The Regional War: Existential Battles and a Shifting Global Order
✍🏻Dr. Mohamed Hassan Sweidan
To understand today's regional conflict, it must be viewed through two interconnected tracks:
1. The Existential Track (Post-Oct 7): Israel, Hezbollah, Iran, US influence, and the Palestinian cause all view this confrontation as a battle for survival.
2. The Global Order Track: The conflict coincides with the reshaping of global power balances. The outcomes will define each player's position in the new international system.
Despite a signed ceasefire agreement between Washington and Tehran, implementation is stalled. The US is escalating to pressure Iran into renegotiating its nuclear file and fuel internal divisions.
Conversely, Iran is raising the cost of escalation to show it will not back down, even if it means full-scale military confrontation.
✍🏻Dr. Mohamed Hassan Sweidan
To understand today's regional conflict, it must be viewed through two interconnected tracks:
1. The Existential Track (Post-Oct 7): Israel, Hezbollah, Iran, US influence, and the Palestinian cause all view this confrontation as a battle for survival.
2. The Global Order Track: The conflict coincides with the reshaping of global power balances. The outcomes will define each player's position in the new international system.
Despite a signed ceasefire agreement between Washington and Tehran, implementation is stalled. The US is escalating to pressure Iran into renegotiating its nuclear file and fuel internal divisions.
Conversely, Iran is raising the cost of escalation to show it will not back down, even if it means full-scale military confrontation.
Everything occurring—including the events in South Lebanon—is part of a broader regional war with existential stakes. No side can afford to retreat, as the results will shape the future global and regional order.
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Kuwait Burns as Washington’s Proxy
Iranian missiles and drones struck two critical sites in Kuwait: the Saad Al‑Abdullah Academy for Security Sciences and the KNPC North Pier oil export facility. Flames engulfed the pier, with smoke visible even from satellites — a stark reminder that U.S. bases in Kuwait have turned the country into a launchpad for aggression against Iran.
Kuwait’s rulers bear responsibility: by hosting American forces and allowing their soil to be used against Tehran, they have invited retaliation and placed their own infrastructure in the line of fire. This is not “collateral damage” — it is the direct consequence of surrendering sovereignty to Washington’s war machine.
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Iranian missiles and drones struck two critical sites in Kuwait: the Saad Al‑Abdullah Academy for Security Sciences and the KNPC North Pier oil export facility. Flames engulfed the pier, with smoke visible even from satellites — a stark reminder that U.S. bases in Kuwait have turned the country into a launchpad for aggression against Iran.
Kuwait’s rulers bear responsibility: by hosting American forces and allowing their soil to be used against Tehran, they have invited retaliation and placed their own infrastructure in the line of fire. This is not “collateral damage” — it is the direct consequence of surrendering sovereignty to Washington’s war machine.
@observer_5
🚨 Iran Suspends All Commitments Toward the United States
🔴 The News:
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi announced that Tehran has suspended the implementation of all commitments under the Memorandum of Understanding signed in Islamabad. He stated that the United States had already violated all of its obligations and halted its own implementation first, prompting Iran to do the same.
🔍 What Does This Mean?
The announcement marks the effective suspension of the bilateral Memorandum of Understanding and signals that Iran has shifted its priority toward national defense amid the current escalation. Tehran maintains that its obligations will remain suspended as long as Washington continues to disregard the agreement.
@observer_5
🔴 The News:
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi announced that Tehran has suspended the implementation of all commitments under the Memorandum of Understanding signed in Islamabad. He stated that the United States had already violated all of its obligations and halted its own implementation first, prompting Iran to do the same.
🔍 What Does This Mean?
The announcement marks the effective suspension of the bilateral Memorandum of Understanding and signals that Iran has shifted its priority toward national defense amid the current escalation. Tehran maintains that its obligations will remain suspended as long as Washington continues to disregard the agreement.
@observer_5
🔴🌍 Official Iranian Media:
A message from Supreme Leader Seyyed Mojtaba Ali Hosseini Khamenei will be released shortly.
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A message from Supreme Leader Seyyed Mojtaba Ali Hosseini Khamenei will be released shortly.
@observer_5
🚨🌍 Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei:
🔺 The violation of the Memorandum of Understanding has once again proven that the signature of the President of the United States carries neither value nor credibility. The Iranian people have unforgettable lessons in store for the American enemy.
🔺 Coinciding with this epic and the funeral procession of the Martyr of Iran, the repeated breach by the Great Satan of its commitments under the Memorandum of Understanding signed between the presidents of Iran and the United States has once again demonstrated to the world that the signature of the U.S. President is worthless and unreliable, and that domination, hegemonic ambitions, and brutality are inseparable elements of the American approach and doctrine.
🔺 Today, the “Great Satan” has once again revealed its true face without a mask. This dark episode of crimes and broken promises stands as yet another enduring proof of the United States’ falsehood, irrationality, untrustworthiness, and malice.
🔺 Now, as the American enemy seeks to ignite more wars at the cost of even greater losses and deeper humiliation, it should know that the noble Iranian people and the Axis of Resistance have unforgettable lessons prepared for it. The heroism of the Mujahideen of Islam and the courage of the brave sons of the southern region in recent days have already demonstrated examples of those lessons.
@observer_5
🔺 The violation of the Memorandum of Understanding has once again proven that the signature of the President of the United States carries neither value nor credibility. The Iranian people have unforgettable lessons in store for the American enemy.
🔺 Coinciding with this epic and the funeral procession of the Martyr of Iran, the repeated breach by the Great Satan of its commitments under the Memorandum of Understanding signed between the presidents of Iran and the United States has once again demonstrated to the world that the signature of the U.S. President is worthless and unreliable, and that domination, hegemonic ambitions, and brutality are inseparable elements of the American approach and doctrine.
🔺 Today, the “Great Satan” has once again revealed its true face without a mask. This dark episode of crimes and broken promises stands as yet another enduring proof of the United States’ falsehood, irrationality, untrustworthiness, and malice.
🔺 Now, as the American enemy seeks to ignite more wars at the cost of even greater losses and deeper humiliation, it should know that the noble Iranian people and the Axis of Resistance have unforgettable lessons prepared for it. The heroism of the Mujahideen of Islam and the courage of the brave sons of the southern region in recent days have already demonstrated examples of those lessons.
@observer_5
📝 Statement by the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei, on the Great Epic of the Funeral Procession for the Beloved Martyr of Iran and Imam of the Oppressed, and on Key National Issues
In the Name of God, the Most Compassionate, the Most Merciful
O great Iranian nation, creator of miracles!
🔸 Peace, greetings, and gratitude to you. Through your unique and historic epic in the unprecedented nationwide farewell to the martyred Leader of Iran, you demonstrated a new level of commitment to the mission and steadfast will of the Iranian-Islamic identity—expressing gratitude, loyalty, insight, and profound love for the martyred Leader of the Islamic Ummah and Leader of the Islamic Revolution. The burning hearts, tearful eyes, and unwavering determination of the tens of millions who filled the streets across dozens of kilometers in Tehran, Qom, Mashhad, and cities and villages throughout the country earned the admiration of the friends of the Iranian nation and all free people of the world, while leaving the arrogant enemies of Iran bewildered, astonished, enraged, and fearful.
⏺️ At the same time, the repeated violation by the Great Satan of its commitments under the Memorandum of Understanding signed by the Presidents of Iran and the United States has once again demonstrated to all that the signature of the American President is worthless and devoid of credibility, and that arrogance, domination, and brutality are inseparable elements of the American approach and conduct. Today, the Great Satan has once again revealed its true face without a mask. This dark episode of criminality and broken promises stands as further irrefutable evidence of America’s falsehood, irrationality, unreliability, and malice. Now, as the American enemy seeks to ignite the flames of war—at the cost of greater losses and deeper humiliation—it should know that the noble Iranian people and the Axis of Resistance have unforgettable lessons in store. The courage of the Mujahideen of Islam and the valor of the brave people of the southern region in recent days have already provided examples of those lessons.
▪️ I must also say to you, the loyal and proud Iranian people, that among the most fundamental priorities at this stage is preserving unity of purpose and sacred national solidarity at every level—among the people and officials alike, and across all fields—in order to realize the lofty aspirations of the Islamic Revolution and safeguard the dignity and independence of beloved Iran, particularly in confronting the criminal and deceitful American enemy. As has been emphasized and warned repeatedly in the past, preserving unity and avoiding division, political discord, and the exaggeration of social differences is a duty incumbent upon everyone. Naturally, the role of devoted officials and sincere cadres who are committed to the Revolution, the Imam, and the martyred Leader in strengthening national cohesion and unity is of the greatest importance and sensitivity.
⏺️ Accordingly, by continuing to place its trust in the sincere officials serving in the three branches of government—whose efforts are dedicated to the welfare and prosperity of the people—the beloved nation will remain vigilant and actively engaged in safeguarding the interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Some individuals may sincerely criticize the performance of certain officials out of genuine concern and devotion. In my view, while such concern for the system is, like those who express it, a valuable asset and worthy in itself, these respected individuals—many of whom are among the most insightful members of society—must be cautious. First, they must ensure that such criticism does not result in injustice toward an innocent person, for that would deprive society of divine blessings and grace. Second, they must ensure that it does not create cracks in national unity and social cohesion. When these considerations are observed, criticism becomes a driving force for progress and improvement.
In the Name of God, the Most Compassionate, the Most Merciful
O great Iranian nation, creator of miracles!
🔸 Peace, greetings, and gratitude to you. Through your unique and historic epic in the unprecedented nationwide farewell to the martyred Leader of Iran, you demonstrated a new level of commitment to the mission and steadfast will of the Iranian-Islamic identity—expressing gratitude, loyalty, insight, and profound love for the martyred Leader of the Islamic Ummah and Leader of the Islamic Revolution. The burning hearts, tearful eyes, and unwavering determination of the tens of millions who filled the streets across dozens of kilometers in Tehran, Qom, Mashhad, and cities and villages throughout the country earned the admiration of the friends of the Iranian nation and all free people of the world, while leaving the arrogant enemies of Iran bewildered, astonished, enraged, and fearful.
⏺️ At the same time, the repeated violation by the Great Satan of its commitments under the Memorandum of Understanding signed by the Presidents of Iran and the United States has once again demonstrated to all that the signature of the American President is worthless and devoid of credibility, and that arrogance, domination, and brutality are inseparable elements of the American approach and conduct. Today, the Great Satan has once again revealed its true face without a mask. This dark episode of criminality and broken promises stands as further irrefutable evidence of America’s falsehood, irrationality, unreliability, and malice. Now, as the American enemy seeks to ignite the flames of war—at the cost of greater losses and deeper humiliation—it should know that the noble Iranian people and the Axis of Resistance have unforgettable lessons in store. The courage of the Mujahideen of Islam and the valor of the brave people of the southern region in recent days have already provided examples of those lessons.
▪️ I must also say to you, the loyal and proud Iranian people, that among the most fundamental priorities at this stage is preserving unity of purpose and sacred national solidarity at every level—among the people and officials alike, and across all fields—in order to realize the lofty aspirations of the Islamic Revolution and safeguard the dignity and independence of beloved Iran, particularly in confronting the criminal and deceitful American enemy. As has been emphasized and warned repeatedly in the past, preserving unity and avoiding division, political discord, and the exaggeration of social differences is a duty incumbent upon everyone. Naturally, the role of devoted officials and sincere cadres who are committed to the Revolution, the Imam, and the martyred Leader in strengthening national cohesion and unity is of the greatest importance and sensitivity.
⏺️ Accordingly, by continuing to place its trust in the sincere officials serving in the three branches of government—whose efforts are dedicated to the welfare and prosperity of the people—the beloved nation will remain vigilant and actively engaged in safeguarding the interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Some individuals may sincerely criticize the performance of certain officials out of genuine concern and devotion. In my view, while such concern for the system is, like those who express it, a valuable asset and worthy in itself, these respected individuals—many of whom are among the most insightful members of society—must be cautious. First, they must ensure that such criticism does not result in injustice toward an innocent person, for that would deprive society of divine blessings and grace. Second, they must ensure that it does not create cracks in national unity and social cohesion. When these considerations are observed, criticism becomes a driving force for progress and improvement.
The enemy must never receive from us any sign of weakness—including this kind of weakness. If we adhere to these principles with complete care and precision, the enemy will have no path before it except defeat.
▪️ Once again, I extend my deepest gratitude and appreciation to every member of our beloved nation, who themselves mourn the martyred Father of the Nation and who, despite hardships, restrictions, and difficulties, created a historic epic during this great farewell to the martyred Leader of Iran. I also thank the Grand Maraji’ of Taqlid, the scholars, intellectuals, elites, and activists in the cultural, social, and political spheres. I likewise express my appreciation for the efforts and achievements of the country’s civilian and military institutions, as well as the presence of the officials and representatives of the proud Axis of Resistance and the representatives of the noble Islamic movements. We pray that all those who participated, stood in solidarity, and contributed in any way to this historic epic may be blessed with the special grace and prayers of our Master, the Imam al-Mahdi (may God hasten his reappearance).
✍ Seyyed Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei
17 July 2026
▪️ Once again, I extend my deepest gratitude and appreciation to every member of our beloved nation, who themselves mourn the martyred Father of the Nation and who, despite hardships, restrictions, and difficulties, created a historic epic during this great farewell to the martyred Leader of Iran. I also thank the Grand Maraji’ of Taqlid, the scholars, intellectuals, elites, and activists in the cultural, social, and political spheres. I likewise express my appreciation for the efforts and achievements of the country’s civilian and military institutions, as well as the presence of the officials and representatives of the proud Axis of Resistance and the representatives of the noble Islamic movements. We pray that all those who participated, stood in solidarity, and contributed in any way to this historic epic may be blessed with the special grace and prayers of our Master, the Imam al-Mahdi (may God hasten his reappearance).
✍ Seyyed Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei
17 July 2026
🔴 "Fox News":
13 American soldiers were injured in the Iranian attacks in the region during the past week.
@observer_5
13 American soldiers were injured in the Iranian attacks in the region during the past week.
@observer_5
The Observer
🔴 "Fox News": 13 American soldiers were injured in the Iranian attacks in the region during the past week. @observer_5
🇺🇸/🇮🇷/🇯🇴 NEW:
A former USAF pilot close to CENTCOM claims that at least 3-5 more soldiers aboard the medical evacuation flights will ‘probably not make it’
There are 15 more soldiers with life-threatening, very severe injuries whose fate is also still unclear.
@observer_5
A former USAF pilot close to CENTCOM claims that at least 3-5 more soldiers aboard the medical evacuation flights will ‘probably not make it’
There are 15 more soldiers with life-threatening, very severe injuries whose fate is also still unclear.
@observer_5
The Observer
🇺🇸/🇮🇷/🇯🇴 NEW: A former USAF pilot close to CENTCOM claims that at least 3-5 more soldiers aboard the medical evacuation flights will ‘probably not make it’ There are 15 more soldiers with life-threatening, very severe injuries whose fate is also still unclear.…
🔴NOTE:
One American soldier is still missing; this means he is ‘vaporized’ and his remains cannot be located.
@observer_5
One American soldier is still missing; this means he is ‘vaporized’ and his remains cannot be located.
@observer_5
🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡US attacks on Iran have begun, airstrikes struck Sirik, southern Iran.
And …
- Israeli Channel 15 (i24 News).
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And …
"Israel's defense establishment is preparing for the possibility of a major escalation across the entire region,"
- Israeli Channel 15 (i24 News).
@observer_5
🔴 CENTCOM’s Desperate Attrition: 8 Nights of Posturing Fails to Shift Strategic Balance
The Announcement
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced it conducted another round of airstrikes against Iran on July 18 at 11:30 p.m. ET. Marking the eighth consecutive night of operations, Washington targeted Iranian coastal surveillance, air defense facilities, maritime assets, and missile/drone storage sites. CENTCOM explicitly stated the strikes were a response to Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) actions against U.S. forces in Jordan on July 17.
Intelligence & Geopolitical Analysis
Failure of U.S. Deterrence: The fact that the U.S. has been forced into an eighth consecutive night of strikes proves its initial operations failed to establish deterrence. The Axis of Resistance maintains operational initiative, as evidenced by the successful July 17 strike in Jordan penetrating American defenses despite ongoing U.S. aerial dominance.
The Announcement
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced it conducted another round of airstrikes against Iran on July 18 at 11:30 p.m. ET. Marking the eighth consecutive night of operations, Washington targeted Iranian coastal surveillance, air defense facilities, maritime assets, and missile/drone storage sites. CENTCOM explicitly stated the strikes were a response to Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) actions against U.S. forces in Jordan on July 17.
Intelligence & Geopolitical Analysis
Failure of U.S. Deterrence: The fact that the U.S. has been forced into an eighth consecutive night of strikes proves its initial operations failed to establish deterrence. The Axis of Resistance maintains operational initiative, as evidenced by the successful July 17 strike in Jordan penetrating American defenses despite ongoing U.S. aerial dominance.
Fixed Targets vs. Asymmetric Resilience: CENTCOM's focus on static coastal infrastructure and known storage sites indicates a lack of actionable intelligence on Iran’s deeply embedded, decentralized, and mobile strategic assets. This tier-one infrastructure is heavily redundant, meaning the strikes yield diminishing tactical returns.
The 50,000 Troop Liability: By boasting about 50,000 personnel deployed in the region, Washington highlights its own vulnerability. These forces are distributed across static bases well within the reach of the Axis's multi-front missile and drone envelope, converting a supposed power projection asset into 50,000 potential hostages to escalation.
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The 50,000 Troop Liability: By boasting about 50,000 personnel deployed in the region, Washington highlights its own vulnerability. These forces are distributed across static bases well within the reach of the Axis's multi-front missile and drone envelope, converting a supposed power projection asset into 50,000 potential hostages to escalation.
@observer_5
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⚡️ Operation Thunderbolt XVI: Iranian Drones Strike Key U.S. Bases in Kuwait
The Announcement
The Iranian Army has announced the execution of Phase 16 of "Operation Thunderbolt" (Sa'eqah). Utilizing a large swarm of suicide drones, the operation directly targeted two major U.S. military installations in Kuwait.
According to the statement, the strikes successfully hit an ammunition depot belonging to U.S. forces at Camp Udairi, alongside a Patriot radar system and an aerial surveillance radar at Ali Al Salem Air Base. The Iranian military declared that this operation comes in direct retaliation for continuous aggressions, civilian casualties, and the targeting of bridges, infrastructure, and non-military sectors.
@observer_5
The Announcement
The Iranian Army has announced the execution of Phase 16 of "Operation Thunderbolt" (Sa'eqah). Utilizing a large swarm of suicide drones, the operation directly targeted two major U.S. military installations in Kuwait.
According to the statement, the strikes successfully hit an ammunition depot belonging to U.S. forces at Camp Udairi, alongside a Patriot radar system and an aerial surveillance radar at Ali Al Salem Air Base. The Iranian military declared that this operation comes in direct retaliation for continuous aggressions, civilian casualties, and the targeting of bridges, infrastructure, and non-military sectors.
@observer_5
⚡️ Hormuz Chokepoint Crisis: Trump Issues 48-Hour Kinetic Ultimatum to Tehran
The White House has issued a strict 48-hour ultimatum to Iranian leadership, warning that the
unless Tehran immediately lifts its operational blockade on the Strait of Hormuz and accepts a revised security framework.
Key Intelligence Takeaways:
Kinetic Escalation: The warning follows joint U.S.-Israeli precision airstrikes targeting domestic command nodes and energy infrastructure in Tehran, Qom, Ahvaz, and the Asaluyeh petrochemical hub.
Command Neutralized: Tehran has declared a domestic military "Red Alert" following the targeted killing of IRGC Intelligence Chief Major General Seyyed Majid Khademi.
Diplomatic Deadlock: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi formally rejected a 45-day regional ceasefire proposal, demanding a permanent cessation of Western and Israeli aggression before any talks.
The White House has issued a strict 48-hour ultimatum to Iranian leadership, warning that the
"gates of hell will open"
unless Tehran immediately lifts its operational blockade on the Strait of Hormuz and accepts a revised security framework.
Key Intelligence Takeaways:
Kinetic Escalation: The warning follows joint U.S.-Israeli precision airstrikes targeting domestic command nodes and energy infrastructure in Tehran, Qom, Ahvaz, and the Asaluyeh petrochemical hub.
Command Neutralized: Tehran has declared a domestic military "Red Alert" following the targeted killing of IRGC Intelligence Chief Major General Seyyed Majid Khademi.
Diplomatic Deadlock: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi formally rejected a 45-day regional ceasefire proposal, demanding a permanent cessation of Western and Israeli aggression before any talks.