It’s possible there is more evidence to back Amir Azimi’s assessment of Iranian leadership.[1] If so, I’d like to see it. In the absence of that evidence, my reading is that the evidence supporting this assessment is much too thin.
[1] Amir Azimi, “Who is making decisions in Iran?” British Broadcasting Corporation, April 24, 2026, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm29m732vgno

To read the Republican spin is to catch the faint whiff of a false flag. Even some of Donald Trump’s opponents support his bulletproof ballroom and funding for the Department of Homeland Security.

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2026/04/26/can-this-really-be-happening-again-00892125

It seems like Donald Trump has a choice between his unseemly affection for Vladimir Putin and his war on Iran: “‘We see how courageously and ‌heroically the Iranian people are fighting for their independence and sovereignty,’ Putin told [Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas] Araghchi, saying he hoped they could get through a ‘difficult period’ and that peace would prevail.”[1]
[1] Al Jazeera, “Putin praises Iranian ‘courage’ as Tehran’s foreign minister visits Russia,” April 27, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/27/iran-foreign-minister-in-russia-for-putin-talks