🔴Sharm El-Sheikh Summit: Diplomacy as Spectacle, Justice as Casualty

In October 2025, the Egyptian resort town of Sharm El-Sheikh hosted a high-profile summit co-chaired by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and U.S. President Donald Trump. Marketed as a breakthrough for peace, the summit brought together over 20 world leaders to witness the signing of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. But beneath the polished optics and diplomatic fanfare, the event exposed the contradictions of modern statecraft—where performance often replaces accountability, and peace is repackaged without justice.


The Missing Players: A Ceasefire Without Consent

While the agreement was formally signed by Israeli and Palestinian representatives, neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor Hamas leadership attended the summit in person. Hamas, the dominant political and military force in Gaza, was notably absent from the stage, despite reports of indirect involvement through backchannel negotiations. This absence raised serious questions about the legitimacy and durability of the agreement. Can peace be brokered without the full participation of those most affected?



Trump’s Spotlight and the Politics of Provocation

President Trump delivered three major speeches during the summit and surrounding events—including one at the Israeli Knesset. His remarks were a mix of self-congratulation, geopolitical bravado, and controversial praise. He lauded Netanyahu—who faces war crimes charges at the ICC—and even urged Israeli President Isaac Herzog to pardon him for domestic corruption allegations.

In his summit address, Trump encouraged more Arab states to join the Abraham Accords, despite widespread regional opposition. He congratulated Netanyahu for choosing “victory” over prolonged warfare, stating:

“If you would have gone on for three, four more years – keep fighting, fighting, fighting – it was getting bad. It was getting heated… Bibi, you’re going to be remembered for this far more than if you kept this thing going, going, going – kill, kill, kill.”

He also recounted how Netanyahu frequently requested advanced weaponry:

“We make the best weapons in the world… Bibi would call me so many times – ‘Can you get me this weapon, that weapon?’ Some of them, I never heard of.”

These comments, while framed as diplomatic anecdotes, underscored the depth of U.S. military support for Israel—support that has helped turn much of Gaza into rubble. Over the past two years, Washington has provided more than $21 billion in aid to its Middle East ally.



Washington’s War, Tel Aviv’s Guns

The war on Gaza, though executed by Israeli forces, bore the unmistakable fingerprints of American strategy. The U.S. supplied weapons, intelligence, and diplomatic cover, including repeated vetoes at the UN Security Council that blocked ceasefire resolutions. Trump’s peace roadmap, unveiled earlier in the year, demanded the disarmament of Palestinian resistance and prioritized Israeli security guarantees—effectively sidelining Palestinian sovereignty.



Humanitarian Rhetoric vs. Structural Violence

“A new and beautiful day is rising and now the rebuilding begins,”

Trump declared, praising regional leaders for helping cement the truce. But his optimism clashed with the grim reality on the ground. Gaza remains devastated—its infrastructure shattered, its population displaced, and its future uncertain.

The summit’s humanitarian language—“restoring dignity,” “rebuilding Gaza,” “ensuring stability”—rang hollow. UN agencies were present, but their role was largely logistical. The political framing remained in the hands of those who had either enabled or ignored the violence.



Regional Rejection: The Audience Isn’t Buying It

Across the Arab world, reactions to the summit ranged from skepticism to outright rejection. Many saw it as a theatrical attempt to whitewash a war that had already claimed thousands of lives. The Palestinian cause, long treated as a bargaining chip in regional politics, was once again reduced to a backdrop for international posturing.

⚪️From Headlines to Rubble: The Cost of Spectacle

The Sharm El-Sheikh summit may have produced headlines, but it did not produce justice. It revealed the widening gap between diplomatic performance and lived reality. While leaders shook hands and declared victory, the people of Gaza returned to the ruins—reminded once again that peace without justice is just another form of violence.


🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

📍Title: “Gaza’s Shadow Armies: How Abu Shabab and Israel’s Mercenaries Became Predators in the Ruins”
 
Introduction
When the bombs dim and the ceasefire is inked, few will write the names of the mercenary militias that emerged in Gaza’s ruins. But those shadow forces — led by Abu Shabab and organized around local clans and private contractors — left scars deeper than shattered buildings. They fought Hamas, looted aid, tortured Palestinians, and enriched themselves on the suffering. Behind the spectacle of war, they became spoilers of any peace. This article goes deep, citing direct testimony and documents, to trace who they are, how they operated, and what might become of them in the fragile postwar order.
 
Origins: From Clan Networks to Armed Factions
Abu Shabab — the Bedouin Smuggler Turned Militia Leader
Yasser “Abu Shabab” is perhaps the most visible face of Gaza’s insurgent internecine warfare. He hails from the Bedouin communities around Rafah and is said to have roots in smuggling, clan patronage, and the local network of tunnels that long linked Gaza, Egypt, and Sinai. Over the course of 2024, as Hamas was weakened by Israeli operations, Abu Shabab’s group recruited fighters by offering salaries and presenting itself as a “restorative” force against Hamas’ brutality (Aawsat).¹
Abu Shabab denies direct collaboration with the Israeli army, yet multiple reports allege that his forces operate in areas under Israeli control, carrying out tasks that align with Israel’s tactical interests.² His militia is often called the Popular Forces or Fuerzas Populares in some Spanish-language media, estimated to number a few hundred fighters inside eastern Rafah and adjacent zones (Fuerzas Populares wiki).³
The Clan Militias and Criminal Networks
Behind Abu Shabab stand families and clans long embedded in Gaza’s social structure. Among the most powerful:
• Doghmush clan — one of Gaza’s most notorious and heavily armed families. Its networks have been affiliated variably with Fatah, Hamas, Islamist groups and criminal enterprises over time.⁴
• Al-Majayda (Astal/Majayda) — in Khan Younis, known for smuggling influence and local muscle.
• Hilles (aka Helles / Khalas) — historically aligned with Fatah, with recruiting and neighborhood influence in Gaza City and Shuja‘iyya.⁵
• Various collaborator cells and informant networks scattered across Gaza, often overlapping with these clans.
These clans had experience in arms, checkpoints, criminal trade and smuggling long before the war. What changed is that the intensity of war gave them space to expand into semi-state security actors.
 
Funding, Arms & Alleged Sponsorship
Self-financing Through Chaos
One of the more verifiable sources of funding was the diversion and theft of humanitarian aid, fuel, medical supplies and food convoys. In a shattered environment with minimal policing, armed groups could intercept trucks or checkpoints and extract value. Aid workers and local civilians repeatedly testified to this phenomenon. A World Central Kitchen employee said: “When the supplies arrive, they try to steal.”⁶
Those revenues allowed these groups to pay fighters, buy weapons on the black market, and maintain logistics.
Accusations of Israeli Arms, Support and Toleration
Investigative media and humanitarian analysts claim that Israel, while publicly denying involvement, has in some zones allowed — and in certain cases enabled — the operations of these militias as local proxies. For instance:
• Under the argument that “aid must be secured better,” Israel supported the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), a private entity that used for-profit security firms in aid logistics. Critics say that-control over aid channels gave leverage to armed actors.⁷
• Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly defended arming anti-Hamas Palestinian clans, including what reporters called Abu Shabab’s group, as a way to reduce Israeli casualties.⁸
• Some armed groups allegedly received radios, communications gear and protection for movements in areas where the IDF still held dominance.

📍However, the Israeli government has formally denied systematic support for mercenary forces, and no publicly confirmed official record has emerged of large arms shipments under state sanction. The real relationship is opaque and likely clandestine.
The USAID Internal Report: Casting Doubt on the “Hamas stole all the aid” Narrative
In July 2025, Reuters published findings of an internal U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) analysis. In 156 reported incidents of lost or stolen U.S.-funded aid supplies (between October 2023 and May 2025), “no reports alleging Hamas benefited”were found (Reuters).⁹ The report noted that at least 44 of those incidents were “either directly or indirectly” caused by Israeli military operations, and the majority could not be reliably attributed to any actor (Reuters).¹⁰
This matters greatly: the claim that “Hamas steals all the aid” has been one of the key justifications used to legitimize militarized aid channels and proxy groups. The USAID study complicates the narrative by emphasizing that some diversion may stem from armed predators in the aid chain itself or from conflict conditions induced by Israeli actions.
 
Wartime Role: Aid Theft, Fighting Hamas, Price Graft & Torture
Controlling Aid Routes & Checkpoints
Abu Shabab’s men and allied clan militias occupied key junctions and border-adjacent corridors, demanding “security fees” or authority to examine and reroute convoys. Their presence at crossings and along main supply lines allowed them to intercept, delay or siphon shipments. Humanitarian organizations repeatedly warned that the mere presence of armed actors near aid routes increases the risk of diversion.
 
Looting & Diversion of Aid
Multiple reports (including from U.N. and NGOs) document cases in which trucks were looted, supplies were taken to local warehouses, and food and medicine redistributed via armed intermediaries. Some trucks never reached their intended recipients. Investigative journalists have tied certain high-volume thefts to powerful clans allied with Abu Shabab. The United Nations has described some of these acts as “systematic looting.”¹¹
Fighting Hamas & Rival Clashes
These militias did not merely opportunistically loot. In contested zones they clashed with Hamas fighters, arrested suspected Hamas operatives, and attempted to carve out zones of influence. In certain sectors where Israel withdrew or held partial control, local militias acted as auxiliary security forces. The internal split led to violent confrontations: for example, after the ceasefire Hamas forces killed 32 members of a “gang” in Gaza City in a crackdown on armed groups seen as destabilizing rivals (Reuters).¹² Hamas claimed the gang was not part of Abu Shabab’s network, but such operations reflect the internal power struggle.¹³
Extortion, Price Inflation & Black Market Control
By controlling chokepoints of fuel, food and medicine, armed groups could impose steep markups and gatekeeping fees — further impoverishing an already desperate population. The smaller the supply, the higher the desperation, and the greater the leverage of whoever controlled the channel.
Torture, Detention, Killings
Credible local testimonies and humanitarian sources accuse Abu Shabab’s forces and allied groups of arbitrary arrests, beatings and torture — especially of those suspected of collaborating with Hamas or resisting their rule. In contested neighborhoods, locals speak of night raids, secret detention sites, and interrogations overseen by militias.¹⁴
Perhaps more damning is the fact that when Hamas regained contested areas, it too carried out public executions and reprisals against alleged collaborators (among them members of these militias). But that does not exonerate the militia abuses; rather, it reveals how brutal and personalized this war became inside Gaza.
 
Weapons & Firepower
These militias relied mostly on small arms and light weapons:
• Assault rifles (AK derivatives, automatic rifles)
• Machine guns and PK-type general-purpose machine guns

📍 RPGs and anti-tank launchers mounted on pickup trucks (“technical” style)
• Light mortars and grenade launchers
• Communications gear, radios, and improvised armor in some cases
They generally did not field large-scale artillery or heavy armored vehicles like tanks, which remain in the domain of state militaries. Still, their arsenal was enough to contest control of neighborhoods and hold checkpoints against diminished or dispersed Hamas cadres.
There are multiple allegations of Israeli tolerance — and even indirect supply — of heavier gear to these groups. But definitive, publicly verified records of direct Israeli arms provision are sparse. The ambiguity is part of the strategy.
 
Post-Ceasefire Prospects: Integration, Expulsion, or Extermination?
Hamas Retribution and Reassertion
From the very first hours of the ceasefire, Hamas security forces launched operations to kill or neutralize rival militias. Authorities report killing 32 members of a “gang” in Gaza City as part of their push to reestablish order (Reuters).¹² The regime is showing it intends to forcibly eliminate those it considers traitors or spoilers.¹³
Hamas has also reportedly targeted senior associates of Abu Shabab: one senior aide was “liquidated” during the post-ceasefire campaign, and the hunt for Abu Shabab continues (Reuters).¹²
Integration or Controlled Disarmament
Some militia members may seek or be offered integration into reconstituted security forces — police roles, local enforcement jobs or shadowing Hamas structures — but this depends heavily on political bargains, accountability mechanisms, and the balance of power. Some lower-level fighters might be offered leniency in exchange for disarmament.
Flight, Refuge or Asylum
One open question is whether Abu Shabab and his forces will be allowed to flee into Israel or to Israeli-controlled zones. Some collaborated elements may try to seek refuge, bargaining their utility to Israeli intelligence or military planners. But granting them sanctuary is politically toxic. Local reporting suggests some factions have already retreated eastward alongside withdrawing Israeli forces.¹⁵
It is unlikely – though not impossible – that the militias will remain intact and unassailable inside Gaza. Their staying power depends on external backing, local alliances, and Israel’s continued tolerance.
The Danger of Frozen Militias
If neither full purge nor integration takes place, these militias might ossify into perpetual spoilers — controlling black markets, imposing predatory taxes and undermining institutions. A fragile reconstruction process under such shadow power brokers would struggle to build legitimacy or stable governance.
 
Conclusion

In the rubble and terror of Gaza’s war, Abu Shabab and his network of mercenaries stand as a dark mirror: not merely as opponents of Hamas, but as scavengers of chaos. They fought, looted, tortured, and graded their profits on the suffering of civilians. The alliances that tolerated and perhaps enabled them — whether local, regional or even Israeli — will bear a heavy historical burden.
The post-ceasefire period is a dangerous turning point. If Hamas fails to decisively dismantle these militias, or if Israel continues to shield them, the next Gaza may not be one rebuilt from scratch but one ruled by a new class of warlords. In a land already emptied of stability, the shadows may outlast the ceasefire.
 

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴What Happened After the Truce?

Following the partial truce agreement in 2023, the UAE began relocating some mercenaries to camps in Eritrea and along the African coast.
Others remained in Yemen, especially in oil-rich coastal areas.
Today, reports suggest the UAE is preparing to use them to protect future projects in Bab al-Mandeb and Socotra Island.

“Abu Dhabi doesn’t intend to abandon its mercenaries, but is repurposing them for long-term security and commercial missions.”
— Middle East Eye, 2024

Meanwhile, the fate of hundreds of African mercenaries used as “war fuel” remains unknown—they haven’t returned to their countries nor received their dues.

Conclusion

The war in Yemen wasn’t just a political or sectarian conflict—it became a profitable business.

While Yemenis starved, mercenary firms made profits, and sponsoring states built influence on the blood of innocents.
The war turned into an open market for paid killing, run by nations that buy blood and sell slogans.

“Mercenaries in Yemen are not just tools of war, but a mirror of how far the world has sunk when armies are rented to kill the poor.”

— Le Monde Diplomatique, 2023

Erik Prince’s residency visa for the UAE, showing that he was, at the time, employed by Assurance Management Consultancy. Some personal information has been redacted for privacy.

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

#Iran

🔰 America is a major partner in the Gaza war… and you are the terrorists

📍 The Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution this morning in his meeting with the heroes who won medals and winners in international scientific Olympiads

🔢 Trump’s visit to occupied Palestine:
👌 He tried with some empty words and comical actions to raise the morale of the desperate Zionists, but they are already desperate. The 12-day war dealt them a slap they did not expect.
✌️ His going was only to try to raise their morale, and his words were directed at desperate officials.

🔢 America and its partnership in the war on Gaza:
👌 He himself admitted: “We worked together in Gaza.” Their resources and capabilities were put in service of the Zionist entity to drop them on the heads of the defenseless people of Gaza.
✌️ They say they are fighting terrorism, but more than 20,000 children, infants, and newborns were martyred. These were not terrorists.
🫶 You are the ones who produced ISIS and kept it to use later. Real terrorism is America itself.

🔢 Assassinations and nuclear bombing:
👌 They boast about assassinating Iranian scientists like Tehranchī and Abbasi, but their knowledge cannot be assassinated.
👋 They claim to have destroyed Iran’s nuclear industry, but this is just an illusion.
✌ Their interventions in Iran’s nuclear industry are rejected, wrong, tyrannical and unjust.

🔢 Deal or coercion?
👌 Trump says he is a supporter of the Iranian people and wants to negotiate, but he is lying. American sanctions against the Iranian people are not support, but clear hostility.
✌️ Any deal imposed by force is not a deal, but coercion. The Iranian people will not submit to dictates and will not be subjected to the will of others.

🔢 Message to the United States:
👌 If you are really capable, go and calm the streets in your country, where millions came out chanting against Trump, and return them to their homes.


🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴Ashes of Arrogance: Israel Revives the History of Desecrating Corpses by Burning Yahya al-Sinwar’s Body

🗂When reports surfaced suggesting that Israel was considering burning the body of Yahya al-Sinwar — the Hamas leader it claims to have killed — the human conscience was shaken before the political sphere even reacted. The idea is not only a blatant religious violation but also an act of deliberate humiliation — an attempt to degrade the enemy even after death.

💳In Islam, burning the body is not merely a religious crime; it is an effort to erase dignity, identity, and faith all at once.

📄Today, Israel repeats these same practices as it continues to withhold al-Sinwar’s body, refusing to release it even during the most recent prisoner exchange negotiations, as reported by Al Jazeera and The Guardian (2025). Israeli officials have hinted at the possibility of burning his remains to prevent the establishment of a “symbolic shrine,” revealing a deep-seated impulse to humiliate the Other through his dead body.

⚪️A Historical Precedent in Corpse Desecration

👌Islamic and modern history alike provide many examples of authorities attempting to erase symbols of opposition by defiling their remains.

👋In the 8th century, Zayd ibn Ali — the grandson of Imam Husayn — faced a similar fate after his revolt against the Umayyad regime. Yusuf ibn Umar al-Thaqafi, then governor of Iraq, ordered his exhumed body to be crucified for four years. Under Caliph Hisham ibn Abd al-Malik, historical accounts indicate that Zayd’s corpse was burned and his ashes scattered in the Euphrates River, all to prevent his grave from becoming a shrine symbolizing resistance and steadfastness.

👌What Israel is doing today is nothing more than the repetition of tyrants’ tactics throughout history — those who believed they could erase memory by burning bodies. Just as the Umayyads failed to erase Zayd ibn Ali’s legacy, Israel will fail to erase the symbolic power of Yahya al-Sinwar, who has become a lasting emblem of Palestinian resistance even in death.

⚪️Modern Examples

🤔This act recalls numerous cases in modern history where regimes sought to obliterate traces of their opponents, fearing that their graves might become symbols of defiance and endurance:
🌕 In Bolivia, the army, under CIA direction, secretly buried the body of Ernesto “Che” Guevara near an airstrip alongside his executed comrades.
🌕 In Chile, after the military coup, the authorities threw the corpses of dissidents from aircraft or buried them in remote locations to conceal their fate.
🌕 In Iraq during the Ba‘ath regime, the government used even more brutal methods, such as dissolving opponents in acid or burying them in secret mass graves.
Notable examples include:
🌕 Ayatollah Muhammad Baqir al-Sadr, the great Shi‘a scholar, who was buried secretly in Najaf. The body of his sister Amina al-Sadr (Bint al-Huda), executed alongside him, was never found.
• Muhammad Hadi al-Sabiti, a prominent leader of the Islamic Da‘wa Party, who was kidnapped in Beirut; reports indicate Saddam Hussein’s regime dissolved his body in acid to conceal all traces.
🌕 Abd al-Karim Qasim, the Iraqi leader whose remains were never recovered after his execution was broadcast on state television.
🌕 In more recent times, the United States adopted a similar method in 2011, when President Barack Obama ordered the body of Osama bin Laden to be dumped at sea, claiming it was done “in accordance with Islamic traditions.”
In truth, Islam neither throws bodies into the sea nor erases their traces. It mandates burial with dignity — even for enemies. Whether Obama intended to conceal the truth or humiliate the Muslim world, the message was the same: some bodies are deemed unworthy of burial, and some faiths are not respected.

⚪️The Symbolic Case of Yahya al-Sinwar

✌After his death, the Israeli army reportedly severed al-Sinwar’s index finger under the pretext of conducting DNA tests to verify his identity — despite hair or nail samples being sufficient.

👋This act carries a deep symbolic insult: the index finger is the one used by Hamas members when raising their hands to signify tawḥīd (“There is no god but God”) — during official ceremonies, oaths, or moments of victory.

✌Thus, the body is no longer merely a war casualty but a religious and political symbol that Israel seeks to erase — an attempt to kill the meaning after killing the man.

⚪️Psychological Warfare and the Humiliation of Memory

👌The humiliation of a corpse terrifies the living more than bullets do. When burial is denied, psychological peace is denied as well. The message is clear: “Even death will not protect you.” In Islamic and Arab culture, burial is not merely a religious ritual — it is an acknowledgment of human dignity and a gesture of respect for the soul before God.

🫶But symbols cannot be buried or burned. What is burned turns into ashes — and ashes become seeds of pride and defiance. Just as the ashes of Zayd ibn Ali became an eternal symbol of resistance against tyranny, Israel’s attempt to burn Yahya al-Sinwar’s body will only sanctify his memory and root it deeper in the collective consciousness of the Arab and Islamic worlds.


🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

🔴The Informal Power Network and Trump’s Personal Diplomacy

Donald Trump’s statements in his recent interview with TIME magazine reveal the contours of an informal power network that bypasses traditional U.S. government institutions and shapes aspects of Washington’s Middle East policy.

During the 2024 campaign, Trump remained in contact with Benjamin Netanyahu, who visited the Mar-a-Lago resort in July of that year. TIME reports:

“It was an open secret that Netanyahu was rooting for Trump’s return to the White House as President Joe Biden pressured him to halt the onslaught on Gaza.”

Speaking about Israeli strikes on Hezbollah and Syria, Trump interrupted to say:

“All of those attacks were done under my auspices, you know, with Israel doing the attacks—with the pagers and all that stuff.”

This statement suggests the existence of a broader network of interests beyond the formal administration—a deep network involving financiers, media figures, arms companies, and security contractors, along with regional political allies who saw Trump as a guarantor of their interests, particularly in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.

Since his first term, Trump has managed foreign policy like a business deal. He handed the Middle East file to his son-in-law Jared Kushner without an official title, while Ivanka Trump represented Washington at sensitive events such as the embassy opening in Jerusalem.

“The most important thing is they have to respect the President of the United States. The Middle East has to understand that. It’s almost the President more than the country.” —

Trump to TIME.

This approach created a form of personal diplomacy parallel to institutional channels, driven more by trust and interests than by protocol. Through it, Trump maintained communications with regional leaders even outside of office, paving the way for what was later called the “peace deal.”

At its core, this appears to be more than the influence of one man—it is a structure of informal power that preserves its interests through individuals and networks, not through administrations.


🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

A scene showing an Israeli drone flying over the skies of the city of Tyre in southern Lebanon.

An Assessment of the Scene in Facts –

So that we do not remain prisoners of the question: will the war return or not?

The decisive security factor — the near-total breach of the Resistance:

It is clear that Netanyahu waged this war on us through intelligence.
He had in his hands a detailed security file exposing Hezbollah’s structure and operations—vertically and horizontally. Based on that, he directed wide-scale strikes, assassinated commanders, and destroyed critical capabilities. These blows were sufficient to deny the Resistance the use of most of its heavy capabilities, disabling years of prepared operational plans—from Radwan units to aerial and missile forces.

All this happened through intelligence means alone. Without such a breach, Netanyahu would never have dared to launch this war against a massive arsenal that could have destroyed neighborhoods in Tel Aviv and fought Israel’s ground divisions in the Galilee!

⸻

What Now?

The balance of deterrence has shifted, and the balance of power now tilts in Israel’s favor. Israel exploits this daily—through air raids, assassinations, occupation measures, and drone incursions—to keep Hezbollah under continuous fire pressure.

Then—and here we begin to prepare the answer—the threat of renewed war has become a stick Netanyahu wields daily before the Americans, aiming to disarm the Resistance.
But the Resistance remains firm: “That is the devil’s dream in paradise.”

⸻

The Result

The Resistance had been caught in a tight intelligence ambush before the war—without realizing it. From Netanyahu’s perspective, the scene was enticing:
a Resistance whose military, security, and leadership units were exposed by 80–90% to the enemy’s view!

Today, however—putting aside talk of reconstruction—at the very least, the effects of that security ambush have largely ended, or at least its scope has significantly decreased.
Using the same analogy, not all Resistance units are now within full enemy visibility, due to changes in structure, leadership shifts, and the creation of entirely new modes of resistance work.

⸻

Will Israel Launch a New War?

Based on the above, the answer seems unlikely—despite all the inflated threats forming part of a coordinated media campaign. Israel currently finds the present situation advantageous: it can keep exhausting the Resistance and maintaining it under pressure without the risks of an open war.

Yet this does not completely rule out war, especially with a figure like Netanyahu, backed by a hawkish American lobby eager to keep the Middle East simmering on the edge of conflict—or with escalating daily strikes as electoral deadlines approach inside both Israel and Lebanon.

⸻

Conclusion

We were once in a tight, near-perfect ambush—its effects have now largely ended.
We have entered an unequal equation that currently favors the enemy.
However, time and circumstance may change that balance—especially as the global war landscape grows larger and more complex, possibly driving everyone into an entirely new reality.

(By Hassan Hamza, journalist at Al-Manar)

🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

A security news site from the Hebrew field: The Israeli army is preparing a "major strike" to return to combat against Hezbollah, and the details are confidential. Preparations are underway for several days of fighting.

🔴Threats, Silence, and the Calculus of Resistance: Trump, Israel, and Hezbollah at Lebanon’s Crossroads

💳In recent months, geopolitical pressure on Lebanon has reached a critical point. On one hand, Donald Trump has pressed the Lebanese state to force Hezbollah to surrender its weapons. On the other, European sources have warned that a large-scale Israeli strike on Lebanon is “only a matter of time.”

🗂This analytical article examines the following dimensions: Trump’s threat and its timing; Israel’s lack of restraint; whether a war scenario is real or exaggerated; Hezbollah’s position; why it is not responding; whether it will respond — and if it can; the Lebanese state’s reaction; the public’s mood; Iran’s potential stance if Israel strikes Lebanon and Hezbollah; and Israel’s daily violations of the ceasefire. The article adopts the perspective of the Resistance Axis, viewing Hezbollah as a legitimate deterrent against Israeli aggression.



🔢 Trump’s Threat

🌕President Trump issued a direct threat demanding Hezbollah’s disarmament, in a speech before the Israeli Knesset, where he praised the Lebanese government for its “step toward removing Hezbollah’s weapons.” This was coupled with U.S. warnings to Beirut: “Hand over Hezbollah’s weapons or we won’t intervene to stop Israel’s offensive from southern Lebanon.” The message was clear: Washington fully aligns with Israel’s security fears in the north and sees Hezbollah’s arsenal as the main obstacle to a new “peace order.”



🔢 Timing of the Threat

🌕The threat comes at a moment of relative weakness for Hezbollah after the late-2024 war, which inflicted significant losses and partial infrastructure destruction. It coincides with a U.S.-backed Lebanese plan to monopolize arms under state control (“Shield of the Nation”). Meanwhile, European warnings of an imminent Israeli attack make this the perfect window for pressure. The alignment of these factors shows the timing was intentional, not coincidental.



🔢 Israel’s Unrestrained Violations of the Ceasefire

📄Despite the November 2024 ceasefire agreement, Israeli strikes continue in southern Lebanon, with Israel maintaining five outposts on Lebanese hills. Hezbollah affirms daily that Israel engages in “continuous aggression.” This reflects a fundamental imbalance in deterrence: while Lebanon and Hezbollah are pressured to disarm, Israel violates the agreement with impunity. For Hezbollah, this validates its need to remain armed.



🔢 The Possible War Scenario: Reality or Intimidation?

🤔The possibility of a major Israeli operation in Lebanon has shifted from mere rhetoric to a tangible risk. European sources assert it is “only a matter of time.” Israeli officials warn of potential Hezbollah “provocations” that could upset regional stability. From Hezbollah’s perspective, war is undesirable unless conditions justify it — a blatant breach, major destruction, or external support. Thus, the threat is not mere exaggeration, but neither is it inevitable. It remains a credible and serious possibility.



🔢 Hezbollah’s Position on the Threat

👍Hezbollah has made clear that disarmament is non-negotiable while Israel continues its aggression. Deputy Secretary-General Sheikh Naim Qassem declared: “These threats do not deceive us, and we will not hand over our weapons to Israel.” He added: “We will not give up the weapon that dignifies us, nor the one that protects us from our enemy.” The message is dual: Hezbollah’s weapons are a deterrent, and their existence is synonymous with Lebanon’s defense.

Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz visited the IDF's Northern Command near the Lebanese border on Sunday, accompanied by US envoy Morgan Ortagus.

🔢 Why Doesn’t Hezbollah Respond? 🇮🇷

📄The reasons are multiple:

👌 Strategic Calculations: Hezbollah knows a full-scale war with Israel, especially amid current relative weakness, would inflict massive damage on Lebanon — cities, infrastructure, and civilians.
👌 Image of the Resistance: Hezbollah seeks to appear as Lebanon’s protector, not the force dragging it into war without justification.
👌 Operational Readiness: Despite having capabilities, many were damaged; an early response could be a trap.

👌 Diplomatic Cover: By waiting, Hezbollah maintains deterrence and control of escalation. A hasty response might serve its adversaries’ agenda.



🔢 Will Hezbollah Respond — and Can It? 🌟

🔴 Will It Respond? Yes, but under conditions. If Israel crosses a red line — a major attack, large-scale destruction, or killing of resistance members or civilians — or if the Lebanese state collapses internally, Hezbollah will likely respond.
🔴 Can It? Yes. Hezbollah retains missile, infiltration, and asymmetric warfare capabilities. Qassem warned: “Rockets will rain on Israel if it resumes a wide war on Lebanon.” But the response will be calculated, not impulsive — proportionate to circumstance.



🔢 The Lebanese State’s Reaction

👋The Lebanese state finds itself trapped between external demands and domestic realities. President Joseph Aoun has called on Hezbollah to hand its weapons to the army. The Cabinet approved a disarmament policy in August 2025 and accepted $230 million in U.S. aid to strengthen the army “instead of Hezbollah.” However, implementation remains limited and contested within Lebanon’s political factions.



🔢 Popular Reaction to the Threat

🔽In southern Lebanon and Beirut’s suburbs, Hezbollah is seen as a protector and provider. Any call for its disarmament is perceived as betrayal. Should war erupt, public anger will target Israel and the state, not Hezbollah. Thus, popular support remains politically and emotionally tied to the movement.


🔢🔢 What Will Iran’s Position Be if Israel Strikes Lebanon and Hezbollah?

🌕Iran, Hezbollah’s strategic ally, will calibrate its response based on the scale and depth of Israeli aggression. If Israel inflicts major damage on Hezbollah, Iran is likely to retaliate — indirectly through its regional allies (Palestinian factions, Houthis, Iraqi militias), or directly with drones or missile strikes. Its objective: deterrence, protection of the resistance axis, and preservation of credibility. In any escalation, Iran will be part of the equation.

⸻

🔢🔢 How Israel Violates the Ceasefire Daily

🙌 Assassinations and Targeting of Resistance Leaders: Israel strikes Hezbollah figures inside Lebanon despite the declared ceasefire.
🙌 Bombing of Homes: Israeli jets and drones target civilian homes in the south and Beirut suburbs, killing innocent people.
🙌 On-Ground Occupation: Israel retains five hilltop positions within Lebanese territory despite the ceasefire and demands for withdrawal.
🙌Bulldozer and Ground Operations: Israel destroys infrastructure, uproots Hezbollah sites, and demolishes civilian rebuilding efforts in southern villages. These acts confirm that the ceasefire is not a security guarantee for Lebanon — but a fragile pause allowing Israel to erode Lebanon’s sovereignty without direct confrontation.

📌Conclusion and Outlook

🗂The current crisis over Hezbollah’s weapons, Lebanon’s sovereignty, and Israeli threats is not merely a domestic issue but a new chapter in a long struggle between those who seek to subjugate the region and those who refuse to bow.

💳True, the United States under Trump is applying unprecedented pressure on the resistance, and Israel waves the banner of war, preparing for all outcomes. Yet the balance of power is not measured by weapons alone, but by willpower and the people’s awareness deeply rooted in the culture of resistance.

👌Hezbollah has proven over decades that it does not yield to coercion, and every war imposed upon it became an opportunity to strengthen deterrence and reaffirm the equation of “dignity over aggression.” The Lebanese state, despite its political paralysis, still holds latent resilience in its institutions and diversity, and the people — scarred by wars — now fear humiliation more than they fear conflict.

🌕Thus, what seems today like an existential threat may tomorrow become a test that reshapes regional balances. War may be delayed, or it may be imposed, but one truth remains constant: Lebanon will not surrender the keys of its sovereignty.

📄As in every just struggle, truth will outlast falsehood — for truth, though buried, never dies.

👋From the womb of this threat, a new equation may yet emerge — one that restores Lebanon’s voice and role, proving again that resistance is not a temporary option but the destiny of a nation that refuses to die among its ruins, choosing instead to live upon its land, believing that victory is God’s promise to those who never bargain away their rights.


🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

Israeli extremist Rabbi Dov Lior — previously known for calling to destroy Gaza and to block humanitarian aid even on the Sabbath — appeared in a BBC documentary likely filmed around May 2025, where he made statements dehumanizing Palestinians and Arabs and calling for their “cleansing.”
When he and several settlers realized they were being recorded near the Gaza border, they attempted to stop the filming.

🔴The Accuser’s Cloak: How Colonial Propaganda Shifts the Blame

👌There’s a worn-out playbook that has been used for centuries to justify the conquest and dehumanization of a people. First, you paint them as savage, immoral, and a threat to civilization. Then, any action you take against them, no matter how brutal, becomes framed as a necessary, even righteous, measure. For decades, this has been the cornerstone of the propaganda campaign against Arabs and Muslims, a campaign that the Zionist project has weaponized with devastating effect.

👋The recent arrest of the Zionist rabbi, Dov Lior, is a moment of stark, poetic irony that should give the world pause. This is the same figure who was instrumental in spreading the horrific, and widely debunked, allegation that Hamas militants committed systematic rape on October 7th. A graphic, dehumanizing narrative was pumped into the Western media ecosystem to justify the ensuing collective punishment of Gaza. Now, the accuser stands accused, arrested on charges of raping a minor. The symbolism is crushing: the very crime he projected onto others is the one he now must answer for.

🙌This is not an isolated case of hypocrisy; it is a pattern. It reveals a political strategy that constantly points fingers elsewhere to conceal its own rot. While the Israeli government and its supporters tirelessly present themselves as a bastion of Western morality surrounded by barbarians, a steady stream of evidence reveals a deep-seated culture of criminality and impunity within their own ranks, often on a global scale.

🫶Let’s talk about the Epstein case. For years, it’s been treated as a sordid tale of a lone billionaire predator. But multiple investigative reports, including from the Miami Herald and intelligence sources cited by papers like The Times of Israel, have pointed to a far more sinister reality:

Jeffrey Epstein was likely a Mossad asset. The theory, which has never been conclusively refuted by Israeli authorities, suggests he used his blackmail operation to compromise American politicians and celebrities, gathering leverage for the Israeli state. This isn’t a wild conspiracy; it’s a plausible explanation for his mysterious immunity and his connections to figures like Ehud Barak. This is state-level human trafficking.

🌕The criminal enterprises don’t stop there. The global organ trade has seen prominent Israeli figures implicated. In 2020, a massive international crackdown led to arrests, including in Israel, for trafficking in human organs. Earlier, in 2009, the case of Rabbi Levy Izhak Rosenbaum made headlines in New Jersey; he pleaded guilty to brokering the sale of kidneys from vulnerable Israelis to wealthy Americans, a grisly trade that exposed a network operating with a chilling moral detachment.

🌕And what of the ongoing genocide in Gaza? The International Court of Justice has found it plausible that Israel is committing acts of genocide. The world has watched in real-time as neighborhoods are flattened, universities destroyed, and families wiped out using bombs supplied by Western nations. This is not a “conflict”; it is the systematic destruction of a people, their homes, their hospitals, and their future—all while their accusers cry “anti-Semitism” at anyone who dares to bear witness.

👍Which brings us to the most potent weapon in this propaganda arsenal: the reflexive cry of “anti-Semitism.” This charge is now used as a tactical shield to silence all criticism of the Israeli state. To criticize the Netanyahu government is not to hate Jews; it is to hold a nuclear-armed state to the same standards of international law we would demand of any other nation. By conflating political dissent with ancient bigotry, they attempt to morally blackmail the world into complicity. It is a card played with such cynicism that it risks draining the term of its real meaning, harming the fight against genuine anti-Semitism in the process.

📄The pattern is clear.

👌From the rape accusations used to justify a genocide, to the involvement in global sex trafficking and organ theft, the accusers are projecting a mirror image of their own actions. This is not about religion or ethnicity; it is about the corrupting nature of absolute impunity and a colonial mindset that insists the “other” is always the barbarian. It is an old, tired story. But as the handcuffs click onto the wrist of a rabbi who preached about the sins of others, perhaps more people will finally see the truth hiding in plain sight. The accuser’s cloak is beginning to fray.


🔵Link to the article in Arabic

🖋@observer_5

The map shows the areas of control in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), noting the presence of local groups allied with or neutral in Darfur and Kordofan, according to estimates by Sudans Post (October 2025).

🔴Sudan’s Silent Catastrophe: The UAE-Backed Militias, Gold Theft, and Untold Atrocities

The ongoing conflict in Sudan, marked by the brutal clashes between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the United Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia backed by the UAE, has spiraled into a humanitarian catastrophe marked by killings, rape, destruction, and theft, with grave implications for the region and international diplomacy.

Atrocities Committed by RSF Militias Backed by the UAE

Since April 2023, the RSF, heavily supported by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) militarily and financially, has been responsible for widespread atrocities in Sudan. These include summary executions, lynching, targeted killings of civilians, and large-scale sexual violence against women and girls aimed at displacement and social control. Amnesty International has documented horrific cases of gang rape, sexual slavery, and torture inflicted by RSF forces on women and girls, some as young as 15. These acts constitute war crimes and possible crimes against humanity.

The RSF's recent invasion of El Fasher—the last major city in Darfur controlled by the Sudanese army—has resulted in dozens of deaths and mass suffering. Attacks combining drone strikes and artillery shelling have decimated neighborhoods, leaving many injured and cutting off civilians from humanitarian aid. The city faces a siege exacerbating malnutrition, starvation, and displacement among an already vulnerable population, including hundreds of thousands who survived previous genocidal campaigns. Human rights groups call El Fasher "the epicentre of child suffering" with alarming rates of severe malnutrition in children under five.

The Theft of Sudan’s Gold and International Complicity

Sudan’s gold resources have become a focal point of exploitation amid the conflict. The RSF controls large portions of gold mines in Darfur, with the UAE acting as a major gold trading hub benefiting from the illicit trade. Moreover, Russia, China, and the USA are implicated as well in the extraction and smuggling networks tied to Sudan's conflict zones, where gold theft funds militias and sustains the war economy.

UAE’s Role and International Accusations

The UAE is widely accused by Sudanese authorities, international agencies, and human rights groups of providing direct military support, money, and weapons to the RSF. Sudan has formally taken the UAE to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), charging it with breaches of the Genocide Convention, as the RSF militia has committed acts amounting to genocide, murder, rape, forced displacement, and destruction of property—particularly targeting the Masalit and other non-Arab communities in West Darfur. The UAE denies all allegations but faces mounting evidence and global condemnation.

Critically, the United States is connected to this proxy dynamic by providing arms to the UAE, which in turn supplies these weapons to the RSF militia, perpetuating the conflict. Despite previous assurances, US lawmakers accuse the UAE of violating arms agreements by continuing to arm the RSF, calling for immediate cessation of all military support for the militia.

Geopolitical Agenda Behind UAE’s Involvement

The UAE’s entanglement in Sudan’s conflict is driven by its pursuit of strategic regional influence and economic interests, notably in securing access to resources such as gold and maintaining leverage over the Red Sea corridor. The conflict ensures the UAE's foothold in Sudan’s future political landscape and protects investments. By backing the RSF, the UAE counters rival regional powers and ensures its interests amid Sudan’s volatile transition.