A scene showing an Israeli drone flying over the skies of the city of Tyre in southern Lebanon.

An Assessment of the Scene in Facts –

So that we do not remain prisoners of the question: will the war return or not?

The decisive security factor — the near-total breach of the Resistance:

It is clear that Netanyahu waged this war on us through intelligence.
He had in his hands a detailed security file exposing Hezbollah’s structure and operations—vertically and horizontally. Based on that, he directed wide-scale strikes, assassinated commanders, and destroyed critical capabilities. These blows were sufficient to deny the Resistance the use of most of its heavy capabilities, disabling years of prepared operational plans—from Radwan units to aerial and missile forces.

All this happened through intelligence means alone. Without such a breach, Netanyahu would never have dared to launch this war against a massive arsenal that could have destroyed neighborhoods in Tel Aviv and fought Israel’s ground divisions in the Galilee!

⸻

What Now?

The balance of deterrence has shifted, and the balance of power now tilts in Israel’s favor. Israel exploits this daily—through air raids, assassinations, occupation measures, and drone incursions—to keep Hezbollah under continuous fire pressure.

Then—and here we begin to prepare the answer—the threat of renewed war has become a stick Netanyahu wields daily before the Americans, aiming to disarm the Resistance.
But the Resistance remains firm: “That is the devil’s dream in paradise.”

⸻

The Result

The Resistance had been caught in a tight intelligence ambush before the war—without realizing it. From Netanyahu’s perspective, the scene was enticing:
a Resistance whose military, security, and leadership units were exposed by 80–90% to the enemy’s view!

Today, however—putting aside talk of reconstruction—at the very least, the effects of that security ambush have largely ended, or at least its scope has significantly decreased.
Using the same analogy, not all Resistance units are now within full enemy visibility, due to changes in structure, leadership shifts, and the creation of entirely new modes of resistance work.

⸻

Will Israel Launch a New War?

Based on the above, the answer seems unlikely—despite all the inflated threats forming part of a coordinated media campaign. Israel currently finds the present situation advantageous: it can keep exhausting the Resistance and maintaining it under pressure without the risks of an open war.

Yet this does not completely rule out war, especially with a figure like Netanyahu, backed by a hawkish American lobby eager to keep the Middle East simmering on the edge of conflict—or with escalating daily strikes as electoral deadlines approach inside both Israel and Lebanon.

⸻

Conclusion

We were once in a tight, near-perfect ambush—its effects have now largely ended.
We have entered an unequal equation that currently favors the enemy.
However, time and circumstance may change that balance—especially as the global war landscape grows larger and more complex, possibly driving everyone into an entirely new reality.

(By Hassan Hamza, journalist at Al-Manar)

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

A security news site from the Hebrew field: The Israeli army is preparing a "major strike" to return to combat against Hezbollah, and the details are confidential. Preparations are underway for several days of fighting.

🔴Threats, Silence, and the Calculus of Resistance: Trump, Israel, and Hezbollah at Lebanon’s Crossroads

💳In recent months, geopolitical pressure on Lebanon has reached a critical point. On one hand, Donald Trump has pressed the Lebanese state to force Hezbollah to surrender its weapons. On the other, European sources have warned that a large-scale Israeli strike on Lebanon is “only a matter of time.”

🗂This analytical article examines the following dimensions: Trump’s threat and its timing; Israel’s lack of restraint; whether a war scenario is real or exaggerated; Hezbollah’s position; why it is not responding; whether it will respond — and if it can; the Lebanese state’s reaction; the public’s mood; Iran’s potential stance if Israel strikes Lebanon and Hezbollah; and Israel’s daily violations of the ceasefire. The article adopts the perspective of the Resistance Axis, viewing Hezbollah as a legitimate deterrent against Israeli aggression.



🔢 Trump’s Threat

🌕President Trump issued a direct threat demanding Hezbollah’s disarmament, in a speech before the Israeli Knesset, where he praised the Lebanese government for its “step toward removing Hezbollah’s weapons.” This was coupled with U.S. warnings to Beirut: “Hand over Hezbollah’s weapons or we won’t intervene to stop Israel’s offensive from southern Lebanon.” The message was clear: Washington fully aligns with Israel’s security fears in the north and sees Hezbollah’s arsenal as the main obstacle to a new “peace order.”



🔢 Timing of the Threat

🌕The threat comes at a moment of relative weakness for Hezbollah after the late-2024 war, which inflicted significant losses and partial infrastructure destruction. It coincides with a U.S.-backed Lebanese plan to monopolize arms under state control (“Shield of the Nation”). Meanwhile, European warnings of an imminent Israeli attack make this the perfect window for pressure. The alignment of these factors shows the timing was intentional, not coincidental.



🔢 Israel’s Unrestrained Violations of the Ceasefire

📄Despite the November 2024 ceasefire agreement, Israeli strikes continue in southern Lebanon, with Israel maintaining five outposts on Lebanese hills. Hezbollah affirms daily that Israel engages in “continuous aggression.” This reflects a fundamental imbalance in deterrence: while Lebanon and Hezbollah are pressured to disarm, Israel violates the agreement with impunity. For Hezbollah, this validates its need to remain armed.



🔢 The Possible War Scenario: Reality or Intimidation?

🤔The possibility of a major Israeli operation in Lebanon has shifted from mere rhetoric to a tangible risk. European sources assert it is “only a matter of time.” Israeli officials warn of potential Hezbollah “provocations” that could upset regional stability. From Hezbollah’s perspective, war is undesirable unless conditions justify it — a blatant breach, major destruction, or external support. Thus, the threat is not mere exaggeration, but neither is it inevitable. It remains a credible and serious possibility.



🔢 Hezbollah’s Position on the Threat

👍Hezbollah has made clear that disarmament is non-negotiable while Israel continues its aggression. Deputy Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem declared: “These threats do not deceive us, and we will not hand over our weapons to Israel.” He added: “We will not give up the weapon that dignifies us, nor the one that protects us from our enemy.” The message is dual: Hezbollah’s weapons are a deterrent, and their existence is synonymous with Lebanon’s defense.

Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz visited the IDF's Northern Command near the Lebanese border on Sunday, accompanied by US envoy Morgan Ortagus.

🔢 Why Doesn’t Hezbollah Respond? 🇮🇷

📄The reasons are multiple:

👌 Strategic Calculations: Hezbollah knows a full-scale war with Israel, especially amid current relative weakness, would inflict massive damage on Lebanon — cities, infrastructure, and civilians.
👌 Image of the Resistance: Hezbollah seeks to appear as Lebanon’s protector, not the force dragging it into war without justification.
👌 Operational Readiness: Despite having capabilities, many were damaged; an early response could be a trap.

👌 Diplomatic Cover: By waiting, Hezbollah maintains deterrence and control of escalation. A hasty response might serve its adversaries’ agenda.



🔢 Will Hezbollah Respond — and Can It? 🌟

🔴 Will It Respond? Yes, but under conditions. If Israel crosses a red line — a major attack, large-scale destruction, or killing of resistance members or civilians — or if the Lebanese state collapses internally, Hezbollah will likely respond.
🔴 Can It? Yes. Hezbollah retains missile, infiltration, and asymmetric warfare capabilities. Qassem warned: “Rockets will rain on Israel if it resumes a wide war on Lebanon.” But the response will be calculated, not impulsive — proportionate to circumstance.



🔢 The Lebanese State’s Reaction

👋The Lebanese state finds itself trapped between external demands and domestic realities. President Joseph Aoun has called on Hezbollah to hand its weapons to the army. The Cabinet approved a disarmament policy in August 2025 and accepted $230 million in U.S. aid to strengthen the army “instead of Hezbollah.” However, implementation remains limited and contested within Lebanon’s political factions.



🔢 Popular Reaction to the Threat

🔽In southern Lebanon and Beirut’s suburbs, Hezbollah is seen as a protector and provider. Any call for its disarmament is perceived as betrayal. Should war erupt, public anger will target Israel and the state, not Hezbollah. Thus, popular support remains politically and emotionally tied to the movement.


🔢🔢 What Will Iran’s Position Be if Israel Strikes Lebanon and Hezbollah?

🌕Iran, Hezbollah’s strategic ally, will calibrate its response based on the scale and depth of Israeli aggression. If Israel inflicts major damage on Hezbollah, Iran is likely to retaliate — indirectly through its regional allies (Palestinian factions, Houthis, Iraqi militias), or directly with drones or missile strikes. Its objective: deterrence, protection of the resistance axis, and preservation of credibility. In any escalation, Iran will be part of the equation.

⸻

🔢🔢 How Israel Violates the Ceasefire Daily

🙌 Assassinations and Targeting of Resistance Leaders: Israel strikes Hezbollah figures inside Lebanon despite the declared ceasefire.
🙌 Bombing of Homes: Israeli jets and drones target civilian homes in the south and Beirut suburbs, killing innocent people.
🙌 On-Ground Occupation: Israel retains five hilltop positions within Lebanese territory despite the ceasefire and demands for withdrawal.
🙌Bulldozer and Ground Operations: Israel destroys infrastructure, uproots Hezbollah sites, and demolishes civilian rebuilding efforts in southern villages. These acts confirm that the ceasefire is not a security guarantee for Lebanon — but a fragile pause allowing Israel to erode Lebanon’s sovereignty without direct confrontation.

📌Conclusion and Outlook

🗂The current crisis over Hezbollah’s weapons, Lebanon’s sovereignty, and Israeli threats is not merely a domestic issue but a new chapter in a long struggle between those who seek to subjugate the region and those who refuse to bow.

💳True, the United States under Trump is applying unprecedented pressure on the resistance, and Israel waves the banner of war, preparing for all outcomes. Yet the balance of power is not measured by weapons alone, but by willpower and the people’s awareness deeply rooted in the culture of resistance.

👌Hezbollah has proven over decades that it does not yield to coercion, and every war imposed upon it became an opportunity to strengthen deterrence and reaffirm the equation of “dignity over aggression.” The Lebanese state, despite its political paralysis, still holds latent resilience in its institutions and diversity, and the people — scarred by wars — now fear humiliation more than they fear conflict.

🌕Thus, what seems today like an existential threat may tomorrow become a test that reshapes regional balances. War may be delayed, or it may be imposed, but one truth remains constant: Lebanon will not surrender the keys of its sovereignty.

📄As in every just struggle, truth will outlast falsehood — for truth, though buried, never dies.

👋From the womb of this threat, a new equation may yet emerge — one that restores Lebanon’s voice and role, proving again that resistance is not a temporary option but the destiny of a nation that refuses to die among its ruins, choosing instead to live upon its land, believing that victory is God’s promise to those who never bargain away their rights.


🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

Israeli extremist Rabbi Dov Lior — previously known for calling to destroy Gaza and to block humanitarian aid even on the Sabbath — appeared in a BBC documentary likely filmed around May 2025, where he made statements dehumanizing Palestinians and Arabs and calling for their “cleansing.”
When he and several settlers realized they were being recorded near the Gaza border, they attempted to stop the filming.

🔴The Accuser’s Cloak: How Colonial Propaganda Shifts the Blame

👌There’s a worn-out playbook that has been used for centuries to justify the conquest and dehumanization of a people. First, you paint them as savage, immoral, and a threat to civilization. Then, any action you take against them, no matter how brutal, becomes framed as a necessary, even righteous, measure. For decades, this has been the cornerstone of the propaganda campaign against Arabs and Muslims, a campaign that the Zionist project has weaponized with devastating effect.

👋The recent arrest of the Zionist rabbi, Dov Lior, is a moment of stark, poetic irony that should give the world pause. This is the same figure who was instrumental in spreading the horrific, and widely debunked, allegation that Hamas militants committed systematic rape on October 7th. A graphic, dehumanizing narrative was pumped into the Western media ecosystem to justify the ensuing collective punishment of Gaza. Now, the accuser stands accused, arrested on charges of raping a minor. The symbolism is crushing: the very crime he projected onto others is the one he now must answer for.

🙌This is not an isolated case of hypocrisy; it is a pattern. It reveals a political strategy that constantly points fingers elsewhere to conceal its own rot. While the Israeli government and its supporters tirelessly present themselves as a bastion of Western morality surrounded by barbarians, a steady stream of evidence reveals a deep-seated culture of criminality and impunity within their own ranks, often on a global scale.

🫶Let’s talk about the Epstein case. For years, it’s been treated as a sordid tale of a lone billionaire predator. But multiple investigative reports, including from the Miami Herald and intelligence sources cited by papers like The Times of Israel, have pointed to a far more sinister reality:

Jeffrey Epstein was likely a Mossad asset. The theory, which has never been conclusively refuted by Israeli authorities, suggests he used his blackmail operation to compromise American politicians and celebrities, gathering leverage for the Israeli state. This isn’t a wild conspiracy; it’s a plausible explanation for his mysterious immunity and his connections to figures like Ehud Barak. This is state-level human trafficking.

🌕The criminal enterprises don’t stop there. The global organ trade has seen prominent Israeli figures implicated. In 2020, a massive international crackdown led to arrests, including in Israel, for trafficking in human organs. Earlier, in 2009, the case of Rabbi Levy Izhak Rosenbaum made headlines in New Jersey; he pleaded guilty to brokering the sale of kidneys from vulnerable Israelis to wealthy Americans, a grisly trade that exposed a network operating with a chilling moral detachment.

🌕And what of the ongoing genocide in Gaza? The International Court of Justice has found it plausible that Israel is committing acts of genocide. The world has watched in real-time as neighborhoods are flattened, universities destroyed, and families wiped out using bombs supplied by Western nations. This is not a “conflict”; it is the systematic destruction of a people, their homes, their hospitals, and their future—all while their accusers cry “anti-Semitism” at anyone who dares to bear witness.

👍Which brings us to the most potent weapon in this propaganda arsenal: the reflexive cry of “anti-Semitism.” This charge is now used as a tactical shield to silence all criticism of the Israeli state. To criticize the Netanyahu government is not to hate Jews; it is to hold a nuclear-armed state to the same standards of international law we would demand of any other nation. By conflating political dissent with ancient bigotry, they attempt to morally blackmail the world into complicity. It is a card played with such cynicism that it risks draining the term of its real meaning, harming the fight against genuine anti-Semitism in the process.

📄The pattern is clear.

👌From the rape accusations used to justify a genocide, to the involvement in global sex trafficking and organ theft, the accusers are projecting a mirror image of their own actions. This is not about religion or ethnicity; it is about the corrupting nature of absolute impunity and a colonial mindset that insists the “other” is always the barbarian. It is an old, tired story. But as the handcuffs click onto the wrist of a rabbi who preached about the sins of others, perhaps more people will finally see the truth hiding in plain sight. The accuser’s cloak is beginning to fray.


🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

The map shows the areas of control in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), noting the presence of local groups allied with or neutral in Darfur and Kordofan, according to estimates by Sudans Post (October 2025).

🔴Sudan’s Silent Catastrophe: The UAE-Backed Militias, Gold Theft, and Untold Atrocities

The ongoing conflict in Sudan, marked by the brutal clashes between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the United Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia backed by the UAE, has spiraled into a humanitarian catastrophe marked by killings, rape, destruction, and theft, with grave implications for the region and international diplomacy.

Atrocities Committed by RSF Militias Backed by the UAE

Since April 2023, the RSF, heavily supported by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) militarily and financially, has been responsible for widespread atrocities in Sudan. These include summary executions, lynching, targeted killings of civilians, and large-scale sexual violence against women and girls aimed at displacement and social control. Amnesty International has documented horrific cases of gang rape, sexual slavery, and torture inflicted by RSF forces on women and girls, some as young as 15. These acts constitute war crimes and possible crimes against humanity.

The RSF's recent invasion of El Fasher—the last major city in Darfur controlled by the Sudanese army—has resulted in dozens of deaths and mass suffering. Attacks combining drone strikes and artillery shelling have decimated neighborhoods, leaving many injured and cutting off civilians from humanitarian aid. The city faces a siege exacerbating malnutrition, starvation, and displacement among an already vulnerable population, including hundreds of thousands who survived previous genocidal campaigns. Human rights groups call El Fasher "the epicentre of child suffering" with alarming rates of severe malnutrition in children under five.

The Theft of Sudan’s Gold and International Complicity

Sudan’s gold resources have become a focal point of exploitation amid the conflict. The RSF controls large portions of gold mines in Darfur, with the UAE acting as a major gold trading hub benefiting from the illicit trade. Moreover, Russia, China, and the USA are implicated as well in the extraction and smuggling networks tied to Sudan's conflict zones, where gold theft funds militias and sustains the war economy.

UAE’s Role and International Accusations

The UAE is widely accused by Sudanese authorities, international agencies, and human rights groups of providing direct military support, money, and weapons to the RSF. Sudan has formally taken the UAE to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), charging it with breaches of the Genocide Convention, as the RSF militia has committed acts amounting to genocide, murder, rape, forced displacement, and destruction of property—particularly targeting the Masalit and other non-Arab communities in West Darfur. The UAE denies all allegations but faces mounting evidence and global condemnation.

Critically, the United States is connected to this proxy dynamic by providing arms to the UAE, which in turn supplies these weapons to the RSF militia, perpetuating the conflict. Despite previous assurances, US lawmakers accuse the UAE of violating arms agreements by continuing to arm the RSF, calling for immediate cessation of all military support for the militia.

Geopolitical Agenda Behind UAE’s Involvement

The UAE’s entanglement in Sudan’s conflict is driven by its pursuit of strategic regional influence and economic interests, notably in securing access to resources such as gold and maintaining leverage over the Red Sea corridor. The conflict ensures the UAE's foothold in Sudan’s future political landscape and protects investments. By backing the RSF, the UAE counters rival regional powers and ensures its interests amid Sudan’s volatile transition.

Sudan is Africa's third-largest gold producer, but the extraction of precious metals often comes at the expense of local communities. The map shows the locations of gold deposits.

 🔴Regional Implications: Impact on Egypt and Neighboring States

The instability in Sudan has destabilizing effects on neighboring countries, particularly Egypt which shares key Nile water interests with Sudan. The conflict threatens regional security, refugee flows, and economic routes.


The prolonged war risks further fragmentation of Sudanese sovereignty, complicating diplomatic relations and collective efforts to manage shared resources and security challenges in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region.

Media Blackout and UAE’s Control Over Information

While the war has caused severe humanitarian crises, global media coverage is sparse and often muted. The UAE exerts significant control over media narratives, employing censorship, disinformation, and political pressure to shape perceptions. Investigative reports reveal that UAE-backed entities manipulate social media and block access to websites mapping territorial control in Sudan to suppress the visibility of RSF atrocities and UAE involvement.

Elon Musk’s Starlink: Internet support for Mercenaries

Adding a modern twist to the conflict, Elon Musk’s Starlink internet service is reportedly providing connectivity to RSF mercenaries, facilitating their coordination and ability to evade accountability. Humanitarian groups have condemned the potential misuse of Starlink technology in enabling militias with a digital lifeline, despite pleas from Sudanese civilians for continued internet access for survival and communication.

Prominent RSF commanders and mercenaries, such as the notorious "Abu Lolo," have gained infamy and even a form of notoriety amidst their brutal campaigns, symbolizing how these war criminals operate with impunity.

The Victims: Women, Children, and Civilians

The human toll is devastating. At least 16,000 people have been killed with millions displaced, many enduring trauma and suffering. Women and children bear the brunt with sexual violence rampant and many trapped by sieges and famine conditions. Basic necessities like food, water, and medical aid are increasingly scarce due to the RSF’s sieging and destruction of critical infrastructure.

Reflecting on International Reaction

The unfolding tragedy raises urgent questions about the international community's response to Sudan’s crisis. Despite mounting legal cases, sanctions, and public protests, there is scant effective intervention to halt the violence or hold perpetrators to account. How can global powers allow the financing and arming of militias responsible for genocide and mass atrocities? What role should multinational institutions play in protecting civilians in Sudan? And crucially, how will silence or inaction impact regional stability and global norms on human rights?

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

A report by Israel’s i24 channel about a conference of Syrian minorities held in Tel Aviv two days ago.

🤔Meeting of Normalization and Fragmentation Advocates in Tel Aviv

🌕As part of the normalization policy with the Zionist occupation and aggression entity, a group of Arabs — including Syrians and Jordanians — held a meeting attended by “Israelis” in Tel Aviv, at the invitation of the “Israeli” journalist Eddy Cohen, under the title “The Minorities Conference.” During the meeting, the participants attacked Ahmad al-Shar’a and his government and called for the establishment of separate mini-states for minorities inside Syria.

💳The conference, held the day before yesterday, October 27, was attended by around thirty people, including the Syrian Hassan Marhej, who presents himself as an expert on Middle Eastern affairs and is a regular guest on Zionist TV channels. Marhej called for secession and the creation of independent minority states within Syria.

📄Also attending was Tamim Kharmasho, a Syrian member of what is called the “Mashreq Council” in the United States, and Abd al-Ilah al-Mualla, a Jordanian residing in the U.S. who frequently visits the Zionist entity. Participating via video link was Marwan Kiwan, one of the Druze sheikhs from Sweida.

🌕From the “Israeli” side, attendees included TV journalist Zvi Yehezkeli, the Arab affairs commentator on Channel (I24); the “Israeli” historian Mordechai Kedar; Professor Moshe Cohen Elyia; and “Israeli” Knesset member Akram Hasson, who stated during the conference that “what happened to the Druze clergy in Sweida is similar to what the Jews suffered under the Nazis.” He asserted that all institutions in Israel would use their full power to combat what he called “Takfiri terrorism.”

🔽Hasson also emphasized the need to establish a “global institution for all minorities in the Middle East” that could influence the United Nations and international criminal courts to prosecute those he described as “terrorists.”

💬According to reports, the so-called “Minorities Conference” in Tel Aviv issued a set of decisions and recommendations, viewed as a dangerous plan for regional fragmentation, including the following:

👋 Establishing a regional liaison office composed of political figures and activists representing various groups in the region, to be funded by private donations from those interested in minority affairs in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and “Israel.”
👋 The office will coordinate efforts and monitor shared developments related to the protection of minority rights.
👋 Adopting a legal firm in “Israel” directly linked to the liaison office, tasked with preparing monthly reports to be submitted to the Prime Minister’s Office, the Knesset Security Committee, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, along with urgent reports in case of critical political or field developments.
👋 Creating an official media platform representing the liaison office, which would issue a biweekly bulletin on the conditions of minorities in the region and establish professional partnerships with major “Israeli” newspapers and media institutions to promote transparency and “reliable” information exchange.
👋 Launching a special fund to receive individual and collective complaints from members of minorities, ensuring complete confidentiality of senders and the protection of their data — to document and address violations within a clear legal and humanitarian framework.
👋 Calling for the fight against all forms of ideological, religious, and political extremism and its takfiri organizations, such as ISIS, Jabhat al-Nusra, and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, which currently rules Syria under the leadership of (Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, formerly) Ahmad al-Shar’a, as these pose a persistent threat to minority rights and religious freedoms in the region.

🗒The conference affirmed its support for the right of the region’s communities to freely determine their destiny, in accordance with legal and international frameworks, ensuring the adoption of local governance systems that respect each group’s religious, cultural, and intellectual particularities — while simultaneously fostering economic, scientific, and social development, and promoting the values of justice and equal citizenship.

👌Source: The Arab National List (Lā’iḥat al-Qawmī al-ʿArabī)


🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴Trump’s New Envoy, in His Image, Addresses Iraq Using Local Dialect

🔽Mark Savaya, the newly appointed envoy of U.S. President Donald Trump to Iraq, published a statement on X (formerly Twitter) in both Arabic and English, using Iraqi dialect in much of the text.

📄In his statement, the infamous drug dealer praised what he described as “important steps” taken by Iraq’s leadership over the past three years to correct the political and economic course. He affirmed that Iraq is beginning to reclaim its sovereignty, working to reduce foreign influence, restrict weapons to state control, and open its doors to global investment.

🌕Echoing the American rhetoric toward Lebanon—and amid a wave of “partitioning the already partitioned” that stretches from Sudan to Syria and now Iraq—Savaya appeared to be stripping Iraq of its tools of resistance to this wave. He called for weapons to be confined to the hands of the state, stressing Washington’s rejection of any armed groups operating outside government authority. He claimed Iraq’s stability and prosperity depend on unifying security forces under a single banner representing all Iraqis.

👍At the end of his statement, Savaya used Trump’s famous slogan in Iraqi dialect, saying: “Let’s make Iraq great again,” a clear invocation of Trump’s campaign slogan “Make America Great Again”—without clarifying what kind of “greatness” he was referring to. Is it foreign-controlled monarchy? The era of repeated coups? Or the bloody Ba’athist period that tore Iraq apart?

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴“Ceasefire” in Gaza? A façade while occupation and strikes persist

On 10 October 2025 a ceasefire took effect between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, brokered with strong backing from Donald Trump. The truce was hailed as a relief for Gaza’s beleaguered civilian population.
Yet within days, Gaza’s media office claimed that Israel had already violated the deal 47 times, resulting in the deaths of more than 125 Palestinians and injuries to 143 more. These violations included direct gunfire against civilians, shelling, arrests — precisely what a ceasefire is supposed to halt.
What this highlights is not simply a lapse, but a predictable pattern: Israel signs a ceasefire while reserving the “right” to strike at will — thus turning the truce into a thin veneer of peace, rather than real protection for Palestinians.



Consequences for Gaza and wider regional fault-lines

The consequences for Gaza’s civilians are brutal: heavy air-and-ground operations resume under the pretext of “enforcing” or “responding” to alleged violations. For example, Israeli forces conducted massive strikes killing over 125 Palestinians, including children and women, even as the ceasefire was claimed to be active.

On the Lebanese front, the pattern is identical. Even under a ceasefire with Hezbollah since November 2024, Israel has carried out near-daily strikes in southern Lebanon, “almost a year later” according to AP. The Lebanese case offers a blueprint: a “less-fire” rather than a cease­-fire, allowing Israel to maintain strikes without full-scale war.

Thus Palestinians in Gaza should recognise that the current truce may also be a mirage: the stronger party retains military advantage and uses the ceasefire as diplomatic cover, not as a real commitment to respect human life and international law.

Israel and the US: trust broken, leverage abused

Donald Trump may have championed the Gaza truce, but his posture is revealing: when Israeli soldiers were reportedly killed in Rafah, Trump publicly declared that Israel “should hit back” — effectively green-lighting further Israeli strikes under the truce.
When the guarantor of the deal gives permission for one side to resume large-scale violence, the notion of a ceasefire becomes hollow. The US-Israel axis once again demonstrates it cannot be trusted to protect Palestinian lives. Israel’s history of violating ceasefires both in Gaza and Lebanon (many times over) is well-documented.


Why this matters now
• The civilian population of Gaza remains vulnerable — a truce that fails to stop strikes is simply a pause before a new escalation.
• The use of the Lebanon model suggests Israel will continue to strike while maintaining a nominal ceasefire — Gaza’s situation could replicate that pattern.
• Palestinians and their supporters must view the current deal with skepticism: until Israel honours the terms (cessation of strikes, withdrawal, lifting of blockades) the truce is not a step toward peace but a continuation of occupation under different conditions.
• The United States’ role as mediator is compromised: support for Israel’s right to strike undercuts any impartiality and leaves Palestinians at the mercy of Israel’s military calculus.


In conclusion

The ceasefire announced in early October cannot be seen as a genuine protection for Palestinians in Gaza until it is respected by the stronger party — Israel — and enforced by the guarantor — the United States. As history in Lebanon shows, Israel signs agreements then acts unilaterally under the guise of self-defence, while Palestinians pay the human cost. The current truce threatens to become another such episode.
Israel’s actions show that the truce is not a road to justice, but a tactical pause. Palestinians need genuine guarantees, accountability, and real withdrawal of forces — none of which appear forthcoming. Israel and the US cannot be counted on as honourable arbiters when their own interests and military logic dominate the field.

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴Nuclear Shadows: Trump’s Testing Threat and the Fracturing Global Order


📄Introduction: A Return to the Brink

👌In the wake of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent tests of the Poseidon nuclear torpedo and the Burevestnik cruise missile, former U.S. President Donald Trump has unleashed his own political shockwave. Declaring on his Truth Social platform that he has instructed the “Department of War” to “start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis,” Trump has reignited global anxieties that had long been subdued by international law and decades of diplomacy.

👋This is more than political theater. It’s a signal that nuclear deterrence is again becoming the defining logic of great-power rivalry—a regression that threatens the fragile architecture of nonproliferation and arms control painstakingly built since the Cold War.


⚪️I. The Shifting Regional and Global Balance

🔽Trump’s announcement reverberates through a world already reconfiguring its power centers.

🌕 Russia, locked in confrontation with the West over Ukraine and sanctions, sees nuclear posturing as leverage to reaffirm its superpower status.

🌕 China, rapidly expanding its strategic arsenal and modernizing its test facilities in Lop Nur, views this as validation of its long-term deterrence doctrine.

👍 Iran, closely aligned with both Moscow and Beijing, interprets the U.S. stance as hypocrisy—proof that Western powers selectively apply the rules of nonproliferation.

✌In this shifting equilibrium, smaller powers—especially in the Middle East and East Asia—are caught between fear and opportunism. The notion that nuclear capability equals security is once again gaining dangerous traction.


⚪️II. Violating the Legal Architecture: A Breach of International Norms

👋Under international law, Trump’s declaration challenges several key frameworks:

🗒 The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), adopted in 1996, bans “any nuclear weapon test explosion or any other nuclear explosion” worldwide. While the U.S. signed the CTBT, it has never ratified it; thus, Trump’s proposed testing would not technically be “illegal” under U.S. law—but would be a direct affront to its spirit and to global consensus.

🗒 The Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) obliges nuclear-weapon states to pursue disarmament and refrain from actions that undermine the goal of nonproliferation. Renewed U.S. testing would erode confidence in the NPT regime, embolden threshold states, and justify similar actions by rivals.

💳By hinting at resuming tests, Trump effectively signals a willingness to dismantle what remains of the post–Cold War nuclear restraint framework.


⚪️III. Nonproliferation at Risk: The Domino Effect

🙌The ripple effects could be devastating. If the United States resumes nuclear testing, Russia and China will likely follow, citing parity and deterrence. This could lead to:

👌 The collapse of the CTBT’s moral authority, rendering it a dead letter.

👌 A renewed global arms race, especially among emerging powers seeking recognition and leverage.

👌 Greater instability in volatile regions like the Middle East, where Israel and Iran’s nuclear standoff could escalate under the logic that “everyone else is testing.”

👌 Asia-Pacific tensions intensifying as North Korea uses U.S. precedent to justify its own nuclear ambitions.

🚪In short, the nonproliferation order—already weakened by selective compliance—could unravel entirely.

⚪️IV. Likely Responses: Strategic Calculations from Major Powers

🌕 China will likely condemn Trump’s declaration publicly while quietly accelerating its own modernization and possible testing preparations, framing its actions as “defensive parity.”

🌕 Russia will interpret the U.S. stance as validation of its own nuclear assertiveness. Moscow will likely escalate rhetoric and testing activity, deepening strategic synchronization with Beijing.

👍 Iran, already under intense scrutiny for its nuclear program, will use the moment to challenge Western double standards—arguing that if global powers disregard restraint, so too may regional actors seeking deterrence.

🔽This triangular response could crystalize a Beijing–Moscow–Tehran axis of nuclear defiance, complicating so called ‘Western diplomacy ‘ and further fragmenting the global security order. However , it will save and unite the allied countries within this axis of nuclear defiance .


📌Conclusion: A Dangerous Unraveling

🗂Trump’s call to resume nuclear testing is more than political showmanship—it’s a test of the entire global nonproliferation regime. It risks transforming deterrence into destruction, diplomacy into irrelevance, and competition into catastrophe.

🔢If unchecked, this renewed era of nuclear assertiveness could dissolve decades of cautious progress and return the world to an age where the flash of a test site in Nevada or Novaya Zemlya signals not strength, but the failure of civilization to learn from its own perilous past.

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴A resignation rooted in shame: How Israel’s military top lawyer quit after the leaked rape-video of a Palestinian detainee

🤔 In a development that lays bare the dysfunction and moral peril of the Israeli detention system in Gaza’s fallout, Major General Yifat Tomer-Yerushalmi — the military advocate general of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) — resigned on 31 October 2025 after admitting that she authorised the leak of video footage showing soldiers abusing a Palestinian detainee at the detention facility at Sde Teiman detention camp.
Her decision to step down illuminates more than an internal scandal — it underscores how a system of detention and deprivation, largely hidden from view, has become not only abusive but politically toxic for Israel.



⚪️The video case: what happened and why it matters

💳The incident at Sde Teiman emerged last year, in August 2024, when a CCTV-leak aired on Israel’s Channel 12 showing what the media described as a gang-rape of a Palestinian detainee by Israeli reservist soldiers. According to Al Jazeera’s explainer, the footage shows soldiers pulling a blindfolded prisoner aside, then surrounding him with riot shields while obscuring their actions. Medical evidence reported by Israeli media (such as Haaretz) shows the victim suffered a ruptured bowel, severe anal and lung injuries, broken ribs.
Though the formal indictment did not charge the soldiers with rape — only “severe abuse” — many rights observers said the downgrade signals impunity.

🎙Tomer-Yerushalmi admitted she authorised the leak “in an attempt to counter false propaganda against military law-enforcement authorities.” But her admission has been seized by Israeli hard-right politicians as betrayal: for them, the leak served the enemy, and her resignation is being framed as meritless.

⚪️The victim and the human cost

👍Although the detainee remains anonymous in public accounts, the gravity of his abuse sets the tone. A Palestinian from Gaza held at Sde Teiman, stripped of identity before the world, suffered sexualised violence, torture, injuries requiring hospitalisation, and the ignominy of being used as a spectacle. In these dark moments we see what many human-rights organisations warn: that Palestinian detainees, far from being shielded by legal protections, are rendered vulnerable to the worst abuses of power.

🎞The fact that a top legal official felt compelled to leak the video suggests two parallel regimes: one of detention and abuse, the other of cover-up and damage-control. The victim, without voice and name in the public domain, remains a symbol of the thousands who languish in custody facing such risks.

⚪️Patterns of abuse: beyond one video

🌕This is not an isolated incident. Investigations and reporting suggest that at Sde Teiman — and in the broader Israeli detention apparatus for Palestinians — abuse, humiliations, torture and sexual violence have become alarmingly common.
👋 A detailed Al Jazeera report noted that bodies of more than a hundred Palestinians returned by Israel bear clear signs of abuse: blindfolds, bound hands, execution-style gunshots to the head.
👋 One UN rights-office press release states at least 75 Palestinians have died in Israeli detention since 7 October 2023, many following torture or denial of medical treatment.
👋 Testimonies published by Le Monde described one detainee at Sde Teiman who saw carrots forced into fellow prisoners’ anuses and other “rape with iron batons” acts.
👋 The tags on body-bags returned to Gaza often begin with “ST” (for Sde Teiman), which local medical staff say indicates those remains passed through that facility.
👋 The Guardian says at least 135 mutilated Palestinian bodies returned to Gaza had come from Sde Teiman; some showed gunshots in the head, rope around the neck, hands still tied behind backs.

📄With respect to children: though detailed breakdowns of how many minors suffered abuse in Israeli detention remain unclear in open sources, the general context of thousands of Palestinians held under Israeli control — including under administrative detention, without trial — means children are inherently exposed. For example, one broad data set reports that more than 10,800 Palestinians (including 450 children) were in Israeli prisons in the broader Gaza/West Bank context as of late 2025.

⚪️Why this is a public-relations and legitimacy disaster for Israel

🌕For Benjamin Netanyahu and his government, the affair is more than an embarrassment — it is arguably one of the worst self-inflicted PR disasters in recent years. When a top military legal officer admits that a video of soldiers abusing a detainee had to be leaked to correct “false propaganda”, the message is clear: abuse is real, cover-up is institutional, the rule of law is broken.
In the international arena, Israel presents itself as a democracy committed to human rights and the rule of law. Yet this affair undermines that claim violently. Foreign governments, international organisations and media see a pattern: sexual violence in custody, deaths in detention, bodies returned with signs of torture. The U.S. State Department explicitly said that “there ought to be zero tolerance for sexual abuse or rape of any detainee.”
Right-wing Israeli leaders who stormed the base where the accused soldiers were held, and who defend the notion of “our soldiers acting for our security” undercut any meaningful accountability.
Thus Netanyahu’s calculation: the incident taints Israel’s global standing, gives fuel to narratives of Israeli impunity, strengthens calls for war-crimes investigations, undermines alliances and creates leverage for Israel’s enemies and critics.

⚪️Legal ramifications — the leak and the abuse

🎞The leak: Tomer-Yerushalmi’s admission that she authorised the leak means she faces a criminal investigation by the Military Police into disclosure of classified material. The fact that the leak was ostensibly to expose wrongdoing does not in the Israeli military legal framework exempt her from liability.
👋The abuse itself: The soldiers involved were initially arrested and indicted for “severe abuse” but not rape — a key legal point since many observers argue the facts support sexual assault charges. Under Israeli military law and international law (including the Geneva Conventions, Rome Statute of the ICC) acts such as torture, sexual violence against detainees, summary execution, are war crimes or crimes against humanity when part of a policy or widespread practice. The evidence of signs of torture on dozens of bodies, and the systemic nature of the documented abuse, raise the possibility of such crimes.
Should independent investigation proceed, the legal risks for Israel are enormous: individual criminal liability for perpetrators, command-responsibility liability for senior officers, state responsibility under international human-rights law, and reputational damage that could trigger sanctions or international adjudication.

⚪️Why the prison-system must be scrutinised

🫶The bigger problem is the detention system itself: facilities like Sde Teiman, operating under conditions of near-total impunity, for Palestinians — many held without charge or trial; many held incommunicado; many with no access to independent oversight. Reports say detainees were held blindfolded, shackled for long hours, forced into stress positions, subjected to sexualised violence and even execution-style killing.
The system is deeply asymmetrical: Palestinian detainees are held under military rule, Israeli soldiers essentially police themselves, and far-right political pressure obstructs investigations. The incident of the Top Legal Officer leaking a video because conventional channels were not trusted speaks volumes.
For victims, every day in custody becomes a risk of becoming the next “video scandal” or the next body returned with a number but no name.

⚪️International reaction and human-rights perspective

👌The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) has warned of systematic torture and ill-treatment of Palestinian detainees, stating that Israel must “urgently end” these practices.
👌 Human-rights organisations such as Physicians for Human Rights – Israel, the Euro‑Mediterranean Human Rights Monitor and others called for independent international investigations into the conditions at Sde Teiman and other sites — pointing out clearly the signs of torture, sexual assault, and execution after detention.
👌 The U.S., in August 2024, publicly stated it had reviewed the footage and insisted Israel must investigate fully and hold perpetrators accountable.
👌 International media and expert commentary frame this as more than criminal abuse — a crisis of
🌕legitimacy: a democracy at war with its own rule-of-law when it comes to occupied detainees.

⚪️Sympathising with the victims: the human toll

👍We must pause and acknowledge the human face here. The Palestinian detainee at Sde Teiman who was raped and beaten is one among many whose suffering remains invisible. Families wondering if their missing son’s body will ever be returned, or if it will be numbered and unnamed. Mothers who identify corpse-bags by scars, soldiers brackets or blindfold remnants. The psychological torture of not knowing. The fact that children — 450 children reportedly among detainees in Israeli jails late 2025. The systemic failure to protect the vulnerable, to ensure legal rights and humane treatment, turns detention into another front of violence.
🌕The victims are not “security risks” or faceless combatants: they are individuals, stripped of dignity. Their suffering demands that we not only analyse the event but demand accountability, transparency and justice.

📌Conclusion

🚪The resignation of Yifat Tomer-Yerushalmi is far more than an internal legal matter. It is an alarm bell that the Israeli military-detention system has moved past isolated scandal into structural crisis. A top lawyer intervened to leak evidence, recognising the system would not otherwise address what happened. The abuse, the lack of accountability, the political interference, the catalogue of returned bodies with torture signs — all point to a system that has abandoned the rule of law when it comes to Palestinian detainees.
For Israel, this affair is arguably one of its worst PR and legitimacy disasters in decades: it undermines the moral high ground, opens the door to war-crimes scrutiny, and erodes internal cohesion. For Palestinians, it means that the detention system remains a place of terror, not justice. The victim whose rape video finally surfaced is just one among many suffering in the shadows.
Unless Israel, under domestic and international pressure, undertakes a genuine independent investigation, reforms the detention regime, and holds accountable those responsible from the top to the bottom, this resignation will mark not a turning point, but a moment in a continuing spiral of abuse.
Analyzing it now is urgent; acting upon it is imperative.


🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

Scenes from the Haredi protests against the conscription law in Jerusalem on the 30th of last month.


🔴A House Divided: How the Haredi Draft Crisis is Tearing Israel Apart

🎞You’ve seen the videos. Black-garbed men flooding the highways of Jerusalem, setting dumpsters on fire, clashing with police in scenes that feel more like a civil uprising than a protest. This isn't Hamas or Hezbollah. This is an internal front exploding at the worst possible time for Israel. The long-simmering crisis over military service for the ultra-Orthodox, the Haredim, has boiled over, and it’s threatening to shatter Netanyahu’s government, reshape Israeli society, and undermine the national unity so desperately needed in a time of war.

👌Let’s break down how we got here.

💳Who Are the Haredim? The "God's Army"

🌕First, a quick primer. The Haredim (literally, "those who tremble" before God) are the most theologically conservative stream of Judaism. They live in tightly-knit communities, often speak Yiddish as a primary language, and separate themselves from what they see as the corrupting influence of secular modern life. For them, the study of Torah (Jewish religious texts) is the highest possible calling—the very purpose of Jewish existence.

🌕This isn't just a lifestyle choice; it's a theological imperative. They believe that their devotion and study are what sustain and protect the Jewish people, even more than any army. As their placards at protests read: "We're protecting Israel by praying." In their worldview, they are the spiritual IDF, and their yeshivas (study halls) are the front lines.

⚪️The Unspoken Bargain: Why No Draft?

🗒So, how did they get an exemption from the military, a sacred duty for most Israelis? It goes back to the state's founding in 1948. Israel’s first prime minister, David Ben-Gurion, exempted a few hundred elite yeshiva students to help rebuild the great centers of Jewish learning destroyed in the Holocaust. It was a temporary deal.

🤔But temporary has a way of becoming permanent. The Haredi community grew exponentially, and the exemption became a cornerstone of their identity and survival. Politically, their unified voting bloc made them kingmakers. Successive governments, dependent on their support, kept kicking the can down the road, perpetuating a system where a growing segment of the population doesn't serve in the military, doesn't study a core secular curriculum, and largely doesn't participate in the workforce to the same degree. The "unspoken bargain" was this: you support us in politics, and we protect your way of life.

⚪️The Breaking Point: War and a Court Deadline

📄Then came October 7th. The massive call-up of 300,000+ reservists, the deep sense of national burden, and the sight of endless funerals shattered the pre-war status quo. The sense of "we're all in this together" made the Haredi exemption feel increasingly untenable to the secular majority.

🔽Simmering resentment turned into a full-blown constitutional crisis when Israel's Supreme Court intervened. With the government failing to pass a new law, the court ruled that without a legal framework for the exemption, the state could no longer funnel funds to yeshivas whose students dodge the draft. Even more critically, it ordered the government to begin enforcing the draft on Haredi men, with arrests for draft-dodging to begin.

🌕This was the match that lit the fuse. The recent protests, some drawing hundreds of thousands, bringing Jerusalem to a standstill, are a direct response to these first, symbolic arrests. The message from the Haredi leadership is absolute and uncompromising: "Not one boy."

⚪️The Core of the Opposition: It's About Survival

🌕Why such ferocious opposition? It’s not simply about not wanting to serve. For the Haredim, this is an existential fight.

🔢 Theological Threat: Immersion in the secular, co-ed environment of the IDF is seen as a direct threat to their pious way of life. They fear it will lead to intermingling, a dilution of faith, and exposure to ideas that contradict their core beliefs.

🔢 The End of Study: They view full-time Torah study as a non-negotiable commandment.
Forcing young men into the army means taking them out of the yeshiva, which they equate with spiritual death for the individual and the nation.

🔢 Cultural Assimilation: This is the biggest fear. The army is Israel's great melting pot. For the Haredim, it's a melting pot that erases their distinct identity. They see conscription as the first step toward the forced secularization of their community, a tool to dismantle their world.

🌕The Domino Effect: Netanyahu, the War, and a Government on the Brink

✌This crisis is a political nightmare for Benjamin Netanyahu, and it hits on three simultaneous fronts.

1⃣ His Government's Survival: Netanyahu's coalition depends on Haredi parties. If he pushes for a draft law that satisfies the Supreme Court and the public, his Haredi partners will likely bring down the government. If he gives in to the Haredim, his more secular coalition partners, like Benny Gantz’s National Unity party, have threatened to quit. He is trapped in a lose-lose scenario.

2⃣ The War Effort: This is the most damaging aspect. While Israel is fighting a multi-front conflict in Gaza and facing daily skirmishes with Hezbollah in the north, its society is visibly fracturing. It projects an image of profound weakness and disunity to enemies like Iran and Hamas, who can simply sit back and watch Israel tear itself apart from within. The notion of a nation united in a fight for its survival is crumbling.

3⃣ Public Morale: For the soldiers on the front lines and the reservists who have put their lives on hold for months, the sight of a large, able-bodied community not sharing the burden is a bitter pill to swallow. It fuels a deep-seated anger that is radicalizing both sides—secular Israelis against the Haredim, and as we've seen with the violent protests, Haredi youth against the state itself.

📌The Bottom Line:

🌕Israel is at a historic crossroads. The post-1948 status quo is broken. The war with Gaza exposed the fault lines, and the Supreme Court has forced a decision. Netanyahu is trying to perform an impossible balancing act, but the ground is shaking beneath his feet. He can either preside over a fundamental reshaping of the relationship between religion and state in Israel, or he can watch his government collapse. Either way, the days of the old bargain are over. The question now is whether Israel can forge a new one without tearing itself apart in the process.

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴Urgent – Israel Announces Attack on Southern Lebanon Despite Ceasefire, Hezbollah Responds

🌕Israel issued an urgent warning to residents of the village of Aita al-Shaab (Al-Zatt) in southern Lebanon, demanding evacuation of buildings near sites allegedly used by Hezbollah. The warning included a safety perimeter of no less than 500 meters around the threatened buildings, citing potential targeting of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure in the near future.

👍Hezbollah responded with an official message to the Lebanese leadership, reaffirming its commitment to protecting Lebanese sovereignty and maintaining security and stability. The party rejected any attempts by the Israeli enemy or external forces to drag Lebanon into new negotiations that would impose conditions on the resistance. Hezbollah emphasized that the ceasefire declared on November 27, 2024, did not prevent Israel from continuing its violations, and that exclusive control over weapons would not be imposed on the resistance under external pressure.

📄Hezbollah concluded its statement by asserting its legitimate right to defend Lebanon against any Zionist aggression, calling for national unity to confront threats and safeguard national sovereignty.

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5