🔴“Ceasefire” in Gaza? A façade while occupation and strikes persist

On 10 October 2025 a ceasefire took effect between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, brokered with strong backing from Donald Trump. The truce was hailed as a relief for Gaza’s beleaguered civilian population.
Yet within days, Gaza’s media office claimed that Israel had already violated the deal 47 times, resulting in the deaths of more than 125 Palestinians and injuries to 143 more. These violations included direct gunfire against civilians, shelling, arrests — precisely what a ceasefire is supposed to halt.
What this highlights is not simply a lapse, but a predictable pattern: Israel signs a ceasefire while reserving the “right” to strike at will — thus turning the truce into a thin veneer of peace, rather than real protection for Palestinians.



Consequences for Gaza and wider regional fault-lines

The consequences for Gaza’s civilians are brutal: heavy air-and-ground operations resume under the pretext of “enforcing” or “responding” to alleged violations. For example, Israeli forces conducted massive strikes killing over 125 Palestinians, including children and women, even as the ceasefire was claimed to be active.

On the Lebanese front, the pattern is identical. Even under a ceasefire with Hezbollah since November 2024, Israel has carried out near-daily strikes in southern Lebanon, “almost a year later” according to AP. The Lebanese case offers a blueprint: a “less-fire” rather than a cease­-fire, allowing Israel to maintain strikes without full-scale war.

Thus Palestinians in Gaza should recognise that the current truce may also be a mirage: the stronger party retains military advantage and uses the ceasefire as diplomatic cover, not as a real commitment to respect human life and international law.

Israel and the US: trust broken, leverage abused

Donald Trump may have championed the Gaza truce, but his posture is revealing: when Israeli soldiers were reportedly killed in Rafah, Trump publicly declared that Israel “should hit back” — effectively green-lighting further Israeli strikes under the truce.
When the guarantor of the deal gives permission for one side to resume large-scale violence, the notion of a ceasefire becomes hollow. The US-Israel axis once again demonstrates it cannot be trusted to protect Palestinian lives. Israel’s history of violating ceasefires both in Gaza and Lebanon (many times over) is well-documented.


Why this matters now
• The civilian population of Gaza remains vulnerable — a truce that fails to stop strikes is simply a pause before a new escalation.
• The use of the Lebanon model suggests Israel will continue to strike while maintaining a nominal ceasefire — Gaza’s situation could replicate that pattern.
• Palestinians and their supporters must view the current deal with skepticism: until Israel honours the terms (cessation of strikes, withdrawal, lifting of blockades) the truce is not a step toward peace but a continuation of occupation under different conditions.
• The United States’ role as mediator is compromised: support for Israel’s right to strike undercuts any impartiality and leaves Palestinians at the mercy of Israel’s military calculus.


In conclusion

The ceasefire announced in early October cannot be seen as a genuine protection for Palestinians in Gaza until it is respected by the stronger party — Israel — and enforced by the guarantor — the United States. As history in Lebanon shows, Israel signs agreements then acts unilaterally under the guise of self-defence, while Palestinians pay the human cost. The current truce threatens to become another such episode.
Israel’s actions show that the truce is not a road to justice, but a tactical pause. Palestinians need genuine guarantees, accountability, and real withdrawal of forces — none of which appear forthcoming. Israel and the US cannot be counted on as honourable arbiters when their own interests and military logic dominate the field.

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴Nuclear Shadows: Trump’s Testing Threat and the Fracturing Global Order


📄Introduction: A Return to the Brink

👌In the wake of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent tests of the Poseidon nuclear torpedo and the Burevestnik cruise missile, former U.S. President Donald Trump has unleashed his own political shockwave. Declaring on his Truth Social platform that he has instructed the “Department of War” to “start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis,” Trump has reignited global anxieties that had long been subdued by international law and decades of diplomacy.

👋This is more than political theater. It’s a signal that nuclear deterrence is again becoming the defining logic of great-power rivalry—a regression that threatens the fragile architecture of nonproliferation and arms control painstakingly built since the Cold War.


⚪️I. The Shifting Regional and Global Balance

🔽Trump’s announcement reverberates through a world already reconfiguring its power centers.

🌕 Russia, locked in confrontation with the West over Ukraine and sanctions, sees nuclear posturing as leverage to reaffirm its superpower status.

🌕 China, rapidly expanding its strategic arsenal and modernizing its test facilities in Lop Nur, views this as validation of its long-term deterrence doctrine.

👍 Iran, closely aligned with both Moscow and Beijing, interprets the U.S. stance as hypocrisy—proof that Western powers selectively apply the rules of nonproliferation.

✌In this shifting equilibrium, smaller powers—especially in the Middle East and East Asia—are caught between fear and opportunism. The notion that nuclear capability equals security is once again gaining dangerous traction.


⚪️II. Violating the Legal Architecture: A Breach of International Norms

👋Under international law, Trump’s declaration challenges several key frameworks:

🗒 The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), adopted in 1996, bans “any nuclear weapon test explosion or any other nuclear explosion” worldwide. While the U.S. signed the CTBT, it has never ratified it; thus, Trump’s proposed testing would not technically be “illegal” under U.S. law—but would be a direct affront to its spirit and to global consensus.

🗒 The Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) obliges nuclear-weapon states to pursue disarmament and refrain from actions that undermine the goal of nonproliferation. Renewed U.S. testing would erode confidence in the NPT regime, embolden threshold states, and justify similar actions by rivals.

💳By hinting at resuming tests, Trump effectively signals a willingness to dismantle what remains of the post–Cold War nuclear restraint framework.


⚪️III. Nonproliferation at Risk: The Domino Effect

🙌The ripple effects could be devastating. If the United States resumes nuclear testing, Russia and China will likely follow, citing parity and deterrence. This could lead to:

👌 The collapse of the CTBT’s moral authority, rendering it a dead letter.

👌 A renewed global arms race, especially among emerging powers seeking recognition and leverage.

👌 Greater instability in volatile regions like the Middle East, where Israel and Iran’s nuclear standoff could escalate under the logic that “everyone else is testing.”

👌 Asia-Pacific tensions intensifying as North Korea uses U.S. precedent to justify its own nuclear ambitions.

🚪In short, the nonproliferation order—already weakened by selective compliance—could unravel entirely.

⚪️IV. Likely Responses: Strategic Calculations from Major Powers

🌕 China will likely condemn Trump’s declaration publicly while quietly accelerating its own modernization and possible testing preparations, framing its actions as “defensive parity.”

🌕 Russia will interpret the U.S. stance as validation of its own nuclear assertiveness. Moscow will likely escalate rhetoric and testing activity, deepening strategic synchronization with Beijing.

👍 Iran, already under intense scrutiny for its nuclear program, will use the moment to challenge Western double standards—arguing that if global powers disregard restraint, so too may regional actors seeking deterrence.

🔽This triangular response could crystalize a Beijing–Moscow–Tehran axis of nuclear defiance, complicating so called ‘Western diplomacy ‘ and further fragmenting the global security order. However , it will save and unite the allied countries within this axis of nuclear defiance .


📌Conclusion: A Dangerous Unraveling

🗂Trump’s call to resume nuclear testing is more than political showmanship—it’s a test of the entire global nonproliferation regime. It risks transforming deterrence into destruction, diplomacy into irrelevance, and competition into catastrophe.

🔢If unchecked, this renewed era of nuclear assertiveness could dissolve decades of cautious progress and return the world to an age where the flash of a test site in Nevada or Novaya Zemlya signals not strength, but the failure of civilization to learn from its own perilous past.

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴A resignation rooted in shame: How Israel’s military top lawyer quit after the leaked rape-video of a Palestinian detainee

🤔 In a development that lays bare the dysfunction and moral peril of the Israeli detention system in Gaza’s fallout, Major General Yifat Tomer-Yerushalmi — the military advocate general of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) — resigned on 31 October 2025 after admitting that she authorised the leak of video footage showing soldiers abusing a Palestinian detainee at the detention facility at Sde Teiman detention camp.
Her decision to step down illuminates more than an internal scandal — it underscores how a system of detention and deprivation, largely hidden from view, has become not only abusive but politically toxic for Israel.



⚪️The video case: what happened and why it matters

💳The incident at Sde Teiman emerged last year, in August 2024, when a CCTV-leak aired on Israel’s Channel 12 showing what the media described as a gang-rape of a Palestinian detainee by Israeli reservist soldiers. According to Al Jazeera’s explainer, the footage shows soldiers pulling a blindfolded prisoner aside, then surrounding him with riot shields while obscuring their actions. Medical evidence reported by Israeli media (such as Haaretz) shows the victim suffered a ruptured bowel, severe anal and lung injuries, broken ribs.
Though the formal indictment did not charge the soldiers with rape — only “severe abuse” — many rights observers said the downgrade signals impunity.

🎙Tomer-Yerushalmi admitted she authorised the leak “in an attempt to counter false propaganda against military law-enforcement authorities.” But her admission has been seized by Israeli hard-right politicians as betrayal: for them, the leak served the enemy, and her resignation is being framed as meritless.

⚪️The victim and the human cost

👍Although the detainee remains anonymous in public accounts, the gravity of his abuse sets the tone. A Palestinian from Gaza held at Sde Teiman, stripped of identity before the world, suffered sexualised violence, torture, injuries requiring hospitalisation, and the ignominy of being used as a spectacle. In these dark moments we see what many human-rights organisations warn: that Palestinian detainees, far from being shielded by legal protections, are rendered vulnerable to the worst abuses of power.

🎞The fact that a top legal official felt compelled to leak the video suggests two parallel regimes: one of detention and abuse, the other of cover-up and damage-control. The victim, without voice and name in the public domain, remains a symbol of the thousands who languish in custody facing such risks.

⚪️Patterns of abuse: beyond one video

🌕This is not an isolated incident. Investigations and reporting suggest that at Sde Teiman — and in the broader Israeli detention apparatus for Palestinians — abuse, humiliations, torture and sexual violence have become alarmingly common.
👋 A detailed Al Jazeera report noted that bodies of more than a hundred Palestinians returned by Israel bear clear signs of abuse: blindfolds, bound hands, execution-style gunshots to the head.
👋 One UN rights-office press release states at least 75 Palestinians have died in Israeli detention since 7 October 2023, many following torture or denial of medical treatment.
👋 Testimonies published by Le Monde described one detainee at Sde Teiman who saw carrots forced into fellow prisoners’ anuses and other “rape with iron batons” acts.
👋 The tags on body-bags returned to Gaza often begin with “ST” (for Sde Teiman), which local medical staff say indicates those remains passed through that facility.
👋 The Guardian says at least 135 mutilated Palestinian bodies returned to Gaza had come from Sde Teiman; some showed gunshots in the head, rope around the neck, hands still tied behind backs.

📄With respect to children: though detailed breakdowns of how many minors suffered abuse in Israeli detention remain unclear in open sources, the general context of thousands of Palestinians held under Israeli control — including under administrative detention, without trial — means children are inherently exposed. For example, one broad data set reports that more than 10,800 Palestinians (including 450 children) were in Israeli prisons in the broader Gaza/West Bank context as of late 2025.

⚪️Why this is a public-relations and legitimacy disaster for Israel

🌕For Benjamin Netanyahu and his government, the affair is more than an embarrassment — it is arguably one of the worst self-inflicted PR disasters in recent years. When a top military legal officer admits that a video of soldiers abusing a detainee had to be leaked to correct “false propaganda”, the message is clear: abuse is real, cover-up is institutional, the rule of law is broken.
In the international arena, Israel presents itself as a democracy committed to human rights and the rule of law. Yet this affair undermines that claim violently. Foreign governments, international organisations and media see a pattern: sexual violence in custody, deaths in detention, bodies returned with signs of torture. The U.S. State Department explicitly said that “there ought to be zero tolerance for sexual abuse or rape of any detainee.”
Right-wing Israeli leaders who stormed the base where the accused soldiers were held, and who defend the notion of “our soldiers acting for our security” undercut any meaningful accountability.
Thus Netanyahu’s calculation: the incident taints Israel’s global standing, gives fuel to narratives of Israeli impunity, strengthens calls for war-crimes investigations, undermines alliances and creates leverage for Israel’s enemies and critics.

⚪️Legal ramifications — the leak and the abuse

🎞The leak: Tomer-Yerushalmi’s admission that she authorised the leak means she faces a criminal investigation by the Military Police into disclosure of classified material. The fact that the leak was ostensibly to expose wrongdoing does not in the Israeli military legal framework exempt her from liability.
👋The abuse itself: The soldiers involved were initially arrested and indicted for “severe abuse” but not rape — a key legal point since many observers argue the facts support sexual assault charges. Under Israeli military law and international law (including the Geneva Conventions, Rome Statute of the ICC) acts such as torture, sexual violence against detainees, summary execution, are war crimes or crimes against humanity when part of a policy or widespread practice. The evidence of signs of torture on dozens of bodies, and the systemic nature of the documented abuse, raise the possibility of such crimes.
Should independent investigation proceed, the legal risks for Israel are enormous: individual criminal liability for perpetrators, command-responsibility liability for senior officers, state responsibility under international human-rights law, and reputational damage that could trigger sanctions or international adjudication.

⚪️Why the prison-system must be scrutinised

🫶The bigger problem is the detention system itself: facilities like Sde Teiman, operating under conditions of near-total impunity, for Palestinians — many held without charge or trial; many held incommunicado; many with no access to independent oversight. Reports say detainees were held blindfolded, shackled for long hours, forced into stress positions, subjected to sexualised violence and even execution-style killing.
The system is deeply asymmetrical: Palestinian detainees are held under military rule, Israeli soldiers essentially police themselves, and far-right political pressure obstructs investigations. The incident of the Top Legal Officer leaking a video because conventional channels were not trusted speaks volumes.
For victims, every day in custody becomes a risk of becoming the next “video scandal” or the next body returned with a number but no name.

⚪️International reaction and human-rights perspective

👌The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) has warned of systematic torture and ill-treatment of Palestinian detainees, stating that Israel must “urgently end” these practices.
👌 Human-rights organisations such as Physicians for Human Rights – Israel, the Euro‑Mediterranean Human Rights Monitor and others called for independent international investigations into the conditions at Sde Teiman and other sites — pointing out clearly the signs of torture, sexual assault, and execution after detention.
👌 The U.S., in August 2024, publicly stated it had reviewed the footage and insisted Israel must investigate fully and hold perpetrators accountable.
👌 International media and expert commentary frame this as more than criminal abuse — a crisis of
🌕legitimacy: a democracy at war with its own rule-of-law when it comes to occupied detainees.

⚪️Sympathising with the victims: the human toll

👍We must pause and acknowledge the human face here. The Palestinian detainee at Sde Teiman who was raped and beaten is one among many whose suffering remains invisible. Families wondering if their missing son’s body will ever be returned, or if it will be numbered and unnamed. Mothers who identify corpse-bags by scars, soldiers brackets or blindfold remnants. The psychological torture of not knowing. The fact that children — 450 children reportedly among detainees in Israeli jails late 2025. The systemic failure to protect the vulnerable, to ensure legal rights and humane treatment, turns detention into another front of violence.
🌕The victims are not “security risks” or faceless combatants: they are individuals, stripped of dignity. Their suffering demands that we not only analyse the event but demand accountability, transparency and justice.

📌Conclusion

🚪The resignation of Yifat Tomer-Yerushalmi is far more than an internal legal matter. It is an alarm bell that the Israeli military-detention system has moved past isolated scandal into structural crisis. A top lawyer intervened to leak evidence, recognising the system would not otherwise address what happened. The abuse, the lack of accountability, the political interference, the catalogue of returned bodies with torture signs — all point to a system that has abandoned the rule of law when it comes to Palestinian detainees.
For Israel, this affair is arguably one of its worst PR and legitimacy disasters in decades: it undermines the moral high ground, opens the door to war-crimes scrutiny, and erodes internal cohesion. For Palestinians, it means that the detention system remains a place of terror, not justice. The victim whose rape video finally surfaced is just one among many suffering in the shadows.
Unless Israel, under domestic and international pressure, undertakes a genuine independent investigation, reforms the detention regime, and holds accountable those responsible from the top to the bottom, this resignation will mark not a turning point, but a moment in a continuing spiral of abuse.
Analyzing it now is urgent; acting upon it is imperative.


🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

Scenes from the Haredi protests against the conscription law in Jerusalem on the 30th of last month.


🔴A House Divided: How the Haredi Draft Crisis is Tearing Israel Apart

🎞You’ve seen the videos. Black-garbed men flooding the highways of Jerusalem, setting dumpsters on fire, clashing with police in scenes that feel more like a civil uprising than a protest. This isn't Hamas or Hezbollah. This is an internal front exploding at the worst possible time for Israel. The long-simmering crisis over military service for the ultra-Orthodox, the Haredim, has boiled over, and it’s threatening to shatter Netanyahu’s government, reshape Israeli society, and undermine the national unity so desperately needed in a time of war.

👌Let’s break down how we got here.

💳Who Are the Haredim? The "God's Army"

🌕First, a quick primer. The Haredim (literally, "those who tremble" before God) are the most theologically conservative stream of Judaism. They live in tightly-knit communities, often speak Yiddish as a primary language, and separate themselves from what they see as the corrupting influence of secular modern life. For them, the study of Torah (Jewish religious texts) is the highest possible calling—the very purpose of Jewish existence.

🌕This isn't just a lifestyle choice; it's a theological imperative. They believe that their devotion and study are what sustain and protect the Jewish people, even more than any army. As their placards at protests read: "We're protecting Israel by praying." In their worldview, they are the spiritual IDF, and their yeshivas (study halls) are the front lines.

⚪️The Unspoken Bargain: Why No Draft?

🗒So, how did they get an exemption from the military, a sacred duty for most Israelis? It goes back to the state's founding in 1948. Israel’s first prime minister, David Ben-Gurion, exempted a few hundred elite yeshiva students to help rebuild the great centers of Jewish learning destroyed in the Holocaust. It was a temporary deal.

🤔But temporary has a way of becoming permanent. The Haredi community grew exponentially, and the exemption became a cornerstone of their identity and survival. Politically, their unified voting bloc made them kingmakers. Successive governments, dependent on their support, kept kicking the can down the road, perpetuating a system where a growing segment of the population doesn't serve in the military, doesn't study a core secular curriculum, and largely doesn't participate in the workforce to the same degree. The "unspoken bargain" was this: you support us in politics, and we protect your way of life.

⚪️The Breaking Point: War and a Court Deadline

📄Then came October 7th. The massive call-up of 300,000+ reservists, the deep sense of national burden, and the sight of endless funerals shattered the pre-war status quo. The sense of "we're all in this together" made the Haredi exemption feel increasingly untenable to the secular majority.

🔽Simmering resentment turned into a full-blown constitutional crisis when Israel's Supreme Court intervened. With the government failing to pass a new law, the court ruled that without a legal framework for the exemption, the state could no longer funnel funds to yeshivas whose students dodge the draft. Even more critically, it ordered the government to begin enforcing the draft on Haredi men, with arrests for draft-dodging to begin.

🌕This was the match that lit the fuse. The recent protests, some drawing hundreds of thousands, bringing Jerusalem to a standstill, are a direct response to these first, symbolic arrests. The message from the Haredi leadership is absolute and uncompromising: "Not one boy."

⚪️The Core of the Opposition: It's About Survival

🌕Why such ferocious opposition? It’s not simply about not wanting to serve. For the Haredim, this is an existential fight.

🔢 Theological Threat: Immersion in the secular, co-ed environment of the IDF is seen as a direct threat to their pious way of life. They fear it will lead to intermingling, a dilution of faith, and exposure to ideas that contradict their core beliefs.

🔢 The End of Study: They view full-time Torah study as a non-negotiable commandment.
Forcing young men into the army means taking them out of the yeshiva, which they equate with spiritual death for the individual and the nation.

🔢 Cultural Assimilation: This is the biggest fear. The army is Israel's great melting pot. For the Haredim, it's a melting pot that erases their distinct identity. They see conscription as the first step toward the forced secularization of their community, a tool to dismantle their world.

🌕The Domino Effect: Netanyahu, the War, and a Government on the Brink

✌This crisis is a political nightmare for Benjamin Netanyahu, and it hits on three simultaneous fronts.

1⃣ His Government's Survival: Netanyahu's coalition depends on Haredi parties. If he pushes for a draft law that satisfies the Supreme Court and the public, his Haredi partners will likely bring down the government. If he gives in to the Haredim, his more secular coalition partners, like Benny Gantz’s National Unity party, have threatened to quit. He is trapped in a lose-lose scenario.

2⃣ The War Effort: This is the most damaging aspect. While Israel is fighting a multi-front conflict in Gaza and facing daily skirmishes with Hezbollah in the north, its society is visibly fracturing. It projects an image of profound weakness and disunity to enemies like Iran and Hamas, who can simply sit back and watch Israel tear itself apart from within. The notion of a nation united in a fight for its survival is crumbling.

3⃣ Public Morale: For the soldiers on the front lines and the reservists who have put their lives on hold for months, the sight of a large, able-bodied community not sharing the burden is a bitter pill to swallow. It fuels a deep-seated anger that is radicalizing both sides—secular Israelis against the Haredim, and as we've seen with the violent protests, Haredi youth against the state itself.

📌The Bottom Line:

🌕Israel is at a historic crossroads. The post-1948 status quo is broken. The war with Gaza exposed the fault lines, and the Supreme Court has forced a decision. Netanyahu is trying to perform an impossible balancing act, but the ground is shaking beneath his feet. He can either preside over a fundamental reshaping of the relationship between religion and state in Israel, or he can watch his government collapse. Either way, the days of the old bargain are over. The question now is whether Israel can forge a new one without tearing itself apart in the process.

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴Urgent – Israel Announces Attack on Southern Lebanon Despite Ceasefire, Hezbollah Responds

🌕Israel issued an urgent warning to residents of the village of Aita al-Shaab (Al-Zatt) in southern Lebanon, demanding evacuation of buildings near sites allegedly used by Hezbollah. The warning included a safety perimeter of no less than 500 meters around the threatened buildings, citing potential targeting of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure in the near future.

👍Hezbollah responded with an official message to the Lebanese leadership, reaffirming its commitment to protecting Lebanese sovereignty and maintaining security and stability. The party rejected any attempts by the Israeli enemy or external forces to drag Lebanon into new negotiations that would impose conditions on the resistance. Hezbollah emphasized that the ceasefire declared on November 27, 2024, did not prevent Israel from continuing its violations, and that exclusive control over weapons would not be imposed on the resistance under external pressure.

📄Hezbollah concluded its statement by asserting its legitimate right to defend Lebanon against any Zionist aggression, calling for national unity to confront threats and safeguard national sovereignty.

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

📄 Book of the Week
🔴 The Holocaust Industry — by Norman G. Finkelstein

📄This book shakes the ground under one of the most sensitive subjects in modern history. Finkelstein — himself the son of Holocaust survivors — argues that the tragedy of Jewish suffering has been turned into a political and financial industry.

🌕He doesn’t deny the Holocaust. He exposes how governments, organizations, and lobbies have exploited its memory to gain money, power, and immunity from criticism — especially when it comes to Israel’s actions in Palestine.

🌕It’s sharp, fearless, and deeply moral — a book that questions how history is used and who really benefits from keeping certain wounds open.

💬 Key Quotes:

👌“The Holocaust has become an indispensable ideological weapon. Through its deployment, one of the world’s most formidable military powers has cast itself as a ‘victim’ state.”

🙌“The real victims of the Holocaust are not those who perished, but those who survived — and whose suffering has been hijacked by an industry built on moral exploitation.”


🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

US President Donald Trump said that lifting the sanctions on Syria came at the request of Turkey, Israel, and other countries.

🔴From Terrorist Leader to Head of State: How Did the World Legitimize Al-Joulani as President of Syria?

🌕Ahmad Al-Sharaa, known by his nom de guerre Ahmad Al-Joulani, is a figure whose rise from a violent past to the presidency of Syria has stirred deep controversy and sparked serious geopolitical and legal debates. A former leader of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) — an organization widely designated by the United Nations, the United States, and the European Union as a terrorist group and an offshoot of Al-Qaeda in Syria and Iraq — Al-Joulani’s record is marked by violence, atrocities, and terrorism. He played a key role in founding Jabhat al-Nusra, which was central to Syria’s bloody war since 2011, making him complicit in numerous acts of brutal killings and executions of civilians and dissidents. The UN had imposed sanctions on him for terrorism and links to both Al-Qaeda and ISIS, including asset freezes and a travel ban.

📄Yet, by the end of 2025, the world witnessed a dramatic turn when the UN Security Council voted overwhelmingly (14 votes in favor, with China abstaining) to lift sanctions on Al-Sharaa and his interior minister, Anas Hassan Khattab. This decision signaled a decisive political endorsement of the new Syrian leadership that emerged after the ousting of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024 — a campaign led by the HTS coalition under Al-Joulani’s command. The move, initiated by the United States under Chapter VII of the UN Charter, aimed to remove their names from terrorism-related sanctions lists and lift asset freezes and travel bans that restricted their international activity. The U.S. and its allies justified the move as recognition of a “new era” in Syria, intended to reintegrate the country into the international system and facilitate reconstruction and stabilization efforts after years of conflict.

👌From a legal standpoint, lifting sanctions against a former terrorist who has become a head of state is unprecedented and highly complex. While the UN sanctions regime aims to combat global terrorism and violence, this decision reflects a pragmatic approach that acknowledges new realities on the ground. Such sanctions can be lifted if the Security Council unanimously deems that the individuals in question have genuinely changed, or that geopolitical circumstances require engagement rather than isolation. The U.S. asserted that Al-Sharaa is now committed to fighting terrorism — including ISIS and Al-Qaeda affiliates — protecting human rights, and allowing humanitarian access to Syria. However, this stance raises serious questions about accountability for past crimes and the danger of legitimizing impunity for war crimes.

🤔Why Al-Sharaa specifically?
His selection over other designated terrorist leaders stems from calculated geopolitical and strategic reasoning. Certain Western and regional powers view him as Syria’s de facto ruler after Assad, due to his military and political control over key territories. His apparent willingness to engage diplomatically — evidenced by meetings with U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin — suggests the potential to reintegrate Syria into broader regional stabilization efforts. Nonetheless, this pragmatic shift inherently overlooks issues of justice and the voices of victims of his past terrorist campaigns.

🔴For Syria, the lifting of sanctions represents both an opportunity and a challenge. Economically, the decision promises relief from severe restrictions, opening new avenues for aid, reconstruction, and foreign investment. Humanitarian organizations also expect fewer obstacles in delivering assistance and rebuilding infrastructure. Politically, the move signals Syria’s return to the international stage after years of isolation — potentially reshaping regional dynamics and encouraging diplomacy over warfare. Yet, it also risks entrenching a government led by a man with a bloody terrorist past, which could undermine Syria’s credibility and strain relations with nations wary of terrorism.
🌕On the international front, the decision provoked mixed reactions. While the U.S. and some regional powers endorsed it as a form of realpolitik, China abstained, citing concerns about ongoing security instability and the potential exploitation of Syria’s fragile state by foreign extremists. Critics argue that lifting sanctions on a former terrorist leader weakens global counterterrorism efforts and undermines international legal norms designed to hold terrorists accountable.

🔽In conclusion, the lifting of sanctions on Ahmad Al-Sharaa — a former terrorist with a bloody record — to assume Syria’s presidency stands as a stark example of geopolitics triumphing over legal and moral principles. It reflects the international community’s prioritization of stability and strategic interests over justice and accountability, raising profound ethical and legal questions about impunity and the message it sends concerning past acts of terrorism.


🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

Imaginary scenes from the 'The Line' project in Saudi Arabia's NEOM, a bold futuristic vision that has not been realized in reality.

🔴The Mirage of NEOM and the Debt Behind the Crown Prince’s Vision

When Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman announced NEOM — the Saudi desert transformed into a futuristic “city of the future” — it was meant to signal the dawn of a new Saudi Arabia: away from oil, steeply modernized, technologically advanced, and globally competitive. The kingdom’s “Vision 2030” blueprint was to pivot the country from petro-monarch to post-petro powerhouse. Instead, mounting evidence suggests what is playing out is a different story: massive spending, slowing returns, fiscal strain, delayed projects, and mounting regional distractions.

Dreams cost money — and then more money

NEOM was pitched at roughly US $500 billion but insiders and external analysts long considered that figure deeply conservative. According to one report, the overall value of Saudi real-estate and infrastructure projects tied to Vision 2030 already surpasses US $1 trillion.
The independent investigation by the Financial Times concluded that NEOM’s flagship elements — in particular the “Line” linear-city concept — are now subject to major review, cost blow-outs, and scaled-back ambitions.
These aren’t trivial revisions. For example:

• Leadership of NEOM changed abruptly — the CEO of the project was replaced amid mounting criticism.

• A “comprehensive review” of NEOM’s scope was launched, signalling that original assumptions were no longer credible under the original timetable.

• Some external reports estimate Saudi public-sector debt and borrowing needs far higher than previously disclosed. For instance, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected Saudi gross government debt could hit ~44.5 % of GDP by 2029.

• Saudi Arabia has turned heavily to international debt markets to finance the Vision 2030 agenda: in 2024 alone it reportedly issued around US $50 billion in bonds.

Domestic promises left unmet

For a regime that pledged transformation and renewed prosperity for its citizens, the domestic arithmetic does not look benign. Among the problems:

• Although the official 2025 budget statement suggests public debt equivalent to about 29.9 % of GDP (SAR 1,300 billion) under the “public debt” label, this may mask contingent liabilities, off-balance sheet projects and huge capital outlays still being financed through debt.

• The IMF in its 2025 Article IV consultation acknowledged that the forecast fiscal deficit would be financed “primarily by borrowing, including through debt issuances, syndicated loans or facilities from export credit agencies, leading to an increase in the public debt-to-GDP ratio to about 42 % by 2030.”

• Despite media-friendly headlines of diversification, many analysts warn the rapid borrowing and spending pace is unsustainable.

Foreign ventures: influence over reform

While Saudi Arabia spends heavily at home, it is also exporting capital — and risk — abroad in pursuit of regional influence. These foreign expenditures compound the overall fiscal and reputational risk. Some examples:

• In Yemen, Saudi Arabia pledged around US $368 million in fresh economic support in September 2025 to bolster the government in Aden.

• The kingdom previously deposited US $1 billion into Yemen’s central bank in 2023 to shore up the cash-starved government in exile.

• In Lebanon, Reuters reported that Lebanon would ask Saudi Arabia to resume a previously-halted US $3 billion grant for the Lebanese army.

• In Sudan, Saudi-aligned and Gulf-aligned funds have been implicated in backing rival factions, fuelling conflict, rather than stabilising governance.

These are not merely “aid packages,” but calculated strategic investments (or bets) in geopolitical theatres. In many cases the returns — economic or political — are far from assured. The gap between expectation and outcome is widening.

Strategic investment deal – United States relations

What happens next?

Saudi Arabia still retains enormous financial firepower: large sovereign reserves, the global role of Saudi Aramco, and a credit rating still well above many peers. But the trajectory is worrisome: more borrowing, more risk, more reliance on grand projects, and fewer clear pay-offs.

If the government is forced to delay or scale back major initiatives, or if oil prices slump, then taxpayers will ultimately feel the burden. The question for Saudi citizens — and for external investors — is whether this is just a recalibration or a structural failure of vision.

For MBS’s prestige to align with performance, Saudi Arabia must shift from spectacle to substance: meaningful returns, credible institutions, and realistic project scopes. Without that shift, the dream of NEOM becomes the cautionary tale of the kingdom’s transformation.

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

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🔴Iraqi Elections: The Struggle for Influence and Political Transformations from 2010 to 2025

📄Introduction

👌The Iraqi elections are not merely a contest for parliamentary seats, but rather an arena of power struggle—between various factions, between popular forces and armed organizations operating parallel to the state, and between regional and international actors.
Over the past two decades, experience has shown that electoral victory does not guarantee control over governance due to the sectarian quota system and the political balances imposed on Iraq following the U.S. occupation in 2003.

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⚪️2010 — The Victory of the “Iraqiya List” and the Failure to Form a Government

💳In the March 2010 elections, the Iraqiya List led by Iyad Allawi—a Shiite politician close to the United States—won the largest number of parliamentary seats (91).
Washington presented this list as a “moderate national alternative” to the Shiite parties aligned with Iran and viewed it as an opportunity to restore political balance after Nouri al-Maliki’s first term.
However, Allawi failed to form the largest bloc in parliament due to post-election coalitions led by al-Maliki, supported by Shiite and Kurdish parties and indirectly backed by Tehran.
This event marked a turning point: Washington realized that ballot boxes alone do not guarantee its interests unless accompanied by post-election political engineering.

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⚪️2018 — American Diplomatic Intervention and Efforts to Influence Alliances

📄After the May 2018 elections, the United States reemerged in the Iraqi scene through an intense diplomatic campaign led by U.S. envoy Brett McGurk, who played an active role in the government formation process.
Reports from Reuters and The Washington Post at the time revealed that McGurk held repeated meetings with Sunni, Shiite, and Kurdish leaders to coordinate a pro-Western alliance.
The American objective was to prevent Iran-aligned forces from seizing power; yet, those efforts failed due to strong domestic resistance and the complexity of internal balances.
Adel Abdul Mahdi’s government was formed despite Washington’s reservations, after which the U.S. began exploiting public anger by supporting the October 2019 protest movement that ultimately brought down the government.

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⚪️2021 — The Sadrist Movement’s Victory and the Failure to Form a Majority Bloc

🗂In the October 2021 elections, the Sadrist Movement won first place with 73 seats and sought to form a “national majority” government in alliance with Masoud Barzani’s Kurdistan Democratic Party and Khamis al-Khanjar’s Sovereignty Alliance.
However, the majority project failed due to disputes over sovereign positions and the resistance of the Coordination Framework—a coalition of Shiite forces and resistance factions that view U.S. influence as a threat to Iraq’s sovereignty.
The Sadrists withdrew from parliament, leaving the stage for the Coordination Framework to form the current government. Observers noted that this withdrawal weakened Washington’s undeclared project to reorganize the political blocs in line with its regional interests.

⸻

⚪️2022 — The Sadrist Withdrawal and Pressure through Saraya al-Salam

👋After the failure of the majority bloc project, the Sadrist Movement turned to its armed wing, Saraya al-Salam, as a tool of political and popular pressure.
In August 2022, Sadrist supporters stormed the Green Zone — home to the parliament and government buildings — with implicit support from then-Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, who was accused by opponents of closeness to Washington.
From a local Iraqi perspective, the storming was not a coup against the state but rather an attempt to restore balance within the political process and reject monopolization of power.
The Popular Mobilization Forces, as an official arm of the Iraqi state, intervened to protect government institutions and contain the crisis.
In the aftermath, Muqtada al-Sadr announced his withdrawal from politics, maintaining his symbolic role as an external voice of opposition.

⚪️2025 — The Upcoming Elections and the Opportunity for U.S. Influence

✌The elections scheduled for October 2025 come amid growing U.S. influence in the region following the weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon, the fall of the Syrian regime allied with the Axis of Resistance, and the rise of a Western-aligned Syrian government that sits at the same table with Israel.
Washington seeks to capitalize on this regional momentum to secure a new foothold in Baghdad by influencing electoral outcomes and post-election alliances, using economic, diplomatic, and media tools to pressure nationalist forces.
The U.S. goal is clear: to weaken parties with strategic ties to Iran and to ensure Iraq remains within the American sphere of control — even at the expense of the country’s unity and sovereign independence.

⸻

🎛Analysis

✌The facts from 2010 to 2025 show that Iraq’s political balance is fragile, oscillating between internal will and external pressures.
Post-election alliances are often built upon regional and international understandings rather than reflecting the voters’ true will.
Thus, understanding the Iraqi landscape requires an internal reading rooted in the people’s suffering and their rejection of foreign dependency, rather than through a Western lens that reduces Iraq to a mere “sphere of influence.”

✌In this context, the arrival of U.S. Special Envoy Mark Savaya in Baghdad just days before the elections raises legitimate questions about the objectives and suspicious timing of his visit.
While Washington frames it as a “visit to support the democratic process,” many observers see it as an undeclared attempt to redraw Iraq’s political balance or steer upcoming alliances in a way that preserves U.S. dominance within Iraqi institutions.

👌Appointed by President Donald Trump in October 2025 as the Special Envoy to Iraq, Savaya declared that his goal was to “rebuild trust and strengthen the strategic partnership between Baghdad and Washington.”
However, the timing of his movements—immediately before the elections—raises questions about whether his visit carries implicit pressure or veiled promises to specific candidates, or if it is a preemptive move to prevent the rise of anti-U.S. or pro-Resistance political forces.

✌This American presence during a sensitive pre-election period cannot be separated from the long history of U.S. interference in Iraqi affairs, nor from Washington’s persistent desire to keep Iraq within its strategic orbit, even through the “soft diplomacy” that hides behind slogans of democracy and stability.
Is Savaya seeking to back certain political figures? Or is he preparing the ground to impose economic and security conditions after the results are announced?
Whatever the answer, the timing alone exposes legitimate doubts about American intentions and reaffirms that Washington’s concept of “democracy” often becomes a tool to shape nations’ choices to suit its own interests.

✌This heightened political presence before the vote puts Iraq’s sovereignty to the test and revives a fundamental question: Are Iraqis truly free to choose their future, or is the decision still being made in foreign capitals?

📌Conclusion

🔹 Iraqi voters are increasingly disillusioned and frustrated with the accumulation of corruption across successive governments, the weakness of basic services, and the marginalization of citizens in state policies.
This frustration is clearly reflected in the declining voter turnout, as data indicates that nearly one-third of eligible voters have not registered with the Independent High Electoral Commission — a clear expression of lost confidence in the political process.

🔹 Nevertheless, Iraqis cannot sacrifice major sovereign issues under the weight of this legitimate anger.
Safeguarding the country’s territorial unity, protecting national wealth, and ensuring access to international waters are existential matters that must not be offered up as concessions to short-term economic demands or partisan rivalries.
The looming water crisis is a striking example of a sovereign challenge that demands a unified national stance — not submission to foreign dictates or the blackmail of regional and international powers.


🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴Israel’s Illegal Annexation of Southern Lebanon: A Crime Against Sovereignty, Humanity, and International Law

The world can no longer stay silent.
What is happening today in southern Lebanon is not just another border skirmish, nor a “security operation” as Israeli officials cynically claim — it is an active, illegal annexation. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), backed by extremist settler organizations and private military contractors, are redrawing Lebanon’s borders with concrete, bulldozers, and blood.

Near the village of Jal al-Dier, Israeli bulldozers roar day and night, carving out a massive fortified wall that snakes deep into Lebanese land. This is not merely a fence — it is a monument of colonial theft, a structure meant to erase Lebanon’s sovereignty under the guise of “security.” Behind this monstrous barrier lies another inner wall and layers of cement and soil fortifications meticulously engineered over the years to permanently seize Lebanese territory.

And here lies the scandal: this isn’t the work of the Israeli military alone. The construction is being carried out by Israeli settler companies — private civilian contractors funded and supported by far-right extremist groups. Among them is the notorious “Uri Tzafon Movement”, founded in March 2024, whose open mission is to settle southern Lebanon as “biblical land.” Since mid-2024, Uri Tzafon has been actively building and selling properties on Lebanese soil, openly violating international borders as the world looks away.

One of the key contractors in this criminal enterprise is Bardarian Brothers, a company long linked to Israeli Ministry of Defense contracts. According to WhoProfits (2018), this firm has profited for years from constructing apartheid walls, military infrastructure, and illegal settlement expansions. In 2024 and 2025, Bardarian Brothers and similar companies expanded their operations into southern Lebanon — this time to entrench an occupation that has no legal, moral, or historical justification.

But the invasion does not stop with bulldozers. It has taken on a religious and ideological face, reminiscent of the darkest colonial crusades. In March 2025, hundreds of Hasidic Jews were escorted by IDF soldiers deep into southern Lebanon to pray at what they called “a rabbi’s shrine.” The event was not a religious pilgrimage — it was a political declaration. Loud prayers proclaimed the land as “inherently Israeli,” under the watchful eyes of soldiers carrying rifles. This grotesque fusion of faith and occupation exposes the religious extremism driving the annexationist project.

These acts represent a flagrant violation of international law, particularly UN Security Council Resolution 1701, adopted on August 11, 2006, which explicitly prohibits any Israeli military presence or expansion in southern Lebanon. Even UNIFIL and multiple international observers have condemned Israel’s recent construction, describing it as a direct breach of Resolution 1701 and a threat to regional stability.

And yet, the crime deepens.
In a shocking development, Israeli real estate agencies have begun advertising and selling land parcels in southern Lebanon and Gaza — online, in plain sight. Reports by Roya News (2024) and BBC (2025) reveal how Israeli extremists and speculators are marketing occupied land as “new investment opportunities,” turning stolen soil into profit. This economic normalization of annexation is as dangerous as the walls themselves.

Israel is not merely violating Lebanon’s sovereignty; it is destroying the very foundations of international order. Every wall built, every prayer staged under military escort, every land sale signed is a blow to the global legal system meant to prevent such aggression.

Let us be clear:
This is not a security buffer.
This is not a border adjustment.
This is a crime — the deliberate, systematic annexation of another nation’s territory, enforced by the military, blessed by extremist rabbis, and financed by private companies complicit in occupation.

The IDF’s actions in southern Lebanon — from Jal al-Dier to the border hills — mirror Israel’s colonial blueprint from the West Bank to Gaza: build walls, plant settlers, claim divine right, and wait for the world’s silence.

But silence is complicity.
Human rights organizations, international courts, and every voice that still believes in justice must act — now. The International Criminal Court must open immediate investigations into Israel’s war crimes and illegal annexation efforts. The United Nations must enforce Resolution 1701 and sanction Israeli companies involved in construction on Lebanese land.

Lebanon’s sovereignty is not negotiable.
Its borders are not for sale.
And its people will not disappear behind walls built by occupiers and extremists.

The annexation of southern Lebanon is not only a Lebanese tragedy — it is a global moral test. If the world fails to stop Israel’s colonial advance today, it will have no authority to speak of human rights, peace, or law tomorrow


🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5