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In a strategic development in early 2026, as government forces advanced eastward to take over detention centers and prisons in Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor, and to avoid mass escape scenarios that could destabilize the fragile stability, the US military intervened directly. In coordination with the authorities in Damascus, US forces executed a large-scale transfer of thousands of high-risk "ISIS" members and commanders from prisons in northeastern Syria to secured detention facilities inside Iraqi territory.
Integrating the "SDF" and Ending Separated Identity
On the domestic front, following sharp military clashes in early January 2026 around Aleppo and its eastern countryside—which displaced approximately 148,000 civilians—the two sides moved toward a settlement forced by facts on the ground:
"Israel has been fighting Hezbollah for a very long time, and many people are being killed... I suggested to Israel that they let Syria take care of Hezbollah. Because to be honest with you, I think they would do a better job at it."
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Dissatisfaction grows in Israel over the ceasefire ending without achieving military objectives. Reports indicate that Beirut has become a "no-go zone" for the Israeli army, and that PM Netanyahu and DM Katz ordered the latest strike on Dahiyeh despite military warnings of potential Iranian ballistic missile retaliation.
The Lebanese Ministry of Health updated the total toll of the Israeli aggression to 3,826 martyrs (including 247 children, 364 women, and 133 paramedics) and 11,851 wounded.
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The Observer
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Iran emerges from this war stronger, at least in the eyes of the Arab states, particularly the Arabian Gulf countries. In their view, Iran succeeded in confronting the greatest military power in the world, the United States, and the greatest military power in the Middle East, "Israel."
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“We will remain in the various ‘security zones’ we have captured for as long as necessary in order to protect the state,”
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“The countdown to regime change in Iran will begin once there is a change of government in Israel,” former Israeli PM and opposition leader Naftali Bennett declared.
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"Even if it were impossibly assumed that the government of the Islamic Republic would negotiate with the American regime, it would never negotiate with the current American government."
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Leaks from a written plan drafted by the Iranian Vice President have revealed a governmental inclination and understanding of the need to end the continuous nightly gatherings and marches in the country. The plan's document stated:
"Following the conclusion of the first ten days of Muharram, or the solemn funeral of the martyr commander, preparing for a peaceful winding down of these gatherings, intelligently navigating through these special circumstances, and steering society toward a return to daily life is an absolute necessity to preserve the psychological health of society, safeguard political capital, and ensure the independence of the regime’s decision-making."
This popular movement received direct endorsement and encouragement from the new Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Sayyid Mojtaba Khamenei, who pointed out on several occasions the importance of this presence on the ground. Among the most prominent statements from his speeches on this matter:
"Undoubtedly, your chants in the squares influence the outcomes of negotiations; likewise, the staggering and growing numbers of millions in the 'Sacrifice for Iran' (Jan-fada) campaign are among the influential elements in this arena."
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The Observer
"What steadfast power and steely resolve is this with which the Iranian people have risen and taken to the squares since the dawn of March 1st, remaining with full enthusiasm and lofty motives for more than three months to demand vengeance for the blood of their martyr commander and all the other martyrs, and to safeguard our Islamic regime and dear homeland? These millions-strong ranks of volunteers (feda'iyyeen) have formed the bedrock for achieving the aspirations of the martyr commander, establishing truth, and rising for the sake of God."
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✍️Strategic Assessment
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