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"the first time Lebanon decides its destiny alone,"
"Naim Qassem decides as he wants, and we decide too."
#Lebanon #QlayaatAirport #AxisOfResistance #US_Interference #Geopolitics #NawafSalam #NaimQassem #observer_5
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The terms of the disarmament plan announced by General Al-Mahmdawi—which came driven by intense US pressure following the recent escalation—show clear selectivity targeting specific parties. This is evident in several core areas:
The decision completely overlooks the Kurdish Peshmerga forces, which constitute a massive regular army possessing a heavy, independent arsenal that is not subject to the authority of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces.
More importantly, the plan ignores other armed Kurdish movements and parties deployed in northern Iraq (such as the Kurdistan Workers' Party [PKK] and Iranian Kurdish opposition parties). These groups possess camps and full military forces outside Baghdad's control, yet the threat of their weaponry was not addressed.
A stark contradiction emerges here; while the Sadrist movement officially announced the readiness of "Saraya al-Salam" to hand over its weapons to the state in line with the political atmosphere, reality overlooks the movement's most dangerous force: the "Promised Day Brigade."
The oversight extends to include the "Tribal Mobilization" (Hashd al-Asha'iri) factions in the western regions. Thousands of their fighters take orders primarily from their tribal chiefs and clans, and they possess weapons outside the effective oversight of the army, without being included in the threatening rhetoric.
Restricting the scope of the campaign to "PMF factions only" proves that the goal is not a comprehensive national project to strip all parties and tribes of their military claws. Instead, it is a US-driven tool aimed exclusively at cornering the factions involved in striking US bases and interests in the region.
#Iraq #USA #Israel #PMF #Restricting_Weapons_to_the_State
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US intercepts Iranian drones and missiles near Hormuz as Ukraine strikes deep into Russia.
What Changed (Last 24 Hours)
•US forces shot down four Iranian one-way attack drones headed toward the Strait of Hormuz and struck coastal surveillance radar sites in Goruk and on Qeshm Island.
•US CENTCOM intercepted seven Iranian ballistic missiles and additional drones targeting Kuwait, Bahrain, and Hormuz-area traffic.
•Ukrainian drones destroyed the Russian corvette Boikiy in St. Petersburg, hitting naval and energy infrastructure in a deep strike.
•Putin rejected Zelenskyy’s call for peace talks and ordered continued military operations.
•US forces boarded the sanctioned tanker MT Davina in the Indian Ocean, targeting Iranian shadow fleet networks.
•Commercial Hormuz traffic remained near zero with only limited passages observed under fragile ceasefire conditions.
Why This Matters ? (The System)
•US military enforcement of chokepoint access tightened amid Iranian probing attacks while Russia’s homeland vulnerability increased.
•The system now runs on kinetic interdiction and asymmetric deep strikes rather than diplomatic transit guarantees.
•Hard anchor: nearly 1,000 observed transits since ceasefire versus pre-crisis daily flows exceeding 20 million barrels equivalent.
What Breaks Next (Forward Risk)
•If US radar strikes degrade Iranian targeting without triggering full escalation, Gulf bypass pipelines gain months of lead time but lose first-mover optionality for full crude rerouting.
•If Ukrainian deep strikes continue, Russian naval logistics face accelerated attrition with production timelines for replacements measured in years.
•Option spreads widen as inventory draws hit operational minimums at Cushing and global buffers thin.
•Second-order: Armenia’s parliamentary vote tests Pashinyan’s EU pivot against Russian pressure via trade restrictions.
•EU supply-chain diversification rules above 40% single-country dependence accelerate corporate shifts from China.
•Infrastructure and treaty expiries cap Iraq Kurdistan Ceyhan ramp to 770 kb/d by mid-August.
Signal vs. Noise
Signal: US kinetic responses to Iranian probes, Ukrainian St. Petersburg strike, MT Davina boarding, Hormuz traffic stagnation.
Noise: OPEC+ quota relaxations without deliverable barrels, executive compensation reviews, orbital data center concepts.
The Line to Remember
Chokepoint control now belongs to whoever can enforce access faster than the other can disrupt it.
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🔰South:
🔰Bekaa:
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From a sports performance perspective, the Iranian team enters the tournament at an immense, almost insurmountable disadvantage. Effective tournament preparation relies on stability, routine, and adequate rest; yet, Iran’s preparation has been entirely derailed by off-pitch chaos.
"Iraqi goalscorer Aymen Hussein was detained by American authorities for seven hours as if he were a terrorist! But what can he do, he is Iraqi and that is enough to deprive him of his rights."
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