🔴 THE CEASEFIRE IS DEAD: Tehran Rewrites the Rules of Engagement ( Part 2)
Retaliatory Strikes: Locations and Timeline
Following major U.S. airstrikes inside Iranian territory on July 11, the Islamic Republic launched a synchronized wave of missile and drone salvos. The tracking data from early morning hours on Sunday, July 12, 2026, isolates the targets into clear geographical sectors:
Jordan: Direct ballistic missile and kamikaze drone strikes hit the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base (Azraq) and Prince Hassan Air Base. Jordanian air defenses intercepted at least 5 to 8 projectiles.
Bahrain: Multiple drone salvos targeted U.S. Naval Forces Central Command / Fifth Fleet infrastructure.
Kuwait: U.S. logistical footprints at Ali Al Salem Air Base and Camp Arifjan were targeted via regional proxy assets.
Qatar: Missiles targeted perimeter assets near Al Udeid Air Base, aimed at disrupting U.S. forward command elements.
Oman & UAE: Combined drone strikes targeted coastal
Retaliatory Strikes: Locations and Timeline
Following major U.S. airstrikes inside Iranian territory on July 11, the Islamic Republic launched a synchronized wave of missile and drone salvos. The tracking data from early morning hours on Sunday, July 12, 2026, isolates the targets into clear geographical sectors:
Jordan: Direct ballistic missile and kamikaze drone strikes hit the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base (Azraq) and Prince Hassan Air Base. Jordanian air defenses intercepted at least 5 to 8 projectiles.
Bahrain: Multiple drone salvos targeted U.S. Naval Forces Central Command / Fifth Fleet infrastructure.
Kuwait: U.S. logistical footprints at Ali Al Salem Air Base and Camp Arifjan were targeted via regional proxy assets.
Qatar: Missiles targeted perimeter assets near Al Udeid Air Base, aimed at disrupting U.S. forward command elements.
Oman & UAE: Combined drone strikes targeted coastal
monitoring assets and maritime border areas.
The Catalyst: What Ignited the Attacks?
The immediate trigger was U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) launching massive pre-emptive and punitive airstrikes on July 11, hitting approximately 140 sovereign targets inside Iran (missile sites, naval assets, and air-defense radars).
From Tehran's perspective, this was a flagrant violation of the June 17 Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)—a fragile ceasefire that was supposed to guarantee a mutual freeze on hostilities. Iran contends that Washington weaponized the MOU to systematically degrade Iranian sovereign infrastructure, using host facilities in the Persian Gulf states to launch aggressive sorties into Iran. Iran's response is framed strictly under Article 51 of the UN Charter as defensive retaliation against both the primary aggressor (the U.S.) and the regional states acting as its logistical launchpads.
Military Analysis: Signs and Trajectories
1. The Shift from Allies to Direct State-on-State Attrition:
Tehran is no longer hiding behind regional allies to achieve plausible deniability. By directly striking sovereign space in Jordan and firing upon GCC states simultaneously, Iran is flashing a strategic warning: if a war starts, the entire geography hosting U.S. assets burns together.
2. Saturation vs. Interception Capacity:
The widespread geography of the strikes proves Iran's ability to coordinate multi-axis, synchronized long-range strikes. While Western-supplied integrated air defense networks (Patriot, THAAD) intercept a high percentage of incoming threats, the cost-to-kill ratio heavily favors Iran. Using $20,000 Shahed-series loitering munitions to deplete multi-million dollar interceptor stockpiles is an asymmetrical victory.
3. Strategic Outcome:
This escalation permanently shatters the June 17 MOU. It forces the Persian Gulf littoral states into an immediate crisis: they must either demand a halt to U.S. offensive operations from their soil or face sustained, direct ballistic bombardments that will cripple local oil infrastructure, logistics hubs, and global shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
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The Catalyst: What Ignited the Attacks?
The immediate trigger was U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) launching massive pre-emptive and punitive airstrikes on July 11, hitting approximately 140 sovereign targets inside Iran (missile sites, naval assets, and air-defense radars).
From Tehran's perspective, this was a flagrant violation of the June 17 Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)—a fragile ceasefire that was supposed to guarantee a mutual freeze on hostilities. Iran contends that Washington weaponized the MOU to systematically degrade Iranian sovereign infrastructure, using host facilities in the Persian Gulf states to launch aggressive sorties into Iran. Iran's response is framed strictly under Article 51 of the UN Charter as defensive retaliation against both the primary aggressor (the U.S.) and the regional states acting as its logistical launchpads.
Military Analysis: Signs and Trajectories
1. The Shift from Allies to Direct State-on-State Attrition:
Tehran is no longer hiding behind regional allies to achieve plausible deniability. By directly striking sovereign space in Jordan and firing upon GCC states simultaneously, Iran is flashing a strategic warning: if a war starts, the entire geography hosting U.S. assets burns together.
2. Saturation vs. Interception Capacity:
The widespread geography of the strikes proves Iran's ability to coordinate multi-axis, synchronized long-range strikes. While Western-supplied integrated air defense networks (Patriot, THAAD) intercept a high percentage of incoming threats, the cost-to-kill ratio heavily favors Iran. Using $20,000 Shahed-series loitering munitions to deplete multi-million dollar interceptor stockpiles is an asymmetrical victory.
3. Strategic Outcome:
This escalation permanently shatters the June 17 MOU. It forces the Persian Gulf littoral states into an immediate crisis: they must either demand a halt to U.S. offensive operations from their soil or face sustained, direct ballistic bombardments that will cripple local oil infrastructure, logistics hubs, and global shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
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Al-Muraqeb
The Observer | Geopolitical Intelligence & Analysis
In-depth geopolitical analysis, military intelligence, and strategic assessments.
Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi:
▪️Today, we are heading to Washington at the head of a government and economic delegation, determined to translate the strength of Iraqi-American relations into genuine economic and investment partnerships that will open broader horizons for cooperation in energy, technology, infrastructure, the digital economy, and financing partnerships.
▪️Our objective is clear: to attract investment, transfer expertise, diversify the economy, and create employment opportunities, thereby advancing Iraq’s development path and reinforcing its position as a reliable partner and an active contributor to the stability and prosperity of the region.
📌The implied meaning of the statement:
A repackaging of sovereign commitments under attractive economic labels, effectively placing Iraq under comprehensive strategic dependence:
▪️Today, we are heading to Washington at the head of a government and economic delegation, determined to translate the strength of Iraqi-American relations into genuine economic and investment partnerships that will open broader horizons for cooperation in energy, technology, infrastructure, the digital economy, and financing partnerships.
▪️Our objective is clear: to attract investment, transfer expertise, diversify the economy, and create employment opportunities, thereby advancing Iraq’s development path and reinforcing its position as a reliable partner and an active contributor to the stability and prosperity of the region.
📌The implied meaning of the statement:
A repackaging of sovereign commitments under attractive economic labels, effectively placing Iraq under comprehensive strategic dependence:
Energy partnerships = Supplying 500,000 barrels of oil per day to replenish the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve and help Washington mitigate potential disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz.
Digital economy = Opening Iraq’s digital infrastructure to Starlink, portrayed by critics as providing a platform for intelligence-gathering and surveillance.
Bottom line = Trading Iraq’s sovereign decision-making for guarantees of the government’s political survival under the American security umbrella.
Digital economy = Opening Iraq’s digital infrastructure to Starlink, portrayed by critics as providing a platform for intelligence-gathering and surveillance.
Bottom line = Trading Iraq’s sovereign decision-making for guarantees of the government’s political survival under the American security umbrella.
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🔴 Boroujerdi: Avenging the Blood of the Martyrs Is an Inevitable Duty; No Place Will Be Safe for Those Responsible for These Crimes
Alaeddin Boroujerdi, a member of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, affirmed that avenging the blood of the martyred commander and his companions is “an inevitable duty” from which there can be no retreat.
In strongly worded remarks, Boroujerdi issued a direct warning to former U.S. President Donald Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and what he described as their agents, stating:
Boroujerdi further asserted that the regimes he described as “treaty-violating and criminal” would find no safe haven, emphasizing that retribution would reach all those responsible. He added:
Alaeddin Boroujerdi, a member of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, affirmed that avenging the blood of the martyred commander and his companions is “an inevitable duty” from which there can be no retreat.
In strongly worded remarks, Boroujerdi issued a direct warning to former U.S. President Donald Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and what he described as their agents, stating:
“They should expect, at any moment, a retaliatory operation carried out by the free people of the world.”
Boroujerdi further asserted that the regimes he described as “treaty-violating and criminal” would find no safe haven, emphasizing that retribution would reach all those responsible. He added:
“No place in the world—including the White House—will be safe for these criminals.”
Nature of the Airstrikes: The Saudi aggression targeted the airport with a number of airstrikes in a desperate attempt to respond to the arrival of the aircraft and to try to prevent any movements aimed at ending the isolation imposed on the country.
Timing: The targeting came after the aircraft stopped at the airport for an hour and departed safely, confirming that the airstrikes were a direct response to the success of the blockade-breaking operation.
Timing: The targeting came after the aircraft stopped at the airport for an hour and departed safely, confirming that the airstrikes were a direct response to the success of the blockade-breaking operation.
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🚨 URGENT: Saudi aggression targets Sana'a airport in response to breaking the blockade with the arrival of a second Iranian aircraft
📍 Yemen - Sana'a
In a new aggressive move reflecting a state of confusion, Saudi aggression aviation launched a series of airstrikes this morning targeting Sana'a International Airport, following the successful breaking of the unjust blockade imposed on the Yemeni people.
Breaking the Blockade: This morning, Sana'a International Airport recorded the landing of an Iranian "Mahan Air" passenger plane, marking the second flight of its kind within the framework of efforts aimed at breaking the suffocating blockade imposed on Yemen.
📍 Yemen - Sana'a
In a new aggressive move reflecting a state of confusion, Saudi aggression aviation launched a series of airstrikes this morning targeting Sana'a International Airport, following the successful breaking of the unjust blockade imposed on the Yemeni people.
Breaking the Blockade: This morning, Sana'a International Airport recorded the landing of an Iranian "Mahan Air" passenger plane, marking the second flight of its kind within the framework of efforts aimed at breaking the suffocating blockade imposed on Yemen.
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🚨 Three sites in the city of Abadan targeted in an attack by the American enemy
📍 Iran – Khuzestan
Iran’s Mehr News Agency reported that an airstrike targeted the city of Abadan in southwestern Iran on Monday afternoon.
The Deputy Governor of Khuzestan for Security and Police Affairs stated that the “U.S. military” carried out an attack at 13:45 Iran time, striking three separate locations inside the city.
According to the Iranian official, the initial toll indicates that two people were killed and three other civilians were injured with varying degrees of severity.
Local authorities confirmed that they are currently assessing the material and human losses resulting from the strike, with an official statement containing further details to be issued later.
📍 Iran – Khuzestan
Iran’s Mehr News Agency reported that an airstrike targeted the city of Abadan in southwestern Iran on Monday afternoon.
The Deputy Governor of Khuzestan for Security and Police Affairs stated that the “U.S. military” carried out an attack at 13:45 Iran time, striking three separate locations inside the city.
According to the Iranian official, the initial toll indicates that two people were killed and three other civilians were injured with varying degrees of severity.
Local authorities confirmed that they are currently assessing the material and human losses resulting from the strike, with an official statement containing further details to be issued later.
⚡️ FLASHPOINT LEBANON: Israeli Demolitions and Air Sorties Shatter Southern Border Cohesion
The following military actions and attacks by Israeli forces have been tracked and reported in Lebanon today, July 13, 2026:
Haddatha (Southern Sector): Lebanon's National News Agency (NNA) reported that the Israeli military continued deliberate ground operations, including demolishing and burning residential structures inside the southern border town.
Southern Lebanon Airspace: High-frequency surveillance and armed drone sorties have been heavily maintained across much of the southern sector, keeping forward positions under constant threat of kinetic engagement.
Border Artillery Exchanges: Intermittent artillery shelling targeted peripheral agricultural zones and open areas adjacent to the Blue Line to enforce security perimeters following the recent collapse of regional ceasefire understandings.
The following military actions and attacks by Israeli forces have been tracked and reported in Lebanon today, July 13, 2026:
Haddatha (Southern Sector): Lebanon's National News Agency (NNA) reported that the Israeli military continued deliberate ground operations, including demolishing and burning residential structures inside the southern border town.
Southern Lebanon Airspace: High-frequency surveillance and armed drone sorties have been heavily maintained across much of the southern sector, keeping forward positions under constant threat of kinetic engagement.
Border Artillery Exchanges: Intermittent artillery shelling targeted peripheral agricultural zones and open areas adjacent to the Blue Line to enforce security perimeters following the recent collapse of regional ceasefire understandings.
Incensed by this total failure and their inability to dictate terms to a sovereign nation, the Saudi aggression and its local lackeys immediately launched a wave of malicious airstrikes directly targeting the civilian runways of Sana'a International Airport.
This cowardly, unprovoked bombing of critical civilian infrastructure—coming an hour after the aircraft had already departed—is a textbook war crime.
The Director of Sana'a International Airport made it perfectly clear:
Riyadh and its proxies have officially reignited the flames, and they will bear the full, crushing consequences of this desperate aggression.
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This cowardly, unprovoked bombing of critical civilian infrastructure—coming an hour after the aircraft had already departed—is a textbook war crime.
The Director of Sana'a International Airport made it perfectly clear:
“The coalition of aggression has committed a massive error by targeting a civilian airport without any justification. This is a flagrant war crime.”
Riyadh and its proxies have officially reignited the flames, and they will bear the full, crushing consequences of this desperate aggression.
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🔴 BLOCKADE FORCE: Sana’a Runway Smashed to Stop Iranian Flight; Aircraft Forces Landing in Hodeidah
The de-escalation phase in Yemen has officially shattered. In a direct military move to halt the expanding Tehran-Sana'a air bridge, the Saudi-backed Yemeni military launched kinetic strikes targeting the runways of Sana’a International Airport this morning.
The explicit objective of the bombardment was to prevent a second sovereign Iranian Mahan Air flight from touching down in the capital.
However, Washington and Riyadh's calculation failed to halt the operation. Defying the kinetic interdiction, the Iranian aircraft rerouted and forced a successful landing at Hodeidah International Airport, safely delivering the Houthi delegation to Yemeni soil.
The de-escalation phase in Yemen has officially shattered. In a direct military move to halt the expanding Tehran-Sana'a air bridge, the Saudi-backed Yemeni military launched kinetic strikes targeting the runways of Sana’a International Airport this morning.
The explicit objective of the bombardment was to prevent a second sovereign Iranian Mahan Air flight from touching down in the capital.
However, Washington and Riyadh's calculation failed to halt the operation. Defying the kinetic interdiction, the Iranian aircraft rerouted and forced a successful landing at Hodeidah International Airport, safely delivering the Houthi delegation to Yemeni soil.
The political fallout is immediate. While the Yemeni Defense Ministry claims the strike was necessary to protect national airspace sovereignty, Sana'a officials have condemned the attack on a civilian airport as an unprovoked war crime. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree has issued an ultimatum, stating that this aggression
By attempting to physically seal the capital's skies, the coalition has instead re-opened a total theater of war, and the response from the Axis of Resistance will likely target deep within the aggressors' territories.
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"will not go unanswered or unpunished."
By attempting to physically seal the capital's skies, the coalition has instead re-opened a total theater of war, and the response from the Axis of Resistance will likely target deep within the aggressors' territories.
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The Observer
🔴 BLOCKADE FORCE: Sana’a Runway Smashed to Stop Iranian Flight; Aircraft Forces Landing in Hodeidah The de-escalation phase in Yemen has officially shattered. In a direct military move to halt the expanding Tehran-Sana'a air bridge, the Saudi-backed Yemeni…
⚡️ THE SANA’A-HODEIDAH INTERCEPT: Iran Defies Capital Air Raid to Force Red Sea Landing
⚡️ Chronological Breakdown (July 12–13, 2026)
July 12: Following a highly controversial first flight earlier this month, a second Iranian passenger aircraft (Mahan Air) departs Tehran bound for Yemen, carrying a Houthi delegation. Pro-Saudi forces issue strict diplomatic and security warnings against non-sanctioned flights bypassing official government air traffic control.
July 13 (Early Morning): As the Iranian aircraft approaches Houthi-controlled airspace, the internationally recognized Yemeni government’s military launches pre-emptive airstrikes smashing the runways at Sana'a International Airport to physically enforce the blockade and stop the landing.
July 13 (Morning): Denied access to Sana'a, the Iranian flight alters course and safely lands at Hodeidah International Airport. The delegation disembarks on the Red Sea coast. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree declares the Saudi-backed strike on Sana'a a definitive "end to the de-escalation phase" and vows harsh retaliation.
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⚡️ Chronological Breakdown (July 12–13, 2026)
July 12: Following a highly controversial first flight earlier this month, a second Iranian passenger aircraft (Mahan Air) departs Tehran bound for Yemen, carrying a Houthi delegation. Pro-Saudi forces issue strict diplomatic and security warnings against non-sanctioned flights bypassing official government air traffic control.
July 13 (Early Morning): As the Iranian aircraft approaches Houthi-controlled airspace, the internationally recognized Yemeni government’s military launches pre-emptive airstrikes smashing the runways at Sana'a International Airport to physically enforce the blockade and stop the landing.
July 13 (Morning): Denied access to Sana'a, the Iranian flight alters course and safely lands at Hodeidah International Airport. The delegation disembarks on the Red Sea coast. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree declares the Saudi-backed strike on Sana'a a definitive "end to the de-escalation phase" and vows harsh retaliation.
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❗️Trump Repeats His Confusion: Threatens to Control the Strait of Hormuz and Boasts of Killing “Khamenei”
In a series of contradictory statements, Donald Trump announced his plan to take control of the Strait of Hormuz, saying:
Speaking about Iran, Trump cited unusual figures, claiming that
referring to the dangers of holding the presidency. He then turned his criticism toward his political opponents, saying:
In a series of contradictory statements, Donald Trump announced his plan to take control of the Strait of Hormuz, saying:
“We will maintain the strait and manage it ourselves. We will become its guardians, and when we do that, we will be compensated for the service. We guarded the strait for 50 years and never received anything. We were guarding it for free, but now we will make money.”
Speaking about Iran, Trump cited unusual figures, claiming that
“5.2% of presidents are killed, and 8.5% are shot at,”
referring to the dangers of holding the presidency. He then turned his criticism toward his political opponents, saying:
“Obama sided with Iran and made them stronger. They became more powerful because of Obama and Biden, and Biden has nothing to say because he is stupid.”
Amid his harsh attacks on Iran, Trump described the country as a “bad group” and claimed that they are
after allegedly being only minutes away from obtaining a nuclear weapon. At the height of his confusion, Trump confidently stated without acknowledging his apparent mistake:
When asked about Iran’s attempts to rebuild its strength, Trump responded sharply:
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“taking hits right now”
after allegedly being only minutes away from obtaining a nuclear weapon. At the height of his confusion, Trump confidently stated without acknowledging his apparent mistake:
“I killed Khamenei, who was a brilliant and crazy general.”
When asked about Iran’s attempts to rebuild its strength, Trump responded sharply:
“They have no chance. We made them run away.”
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🔴 Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters Warns: No Permission for the U.S. to Intervene in the Strait of Hormuz, and Any Regional Cooperation with It Will Be Considered a Declaration of War
🔻The spokesperson for the Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters stated that Iran will never allow the United States to intervene in the management of the Strait of Hormuz under any circumstances.
🔻He stressed that Tehran will respond firmly to any attempt by the U.S. military to disrupt or undermine security along the routes used by commercial vessels and oil tankers, particularly if such movements take place outside designated shipping lanes or without authorization from the Iranian armed forces.
🔻The spokesperson for the Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters stated that Iran will never allow the United States to intervene in the management of the Strait of Hormuz under any circumstances.
🔻He stressed that Tehran will respond firmly to any attempt by the U.S. military to disrupt or undermine security along the routes used by commercial vessels and oil tankers, particularly if such movements take place outside designated shipping lanes or without authorization from the Iranian armed forces.
🔻In a related statement, the spokesperson issued a strong warning to regional leaders, saying that any cooperation or logistical support provided to the U.S. military would be classified as a hostile act against Iran’s sovereignty and national security.
🔻The spokesperson held the United States and countries cooperating with it fully responsible for any security deterioration or expansion of conflicts, warning that “any widening of the circle of war will set the entire region ablaze.”
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🔻The spokesperson held the United States and countries cooperating with it fully responsible for any security deterioration or expansion of conflicts, warning that “any widening of the circle of war will set the entire region ablaze.”
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