🔴The Trojan Horse on the Aras: Azerbaijan’s Military Shift and the Encirclement of the Resistance


While the eyes of the world remain fixed on the Levant and the Red Sea, a silent but dangerous transformation is taking shape in the South Caucasus—one that signals a new era of looming threats. Azerbaijan, once seen merely as a post-Soviet energy node, is rapidly transforming into an advanced military outpost serving the forces seeking to dismantle the Axis of Resistance.

Under the banners of “energy diversification” and “protecting territorial sovereignty,” Baku is not merely purchasing weapons—it is building the industrial capacity to wage a long-term war. The new ammunition factories and joint ventures with Western and Israeli defense companies are not designed solely for internal defense. They are constructing a NATO-linked military infrastructure positioned directly on the northern border of the Islamic Republic of Iran.



The Iron Fist and the Zionist Connection

The driving force behind Baku’s militarization is its unholy alliance with Tel Aviv. For years, many observers dismissed this relationship as a basic transaction: Azerbaijani Caspian oil in exchange for advanced Israeli weapons. Today, this relationship has evolved into a far more dangerous strategic entanglement.

Israel imports roughly 40% of its crude oil from Azerbaijan—the very fuel that powers the tanks and jets leveling Gaza and Lebanon. In return, Tel Aviv has turned Azerbaijan into a testing ground and production hub for its most advanced weaponry. Joint ventures such as Caspian Meteor (a partnership with Israeli defense firms) now manufacture drones and precision munitions directly on Azerbaijani soil.

Why build factories instead of simply buying missiles? The answer is strategic depth. By establishing a domestic military-industrial complex, Tel Aviv creates a secure logistical hub beyond the reach of the Resistance’s missiles in the Levant, yet close enough to conduct intelligence and surveillance operations against Iran’s sensitive infrastructure.
Reports repeatedly indicate that Azerbaijani airfields have been used by foreign intelligence agencies to monitor—and potentially target—Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The Sectarian Paradox: Why Is Baku Turning West?

For those unfamiliar with the region’s history, Azerbaijan presents a theological puzzle: a Shi’a-majority nation that rejects the political values of the Axis of Resistance. Unlike populations in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen—who view faith as a mandate to confront imperial dominance—the ruling elite in Baku has embraced a rigid secularism inherited from the Soviet era and reinforced by Western capital.

The Aliyev administration views political Islam not as a shared heritage but as an existential threat to its dynastic rule. Thus, it has chosen to align with the Euro-Atlantic bloc. By suppressing religious movements (such as the Huseyniyyun) and labeling them “Iranian proxies,” Baku justifies its harsh security measures while simultaneously signaling loyalty to Washington and Brussels.
Its elite have effectively sold their geopolitical identity in exchange for being labeled the West’s “reliable partner” against Tehran and Moscow.



The Zangezur Corridor: A Dagger at the Border

The gravest current threat to regional stability is the so-called Zangezur Corridor. While Baku and Ankara market it as a commercial route connecting mainland Azerbaijan to the Nakhchivan exclave, its true geopolitical purpose is to sever the crucial artery linking Iran and Armenia.

If completed, the project would isolate Iran from the Black Sea and Russia, finalizing a NATO-backed encirclement of the Islamic Republic. This is not infrastructure—it is an economic and political blockade in disguise.



A Threat to Strategic Depth

Does Azerbaijan pose a threat to Iran and Iraq? Geography answers clearly: yes.
For the Axis of Resistance, Azerbaijan forms a northern front that drains attention and resources.

1. Intelligence Operations: The Azerbaijani border has become an open passage for Mossad activity, facilitating the infiltration of sabotage and assassination teams into Iranian territory.

2. Separatism as a Weapon: Western think tanks and Israeli strategists continuously push the idea of “South Azerbaijan” (Iran’s northern provinces) to fuel separatist tendencies and weaken Iran from within.

3. A Logistical Bridge: In the event of a wider regional war, Azerbaijani airspace could become a transit corridor for hostile air forces, bypassing the heavily fortified air defense systems of the Persian Gulf.

📌Conclusion

The factories rising today in Baku are not building tools of peace—they are forging a chain of constraints designed by Washington and Tel Aviv to encircle the Axis of Resistance. Ignoring the Caucasus is no longer an option.
The “Iron Fist” Baku boasts of is not meant only to secure its hold over Karabakh—it is being shaped into the imperial spearhead aimed at the heart of West Asia.

.

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴Book of the week :


Learn to gather and analyze publicly available data for your intelligence needs
In Deep Dive: Exploring the Real-world Value of Open Source Intelligence, veteran open-source intelligence analyst Rae Baker explains how to use publicly available data to advance your investigative OSINT skills and how your adversaries are most likely to use publicly accessible data against you.

The author delivers an authoritative introduction to the tradecraft utilized by open-source intelligence gathering specialists while offering real-life cases that highlight and underline the data collection and analysis processes and strategies you can implement immediately while hunting for open-source info. 

In addition to a wide breadth of essential OSINT subjects, you’ll also find detailed discussions on ethics, traditional OSINT topics like subject intelligence, organizational intelligence, image analysis, and more niche topics like maritime and IOT.

The book includes: 

1- Practical tips for new and intermediate analysts looking for concrete intelligence-gathering strategies

2- Methods for data analysis and collection relevant to today’s dynamic intelligence environment

3- Tools for protecting your own data and information against bad actors and potential adversaries

An essential resource for new intelligence analysts, Deep Dive: Exploring the Real-world Value of Open Source Intelligence is also a must-read for early-career and intermediate analysts, as well as intelligence teams seeking to improve the skills of their newest team members.


🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴Berri’s Envoy in Tehran: Heavy Messages in a Critical Lebanese Moment

Lebanese politics is moving these days to the rhythm of a noteworthy visit by MP Ali Hassan Khalil, the political aide to Speaker Nabih Berri, to Tehran. The visit did not pass unnoticed, especially as it came at a tense political moment amid growing talk of a rift within the Shiite duo—Amal Movement and Hezbollah.

In the Iranian capital, Khalil met with Ali Larijani, head of the Supreme National Security Council and the official tasked by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei with overseeing the Lebanese file, as well as Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and other senior officials. According to informed sources, the meetings were practical rather than ceremonial, with a clear focus on Lebanon’s trajectory in the coming months.



A Public Disagreement Between Amal and Hezbollah

The visit comes in the wake of an unprecedented divergence between the two parties over two key issues:

• The negotiation proposal supported by Speaker Berri and rejected by Hezbollah.

• The Egyptian initiative adopted by Berri and approved by the Lebanese state, while Hezbollah clearly rejected it.

Tensions increased further after Hezbollah sent a letter to the three top state officials, which some political circles described as “written with Iranian ink.” This prompted a corrective statement from the party reinstating Berri’s mandate over negotiation files in an attempt to contain the rift.



Why Tehran Now?

Prominent political sources describe the visit as “unusual in an unusual moment,” noting that Berri wanted to deliver a direct message to Iranian leadership:

“Lebanon can no longer endure; the situation is no longer sustainable.”

The sources highlight that although Berri is part of the Iranian axis, he still has the political margin to speak frankly with Tehran—unlike Hezbollah, which adheres strictly to Iranian directives and does not debate them. This makes the party less capable of conveying Lebanon’s reality as it truly is.



One Year After the Ceasefire… No Reconstruction, No Horizon

The visit comes just days before the first anniversary of the ceasefire in the South, against a bleak backdrop:

• No reconstruction.

• Continued Israeli bombardment.

• A suffocating siege on border villages.

• Israeli preparations for a new war “in various forms.”

Sources warn that any upcoming war would not strike “the party” alone, but the entire Shiite community—and possibly all of Lebanon—prompting Berri to sound the alarm.



What Did Berri’s Envoy Say in Tehran?

According to information circulating in political circles:

Khalil delivered a clear message:

“It is time to neutralize Lebanon. The country cannot withstand another war. A real exit strategy must be explored, including the future of Hezbollah’s weapons.”

Sources note that raising the ceiling in this way reflects the magnitude of fear within the Shiite community itself—fear of continued escalation and of Lebanon sliding into a confrontation that would break all red lines.

But the question remains: Is Tehran actually willing to change its approach?



Iran’s Calculations: A Risky Bet

Analysts suggest that Iran is still betting on:

• The possibility of opening negotiations with Washington at some point.

• The possibility that Israel may eventually be prepared to strike a deal related to the Lebanese front.

But sources close to decision-making circles in Beirut stress:

“Neither the Americans are coming, nor are the Israelis ready for any deal.”

If these assessments are correct, Iran’s continued reliance on this bet may push Lebanon toward a catastrophic scenario.

Conclusion: Lebanon at a Defining Crossroad

Khalil’s visit to Tehran was not a courtesy call. It was a clear attempt to pose a fateful question to Iranian leadership:

Can Lebanon be saved through de-escalation, or will the country remain a mailbox for regional conflicts?

The answer—still unclear—will determine:

• The future of the relationship between Amal and Hezbollah.

• Iran’s role in the Lebanese file.



🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

Ahmad Al-Hajjar, Lebanon’s Minister of Interior and Municipalities, discusses the Digital ID project at a time when concerns over data security and the protection of citizens’ information are on the rise.

🔴Digital Treason: How Our Data Became the Blueprint for Slaughter

👌The dust had barely settled on the ceasefire deal—a fragile paper shield meant to protect the exhausted people of South Lebanon—when the skies rained fire again. We are told peace was signed, yet we bury 400 more sons and daughters. These were not combatants in a trench; they were families in cars, fathers driving to work, mothers returning to broken homes.

⚪️How did the missiles find them with such terrifying precision in the quiet of a truce?

🫶The answer is not just in the skies; it is buried in the servers of our own government. We are facing a betrayal of biblical proportions, not by soldiers, but by suits in Beirut.

✌The accusation that has set the streets on fire is clear: Lebanese citizen data—phone numbers, bank records, driving licenses—has been sold to foreign agents, turning every smartphone into a homing beacon for the Zionist regime.

⚪️The Merchants of Secrets

👌For years, the Lebanese people have whispered about the porosity of their state, but recent reports allege a level of collaboration that borders on high treason. Critics and angry citizens are pointing fingers directly at the political elite, specifically citing former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and his circle.

🫶The allegation is simple and devastating: that under the guise of "security cooperation" or through sheer negligent corruption, the digital keys to the Lebanese population were handed over to American and, by extension, Israeli intelligence.

✌This is not just a breach of privacy; it is a breach of blood. When a government or its former heads treat the private data of their citizens as a commodity to be traded for political favor or foreign validation, they are not just selling numbers. They are selling the coordinates of their own people’s skulls. The 400 dead in the South are not just victims of war; they are victims of a transaction.


⚪️The AI Executioner: Lavender and The Gospel


✌This stolen data does not sit in a filing cabinet. It feeds the insatiable maw of Artificial Intelligence. We know now that the Israeli military operates systems like "The Gospel" and "Lavender"—AI platforms designed to process vast amounts of personal data to generate "kill lists."

🫶By feeding these machines the driving licenses and phone records allegedly sold by our own leaders, the enemy no longer needs a spy on every corner.

👌The AI analyzes movement patterns, social connections, and financial transactions to predict who to kill next. It turns a driving license into a death warrant. This is why cars are struck with such precision days after the fighting supposedly stopped. The algorithm does not recognize a ceasefire; it only recognizes the data it was fed.


⚪️A Regional Epidemic of Control

✌Tragically, Lebanon is not alone in this digital dystopia. The Arab world is plagued by regimes that view their citizens' data not as a trust, but as a weapon of control. We have seen how the "Pegasus" spyware, purchased by Gulf states like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, turned the phones of activists and journalists into 24/7 surveillance devices.

🫶And even in Iraq, during the time of elections, the data of Iraqis was handed over to a German company under the pretext of preventing fraud in the elections.

👌While some Arab governments use this tech to silence dissent at home, the situation in Lebanon is a darker variant: the data is not just being used to arrest; it is being exported to an enemy that uses it to incinerate. We are witnessing the "Snowden" nightmare realized in the Middle East, where our digital footprints are sold to the highest bidder, and the receipt is written in blood.

⚪️The Legal Vacuum

👌Legally, this is a war crime of a new era. Using civilian data to target non-combatants during a ceasefire violates the fundamental principles of distinction and proportionality under International Humanitarian Law (IHL). When data is used to target a "suspect" based on an AI probability score in a civilian car, the presumption of innocence is obliterated by a hellfire missile.
If these allegations against figures like Siniora hold true, we are looking at complicity in crimes against humanity. There is no statute of limitations for selling the safety of a nation.


📌Conclusion

✌We cannot fight missiles with stones, but we must fight the treason that guides them. The data of the Lebanese people is part of our national sovereignty. Those who sold it have not just committed a white-collar crime; they have painted a target on the back of every man, woman, and child in this country. We demand answers, we demand trials, and we demand that the digital borders of our nation be sealed before another 400 names are added to the list of the betrayed.

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

Future Scenario Analysis

Scenario 1: The Wall Succeeds and Stabilizes Western Iraq
Under this scenario, the barrier significantly reduces:
• Cross-border smuggling
• Terrorist infiltration
• Armed movement in the western desert

The result could be a more secure Anbar province and a long-term reduction in ISIS mobility.

Outcome: Enhanced domestic stability and space for economic reconstruction.



Scenario 2: Reduced Infiltration but Heightened Diplomatic Tension

Damascus—or the actors who control parts of the border—may view the wall as:
• A restriction on cross-border movement
• A barrier affecting tribal communities
• A symbolic distancing by Baghdad

Outcome: Manageable diplomatic friction, but no major rupture.



Scenario 3: Smuggling Routes Adapt and Mutate

History shows that walls rarely eliminate illicit activity; they push it into new forms:
• Mountain paths
• River routes
• Tunnel networks
• Corruption at checkpoints

Outcome: Initial drop in infiltration, followed by more sophisticated smuggling tactics.



Scenario 4: Total Syrian Fragmentation Intensifies

If the Syrian conflict enters a new phase of breakdown:
• Mass displacement toward the Iraqi border
• Movement of armed groups seeking safe haven
• Collapse of local governance in the east

Outcome:
The wall becomes Iraq’s primary defense line, transforming the western border into a semi-permanent military zone.



Scenario 5: A New Regional Security Architecture Emerges

The wall could evolve into a cornerstone for broader cooperation:
• Iraq, Jordan, and possibly Lebanon (if it builds its own barrier)
• Border data-sharing
• Joint anti-smuggling operations

In a post-war Syria, even Damascus could eventually join such a framework.

Outcome:
A new “Arab security belt” from the Mediterranean to the Euphrates.



Conclusion

Iraq’s border wall with Syria is more than a physical structure; it is a geopolitical statement.
It signals a shift in Iraq’s national security doctrine—from reactive defense to proactive containment.

The central question remains:
Can concrete and razor wire shield Iraq from the collapse of a neighboring state, or is this merely the beginning of a long regional struggle with no easy solutions?

The answer will depend not only on Baghdad’s resolve, but on the evolving fault lines of a fractured Middle East.

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

A photo released by the Turkistan Islamic Party in Syria shows its fighters standing in military formation in Idlib on September 28, 2024.

BETRAYAL IN DAMASCUS: HOW SHARAA SOLD SYRIA’S SOUL FOR AMERICAN SOYBEANS



This so- called revolution has been hijacked, stripping away any facade of liberation to reveal a grotesque bazaar of human lives and geopolitical favors. Ahmed Al-Sharaa, the man who swept into Damascus in December 2024 promising a "new era" after toppling Bashar al-Assad, has just proven he is nothing more than a different warlord in a sharper suit.


The formation of the 84th Division of the Syrian Army is not a security measure; it is a scandal. By formally integrating approximately 3,500 foreign fighters—largely Uyghurs from the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP)—into the state’s military apparatus, Sharaa has institutionalized mercenary warfare. These are not Syrian patriots; these are battle-hardened jihadists from China and Central Asia who have been rebranded as "state soldiers" with a stroke of a pen. And the most infuriating part? The United States didn’t just watch it happen; they greenlit the entire operation.


The Blood for Soybeans Swap


You want to know why the United States, the self-proclaimed champion of human rights, is silent while Sharaa packs his army with foreign extremists?

Look at the markets.


In November 2025, just days before Sharaa’s cozy photo-op at the White House, Washington and Beijing announced a massive trade breakthrough:

China committed to purchasing 12 to 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually through 2028. It is naive to think this "Soya Deal" is unconnected to the events in Damascus.

This is the dirty equation: The U.S. secures a multi-billion dollar lifeline for its farmers. In exchange, Beijing demands the heads of its enemies. Sharaa, playing the eager vassal, is the middleman. While his Foreign Minister, Asaad al-Shaibani, was in Beijing shaking hands last week, reports surfaced that Damascus intends to hand over roughly 400 Uyghur fighters to Chinese authorities in "batches."


Why would China want them back?

To make an example of them. Beijing views these fighters not just as terrorists, but as an existential separatist threat.

Sharaa is effectively selling these men—who fought for him when it was convenient—to secure his own political survival and keep the cash flowing from both Washington and Beijing.


A "Tool" for Trump's Wars


The betrayal doesn’t stop at the Chinese border. Sharaa’s visit to the Oval Office in mid-November 2025 was a humiliating spectacle of subservience. President Donald Trump, treating the Syrian leader like a junior employee, joked about "how many wives" Sharaa had, while Sharaa smiled and took it.


Why the submissiveness?

Because Sharaa has effectively applied for the job of regional hitman. He has signaled that he is willing to be Trump’s "tool" to dismantle Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The man who claimed to liberate Syria is now positioning his country as a launchpad for American and Israeli security interests, threatening to drag the region into yet another catastrophic conflict just to keep his seat in the presidential palace.


The Cost to the Syrian People


What harm have these mercenaries done? They have turned the Syrian cause into a foreign legion. The integration of the 84th Division erases the national identity of the Syrian army, replacing it with a force loyal only to Sharaa and his paymasters. It tells every Syrian citizen that their new government relies on imported muscle to maintain order, just as the previous dictator relied on foreign militias.


The Americans traded a tyrant who dropped barrels for a warlord who trades humans for soybeans. Sharaa has proven that in the "New Syria," everything is for sale—sovereignty, dignity, and even the soldiers who put him in power.

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴Lebanon’s Independence: From Superficial Sovereignty to the Struggle for True Existence

On November 22, 1943, the Lebanese Republic was born with independence from the French Mandate, carrying the promise of full sovereignty and freedom. This date became a symbol of a unified nation under the principle of “Neither Eastern nor Western.” Yet this glory quickly began to erode under the weight of internal division and foreign intervention, leading to today’s reality—what many describe as a mere symbolic independence, devoid of genuine sovereignty.



The First Israeli Invasion: A Warning of Crisis (1978)

The actual collapse of Lebanese sovereignty began with the deterioration of security and, specifically, with direct Israeli intervention. In March 1978, Israel launched “Operation Litani” in response to a Palestinian operation, invading South Lebanon up to the Litani River. This first invasion was a dangerous indicator of the Lebanese state’s weakness and inability to protect its borders. Despite UN Security Council Resolution 425 demanding immediate Israeli withdrawal, the occupation entrenched itself and began establishing the so-called “security belt” through local proxies.



The Major Invasion and Occupation (1982–2000)

On June 6, 1982, Israel crossed all boundaries, launching “Operation Peace for Galilee.” This invasion was a full-scale assault that went beyond the south, reaching the capital Beirut, besieging it, and causing massive destruction. This time, it was not just a military incursion but an occupation of the national decision-making center. Amid the state’s collapse, the Lebanese national resistance was born as a natural and existential response. The resistance confronted this occupation by all means, believing that the duty to defend the land does not vanish with government negligence.



Resistance Victories (Hezbollah) and Liberation History

• Partial Withdrawal (1985):
Resistance strikes forced Israeli forces to withdraw from Beirut, most of Mount Lebanon, Sidon, and Nabatieh, though they maintained control over the occupied border strip known as the “security belt.”

• The Great Liberation (May 25, 2000):
This moment stands as the most prominent in modern resistance history. Under mounting pressure and strategic attacks, the occupation collapsed suddenly, and Israeli forces and their collaborators withdrew completely from South Lebanon. This victory was a national achievement that restored the land and renewed Lebanese confidence in their ability to defeat occupation through force.




July War 2006: Strategic Deterrence

After liberation, Israel sought to reimpose deterrence and control. In July 2006, it launched a wide-scale aggression on Lebanon that lasted 33 days, aiming to destroy Hezbollah’s infrastructure and impose a new security order.

• The Divine Victory (July Victory):
The resistance succeeded in enduring and inflicting unprecedented losses on the Israeli army, forcing it to accept a ceasefire under UN Security Council Resolution 1701 on August 14, 2006. This victory was not only military but also established a new strategic deterrence equation, protecting Lebanon from full-scale aggression for over a decade and proving that resistance was the only force capable of imposing Lebanon’s will against Israel.




The Current Situation: Division and New Complexity

Today, the situation has changed. After the 2006 victory and the establishment of deterrence, the battle shifted from direct military occupation to wars of economic, media, and political influence. Continuous efforts aim to isolate the resistance and dismantle its supportive environment.

1. Estrangement from Sovereignty:
American and foreign delegations continue to dictate terms, threaten sanctions and escalation (as seen recently with border tensions), and even insult Lebanese journalists as “animals” and the Lebanese people as “savages.

” These foreign powers tie reconstruction, financial aid, and even currency stability to political conditions designed to strip Lebanon of resistance power or push it toward normalization through projects like the “Abraham Accords.” All this occurs without any objection from the Lebanese state!

2. Internal Demonization and Polarization:
Sadly, the media and political scene are drowning in systematic campaigns against Hezbollah, which sacrificed blood and lives to protect Lebanon. Sectarian and political diversity is exploited to create sharp divisions, portraying resistance as an “internal enemy,” while it has been the protective shield for all. Malicious sectarian campaigns now attempt to diminish the value of the Shiite community.

3. Corruption as a Tool of Domination:
Corruption is no longer just an internal problem but has become a tool in foreign hands to blackmail Lebanese decision-making. A government of division and clientelism remains paralyzed and guilty—not only for leaving its people in poverty but also for opening the doors wide to foreign domination.

4. The Support War (2023–2024): The Latest Price of Sovereignty
Since October 2023, Lebanon entered a new phase of confrontation on the southern border, known as the “Support War,” in solidarity with Gaza. This limited clash heavily drained the south. Border villages—primarily the resistance’s environment (Hezbollah, Lebanon’s Shiites)—bore the brunt of daily, deliberate bombardment, leading to the displacement of tens of thousands, the destruction of hundreds of homes, and systematic annihilation of farmland and livestock. The price was devastating: countless human and material losses. Yet the Lebanese state, represented by a divided government, showed no serious effort to plan national compensation or reconstruction. Citizens who paid the price of defending the homeland were abandoned, confirming once again the nature of Lebanon’s “symbolic independence,” where resistance defends the borders while those who sacrifice are left without support or recognition.




Toward Restoring True Sovereignty

Anger alone is not enough; it must transform into action that matches the sacrifices:

• National Unity on Fundamentals: Lebanon’s salvation lies in unity that recognizes resistance as a national defensive force. It cannot be left alone against the enemy. National decision-making must unite around protecting the south and rejecting foreign dictates.

• Radical Reform to Block Blackmail: End the system of corruption and clientelism that has made Lebanese decisions hostage to foreign powers. A strong state cannot be built on pervasive corruption.

• Reject Conditional Reconstruction: Rebuilding the south must be an independent national plan, rejecting American and Israeli conditions that exploit war destruction for political goals.

• Responsible National Media: Counter campaigns that demonize defenders of the homeland, and highlight the historical truth of sacrifices made by the people of the south, Bekaa, and Dahieh.

• Revitalize State Institutions: Institutions must reclaim their role to fill the vacuum, so resistance remains a deterrent force while the state provides the political and constitutional cover.




Conclusion

Lebanon, born free in 1943, now faces its toughest test. True independence is not a mere anniversary celebrated with flags but a daily act requiring unified national will. The sacrifices and blood shed in 1978, 1982, 2000, and 2006 placed Lebanon in a position of strength unseen in decades. Unless this strength is translated into internal unity and absolute refusal to submit, Lebanon will remain captive to internal division and foreign domination, squandering the fruits of the “Divine Victory.”


🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴 Statement issued by Hezbollah:

In the Name of God, the Most Merciful, the Most Compassionate
“Among the believers are men who have been true to their covenant with God; some of them have fulfilled their vow, and some are still waiting, but they have never changed in the least.”

With pride and honor, Hezbollah announces to the people of the Resistance and to our Lebanese nation the martyrdom of the great jihadi commander Haitham Ali al-Tabtabai (Sayyid Abu Ali), who rose as a martyr in sacrifice for Lebanon and its people following a treacherous Israeli aggression on the Haret Hreik area in Beirut’s southern suburb.

The great commander has joined his fellow martyrs after a long anticipation of meeting God Almighty, following a life filled with jihad, truthfulness, sincerity, and steadfastness on the path of resistance, working tirelessly against the Israeli enemy until the very last moment of his blessed life. He never knew fatigue or weariness in defending his land and people. He dedicated his life to the Resistance since its inception and was among the leaders who laid its foundational pillars so that it would remain strong, dignified, and capable of safeguarding the nation and achieving victories.

God has honored him with the lofty medal of martyrdom. His great sacrifice will inspire hope, determination, and strength in his fellow fighters, and reinforce their resolve to continue the path. Just as he was in life a source of strength and inspiration, so too will his pure blood, carried by the fighters along with the blood of all the martyred leaders, propel them forward with steadfastness and courage to thwart all the projects of the Zionist enemy and its patron, America.

We extend condolences and congratulations to our Master, the Imam of the Age (may God hasten his reappearance), to his fellow fighters and resistors, to the steadfast and patient Resistance community, and to all the free people of the world on the martyrdom of this great jihadi commander and his companions who rose with him. We also extend our sympathies to their noble families, asking God Almighty to grant them patience and solace, and to the wounded a speedy recovery.

Sunday, 23-11-2025
2 Jumada al-Akhirah 1447 AH

#Military_Media


🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴Defiance in the Rubble: Israel’s Treacherous Strike on Beirut's Dahiyeh

➡️The air in Beirut’s Southern Suburb, the resilient Dahiyeh, was ripped apart on Sunday, November 23, 2025, by another act of cowardly Israeli terrorism. This flagrant violation of Lebanese sovereignty and the existing ceasefire, a direct and calculated assault on the heart of the capital's civilian area, confirmed once again that the Zionist entity understands only the language of aggression.

👌The target of this heinous assassination was the Great Jihadi Commander, Haitham Ali al-Tabtabai, "Sayyid Abu Ali," the de facto military chief of the Lebanese Resistance. This was not a strike against a military base; it was a premeditated strike against the leadership of a movement that has successfully defended Lebanon against decades of Israeli hegemonic occupation. It was a craven attempt to decapitate the Resistance’s command structure, executed in the densely populated, peaceful neighborhood of Haret Hreik.

⚪️How the Terror Attack Unfolded

🫶According to eyewitness accounts and reports from the ground, the Israeli aggression took the form of a violent aerial strike, likely a precision-guided missile launched by a warplane or drone. The target was two residential apartments in a building on Al-Aarid Street in Haret Hreik, in the very heart of the Dahiyeh. The attack occurred around 2:45 PM, a time when streets are typically busy with civilians, causing widespread destruction, panic, and casualties among the surrounding shops and passersby.

🫶The strike claimed the life of Commander al-Tabtabai and a group of his comrades, including Qassem Barjawi, Qassem Harb, Raafat Mourad, and Ibrahim Hussein. The initial civilian toll was one martyr and 21 injured, but the sheer chaos and the direct targeting of a civilian, residential building on a busy street underscore the criminal intent to inflict maximum terror and collateral damage. This is the Zionist way: targeting the innocent to break the will of the defiant.

⚪️The Target: A Titan of the Resistance

Haitham Ali al-Tabtabai's journey is the history of the Resistance itself. Born in 1968, he was a foundational pillar of the Islamic Resistance, rising through the ranks since its inception in the 1980s. His record is one of relentless confrontation with the occupiers:

✌ Pre-2000 Liberation: He led numerous military operations against Israeli forces and their collaborators.

✌ The 1990s: He was a frontline figure against the Israeli aggressions of 1993 and 1996.

✌ The 2006 July War: As the commander of the Khiam axis, he directed the heroic confrontations against the invading forces.

✌ Post-2006: He was instrumental in establishing and developing the elite Radwan Force and was a key planner in the fight against Takfiri groups on the eastern border.

✌ The War of Al-Aqsa Flood (2023-2024):

He served as the Chief of Operations for the Islamic Resistance.

✌ Post-Uli Al-Baas (2024): He assumed the role of the Resistance’s Chief of Military Command.
The Israeli military (IDF) celebrated this murder with grotesque arrogance, dubbing it "Black Friday" and calling al-Tabtabai the "Chief of Staff of the terrorist Hezbollah." This cynical, self-congratulatory naming convention attempts to frame the assassination as a bargain-basement purchase of a "last-season good," oblivious to the fact that such arrogance only invites a crushing response.

⚪️Consequences and the Inevitable Reaction

🔽The consequences of this attack are immense and volatile, pushing the region closer to a major, destructive war:

🔢 Provocation of War: As analyst Sami Kleib pointed out, the strike is a direct attempt by Netanyahu to corner the Resistance. The choice is impossible: either retaliate and provide the Zionist entity with the flimsy pretext for a full-scale assault on the South, Bekaa, and Dahiyeh, or show restraint and risk appearing weakened before its allies and enemies.

🔢 Deterrence Failure: This attack signals that Israel is tracking and targeting all new Resistance leadership.
It aims to cripple the movement’s ability to rearm and reorganize. However, the defiance of the Dahiyeh’s people—who refuse to leave their shattered homes—proves this tactic is futile. The Resistance has demonstrated an infinite capacity for resilience and replacement.

🔢 Domestic Lebanese Crisis: By choosing Independence Day (November 22) weekend, the Zionist regime aimed to humiliate the Lebanese Army, which lacks the military capacity to respond, and to undermine the Lebanese state’s sovereignty. It is a clear message that the required outcome is surrender, not a negotiated peace.

🔢 The US Role: Consent or Complicity? The prevailing geopolitical climate and the sheer audacity of this strike—in the heart of a capital city—strongly suggest, at minimum, that the US was aware and likely gave tacit consent for the operation. Israel does not undertake such a high-stakes, high-risk assassination without coordinating with its primary backer, especially since Tel Aviv’s declared goals align with Washington’s interest in pressuring Lebanon and "containing" the Resistance Axis. The attack serves as a clear offering of credentials to the new US administration, proving Israel's commitment to eliminating those deemed "terrorists" by both nations.

🔻Will Hezbollah React?

👍The immediate response from Hezbollah was a proud and defiant mourning statement, framing al-Tabtabai's martyrdom as a sacrifice “for Lebanon and its people.” The statement's conscious shift in rhetoric—not explicitly citing the path to Al-Quds or support for Gaza, as noted by some observers—highlights a potential new phase.
The consensus from the street and the history of the Resistance is clear: there will be a reaction. The Resistance does not allow the blood of its leaders, especially one of this magnitude, to go unanswered. The method and timing of the response will be calculated and strategic, chosen to maximize the impact on the Zionist occupation while navigating the high-stakes risk of full-blown war. The enemy's "Black Friday" may soon become a very long, dark week for the occupation leadership. The resilience of the Dahiyeh, as its people assert—"We are staying... with the Resistance until the Hour comes"—is the true, unbreakable strategic counter-weapon.


🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

Book :

Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence ( A Concise History )

By :

Steven Ward

Year : 2024

Preview :

Despite Iran’s permanent status as ‘pariah’ on the world stage, with all the attendant media coverage and public discussion, focus more often than not remains on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its activities and objectives. Little is said of the regime’s own Ministry of Intelligence (MOIS), is to the detriment of a serious analysis of the regime’s capabilities and strategy. Steven Ward, a former CIA officer, gives an intelligence-eye view of this understudied organisation. A good book to see the western perspective of Iran’s MOIS .

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴The Trillion-Dollar Betrayal: How MBS Sold the Soul of the Kingdom in Washington


🔽The stench of avarice and strategic hypocrisy hung thick over Washington D.C. this week as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) was received with all the pomp and flyover fanfare reserved for a conquering hero—or perhaps, a lavishly paying customer. This visit, hosted by President Trump, was not a summit of equals working toward peace; it was a cold, transactional exchange where Saudi Arabia paid handsomely—with its national wealth and, worse, the dignity of the Palestinian cause—for a sliver of prestige and a hollow sense of security. The true casualty of this black-tie diplomacy is accountability, both for the gruesome murder of a journalist and for the financial ruin being brought upon the Saudi people.


⚪️The Ghastly Optics of Denial

➡️The sheer audacity of the White House welcome was a geopolitical obscenity. For more than seven years, the shadow of Jamal Khashoggi's brutal 2018 assassination has haunted MBS's international standing. Yet, there was President Trump, offering an immediate and shameful absolution, declaring that MBS "knew nothing" about the killing. Khashoggi’s death was "painful" to hear about, the Crown Prince declared, while his government "did all the right steps of investigation." This chilling exchange—a casual wave of the hand dismissing premeditated state murder—was a direct, painful insult to human rights advocates worldwide and to the very notion of a free press. The message was clear: in the pursuit of strategic advantage and cash, American values are infinitely negotiable.


⚪️The Abraham Accords: A Dagger in Palestine’s Heart

👌The move toward Saudi normalization with Israel, framed as a grand diplomatic achievement, is nothing short of a profound political betrayal of the Arab cause. MBS insists he wants a "clear path to a two-state solution" as a condition for joining the Abraham Accords. But who is he fooling? This “clear path” is nothing more than rhetorical cover. The current Israeli government has repeatedly and explicitly rejected the establishment of a Palestinian state under any circumstances.
The original Arab Peace Initiative demanded that normalization follow a just resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Abraham Accords, however, flipped that paradigm, prioritizing bilateral security and economic gains over the rights of an occupied people. If Saudi Arabia, the guardian of the Two Holy Mosques, throws its immense weight behind normalization now, it will fatally undermine the core principle of pan-Arab solidarity. MBS's condition is a meaningless gesture, designed to provide domestic and regional cover while his kingdom plunges a political dagger into the heart of the Palestinian national project.


⚪️The F-35 Illusion and the Hollow Alliance

🤔The security package unveiled—including the coveted F-35 stealth fighters and the Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA) designation—is a masterclass in transactional power dynamics that overwhelmingly favors Washington and Tel Aviv.
First, the F-35s. While Trump boasted that the Saudis would get the same model as Israel’s—rejecting the idea of "reduced caliber" jets—the reality is dictated by Israel’s “Qualitative Military Edge” (QME). Israel is demanding, and will almost certainly receive, technological or operational concessions to ensure its perpetual aerial superiority. This is a deal conditional on Israeli demands, proving Riyadh is buying a second-rate capability while Israel retains the veto.
Second, the MNNA status. It sounds impressive, but it is a hollow title. A Major Non-NATO Ally receives military perks—easier access to equipment, training, and defense industry deals—but crucially, it receives no mutual defense guarantee. This is the core of the cynical transaction: the US gets a "Strategic Defense Agreement" that secures new Saudi burden-sharing funds, streamlines access for U.S. defense firms, and makes Riyadh a closer customer and partner for American logistics.

🫶KSA gets a badge of honor and better weapons, but not the promised NATO-style treaty that would actually guarantee American lives in its defense. It’s a protection racket where the Crown Prince pays vast sums for tools, not treaties.


⚪️The Trillion-Dollar Tragedy: Poverty, Plunder, and NEOM’s Ghost

✌The most infuriating part of this visit is the chilling disregard for the people of Saudi Arabia. While millions of Saudis grapple with monetary challenges, unemployment, and an economy struggling to diversify, the Crown Prince promised to raise Saudi investment in the United States to a staggering $1 trillion, up from a prior $600 billion pledge.
This $1 trillion commitment is nearly the entire value of the Saudi sovereign wealth fund (PIF) and almost equals the kingdom’s entire annual GDP. This money is the future of Saudi Arabia, yet it is being gifted to prop up the American economy, create American jobs, and enrich American CEOs.
Meanwhile, at home, his signature project, NEOM, stands as a monstrous monument to hubris and waste. The project has not simply "failed"—it has been an economic and human rights catastrophe. Initial budget estimates of $500 billion have reportedly ballooned, with internal audits warning the cost could reach an unbelievable $8.8 TRILLION and take until 2045 or even 2080 to complete. The ambitious "Line" has been severely scaled back, its timeline repeatedly shattered. The desert is not being graced by a city of the future; it is being littered with the ghosts of an impossible dream, fueled by the money that should be rebuilding Gaza, addressing domestic poverty, and securing a sustainable future for Saudi youth.


⚪️The Corporate Cabal Dinner

🫶The guest list for the black-tie dinner at the White House—featuring tech titans like Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Apple CEO Tim Cook, alongside leaders from Chevron, Pfizer, and Cisco—tells the entire story. This wasn't a meeting of diplomats; it was a gathering of a corporate cabal, an auction where Saudi Arabia was finalizing the sale of its future assets (AI, critical minerals, finance, energy) to American corporate giants. The agenda, which included panels on artificial intelligence, energy, technology, and finance, was purely commercial. MBS is transforming the kingdom's strategic assets into financial instruments for the West while providing a photo-op for executives who care more about quarterly earnings than Khashoggi or Palestine.
This trip was a moral disaster. The Crown Prince bought prestige, security crumbs, and political rehabilitation at a cost the Saudi people—and the Palestinians—will be paying for decades to come.

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

This forms a grim coalition in which Western powers, Israel, and some Arab states appear willing to sacrifice minority rights in Syria to contain Iranian influence, effectively plotting ethno-religious cleansing through forced exoduses and weakening the centuries-old Shia and Alawite presence.
International Inaction and the Call for Protection

Despite urgent appeals to the United Nations and the international community, the global response remains muted, allowing the Joulani regime to continue its actions unchecked.
The Alawite Council has issued a unified call for protest and protection following the new attacks.

To halt this escalating crisis, the global community must:

* Respond to the Alawite Council’s pleas for protection.

* Implement sanctions targeting Joulani’s militia networks.

* Pressure Israel to end any covert collaboration that enables destabilization.

* Intensify humanitarian operations and document war crimes for international prosecution.

The right of Syrian Alawites and Shias to live freely and peacefully in their homeland, without fear of extermination or displacement by sectarian extremists and their foreign collaborators, is undeniable.

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5