratives.

The real test of any discourse on women’s rights is not when the victim “looks like us,” but when the victim is different from us.

Seven women in one week.

The question is not only: Who killed them?

It is also:

Why are their voices not being heard with the same force?

🖋 Prepared by: Bushra Hammoud & Hiba Ali

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🔴The Illusion of Paper Alliances: How the Gulf Regimes Exposed Their Own Impotence Even figures close to the Abu Dhabi regime, like Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, are now forced to publicly admit the truth: the grand defense pacts praised by Saudi Arabia, the UAE…
🔴 WAR MONITOR | Abha: Satellite Imagery Shows Major Damage to Aramco Facility

Southern Saudi Arabia | 13th of September 2026

New satellite imagery indicates extensive damage to an Aramco oil facility in Abha following attacks claimed by Yemen’s Houthi movement.

The imagery reportedly shows:

▪️ At least 6 oil-storage tanks completely destroyed

▪️ 8 additional tanks damaged to varying degrees

▪️ Damage concentrated across the facility, with destruction severe enough to indicate that the installation is likely out of service

STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT

This is not a symbolic strike.

The reported destruction of multiple storage tanks represents a direct hit on Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure and operational resilience.

For Riyadh, the vulnerability is significant: fixed petroleum infrastructure is difficult to conceal, difficult to rapidly replace, and dependent on interconnected storage, processing and distribution networks.

For Ansar Allah, the strikes demonstrate the continuing ability to reach strategically important Saudi targets despite the kingdom’s extensive air-defense architecture and foreign military support.

Saudi Arabia has spent heavily on Western weapons and security systems while continuing its campaign against Yemen. The damage at Abha exposes the limits of that investment when faced with a determined adversary capable of sustaining long-range strike pressure.

The battlefield message is straightforward: Saudi infrastructure remains exposed, and military superiority on paper does not guarantee immunity on the ground.

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🔴 ENDLESS U.S. ARROGANCE: AFGHANISTAN SHOCKS TRUMP, REFUSES TO HAND OVER U.S. MILITARY EQUIPMENT ⚡️

In a scene reflecting what critics describe as the height of imperial arrogance, U.S. President Donald Trump has demanded that Afghanistan return the military equipment and weapons left behind by U.S. forces during their humiliating withdrawal in 2021. The abandoned equipment is estimated to be worth around $7.1 billion, with Washington arguing that
“the American people paid for it.”


The Afghan response came as a direct rejection of Washington’s demand.

Afghan Foreign Ministry spokesman Abdul Qahar Balkhi categorically rejected the request, stating that the equipment has become the property of the Afghan state and is not subject to negotiation.

When Balkhi was reminded of the U.S. argument, he responded with a pointed counterargument:

“The United States killed huge numbers of people, the vast majority of them civilians, and destroyed most of the country. Shouldn’t it pay for those crimes first?”


UPDATE | DEVELOPMENTS

Reports indicate that the Afghan government views the abandoned military equipment, including tens of thousands of vehicles and advanced weapons systems, as “war spoils” and a limited form of compensation for two decades of occupation and extensive destruction.

Despite reported attempts by Washington to exert pressure, including through Afghanistan’s frozen assets and possible conditions linked to normalization, Kabul has reportedly closed the issue, maintaining that the equipment is now a core component of Afghanistan’s military arsenal.

Sources: CBS News / Azerbaijani news agency Axar.az


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🚨 Strategic Intelligence Triumph: Advanced US-Zionist-Emirati Surveillance Systems Seized The Yemeni Armed Forces have carried out a successful operation, seizing a suite of state-of-the-art surveillance systems and naval radars provided as gifts by the…
🔴 WAR MONITOR | Reported Losses of Tariq Saleh’s Forces on Yemen’s West Coast

Western Coast of Yemen | Estimated Military Losses

According to figures circulating in pro-Ansar Allah sources, forces commanded by Brig. Gen. Tariq Saleh, aligned with the Saudi-led coalition, have reportedly sustained substantial equipment losses on Yemen’s western coast.

🔷 VEHICLES & ARMORED SYSTEMS

▪️ 1,100 military vehicles of various types, including Hilux and Shas pickups
▪️ Around 600 equipped with 12.7mm and 14.5mm heavy machine guns
▪️ 120 Emirati Nimr armored vehicles
▪️ 90 U.S.-made Oshkosh armored vehicles
▪️ 60 Caiman armored personnel carriers
▪️ 40 RG-31 armored vehicles

🔷 TANKS

▪️ 18 T-55 tanks
▪️ 10 T-62 tanks
▪️ 5 T-72 tanks

🔷 ARTILLERY & ROCKET SYSTEMS

▪️ 20 BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launchers, 122mm, 40 tubes each
▪️ 25 light/modified multiple rocket launchers, carrying 12–24 tubes
▪️ 20 D-30 howitzers, 122mm
▪️ 15 M198/M114 artillery pieces, 155mm
▪️ 60 120mm mortar systems, including M120/2S12

🔷 COASTAL DEFENSE WEAPONS

▪️ 25 D-30 guns, 122mm
▪️ 15 M-46 guns, 130mm
▪️ 10 M198/M114 artillery pieces, 155mm
▪️ 80 twin-barrel 23mm ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft guns
▪️ 50 Kornet-E anti-tank guided missile systems
▪️ 30 BGM-71 TOW anti-tank missile systems
▪️ 35 Konkurs and Fagot anti-tank missile systems

⚠️ ASSESSMENT

The reported inventory represents a significant loss of armored mobility, artillery, rocket-launch capability, and anti-armor capacity for Tariq Saleh’s forces on the western coast.


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🔴 WAR MONITOR | Abha: Satellite Imagery Shows Major Damage to Aramco Facility Southern Saudi Arabia | 13th of September 2026 New satellite imagery indicates extensive damage to an Aramco oil facility in Abha following attacks claimed by Yemen’s Houthi movement.…
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🚨🚨 SALUTE TO ANSAR ALLAH’S PRECISION STRIKE CAPABILITY

Official Spokesman for the Yemeni Armed Forces, Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree:

In response to the continuation of the criminal Saudi enemy’s aggression against our country…

The Yemeni Armed Forces carried out a
qualitative military operation
targeting weapons storage facilities and command-and-control rooms used to direct the aggression against our country and our people at the military base in the
Saudi area of Sharurah
.

The operation was carried out using a
large salvo of ballistic missiles and drones
, with the strikes achieving precise and direct hits, by the grace and assistance of God.

We affirm to the criminal Saudi enemy that its continued aggression against our people will be met with
more severe and larger-scale operations deep inside its territory
, and that the consequences will be grave, by God’s permission and strength.


On the field :

A targeted and devastating operation reportedly resulted in the complete destruction of an Aramco storage facility in Abha, once again demonstrating Sana’a’s claimed ability to reach targets deep inside Saudi Arabia with high precision, reinforce deterrence equations, and challenge the confidence of its adversaries.

UPDATE | DEVELOPMENTS

The strikes reportedly form part of a broader series of operations targeting vital economic, military, and strategic infrastructure deep inside Saudi Arabia, in response to the ongoing escalation.

Satellite imagery reportedly showed extensive destruction at Aramco’s storage tanks, accompanied by rising smoke from fires. The damage reportedly disrupted operations at the facility, reinforcing Ansar Allah’s message that infrastructure supporting the Saudi war effort remains within its operational reach.

Sources: Yemeni Military Media / The Economic Times

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🔴 LEBANON WAR MONITOR | Israeli Attacks on Lebanese Territory

12 September 2026 | Southern Lebanon

A summary of the Israeli attacks reported across southern Lebanon on 12 September 2026:

🟠 ISRAELI AIRSTRIKES

▪️ Kfar Tibnit
▪️ Al-Arish neighborhood, Hadatha
▪️ Mansouri
▪️ Between Mais al-Jabal and Shaqra
▪️ Al-Qantara
▪️ Wadi Zibqin
▪️ Nabatieh al-Fawqa
▪️ Al-Dabsha
▪️ Doha, Kafr Rummaneh

🟠 ISRAELI ARTILLERY SHELLING

▪️ Wadi Saluki
▪️ Wadi al-Hujeir
▪️ Nabatieh al-Fawqa
▪️ Mais al-Jabal
▪️ Kfar Tibnit
▪️ Houla
▪️ Sarbine
▪️ Eastern Zawtar
▪️ Ali al-Taher
▪️ Mansouri
▪️ Aita al-Jabal
▪️ Beit Yahoun

🟠 DEMOLITIONS / EXPLOSIONS IN SOUTHERN TOWNS

▪️ Mansouri
▪️ Taybeh
▪️ Ainatha
▪️ Al-Qantara
▪️ Mais al-Jabal
▪️ Khiam


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The Observer
🔴 WAR MONITOR | Abha: Satellite Imagery Shows Major Damage to Aramco Facility Southern Saudi Arabia | 13th of September 2026 New satellite imagery indicates extensive damage to an Aramco oil facility in Abha following attacks claimed by Yemen’s Houthi movement.…
🚨 LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Temporary Shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s East-West Oil Pipeline

The Saudi Ministry of Energy, in the name of Minister of Energy Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, issued the following statement:

“The East-West Oil Pipeline, extending between the Eastern Province and the Red Sea ports, was subjected to multiple attacks on Thursday morning in the Riyadh and Medina regions, resulting in several injuries. The pipeline was subsequently shut down as a precautionary measure. Security and technical teams immediately responded to the incident and took the necessary measures to secure the pipeline and assess its integrity in accordance with approved emergency plans.”


🔴 SECURITY DEVELOPMENTS

Precautionary shutdown: The aerial attacks, reportedly carried out by drones, prompted a temporary shutdown of the pipeline to assess the extent of the damage and protect critical infrastructure.

Casualties: Several people were reportedly injured, with medical care provided at the affected sites.

Oil flows: The disruption temporarily affected the movement of approximately 4–5 million barrels per day transported through the pipeline as an alternative route to avoid disrupted maritime corridors.

🔴 EXPECTED IMPACT

Global oil markets: A higher risk premium and an immediate surge in crude prices, potentially pushing prices above the $100-per-barrel threshold amid concerns over global supply disruptions.

Export-route congestion: Increased logistical pressure on oil transportation through the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz, potentially extending supply-chain transit times and raising insurance and shipping costs.

Rising regional risks: The targeting of critical energy infrastructure is expanding to major overland oil routes, increasing geopolitical tensions and triggering heightened security measures across the region.

🔴BOTTOM LINE

The temporary shutdown of the East-West Oil Pipeline represents a direct disruption to a key alternative artery for Saudi oil exports. If prolonged, the disruption could deepen pressure on global energy markets and drive sharp price increases amid growing security risks across the region.

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🔴 THE WEST BANK AFTER LEBANON | What Is the Israeli Military Planning?

Mohammad Abu Allan writes:

Following the conclusion of Israeli operations in the Ali al-Taher Heights in southern Lebanon, Israeli attention is shifting toward the West Bank, amid heightened alert ahead of the Jewish holidays and military exercises simulating various security scenarios.

According to Mohammad Abu Allan, the question now is: What is the Israeli military planning for the West Bank in the next phase?

🔻 What Is the Israeli Military Media Reporting?

Abu Allan cites Amir Bohbot, military correspondent for the Israeli website Walla, as saying that after its operations against tunnels in the Ali al-Taher Heights in Lebanon, the Israeli military is preparing for what he described as the need for a “radical treatment” of the issue of terrorism in the West Bank.

🔻 A Contradiction in Israeli Assessments

The Israeli state of alert comes at a time when, according to Abu Allan, Israeli security and political assessments indicate that the level of Palestinian resistance operations is at its lowest point since 2011.

However, the Israeli military says it is monitoring indicators that could change this situation, including:

▪️ Increased friction on the ground.
▪️ The possibility of a shift in the level of operations.
▪️ The scenario of
“the barrels of the guns turning”,

referring to the possibility of the Palestinian security forces turning against Israel or entering into confrontation with it.

🔻 The Potential Israeli Assessment

According to assessments attributed to the Israeli security establishment, as cited by Abu Allan, the political leadership may push for:

▪️ The occupation or takeover of additional Palestinian refugee camps.
▪️ An expansion of military operations across the West Bank.
▪️ A transition to a broader military operation if the security situation is judged to be moving toward escalation.

📌 INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT

The issue is not that the resistance in the West Bank is currently experiencing an exceptional escalation, according to these assessments. Rather, the Israeli security establishment appears to be preparing for a scenario in which the situation could change rapidly, with Palestinian refugee camps and the Palestinian security forces emerging as key potential flashpoints.

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🚨 A Constitutional Earthquake Threatens the British Crown: Three Nations Unite to Challenge the “Union”

This historic political development points to the formation of a united front bringing together national leadership in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland, with the aim of signing a joint declaration in Cardiff affirming these nations’ right to self-determination. Such a move would place the Westminster government in direct confrontation with the prospect of the United Kingdom’s fragmentation.

🔴 EXPECTED IMPLICATIONS

1️⃣ Acute Constitutional Crisis:
Forcing the central government in London to confront demands for referendums, potentially plunging the country into a period of legal and political uncertainty.

2️⃣ Dismantling of the United Kingdom:
Opening the door to Scottish and Welsh independence, while strengthening the prospects of Northern Ireland reunifying with the Republic of Ireland.

3️⃣ Economic and Trade Impact:
The regions’ pursuit of separation reflects a desire to develop independent trade networks and potentially reintegrate with the European Single Market.

4️⃣ Declining Geopolitical Influence:
A reduction in the size of the British state and a corresponding decline in its standing as a major power on the international stage.

🔴 CAUSES OF THE CRISIS

🔹 This historic shift is driven by several accumulated factors, most notably the growing influence of pro-independence parties and their simultaneous rise to power across the three nations.

🔹 The divide deepened significantly following Brexit. Voters in Scotland and Northern Ireland backed remaining in the European Union, creating a sharp conflict with the policies pursued by the central government in London.

🔹 This is compounded by the economic and political marginalization perceived by these regions in comparison with England, alongside existing legal frameworks such as the Good Friday Agreement, which provides Northern Ireland with a constitutional pathway to determine its future.


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