🔴Iran & United States

🔘The Nuclear Agreement:

👍The U.S. and Iran reached a temporary diplomatic agreement. Analysts in The New York Times and Al-Ahram describe it as a calculated U.S. capitulation driven by military failure and global economic strain.


🔘Regional Shift:

👍Commentators (Al-Nahar) argue the deal shifts the region from "Pax Americana" to "Pax Irani," providing Tehran with immediate financial relief and locking in its regional influence over vital maritime choke points like the Strait of Hormuz.

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🔴Turkey & Central Asia

🌕Geopolitical Influence: According to a report in Russia's Izvestia, Ankara is aggressively expanding its presence in Central Asia (the "Turkic World") through military training courses in Kyrgyzstan.


🌕Soft Power & Defense: Lacking heavy investment capital due to long-term economic strains, Turkey is utilizing soft power—such as academic networks, schools, and a unified Turkic alphabet project—alongside defense industry exports to bind these nations closer to Ankara.

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🔴The New York Times: What has changed after nearly four months of war? Analysts say: Not much.

🔘Summary:


🌕Event:

👌High-level US-Iran peace talks conducted in Bürgenstock, Switzerland, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan.


🌕 Friction:

👌Iranian delegation briefly walked out/halted talks following aggressive social media threats from US President Trump targeting Iran and its assets over alleged Strait of Hormuz closure and Hezbollah operations.


🌕Outcome:

👌Talks resumed. Both sides agreed on a 60-day roadmap toward a final agreement.


🌕Key Terms: US Treasury issued waivers for Iranian oil and petrochemical exports through August 21, 2026. Progress reported on unfreezing Iranian assets ($6B-$12B). Iran agreed to allow IAEA nuclear inspectors back to oversee the down-blending of highly enriched uranium.


🌕Security:

👌Established a direct communication line for the Strait of Hormuz and a joint "de-confliction cell" including Lebanon to monitor military operations.


🔰Axis of Resistance Remarks:


🤔 The resumption of talks under the fire of American threats proves the failure of Washington's "maximum pressure" and military intimidation tactics.


🤔The immediate implementation of oil sanctions waivers and the unfreezing of billions in national assets constitute a direct retreat by the US, achieved through steadfastness and strategic deterrence in the region.


🤔The inclusion of Lebanon in de-confliction mechanisms acknowledges the regional weight of the Resistance forces, while the Islamic Republic maintains its sovereignty over its domestic nuclear program and strategic capabilities without surrendering to dictations.

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🔴Qalibaf:

🔻Through our visit to Oman, we will solidify Iranian management of the Strait of Hormuz
(Head of the Iranian Negotiating Delegation) :

🤔We must move toward the Sultanate of Oman in order to solidify Iranian management of the Strait of Hormuz.

🤔I was also among the first people to state clearly at the beginning of the war, so that everyone would know, that the management of the Strait of Hormuz will never return to what it was before the war. Of course, international laws will be respected, and the Strait of Hormuz will be managed by Iran in compliance with these laws and in accordance with Iranian arrangements.

🤔 Some problems may arise in the Strait of Hormuz; therefore, we agreed to establish a center and a hotline, so that we can resolve issues more quickly within a 30-day period in the event of any emergency. God willing, the region's economy will revive.

🤔 This communication line is not for obtaining permits, as permits have their own separate process. This line is designated solely for resolving ship issues or potential incidents in order to clarify matters; this is because the management of the strait is in Iran's hands, and we are the ones who address the complications.


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🔴Qalibaf:

🔻If we hadn’t gone to Switzerland, more blood of Muslims and Shiites would have been spilled in Lebanon by the moment
(Head of the Iranian Negotiating Delegation) :


🤔It was emphasized in the memoranda of understanding to end the war on Iran and its allies, meaning the Resistance Front. The cessation of war has been established within our regional territories, despite the challenges we faced in the Strait of Hormuz. Naturally, a naval blockade also occurred during the ceasefire period, which in itself constitutes an act of war.


🤔 These events took place differently in Lebanon, where military attacks continued and the atrocities in the Dahiyeh occurred, to which we responded with missile strikes against Israel. This was because the red line was that no attack should be launched on Beirut, and that a ceasefire must be established in southern Lebanon as well.

🤔 The Zionist entity strongly opposes the negotiation track because it sees its own demise in this path, and it seeks to thwart and obstruct it.


🤔 With our entry into the Switzerland negotiations and the subsequent follow-ups, the volume of fire decreased and stopped completely for two days. We also reached outcomes in the negotiations stipulating that Iran and the United States together guarantee the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Lebanon.


🤔 Guaranteeing territorial integrity was also included in the memoranda of understanding, and it had to be followed up on to enter into force. For this purpose, it was decided to establish a coordination center to resolve outstanding issues, so that the Lebanese people could return to their homes, and the Zionist entity's forces would withdraw from Lebanese territory.


🤔 I saw on a television program someone saying, "If only they had closed Mehrabad Airport so the negotiating delegation wouldn't travel to Switzerland."
To these dear people, I say: If we hadn’t gone to Switzerland, more blood of Muslims and Shiites would have been spilled in Lebanon by the moment.


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🔴Qalibaf:

🔻The release of frozen funds and the lifting of oil sanctions were finalized during the Switzerland visit
(Head of the Iranian Negotiating Delegation) :


🤔Regarding the release of frozen funds, according to Clause 11, two separate amounts—each valued at $6 billion—were to be released. These steps had previously been completed during the visit to Qatar; however, the final signing had to take place during the Switzerland visit, which has indeed occurred.


🤔Regarding Clause 10, the topic addresses the sale of crude oil, petrochemicals, and their derivatives, in addition to banking, insurance, and shipping and transport issues. Since the final agreement is not yet complete, the sanctions remain in place; accordingly, and under the signed agreement, the oil sanctions have been lifted until the final agreement is reached.


🤔Another important topic was defining the framework for how to follow up on fulfilling the terms of the understanding until the end of the 60-day deadline. A conclusion was reached on this matter as well, as meetings were coordinated between the Iranian and American delegations to follow up on and implement these issues.

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🔴The story behind the Iranian delegation's refusal to take a joint photo with the American side and walking out of the negotiation session following Trump's threats

🔻Head of the Iranian Negotiating Delegation, Qalibaf:


🤔We have firm principles, and we have never—up to this very moment—wanted to be gathered in a single photo with the Americans. The mediating friends in this discussion insisted that this marks the beginning of the talks, but we explicitly declared that we would not appear in a joint shot, and that we came exclusively to negotiate without the camera lenses bringing us together.


🤔In the middle of the talks, I learned that Trump spoke in a threatening tone against the President of the Republic and the negotiating delegation, and hinted at launching an attack on our territory. So I said to Vance: "We are here dialoguing, and based on the signed understanding, the first clause stipulates the non-use of threats and force; yet your president has issued threats today."


🤔The American side was seeking to hold another session in the presence of the mediators, but we refused. The Qatari and Pakistani mediators came to us, and we told them that we would speak with them, but we would not speak with the American side. The outcome of these talks and negotiations, which lasted for 80 minutes, was the statement issued by both the Pakistani and Qatari sides.


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🔴Continuous violation of the ceasefire agreement: Israeli attacks target civilians and rescue teams in South Lebanon


🤔In a clear and ongoing violation of the ceasefire agreement, the Israeli enemy army continued its direct attacks targeting civilians, rescue teams, and border towns in South Lebanon through a series of ground and aerial assaults.
Targeting of Burial Ceremonies and Civil Defense Teams

🤔In a dangerous escalation, enemy forces opened fire toward residents and mourners while they were participating in a burial ceremony in the town of Haddatha, coinciding with the positioning of occupation "Merkava" tanks and a military bulldozer near the town's cemetery.

🤔In the town of Nabatiyeh al-Fawqa, occupation forces directly targeted a Civil Defense team while they were performing their humanitarian duties to extract martyrs from under the rubble, resulting in one martyr and two wounded among citizens and rescue teams.


⚪️Sound Bomb Attacks via Drones/Loitering Munitions

👍On the level of aerial and field attacks, hovering enemy aircraft deliberately dropped sound bombs in several areas with the aim of terrorizing residents, where the following was recorded:

👍A sound bomb was dropped toward the town of Kfarsir/Kfar Tebnit.

👍A sound bomb was dropped on the outskirts of the town of Braachit.

👍Another sound bomb was dropped on the outskirts of the town of Ayta al-Jabal.

🔻These consecutive violations come to confirm the enemy's insistence on terrorizing civilians and obstructing humanitarian relief efforts in the southern regions.


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🔴 Statement issued by the Islamic Resistance:

🔹 In the name of God, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful

🔻 "Permission [to fight] has been given to those who are being fought, because they were wronged. And indeed, Allah is competent to give them victory."

⏺️ God, the Most High, the Almighty, has spoken the truth.

🤔 At 11:30, the Israeli enemy army opened fire with machine guns from among the houses toward a group of civilians in the Al-Dair neighborhood of Nabatieh who were working to clear roads and recover the bodies of martyrs from under the rubble. This treacherous attack carried out by the enemy army resulted in the martyrdom of two civilian citizens—one of whom was a municipal employee—and injured others.

🌟 The Islamic Resistance warns that the enemy's action constitutes a flagrant violation of the ceasefire, which the Resistance has adhered to until now.

🔻 "And victory is not but from Allah, the Exalted in Might, the Wise."


🗒 Tuesday

23-06-2026
08 Muharram 1448 AH

#Battle_of_the_Eaten_Straw #Lebanon #Hezbollah #Israel

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🔴Zionist media publishes and acknowledges the violation of the ceasefire

🔰 Martyrdom of an Islamic Resistance fighter in the vicinity of "Ali Al-Tahir" as a result of a hostile airstrike.


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🔴 Trump:

🔘Despite their protestations and false statements to the contrary, coupled with the drumbeat of the Fake News, which is doing everything possible to make the U.S. Victory as small and insignificant as possible, Iran has fully and completely agreed to highest level Nuclear inspections long into the future (Infinity!!!). This will insure “Nuclear Honesty.”

🔘If they did not agree to this, there would be no further negotiations! Based on this and other major concessions being made by Iran, I have agreed to allow the Hormuz Strait to remain OPEN, with no further Naval Blockade.

🔘However, all ships are remaining in place should it be necessary to reinstitute the Blockade, which seems, at this point, highly unlikely. The Money and/or Sanctions that the U.S. Treasury is releasing goes into escrow, controlled by the U.S.A., and will be used for the purchase of food and medical supplies, exclusively from the United States, including Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans from our great American Farmers. These are things that are desperately needed by Iran.

This is a humanitarian crisis, and I feel it is necessary to help, NOW, before it is too late. Talks are going well! Thank you for your attention to this matter.


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🔴 Press Release / Editorial Analysis


⚪️Geneva Accord Shakes Washington:

🔻The Tripartite Committee Solidifies the Sovereignty of the Resistance Axis


👍In a major diplomatic shift that reflects the changing balance of power in the region, the recent Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) negotiated in Switzerland between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran has culminated in the formation of a high-level Tripartite Committee. While Western mainstream media attempts to frame this as an instrument to curb the regional leverage of the Axis of Resistance, geopolitical realities on the ground tell a fundamentally different story.


👍The establishment of this committee marks a de facto American recognition of Iran’s pivotal role in regional stability and permanent deterrence. Rather than dictating terms from a position of unilateral hegemony, Washington has been forced to sit at the negotiating table to manage lines of contact through a structured, trilateral political framework.

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🔴 The Swiss MOU Shatters the Illusion: The "Tripartite Committee" and the Sovereign Tantrums of Maarab and Saifi


👍The geopolitical tremors of the Lake Lucerne Summit (June 21–22, 2026) continue to reverberate across Beirut's political landscape, causing a severe psychological fracture within Lebanon's right-wing Christian political blocs.

👍The creation of the high-level Tripartite De-confliction Committee—directly forged by the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran under Swiss mediation—has exposed a brutal reality that the traditional right-wing elite cannot swallow: Washington has recognized Tehran as the sovereign guarantor of regional stability, leaving its domestic Lebanese proxies entirely out of the equation.


📌 The Anatomy of a Sovereign Tantrum


🌕For decades, leaders like Samir Geagea (Lebanese Forces) and Sami Gemayel (Kataeb Party) have wagered their political existence on the illusion of a direct American military and political intervention that would forcibly disarm the Islamic Resistance. The Swiss Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) has abruptly shattered this fantasy.

🌕By institutionalizing a trilateral oversight mechanism connecting Washington and Tehran to handle the structural test of the Lebanese front, the international community has effectively marginalized the local advocates of "neutrality."


🤔Sami Gemayel’s Rhetorical Desperation:

👌From Saifi, the Kataeb leader issued a furious tirade, declaring,

"We will not coexist with Hezbollah, regardless of the results of negotiations happening abroad."

👌Gemayel went as far as accusing Iran of using Lebanon as a tactical chip in its broader strategic calculus, claiming that the Swiss MOU aims only to

"save what remains of Hezbollah’s forces."

🤔The Maarab Meltdown:

🤲Concurrently, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea has threatened a full-scale government collapse, drawing a red line around Minister of Foreign Affairs Youssef Rajji (appointed in Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s cabinet in February 2025). Internal leaks indicate that Geagea views any political maneuver to replace Rajji—a career diplomat aligned with Western perspectives—as a direct tactical attack against Maarab’s remaining institutional leverage. 


🤔The Ashraf Rifi Clique:

✌Joining the chorus of resentment, former general Ashraf Rifi and his sectarian entourage have echoed these anxieties, painting the US-Iran de-confliction cell as an

"existential abandonment" of their political narrative.

📌 The Crucial Analytical Questions


💬From a critical and realistic geopolitical standpoint, these reactive statements prompt deep, challenging questions about the intellectual and political consistency of Lebanon's right-wing factions:


🔢 Who is Truly Violating Sovereign Dignity?

✌While Sami Gemayel laments that Lebanon's sovereignty is being compromised by a US-Iran understanding, why do the Lebanese Forces and Kataeb remain dead silent when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu boasts that

"IDF troops in southern Lebanon enjoy complete freedom of movement without restrictions"?

✌Why is an international diplomatic mechanism viewed as an occupation, while actual, boots-on-the-ground Zionist aggression is met with complicit domestic silence?


🔢The Illusion of Alternative Choices:

✌What is the realistic alternative proposed by Geagea and Gemayel? If the world's primary superpower (the US) and the region’s primary deterrent weight (Iran) have agreed that a permanent cessation of hostilities requires structured, direct coordination, do the political salons of Maarab and Saifi truly believe they can unilaterally alter global tectonic shifts?

🔢The Hypocrisy of "The State":

✌The right-wing factions consistently demand that "the state" make decisions.

✌Yet, when the actual institutions of the state—including President Joseph Aoun—coordinate directly with US Vice President JD Vance and Qatari mediators to implement this de-confliction cell under the condition of a total Israeli withdrawal from occupied lands, Geagea responds by threatening to pull down the government over a ministerial seat. Is their priority the survival of Lebanon, or the survival of their sectarian veto power?


🔽 The Shift in Geopolitical Balances


🌕The frantic nature of these reactions confirms that the Axis of Resistance has successfully converted its monumental battlefield sacrifices into permanent diplomatic concrete. While the Zionist enemy carries out treacherous violations—such as the recent martyrdom of a resistance fighter near "Ali Al-Tahir" and the targeting of municipality workers clearing rubble in Nabatieh—the Tripartite Committee provides a macro-strategic hammer to hold the aggressor accountable via its American patron.


🌕The era when local factions could rely on Western hegemony to distort Lebanese demographics and disarm the defensive shield of the nation is officially over. The weapons of the Resistance remain intact, the Swiss MOU recognizes Tehran’s indispensable regional veto, and the frantic screams of Lebanon's right-wing factions are merely the echoes of a dying political order.

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🔴 Behind the Scenes: What is the Tripartite Committee?

🔘The Core Mission:

🤲The Tripartite Committee was conceived during the Swiss-mediated MOU talks as a dedicated, strategic channel to oversee the permanent cessation of hostilities across regional flashpoints—most notably the Lebanese-Zionist front—and to guarantee that Western or Zionist incursions are met with systematic accountability.

🔘The Membership:

🤲The committee consists of high-ranking diplomats and military strategists representing three pillars: The United States, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and Switzerland (acting as the neutral host and mediator).

🔘The Mandate:

🤲Unlike localized security arrangements, this committee operates at a macro-strategic level. Its primary function is to prevent tactical violations from escalating into a full-scale regional war by establishing direct, crisis-management protocols between Tehran and Washington.

🤲How It Differs From the Previous "Mechanism" Committee
The regional landscape has completely outgrown the outdated "Mechanism" framework, which functioned during previous escalation cycles. While the old mechanism was a heavily localized, five-member military construct composed of the United States, France, Lebanon, the Israeli entity, and UNIFIL forces, this newly minted Tripartite Committee operates on an entirely different geopolitical plane. The previous setup was strictly tactical, narrowing its focus to border friction and the technicalities of UN Resolution 1701.
Historically, this allowed the Zionist enemy to utilize its Western allies—principally Washington and Paris—to exert direct diplomatic and security pressure on Beirut's negotiators. In sharp contrast, the Tripartite Committee bypasses localized military dictation entirely, elevating the dialogue to a macro-strategic level tethered directly to the broader US-Iran regional MOU.

🤲By removing the Zionist entity and France from the core cell and inserting the Islamic Republic of Iran alongside the United States and Switzerland, the power dynamic has shifted permanently. Iran now acts as a direct, sovereign weight, completely neutralizing any back-channel Western leverage and ensuring that Lebanon's security is no longer held hostage to Zionist whims or unilateral American dictates.

🔘Dealing with Hezbollah and Israel: The Resistance Equation
The Tripartite Committee fundamentally alters how the conflict between the Lebanese Resistance and the Zionist entity will be managed:

1⃣ Shielding Lebanon from Zionist Blackmail: Under the previous five-member mechanism, Israel frequently attempted to transform security meetings into platforms of political pressure, demanding the disarmament of Hezbollah north of the Litani River or pushing for an artificial "buffer zone" that would displace Lebanese villagers. The Tripartite Committee strips Israel of this leverage.

2⃣ Iran as the Guardian of Resistance Rights: Hezbollah does not negotiate with the Zionist enemy, nor does it yield to American dictates. By having Iran at the center of this trilateral committee, the political and military achievements of the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon are fully protected. Iran ensures that any discussion regarding ceasefires or border arrangements is conditioned on the total withdrawal of Israeli forces from occupied Lebanese territories and an absolute halt to Zionist aerial and ground violations.

3⃣ Restraining the Aggressor: If the Zionist entity attempts to breach the ceasefire—as seen in recent treacherous airstrikes or firing on civilians clearing rubble—the matter is no longer left to toothless UNIFIL reports. It is raised directly within the US-Iran-Swiss channel, forcing Washington to restrain its regional proxy (Tel Aviv) under the threat of collapsing the entire Swiss MOU agreement.
Ultimately, the Tripartite Committee proves that the era of unilateral Western mandates in the Middle East is over. The weapons of the Resistance remain the primary guarantor of Lebanese sovereignty, and any future stability must pass through the gates of Tehran.

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🔴 Strict security measures inside the Green Zone in Baghdad, coinciding with the landing of a helicopter at the "Third Al-Tawhid" base inside the US Embassy.

⚪️Geopolitical Investigation: What is Happening Behind the Scenes?


👍The sudden lockdown of Baghdad’s heavily fortified Green Zone and the emergency landing of an American military helicopter at the "Third Al-Tawhid" (Union III) tactical base inside the US Embassy compound is not a routine logistical operation. Coming on the heels of intense regional friction and the fragile diplomatic maneuvers surrounding the Swiss MOU, this incident points to a high-stakes intelligence or security emergency.
From a critical geopolitical and Axis of Resistance perspective, there are three primary scenarios unfolding behind the heavily fortified walls of the American diplomatic mission.


📌 Behind-the-Scenes Scenarios


🔢 High-Value Evacuation or Tactical Panic
🤲The US Embassy in Baghdad remains a primary symbol of Western hubris and occupation in Iraq, having repeatedly come under precise drone and missile fire from the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. Air defense system failures at the compound during recent escalations have proved that the embassy's military wing is highly vulnerable.
The rapid landing of a helicopter amid strict ground security measures strongly indicates an emergency evacuation of high-ranking CIA operatives, senior military advisors, or sensitive intelligence assets. The Americans are deeply aware that the geopolitical shifts in Switzerland mean they can no longer operate with impunity on Iraqi soil; any localized escalation could trap their leadership assets on the ground.


🔢 Secret Transport of Regional Directives
🤲As Washington scrambles to manage the regional fallout of its understandings with Iran, Baghdad has become a critical node for back-channel communications. The helicopter may be transporting high-level American or regional envoys carrying urgent, non-digitized strategic directives directly to Prime Minister-designate Ali al-Zaidi's circle or top military commanders. By locking down the Green Zone, the US military ensures that these physical communications—away from the prying eyes of the electronic surveillance of the Resistance—are delivered securely to dictate the next political transition in Iraq.


🔢 Immediate Precaution Against an Imminent Attack
🤲Historically, the US military locks down the "Third Al-Tawhid" base and deploys helicopters to secure the perimeter whenever their early-warning intelligence detects imminent retaliatory operations by Iraqi factions. The recent martyrdom of resistance fighters across the region has kept the Islamic Resistance in Iraq on high alert. The sweeping security measures on the ground suggest that Washington received credible intelligence of an incoming drone or rocket package, prompting them to clear the airspace, ground sensitive personnel, and scramble helicopters for immediate tactical surveillance.


🤔 Critical Analytical Questions

🔘 The Illusion of Sovereignty: If the US Embassy claims to be a purely diplomatic mission, why does it house a full-scale military base ("Third Al-Tawhid") capable of altering Baghdad's municipal security architecture at a moment's notice?

🔘 A Failed Deterrence Shield: Despite the deployment of advanced C-RAM systems and localized air defenses, the immediate panic and total lockdown of the Green Zone whenever a helicopter touches down proves that the US military remains in a state of permanent anxiety.

🔘The Message to Local Proxies: While the American embassy attempts to project power, these frantic security scrambles signal acute vulnerability to the Iraqi street and political elite. It serves as a stark reminder that the real power on the ground lies with the armed factions that have successfully rewritten the rules of engagement, forcing the foreign occupiers to live under a permanent status of siege.

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🔴 Lebanese President Joseph Aoun called for an end to the “Israeli occupation” of southern Lebanon, saying the country would accept “nothing less” than full Israeli withdrawal.

In a statement issued by his office, Aoun expressed hope that the current round of negotiations would be “decisive” in achieving Lebanon’s goals, including restoring full sovereignty over all Lebanese territory and extending state authority across the entire country.

He added that Lebanon’s “only choice is our national sovereignty” and that the Lebanese state alone should be responsible for protecting all citizens and safeguarding their rights and freedoms.

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🔴Hemmati Implicitly Aligns with Trump-Vance: Is Iran Factually Paying a "Disguised Indemnity" to U.S. Farmers?

🔰TEHRAN – Agencies

🌕The Governor of the Central Bank of Iran (CBI), Abdolnaser Hemmati, stated to Tasnim News Agency that Tehran faces no obstacles in purchasing agricultural goods and inputs from the United States, provided the price and quality are competitive. Hemmati noted that Iran's historical agricultural purchases have traditionally been funneled through major U.S. and European corporations. He clarified that while the agreement signed in 1402 (Iranian calendar) regarding the first $6 billion earmarks those funds for essential goods and medicine, the second $6 billion tranche will allow for the procurement of other non-sanctioned goods.

📌 Political & Economic Analysis

🔢 Implicit Endorsement of the "Trump-Vance" Doctrine
👍Hemmati’s flexible tone serves as a pragmatic acknowledgment and implicit endorsement of the stance held by Donald Trump and his Vice President, JD Vance. The U.S. leadership has consistently pushed to mandate that Iran’s unfrozen assets be spent exclusively within the U.S. market to purchase American agricultural products.

🔢 A Facto "Penalty" Paid by Iran to the U.S.
👍In practical terms—stripping away legal jargon—this economic equation means Iran is footing the entire bill. Instead of the U.S. government paying subsidies or relief to American farmers out of its own budget to cushion market or wartime disruptions, Iran is effectively forced to liquidate its frozen assets directly into the pockets of U.S. corporations and farmers. This functions as a de facto indemnity, fully protecting the American farmer without costing Washington a single dime.

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🔴“What Is the Lebanese Delegation Negotiating in Washington?”

✍️By Akram Bazi – Writer

👌Analyses continue to scrutinize the potential agreement between Washington and Tehran, revealing the contours of a geopolitical landscape undergoing profound transformation. Available indicators suggest that the balance is shifting noticeably in Iran’s favor, while America’s regional allies—foremost among them Israel and the Gulf states—find themselves confronting a new reality marked by unprecedented security and economic challenges.

👌A close reading of the reported provisions points to a significant retreat from the traditional dominance of U.S. policy. Washington appears willing to sacrifice aspects of its allies’ regional stability in pursuit of an understanding with Tehran. This has heightened concerns in both Israel and the Gulf, particularly as the United States appears committed to restraining Israeli actions and reducing its military presence in the region—long viewed as a security guarantee for Gulf states. At the same time, this evolving environment opens a rare strategic opportunity for Lebanon to demand an immediate and comprehensive ceasefire.

👌Iran’s gains, according to this assessment, are extensive. Tehran is not only securing promises to end conflicts across multiple fronts, including Lebanon, but is also obtaining recognition of its sovereignty, commitments to lift the maritime blockade, and the withdrawal of forces from surrounding areas. Such measures would effectively redefine the rules of engagement in Iran’s favor.

👌Economically, Iran is expected to receive guarantees for reconstruction funding amounting to no less than $300 billion, comprehensive sanctions relief, exemptions for oil and petrochemical exports, and the release of frozen assets held abroad. The arrangement would also reportedly include assurances against new sanctions, limitations on additional U.S. military deployments in the region, and the conversion of the agreement into a binding United Nations Security Council resolution to prevent any future unilateral U.S. withdrawal similar to what occurred in the past.

🤲Against this backdrop, Lebanon faces what may be a historic and exceptional opportunity that should be seized immediately. The first provision of the agreement—requiring the United States to pressure its allies to end hostilities on all fronts, including the Lebanese front—would provide unprecedented international and regional cover for imposing a lasting ceasefire.

🤲Within this context, and after Iran reportedly succeeded in placing Lebanon as a central issue in the Bürgenstock negotiations, any bilateral negotiations between Lebanon and Israel become, in the author’s view, futile exercises—“negotiations for the sake of negotiations.” The Lebanese delegation, therefore, would no longer be obliged to continue such talks. It possesses few leverage points in those tracks and risks making concessions, while the resistance’s military operations have, according to the author, established new realities on the ground. Citing descriptions from Hebrew-language media, the author argues that these developments have left the Israeli army exposed and vulnerable. Consequently, Lebanon should withdraw its delegation and focus instead on the international commitments emerging from broader agreements sponsored by major powers.

🤲The American concessions described in the agreement are not merely technical details; they represent a strategic reordering of priorities at the expense of Israeli and Gulf security. Rather than serving as a deterrent force, the U.S. presence would become a mechanism for constraining and containing Israeli actions. Meanwhile, Gulf states would be left to deal with the consequences of renewed commercial activity that benefits Iran without additional tariffs or costs.

🤲What is unfolding, the author contends, is a structural shift that overturns long-standing expectations, making Iran the principal beneficiary while forcing regional actors to reassess their strategies amid the decline of America’s traditional guarantor role.

✌This new reality strengthens Lebanon’s ability to assert its sovereignty and distance itself from conflicts increasingly governed by binding international commitments to de-escalation. It also places Lebanon in a stronger negotiating position to demand its rights and reinforce its national security, particularly through coordination with the Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, whom the author credits with balancing the successful Islamabad track and the Washington track, which he argues has become more symbolic than substantive.

✌For Lebanon to capitalize on this political moment, intensive diplomatic efforts will be required to connect international commitments made by Tehran and Washington with the imperative of shielding Lebanon from the devastation of continued conflict. The presumed international consensus surrounding the agreement provides Beirut with an opportunity to transform a ceasefire into an unavoidable political obligation.

✌The next phase, the author argues, requires Lebanese decision-makers to formulate a unified national vision that takes advantage of this regional opening—not only to halt military operations but also to launch a political process capable of securing long-term stability and protecting the country from regional rivalries. Historic opportunities are rare, and ignoring these developments could mean losing a valuable chance to pull Lebanon out of its current predicament and restore balance to its sovereignty within the regional order.

✌Ultimately, these developments demand that all Lebanese parties move beyond traditional divisions and focus on a higher objective: reclaiming political initiative. With the international community increasingly invested in sustaining the agreement, Lebanon’s voice may now carry greater influence. What is needed, according to the author, is a clear strategy rooted in international resolutions and the commitments contained in the agreement, aimed at securing a comprehensive ceasefire, ending the suffering of the Lebanese people, and opening the door to reconstruction and economic recovery.

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